EUR/GBP BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
EUR/GBP is making a bullish rebound on the 8H TF and is nearing the resistance line above while we are generally bearish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following short a good option for us with the target being the 0.848 level.
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Eurgbp!
EURGBP Bearish Trading IdeaDisclaimer, these ideas are for my records of what I see in the market after taking a trade. It will help me document the reason of why I took the trade so I can have a track record. And as such, this is not a financial advice.
On the weakly timeframe, the pair was going lower steadily without leaving any supply zone unmitigated. The only imbalance the market left was at the start of 2024, which was later mitigated on May.
On the daily timeframe, we are bearish, shown by the recently created change of character (CHoCH).
On the 4 hour timeframe, we made a new CHoCH leaving an imbalance to be mitigated.
On the 1 hour timeframe, I've highlighted a demand zone to be mitigated, I'll be buying in this area up until the highlighted area of interest above, from which I'll be looking for sells.
EUR/GBP (euro-pound): two potential targets have been identifiedObserving the ongoing build-up on the Daily-timeframe graph, it could be inferred that the price has been developing for potentially upcoming bullish moves. Having spiked below the local key level and grabbed liquidity, we might imply that a bullish wave is ready to commence. Thus, having set buy positions with the stop-out order below the recent liquidity wick, we are having eyes on two key zones for making closures - both partial and full - and generating profits. With the total risk-reward set at an approximation of 1:4, we are being patient and awaiting further action from the price.
Nevertheless, there is no need to rush. As we know well, the market should and will do its thing regardless of our interpretation of it. Hence, the only thing that we could do is to follow our risk management plan, take a calculated guess, and have eyes on the long-term spectrum while remaining patient and composed at all times and costs.
Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week
With a European Central Bank (ECB) decision due next week, a trade in the GBP/EUR could be of interest. Presently, the EUR/GBP is trading at the lowest rate since August of 2022.
The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) is what could be driving this weakness in the EUR. E ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation is under control, hinting at a possible interest rate cut next month. The same level of dovishness is not yet seen in the language of the BOE officials.
Additionally, the GBP/EUR pair could be influenced by changes in the U.S. dollar. The pound typically exhibits greater sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment compared to the euro. A softening U.S. dollar, potentially stemming from upcoming U.S. jobs data, might further strengthen the pound against the euro. Intraday bias for the GBP/EUR pair remains neutral, with potential for more consolidations.
Across the week, we get the US JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Last month’s NFP reported 175,000 jobs added in April 2024, down from 315,000 jobs added in March, and falling well short of expectations for 240,000. This month's forecast is for even fewer, at 150,000 jobs.
Bear in mind, any surprising strength in U.S. job data or a more hawkish tone from the BOE could lead to different trading dynamics.
Potential bullish rise?EUR/GBP has just bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8501
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 0.8456
Why we like it:
There is a support level which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 0.8530
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Strifor || SILVER-28/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Not long ago, we considered silver for short-term buy-deal and this trade has already been closed today, or at least transferred to breakeven, and most of the profit has been fixed. In the shorter term, the metals are likely to expect a pullback, a downward correction. Against this background, we will consider two scenarios, which can be seen on the chart. It should be noted that both scenarios are rather considered by us equally, although scenario №1 is designated as a priority. The target for the fall is considered to be at support 29.77800.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || GBPUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: We highlighted short-term buy-priority at the end of the previous trading week, and at the beginning of this week this mood continues. Just like in the euro , there will most likely be at least a short-term strengthening, which will not be long in coming.
Here we highlight two main scenarios, where scenario №2 (plan B), as well as for the euro, is not entirely desirable for buyers. Therefore, scenario №1 is a higher priority and it is better to try to use small stop losses and open new transactions if something happens. The growth target can be fixed near the level of 1.28000 and slightly higher.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: Based on the results of last week, it can be noted that the market remained at the same levels and there were no significant changes. However, at the same time, such dynamics showed the stability of the US dollar's competitors, which indicates a likely short-term strengthening of these instruments. And of course, the EURUSD currency pair is one of the most promising from this point of view.
Especially at the beginning of this week, the euro is seen strengthening towards the level of 1.90000 . The most likely scenario №1 , which can be found on the chart, indicates an increase to the maximum from current prices. This scenario is a higher priority, and it is better to enter with small stop losses and, if something happens, simply open a new deal. Scenario №2 is a plan B, but is extremely unpalatable for buyers.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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The idea of a bull marketDear analysts and traders,
I trust this message finds you in good health and high spirits as you prepare to approach the upcoming week with renewed vigor. I extend my best wishes for continued success in all your business pursuits. It is essential to emphasize that sustained success in business hinges significantly on the consistent establishment and adherence to your principles.
