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Eurgbplong

GBP traders - the BoE facing the toughest job of any G10 CBAsk a trader who is the most influential central bank, and the answer should unequivocally be the Federal Reserve. Then, ask the same traders which central bank has the hardest job in setting policy, and you’ll most likely hear them say “the ECB” – They have to set policy for 19 different countries, where a one-size fits all model is fraught with challenges – all the while, the Eurozone is most exposed to the Ukraine conflict, has very high supply-side driven inflation and a looming energy crisis. While sympathetic to this argument, I would argue it’s the Bank of England (BoE) that is most challenged – partly because the likely Conservative party leader, Liz Truss, is threatening an overhaul of the bank's policy mandate, but because of the sheer lack of confidence held in their forecasting ability. At this very moment, I’d argue that few other central banks even close, certainly in G10/DM circles, to the distribution of potential economic scenarios faced by the BoE – if you have zero confidence in your forecasting ability, then you’re really making policy up on the fly and the currency should wear sufficient risk premium. The UK to see 20%+ inflation? This week Citigroup caused shockwaves through the economics circles with forecasts that UK CPI and RPI inflation could reach 18% and 21% respectively in Q1 23. It raises the prospect that other economists revise their inflation calls soon as well - the BoE is forecasting inflation to reach 13%, but their forecasts may again need to be reviewed, as they tend to be slower moving than private sector economists. We know UK headline inflation has been largely driven by supply side issues, notably by an incredible rise in gas, electricity, and food prices. Rate hikes are very much on the cards, and the BoE will almost certainly lift the bank rates by 50bp to 2.25% on 15 Sept, but this will do almost nothing to alter the trajectory of inflation – it’s all heading to a sizeable squeeze in domestic demand which should negatively impact the UK corporate landscape, and invariably lead to deeper negative real wages, layoffs, and higher unemployment rates. One could also see a world where the UK economy heads to a recession, slack builds in the economy and various measures of medium-and longer-term inflation expectations fall – subsequently, the BoE cut rates in late 2023/24 – a vision the market currently shares with 60bp of cuts priced into UK (tradeable) interest rate curve for 2024. However, if UK CPI does indeed move into the high teens, and the BoE sees entrenched ‘sticky’ inflation, then one could feasibly see a world where the BoE hike the bank rate to 5% to 6%, and not the 4% that the market currently discounts as the ‘terminal’ rate. Again, it plays into the idea that the playbook of outcomes is so incredibly diverse, and this is a massive headache for the BoE, as well as those trying to position investment portfolios. Ofgem price caps in full focus Looking at the unfolding inflation dynamics – one piece of news that is being watched closely this week will be the Ofgem price caps for October – this intel essentially details the cap that suppliers can charge households (effective 1 October) and is the poster child of modern-day inflation. Estimates for the Ofgem cap currently sit around £3600, up from £1971 in April. However, this figure is then expected to increase by 26% in January 2023 and 27% in April 2023 – this will genuinely hurt households and businesses. On a political note, Liz Truss is looking to implement fiscal measures to the tune of £30b (c.1.4% of GDP) to address the cost-of-living crisis, with the suspension of the Green Levy and cuts on VAT on household energy bills. However, these measures will be no panacea. They may support growth but will be deficit funded and require the UK Treasury to consider gilt issuance, which may raise bond yields and broad borrowing costs, especially given the backdrop of BoE QT – in this case, a GBP negative. Looking more broadly at GBP fundamentals – Personal consumption is in decline; business investment is weak, and UK GDP is deteriorating with Q2 GDP -0.1% QoQ - it seems likely this will only get worse as higher inflation breaks the social fabric, cementing a negative feedback loop to consumers spending behaviours. The UK's current account is falling away as trade is being affected by Brexit and lacklustre external demand – with the UK's biggest trading partner - Europe - also facing a tough winter and a protracted economic slowdown. The UK’s capital account is also deteriorating, so the GBP is facing rising balance of payments concerns GBPUSD to 1.1500? In essence, the UK is facing a number of economic considerations which suggest significant GBP headwinds – from where I sit, we can like the GBP from a rising rates perspective, but when UK real rates are likely headed lower, relative expected growth and investment attraction favour the US, While forecasts offer traders no edge, GBPUSD seems destined for 1.1500 over time, perhaps lower. But one thing is clear, the BoE have their work cut out.
