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EUR/GBP breaks down amid EU political uneaseSentiment in Europe remained pessimistic for the second consecutive day. Concerns about the continent's political future were underscored by the EUR/GBP reaching its lowest level since August 2022, alongside a sharp decline in French bonds and stocks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year French bonds increased by another 10 basis points as bond prices fell for the fourth straight day. EUR/GBP breaks down Given the breakdown in the EUR/GBP below key support around the pivotal 0.85 area, I will be monitoring for a potential ret-test of this area from underneath in the days ahead, before the trend potentially resumes. Specifically, the area between 0.8480 to 0.8500 is now the most important resistance zone to watch for a potential trade. Why are traders so concerned about EU’s political situation? Investors are hesitant to buy into the latest dip due to the uncertainty surrounding the potential coalition government that could be led by President Macron and far-right Prime Minister Jordan Bardella. Additionally, the European Commission is expected to place France in an Excessive Deficit Procedure next week, raising concerns about France's fiscal sustainability and adherence to EU fiscal rules, adding further risk to the markets. While European politics and their economic impact evolve gradually, the European elections suggest a future focus on border security and industrial policies, potentially shifting EU cooperation towards more domestic agendas. So far, sovereign debt tensions have been mostly confined to France, but today, we've seen minor turmoil spreading to a few southern European countries. A rightward shift across Europe could heighten market uncertainty, making Europe less predictable and attractive to investors. It is crucial for European and national leaders to address these concerns promptly. Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com Follow me on twitter: x.com
by FOREXcom
EURGBP eyes support ahead of UK CPI printEURGBP initially began the year in a fairly well-defined trading range but showed bullish impetus after breaking out of the consolidation pattern. However, bullish momentum appeared lacking, as the pair struggled to maintain a steady directional move and has since shown a penchant towards mean reversion. 0.8635 proved too high to handle for the pair previously but the most recent bullish advance fell short of that, finding resistance around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) before heading lower. The current spate of selling is showing signs of fatigue as the pair attempts to trade higher after four successive days of losses. The pair could find itself propped up by trendline support, which caught the bottoms in April and earlier on in May. Keep an eye out for UK CPI tomorrow where there is an expectation of a notable move lower from the prior month. With such optimism, comes the potential for disappointment if the actual data fails to reach the low levels anticipated which may see sterling lift in the moments after the print. April data has the potential to surprise to the upside as this is the month when annual price rises and index-linked increases are implemented. On the other side of the equation, if the CPI data prints inline or lower than consensus estimates, EURGBP may rise off support as markets clear the way for a Bank of England cut sooner rather than later.
by Xayah_trading
The Euro: Navigating Politics, Geopolitics, and SocietyThe euro, as the second most traded currency globally, is heavily influenced by the political stability of the European Union (EU) and global geopolitical dynamics. The stability of the euro is linked to the political environment within the EU, where recent events like the rise of EU-skeptic parties and political turbulence in key member states, such as France and Italy, have introduced uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Ukraine and economic policies from major economies like the US and China, also significantly impact the euro. Additionally, the rise of Islam in Europe, due to immigration and higher birth rates among Muslim communities, has influenced elections and political discourse, contributing to the success of far-right parties. These sociopolitical shifts further complicate the euro's stability by introducing political instability and policy uncertainty. Currently, the pound-to-euro exchange rate has surged, driven by EU political instability and the cautious approach of the European Central Bank (ECB) towards inflation and interest rates. The euro's future will be shaped by a complex interplay of internal political cohesion, global geopolitical tensions, and sociocultural dynamics.
Short
by signalmastermind
2
EURGBP H4 | Bearish Momentum?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.8495, which is a pullback resistance and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 0.8447, a swing-low support level. The stop loss will be placed at 0.8540, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
EUR/GBP Rate at 21-Month Low Post-European Parliament ElectionsEUR/GBP Rate at 21-Month Low Post-European Parliament Elections Investors will begin the week in a state of uncertainty regarding the outlook of Europe's political landscape. The four-day European Parliament elections concluded on Sunday. According to Reuters, the results showed a significant gain for eurosceptic-nationalists, who have displaced liberals and greens. Additionally, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French Parliament, calling for early legislative elections later this month after losing to Marine Le Pen's far-right party in the European Union elections. All this puts pressure on the structure of the European Union, weakening the euro's value. As shown by the EUR/GBP chart, trading on the currency markets opened on Monday around the 0.8465 level—a price not seen since August 2022. According to the technical analysis of EUR/GBP today: → The price broke below the critical support level of 0.85, which had been in place since 2023; → In terms of price dynamics since autumn 2022, the market is in a downward trend (as indicated by the red channel). The bearish break of 0.85 reinforces this trend; → The median line of the channel could serve as a consolidation zone below 0.85, confirming the relevance of the channel; → The 0.85-0.853 zone may provide significant resistance in the future if bulls attempt to rectify the situation. In a negative scenario for the market (e.g., a political crisis within Europe), the EUR/GBP price could potentially reach the lower boundary of the indicated channel. Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
European instability causing weakness in the euroAfter the EU Parliamentary elections, there is a rise of nationalism and protectionism among some individual EU states. The euro is feeling the heat, as EU stability is under threat. EASYMARKETS:EURGBP #EURGBP Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
EURGBP Is Going Up! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for EURGBP. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 0.851. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 0.855 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
EURGBP HigherTrying EURGBP higher here. rate differentials are near the highs while the pair is at the lows, the pair tried to move below the current range but didn't quite make it which i think is a good sign. We also have a hammer on the daily chart. The narrative i think is shifting as well, EUR data is surprising to the upside and there's a chance of a hawkish ECB this week relative to expectations. Meanwhile the BoE is possibly turning dovish on a fall in UK inflation. Not trading/investment advice, feedback welcome!
Long
by Spinning_
EURGBP Bearish ContinuationAfter breaking down out of the head & shoulders pattern we broke below support acting as a stronger resistance area around 0.86259 - 0.86131. Also, price has consolidated and expanded just enough respecting a bearish trend line, creating a bearish flag & another Bearish Order block. I believe this OB is valid due to the imbalance plus a breaker block aligned within the imbalance. Once price reaches my POI I'd switch to the 15 minute time frame and look for a liquidity sweep and brake of structure during kill zone hours ( London Session ) & enter from the 15 minute order block. When all confirmations are put together and used during the correct time it's more comfortable and the probability is higher. Let me know what you guys think! Good luck to everyone trading!
Short
by ProfitPanther
EURGBP Bearish Trading IdeaDisclaimer, these ideas are for my records of what I see in the market after taking a trade. It will help me document the reason of why I took the trade so I can have a track record. And as such, this is not a financial advice. On the weakly timeframe, the pair was going lower steadily without leaving any supply zone unmitigated. The only imbalance the market left was at the start of 2024, which was later mitigated on May. On the daily timeframe, we are bearish, shown by the recently created change of character (CHoCH). On the 4 hour timeframe, we made a new CHoCH leaving an imbalance to be mitigated. On the 1 hour timeframe, I've highlighted a demand zone to be mitigated, I'll be buying in this area up until the highlighted area of interest above, from which I'll be looking for sells.
Short
by jask_skull
1
EUR/GBP (euro-pound): two potential targets have been identifiedObserving the ongoing build-up on the Daily-timeframe graph, it could be inferred that the price has been developing for potentially upcoming bullish moves. Having spiked below the local key level and grabbed liquidity, we might imply that a bullish wave is ready to commence. Thus, having set buy positions with the stop-out order below the recent liquidity wick, we are having eyes on two key zones for making closures - both partial and full - and generating profits. With the total risk-reward set at an approximation of 1:4, we are being patient and awaiting further action from the price. Nevertheless, there is no need to rush. As we know well, the market should and will do its thing regardless of our interpretation of it. Hence, the only thing that we could do is to follow our risk management plan, take a calculated guess, and have eyes on the long-term spectrum while remaining patient and composed at all times and costs.
Long
by Investroy
Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week With a European Central Bank (ECB) decision due next week, a trade in the GBP/EUR could be of interest. Presently, the EUR/GBP is trading at the lowest rate since August of 2022. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) is what could be driving this weakness in the EUR. E ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation is under control, hinting at a possible interest rate cut next month. The same level of dovishness is not yet seen in the language of the BOE officials. Additionally, the GBP/EUR pair could be influenced by changes in the U.S. dollar. The pound typically exhibits greater sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment compared to the euro. A softening U.S. dollar, potentially stemming from upcoming U.S. jobs data, might further strengthen the pound against the euro. Intraday bias for the GBP/EUR pair remains neutral, with potential for more consolidations. Across the week, we get the US JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Last month’s NFP reported 175,000 jobs added in April 2024, down from 315,000 jobs added in March, and falling well short of expectations for 240,000. This month's forecast is for even fewer, at 150,000 jobs. Bear in mind, any surprising strength in U.S. job data or a more hawkish tone from the BOE could lead to different trading dynamics.
by BlackBull_Markets
Potential bullish rise?EUR/GBP has just bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise to our take profit. Entry: 0.8501 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 0.8456 Why we like it: There is a support level which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 0.8530 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Strifor || SILVER-28/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Not long ago, we considered silver for short-term buy-deal and this trade has already been closed today, or at least transferred to breakeven, and most of the profit has been fixed. In the shorter term, the metals are likely to expect a pullback, a downward correction. Against this background, we will consider two scenarios, which can be seen on the chart. It should be noted that both scenarios are rather considered by us equally, although scenario №1 is designated as a priority. The target for the fall is considered to be at support 29.77800. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Strifor || GBPUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: We highlighted short-term buy-priority at the end of the previous trading week, and at the beginning of this week this mood continues. Just like in the euro , there will most likely be at least a short-term strengthening, which will not be long in coming. Here we highlight two main scenarios, where scenario №2 (plan B), as well as for the euro, is not entirely desirable for buyers. Therefore, scenario №1 is a higher priority and it is better to try to use small stop losses and open new transactions if something happens. The growth target can be fixed near the level of 1.28000 and slightly higher. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
3