As an advocate of the Elliott Wave principle, I regard this methodology as a valuable instrument for market analysis. Over the past three years, I have honed my approach by amalgamating this principle with a meticulous evaluation of diverse market scenarios. I strive to mitigate market uncertainties by upholding a broad spectrum of market perspectives, enabling me to discern market structures with utmost precision.
I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the disclaimer that I do not offer buy or sell recommendations. My perspective on analytical ideas remains entirely impartial, and if my analysis aligns with your standards, it can serve as a compass for informed decision-making.
I have enclosed my prior analysis of the same market for your perusal and comparison. All aspects of my analysis are clearly delineated for clarity. Nevertheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave principle theory facilitates comprehension of the analytical concept. I apologize for the repetitive nature of the text, as my week is occupied with formulating analytical and educational ideas, as well as engaging in trading activities and managing my social networks. Due to time constraints, I am unable to provide textual explanations for every idea, hence the inclusion of a separate text alongside the labeling. Should the text be unclear, I am available to elucidate the key points.
My rigorous study of the Elliott Wave Principle spanned nearly three years, during which my grasp and utilization of this invaluable tool evolved. My progress thus far stands as a tribute to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Elliott, whose brilliance underpins my accomplishments. May he rest in peace.
I am grateful for your unwavering support and benevolence, and I eagerly anticipate your feedback and constructive criticism.
May my analysis serve as a valuable asset in your business endeavors, and I remain yours sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
Previous analytical ideas
Bearish scenario with pound strength
Strifor || SILVER-23/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: After yet another historical and local record for metals , this market began to correct faster than currency pairs. In silver , in particular, we have recorded a local maximum and are now confidently moving towards the support level of 29.77800 . Near this level, we consider long according to scenario №1 , taking into account the context. We also do not exclude scenario №2 , which involves buying at the 29.00 level. In both cases, we do not consider the target above the level of 31.80 , where this correction started.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Eur Gbp long EUR/GBP Long Signal: Bullish Outlook
Analysis:
The EUR/GBP pair is showing a promising long signal, driven by a combination of technical patterns and fundamental factors suggesting upward momentum. Here’s a brief overview of the bullish outlook:
Technical Indicators:
Support Zone: EUR/GBP has found strong support around the 0.84700---0.84430 level, This support zone provides a solid foundation for potential upward movement.
Eurozone Economic Recovery: The Eurozone is showing signs of economic recovery, supported by robust manufacturing and services sector data. This positive economic backdrop strengthens the Euro against the British Pound.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining a relatively more supportive monetary policy stance compared to the Bank of England (BoE), which is grappling with inflationary pressures. This divergence in policy outlooks is likely to favor the Euro over the Pound.
The EUR/GBP pair presents a compelling long opportunity, supported by strong technical indicators and favorable fundamental factors. Traders should stay vigilant and adjust their positions as needed, keeping an eye on key economic data releases and geopolitical developments that could impact market dynamics.
EURGBPhello everyone, this is based on day tf, the price has reached strong support area, the price may get bullish and may breakout of 200ma.. currently the price did recover last Thursday after PMI news, while GBP dip with poor retail news.. some minor news for euro this week.. may recover more.. price dropped from 0.8532 to 0.8515 based on 15min tf ... price need to make new high above 0.8532 to show Euro in strength... 0.8532 is all time strong resistance area that need to break for price to remain bullish...
Strifor || EURAUD-24/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Previously, we published a medium-term trading idea with a target at the level of 1.64767 . This idea is still at work, and the stated goal is also relevant. If we consider the current picture, we can consider entering a long position with the same target at the level of 1.64767 (scenario №1). This will be especially interesting for those who did not manage to enter a long position earlier.
As an alternative entry into a long position within the short-term framework under consideration, we can highlight scenario №2. However, it is undesirable, and it is better to look for a buy at current prices at the time of writing this trading idea.
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Strifor || EURUSD-24/05/2024Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: AToday, the situation on the euro looks more neutral, and for a more grounded trades, it is better to wait until certain levels are reached. Let's start with the most likely scenario №1 , which assumes a fall towards the level of 1.07500 and below. It should be noted that in a more global perspective than in the short term, most likely bears will dominate the market. To fall, you need to wait until the price fixes below the level of 1.08000.
Alternative scenario №2 assumes a short-term strengthening of the euro towards the level of 1.09000 . If such a scenario is realized, it is still most likely that the instrument will turn downward in the medium term.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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