Short
by Pepperstone
1
EURGBP order block sell positionWe came into a 4hr area of consolidation and now demand is in control, i expect price to come back up to the area i have marked getting this entry with a 3 pip sl you can hold this trade over the weekend if it gets activated during this time if the trade gets activated hold the trade for atleast 1:5 make sure to take partials on the way down. just keep in mind that it is a friday and we could face big spread so just be careful Have fun Trading and have a profitable week!
Short
by xaph_frx
Eurgbp ready to bounce back to record resistence.Hi everyone in the TradingView community. I am Rana Sarmad I like to share and talk about trading strategies. If you are a member of my subscribers list and like my ideas, please don't hesitate to let me know by hitting that Like button and growing my notification count! We are going to discuss about FX:EURGBP We can see a market break its strong support in D1. So we are expecting a strong rise near support. This is my opinion, I really hope this will be useful for you. This is not a financial advice. Always take trade at your own risk, Be ready and take care your money. Have a great profit ! Risk Warning: Trading Forex and Leveraged Financial Instruments involves significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose and should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. Trading leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors. Trading non-leveraged products such as stocks also involves risk as the value of a stock can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Before trading, please take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary. It is the responsibility of the Client to ascertain whether he/she is permitted to use the services of the EMOTT brand based on the legal requirements in his/her country of residence........
Long
by Theranasaramd
EURGBP Aug 2022 W.2: Short-term trend!Hi friends, I hope y'all are having an amazing weekend ;) Today, we're looking at a possible short-term trade signal. This trade is derived from the weekly where the price recently closed with a bullish reversal candle pattern in the H&S accumulation phase that aims to retest the 50 and bearish crossed short-term m.a's so that it will fully confirm the long-term bias of both the weekly and monthly. However, this counter-trend signal might be rejected, by having the price dramatically drop in direction of the overall trend. With that said, let us take a look at how the bulls and bears might behave in triggering our trade and dis-confirming it. Bulls: -If the price bearish bounces off the Daily Half a Bat Neckline and 8 m.a with a bullish reversal candle pattern, that will trigger out trade or confirm our bias. I call this type of trade signal a "Double Bottom B-E.1". Bears: -If the price forms a bearish reversal pattern that leads it to bearish break and retest the Daily Half a Bat Neckline together with the 50 and bearish crossed short-term m.a's, that will dis-confirm our trade or bias. The price would be preparing for the long-term trend I mentioned earlier on. That's it for today. I hope you found value in this trade idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section or in private, I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed, Spha Thwala.
Long
by Doji-2k1
10:1 EUR/GBP Trend Developing***Not Financial Advice*** The EUR/GBP has rotated off of the lowest major framework box in its range signaling that we are headed toward the opposite side of the range, or 1000 pips away at minimum. See EUR/USD for a preview of what this market could do. With the EURO Rate Decision set for Wednesday this week, this could be a high impact event that catalyzes price to start trending. With many factors lining up in our favor, and the wind to our back, this is a trade setup where you can consider placing a heavier position than normal. Multiple trade factors coalescing into a singular conclusion is like being dealt pocket kings. There is still some risk that you're wrong about the trade, but you have the option to be more aggressive in how you play them (read: consider lotting up). May the odds be ever in your favor ***Not Financial Advice***
Long
by AuracleatFungii
Euro against pound is ready for long Hi everyone in the TradingView community. I am Rana Sarmad I like to share and talk about trading strategies. If you are a member of my subscribers list and like my ideas, please don't hesitate to let me know by hitting that Like button and growing my notification count! We are going to discuss about FX:NZDCAD We can see market is strugling near its previous resistance and currently standing near its a strong support in D1 Support level. So we are expecting more rise near Trendline,Then we can expect a strong bull run after the formation of Head and shoulder. This is my opinion, I really hope this will be useful for you. This is not a financial advice. Always take trade at your own risk, Be ready and take care your money. Have a great profit ! Risk Warning: Trading Forex and Leveraged Financial Instruments involves significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose and should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. Trading leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors. Trading non-leveraged products such as stocks also involves risk as the value of a stock can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Before trading, please take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary. It is the responsibility of the Client to ascertain whether he/she is permitted to use the services of the EMOTT brand based on the legal requirements in his/her country of residence........
Long
by Theranasaramd