Forextraplaces - the week ahead - EUR/GBPIt's a well know market phenomenon that gaps in the market are inevitably always filled.
The market hates gaps.
No-one seems to know why but its simply a fact.
When the markets opened last Sunday (UK time) EUR gapped open across many pairs.
EUR/USD 25 pip gap - filled.
EUR/JPY 28 pip gap - filled.
EUR/CAD 26 pip gap - filled
EUR/CHF - no gap
EUR/AUD 37 pip NOT filled.
EUR/NZD 42 pip gap NOT filled.
These last 2 trading pairs have been in a steep decline since the end of April and show no signs of reversing so the gaps in these markets may not bve filled for some time but EUR/GBP is the pair to look at.
I expected this gap to have been filled last week particulalrly as GBP was largely BEARISH but this did not happen.
I expect that this gap WILL be filled this week.
Key is .8842.
If we see the price of EUR/GBP break .8842 (where I have a SELL STOP) , I expect the price to close the gap and then reverse sharply.
This will need to be done before Friday as the EURO PMI numbers will most likely set the direction of the EUR and these are due on Friday.
So look to get LONG on this pair and see if the gap is filled but be mindful that the overall picture for is pair is BEARISH.
EURGBP
EUR/GBP BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello,Friends!
We are now examining the EUR/GBP pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 0.849 level.
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EURGBP Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURGBP.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 0.843.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 0.836 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Market Analysis: EUR/GBP Poised For More LossesMarket Analysis: EUR/GBP Poised For More Losses
EUR/GBP is declining and trading below the 0.8410 support level.
Important Takeaways for EUR/GBP Analysis Today
- EUR/GBP is declining and showing bearish signs below 0.8460.
- There is a major declining channel forming with support at 0.8410 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair struggled to gain pace for a move above 0.8520. The Euro settled below 0.8490 and started a fresh decline against the British Pound.
There was a clear move below the 0.8470 pivot level. The EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8460. A low is formed near 0.8412 and the pair is now consolidating losses.
Immediate resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8457 swing high to the 0.8412 low at 0.8435 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The next major resistance could be near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8457 swing high to the 0.8412 low at 0.8445. A close above the 0.8445 level might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8470. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.8490 level.
Immediate support sits near 0.8410. There is also a major declining channel forming with support at 0.8410. The next major support is near 0.8380. A downside break below the 0.8380 support might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward the 0.8350 support level.
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EurGbp could drop hard and test 0.8From a fundamental standpoint, given the political problems in the EU, the GBP is expected to outperform the Euro, regardless of what happens with the major pairs (EUR/USD and GBP/USD).
This, combined with the technical outlook, could create a promising selling opportunity for EUR/GBP.
As shown in the chart, the pair broke a major support level this week. Considering the descending triangle pattern that has contained EUR/GBP since late January, we could see an acceleration to the downside, potentially leading to a 400-pip drop to test the 0.80 psychological support.
My strategy is to sell on rallies.
EUR/GBP - Epic Comeback!! That liquidity zone is so heavy !!
A long the time accumulate all the liquidity..
Remember this pair is the most powerful, because there are two strength currencies ..
If you understand long term, you have a money gun..
Obviously with the perfect strategy !!
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EUR/GBP breaks down amid EU political uneaseSentiment in Europe remained pessimistic for the second consecutive day. Concerns about the continent's political future were underscored by the EUR/GBP reaching its lowest level since August 2022, alongside a sharp decline in French bonds and stocks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year French bonds increased by another 10 basis points as bond prices fell for the fourth straight day.
EUR/GBP breaks down
Given the breakdown in the EUR/GBP below key support around the pivotal 0.85 area, I will be monitoring for a potential ret-test of this area from underneath in the days ahead, before the trend potentially resumes.
Specifically, the area between 0.8480 to 0.8500 is now the most important resistance zone to watch for a potential trade.
Why are traders so concerned about EU’s political situation?
Investors are hesitant to buy into the latest dip due to the uncertainty surrounding the potential coalition government that could be led by President Macron and far-right Prime Minister Jordan Bardella. Additionally, the European Commission is expected to place France in an Excessive Deficit Procedure next week, raising concerns about France's fiscal sustainability and adherence to EU fiscal rules, adding further risk to the markets.
While European politics and their economic impact evolve gradually, the European elections suggest a future focus on border security and industrial policies, potentially shifting EU cooperation towards more domestic agendas. So far, sovereign debt tensions have been mostly confined to France, but today, we've seen minor turmoil spreading to a few southern European countries.
A rightward shift across Europe could heighten market uncertainty, making Europe less predictable and attractive to investors. It is crucial for European and national leaders to address these concerns promptly.
Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Follow me on twitter: x.com
EURGBP eyes support ahead of UK CPI printEURGBP initially began the year in a fairly well-defined trading range but showed bullish impetus after breaking out of the consolidation pattern. However, bullish momentum appeared lacking, as the pair struggled to maintain a steady directional move and has since shown a penchant towards mean reversion.
0.8635 proved too high to handle for the pair previously but the most recent bullish advance fell short of that, finding resistance around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) before heading lower.
The current spate of selling is showing signs of fatigue as the pair attempts to trade higher after four successive days of losses. The pair could find itself propped up by trendline support, which caught the bottoms in April and earlier on in May.
Keep an eye out for UK CPI tomorrow where there is an expectation of a notable move lower from the prior month. With such optimism, comes the potential for disappointment if the actual data fails to reach the low levels anticipated which may see sterling lift in the moments after the print. April data has the potential to surprise to the upside as this is the month when annual price rises and index-linked increases are implemented. On the other side of the equation, if the CPI data prints inline or lower than consensus estimates, EURGBP may rise off support as markets clear the way for a Bank of England cut sooner rather than later.
The Euro: Navigating Politics, Geopolitics, and SocietyThe euro, as the second most traded currency globally, is heavily influenced by the political stability of the European Union (EU) and global geopolitical dynamics. The stability of the euro is linked to the political environment within the EU, where recent events like the rise of EU-skeptic parties and political turbulence in key member states, such as France and Italy, have introduced uncertainty.
Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Ukraine and economic policies from major economies like the US and China, also significantly impact the euro. Additionally, the rise of Islam in Europe, due to immigration and higher birth rates among Muslim communities, has influenced elections and political discourse, contributing to the success of far-right parties. These sociopolitical shifts further complicate the euro's stability by introducing political instability and policy uncertainty.
Currently, the pound-to-euro exchange rate has surged, driven by EU political instability and the cautious approach of the European Central Bank (ECB) towards inflation and interest rates. The euro's future will be shaped by a complex interplay of internal political cohesion, global geopolitical tensions, and sociocultural dynamics.
EURGBP H4 | Bearish Momentum?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.8495, which is a pullback resistance and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 0.8447, a swing-low support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 0.8540, an overlap resistance level.
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EURGBP BUY SIGNAL EURGBP
I neither trade the news nor any SMC or chart patterns, etc. I trade solely and exclusively based on algorithmic structure. According to the algorithm, a long swing trade is warranted here. I have mentioned the entry level and TP (Take Profit) and SL (Stop Loss) below.
BUY
ENTRY = 0.84345
STOPLOSS = 0.84042
TARGIT 1 = 0.84991
TARGET 2 = 0.85400
TARGET 3 = 0.86016
EUR/GBP Rate at 21-Month Low Post-European Parliament ElectionsEUR/GBP Rate at 21-Month Low Post-European Parliament Elections
Investors will begin the week in a state of uncertainty regarding the outlook of Europe's political landscape.
The four-day European Parliament elections concluded on Sunday. According to Reuters, the results showed a significant gain for eurosceptic-nationalists, who have displaced liberals and greens.
Additionally, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French Parliament, calling for early legislative elections later this month after losing to Marine Le Pen's far-right party in the European Union elections.
All this puts pressure on the structure of the European Union, weakening the euro's value.
As shown by the EUR/GBP chart, trading on the currency markets opened on Monday around the 0.8465 level—a price not seen since August 2022.
According to the technical analysis of EUR/GBP today:
→ The price broke below the critical support level of 0.85, which had been in place since 2023;
→ In terms of price dynamics since autumn 2022, the market is in a downward trend (as indicated by the red channel). The bearish break of 0.85 reinforces this trend;
→ The median line of the channel could serve as a consolidation zone below 0.85, confirming the relevance of the channel;
→ The 0.85-0.853 zone may provide significant resistance in the future if bulls attempt to rectify the situation.
In a negative scenario for the market (e.g., a political crisis within Europe), the EUR/GBP price could potentially reach the lower boundary of the indicated channel.
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
European instability causing weakness in the euroAfter the EU Parliamentary elections, there is a rise of nationalism and protectionism among some individual EU states. The euro is feeling the heat, as EU stability is under threat.
EASYMARKETS:EURGBP #EURGBP
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EURGBP Is Going Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for EURGBP.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 0.851.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 0.855 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
EURGBP HigherTrying EURGBP higher here.
rate differentials are near the highs while the pair is at the lows, the pair tried to move below the current range but didn't quite make it which i think is a good sign. We also have a hammer on the daily chart.
The narrative i think is shifting as well, EUR data is surprising to the upside and there's a chance of a hawkish ECB this week relative to expectations. Meanwhile the BoE is possibly turning dovish on a fall in UK inflation.
Not trading/investment advice, feedback welcome!