Eurgbpbearish
"Winner takes all" on EURGBP for UK Elections... after what was another upsetting weekend in the city, sadly, no surprises!!! Elections now taking centre stage in UK alongside Saudi/Qatar relations.
We'll wrap up the macro details in a few as I will be publishing 2 setups on EURGBP for those wishing to take part these will include references to the interpretation/context of recent numbers and politics.
-> The options ... Long or short.
Those choosing to take part have 2 triggers to pick from; price and fibs and we can compare at the end which was the best (if any).
(i) FIBS
Longs ->
Shorts ->
(ii) PRICE
Longs ->
Shorts ->
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Choose from;
BUY : Limit BUY @ 0.865x -> TP1 0.882x -> TP2 0.900x
SELL : Limit SELL @ 0.881x -> TP1 0.845x -> TP2 0.823x
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This is the range we are currently trading in:
Bottom of range : 0.8350x
Top of range : 0.9270x
Mid : 0.8750x
=> Conservatives remaining with unchanged majority, expectations will offer a relief rally towards the 0.84xx handle after the election. This would give us continuation of the range (Mid/Low) of 0.84xx - 0.88xx
=> Conservatives losing majority and Corbyn the communist getting the hung parliament we will see expectations towards the 0.90xx handle in a swift knee jerk before settling in the 0.84xx - 0.88x range till the end of this year when we will start to trade the impact of Brexit in equities.
Come on jump in and make a call!!
EURGBP FINDING RESISTANCEEURGBP found enough energy to break out of the triangle but it appears as if a 78.6% level may be putting a slight hold on the upward move. The anticipation is that the fib level will hold and that the move out of the triangle is a fakeout. Look for more downside order flow if price moves back into the triangle.
EurGbp Bullish and Bearish setupsEurGbp looks like it will perform a wave up when looking at the current structure and the indicators.
However a break of the lower range will confirm a sell. So basicly EurGbp is showing options for a
bullish or bearish entry. Personally I am with the bulls given the current structure and setup of the indicators. But I will sell if the lower range breaks.
Since it can be traded both ways I give this setup a Neutral.
Also alot will depend on the French elections that are being held this sunday. If the anti-EU "populists" don't win then the Euro will show a nice boost.
EURGBP right shoulder formingGuys.....
For those who are trading sterling exposure, here is one to be looking at. Technically speaking, EUR/GBP began rolling over from a lower high starting in February. This may be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top. Strong support at .83300 from the neckline, trend line and 50d moving average must be broken to confirm the top.
We heard words out of Forbes yesterday implying the UK will be needing a rate hike in the coming months, this will be indicative for the waterfall event. She also believes that inflation is picking up faster than forecast.
Our models suggest that Q1 2017 was a turning point for GBP pairs, this is going to be confirmed b a break below support suggesting EUR/GBP will fall to .7500.
EURGBP Short Setup; Short on break 0.87475Selling EURGBP on break of 0.87475 (watching PA on 1h and 4H)
Upside gained quite some momentum on Friday; however, it is unlikely to last long.
0.87475 is an important level; use indicators and watch PA closely as it PULLS BACK, likely to break the level during the first London session next week.
Aggressive trade: sell a few hours into market open.
Target: 0.86550.
Finding Well Known ResistanceWaiting to see the GBP Construction PMI. If they come out with strong numbers, then this will fall like a brick. EUR is coming out with Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y and CPI Flash Estimate y/y. They do tend to move the market. Keep an eye on this pair after the release. My rule of thumb is, i'm never trading on the wrong side of 10EMA, and never going into a reverse position, if the current daily candle stick hasn't exceeded the previous day.
Wait For The ReverseIt just broke resistance at 0.84780 yesterday and is now slowly moving up again. The previous uptrend (green line) is the new high, which I think it will be bouncing of and reverse in a day or two. MACD is forming a negative double wave, which often signals buying power is weak and it will continue negative.
EURGBP Might be Trying to say somethingOver the past couple of days we've had some mixed feelings about eurgbp but so far i think shes giving as much signals as possible , if indeed we are to break out , the day is today (I have to admit it though , that uptrend force is scary to think about while short at this pair , but oh dear trading wisely is the key.
EURGBP Short Opportunity I AM A GOLD TRADER, but this pair caught my attention as it reminded me of a previous chart i posted 3 months ago on XAUUSD which made profits, and similarly EURGBP looks to be very similar. If you look at my previous idea, on a weekly chart you will see the similarity in price action which i am speaking of and understand what i am stating.
EURGBP:
- Looks to be forming a H&S on a weekly time frame.
-There also seems to be a gap at 0.81562
- The pair looks to be wanting to test a previous MAJOR resistance line, which will become future support (As shown on chart)
Therefore, i am short.
Target: 0.81562
Note *This is a swing trade, may take months to terminate*
$$$$
UK supreme court will confirm T.May right to triger article 50 Eyeballing the immediate trend remains bearish since November made new lows. This is further illustrated with our models signaled up meaning we may be preparing to rally.
At this moment market is still in a downtrend looking at the weekly level. The last high is marked in the first week of October, we remain below key support and resistance is now at 0.84200. On a broader basis monthly levels imply a rise in trend.
Some caution is required with buys on this pair.
long EURGBP @ 1h @ trading capability for this 52nd week `16Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :)
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
short EURGBP @ 60 min @ trading capability for this 51st week`16Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :)
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron