EURGBP Channel Down but short-term rebound expected.The EURGBP pair is trading within a 1-year Channel Down pattern since the November 16 2023 High. Three days ago the price made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern and rebounded. This was also on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which based on the previous Bearish Leg, has high probabilities of sustaining a Bullish Leg.
Assuming the symmetry with January - April 2024 holds, we turn bullish now on this pair, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 0.84375.
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Eurgbpsignals
EURGBP Will the Support hold?Great signal out of the EURGBP pair last time we analyzed it (June 25, see chart below), as the price hit and even surpassed our 0.8550 Target:
Following that High, the pair collapsed and is about to test Support 1, which technically is Lower Lows region for the long-term Channel Down. As long as the 1D RSI Higher Lows trend-line holds, we will look for a buy on Support 1 and target the 0.618 Fibonacci extension at 0.8530.
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EURGBP Overbought RSI, buy opportunity.The EURGBP pair hit on June 14 the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line0 of the 7-month (dashed) Channel Down and is on the rebound. At the same time, the 1D RSI got oversold (below 30.00) and every time it did so in the past 12 months, it started a strong bullish reversal.
More specifically the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel Down reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level to form its Lower High. As a result, we turn bullish on this pair, targeting 0.85500 (0.618 Fib).
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EURGBP Excellent short-term sell signalThe EURGBP pair easily hit our 0.5 Fibonacci Target following the symmetrical Double Bottom rebound, as mentioned on our last call (March 20, see chart below):
We now switch to the lower 4H time-frame as a strong sell signal emerged. The 4H RSI got rejected inside its 1-month Sell Zone and the pair that is trading within a Bullish Megaphone already reached (and is so far holding) its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
The last similar Bearish Leg reached at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding. As a result we have now a rough sell Target at 0.85635 (Fibonacci 0.618) but we will close earlier if the RSI hits the Buy Zone before the price hits the Target.
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EURGBP Consolidating before a sell.The EURGBP pair is on the 6th day of consolidation following the late November sell-off, trading considerably below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The long-term pattern that has been more established since the February 03 High is a Channel Down and it appears that this is a usual technical consolidation phase before the bearish leg enters its 2nd phase.
The 1D RSI got oversold though on December 01 and rebounded back above the 30.00 barrier, which aso explains the consolidation since, but be aware that if the 1D MACD completes a Bullish Cross, it will be time to buy and target the 1D MA50. Until then, we are bearish, aiming for a usual (since June 2022) -4.18% decline from the recent Lower High at 0.8400.
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EURGBP Buy extension signal within the Channel Up.The EURGBP pair has been trading within a 2-month Channel Up pattern, with the current bullish leg rebounding on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and even recently establishing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the latest Support.
With the 1D MACD on a Bullish Cross since the 1D MA200 break-out, we expect the rally to continue until 0.8000, which represents a new Higher High on a +2.14% symmetry with the previous rise, just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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EURGBP Target 1 achieved. Sell again.The EURGBP pair gave us a solid sell signal (1D RSI breaking the Higher Lows) on our last call (August 03) and has already hit our first target (see chart below):
The pattern remains a Channel Down since the February 03 High, maintaining the bearish trend unless the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks. It is also possible to see a transition to a Rectangle (Resistance 1 and 1D MA200 the top). Until the Channel Down breaks though, we are opening a 2nd sell on the current market price. The target remains 0.84100 (Support 2).
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EURGBP Wait for a higher sell entry.The EURGBP pair is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the February 03 High and right now is attempting to make a rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The Resistance from the recent High is at 0.87025 (Resistance 1) and is near the spot we expect the next rejection to take place as it is also where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is. We will use that opportunity to sell and target initially Support 1 (0.85050) and then Support 2 (0.84100) in extension.
A good sell confirmation signal can be when the 1D RSI breaks below its Higher Lows trend-line, followed by a rejection on the 1D MA50 as a Resistance.
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EURGBP Forming the first 1D Death Cross since January 2021!The EURGBP pair is completing today the first Death Cross on the 1D time-frame since January 21 2021. That is a strong long-term bearish signal on its own. On the short-term though, the price just hit the bottom of its 5 month Channel Down, while the 1D RSI, which is also on a Channel Down, hit its own bottom while turning oversold (below 30.00) for the first time since March 10 2021.
As a result, we've opened a buy on EURGBP, expecting a +1.69% rise, targeting the top of the Channel Down at 0.87150. If however the price closes below Support 1 (0.85475), then the selling pressure due to the 1D Death Cross will most likely pile up and we will turn bearish instead, targeting Support 2 (0.84100). The R/R ratio on this action plan is very favorable.
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EURGBP - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW#EURGBP
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for EURGBP is slightly on the UP SIDE. The main reason for that is the POSITIVE RISK SENTIMENT for EUR. Also, even if BOE RATE HIKE, we were not able to see BOE's intervention.
The reason for a POSITIVE SENTIMENT in EUR is that the USD has been quite WEAK in recent weeks. But a good UP SIDE BIAS is coming for EUR now with the MARKET SENTIMENT. Due to this reason, all MARKETS including STOCKS can be seen to be UP due to MARKET RISK being ON. It affects the EUR in a big way. The ECB did a RATE HIKE. BOE also did a RATE HIKE last week.
- EURGBP can definitely go up to the SUPPORT LEVEL below. Due to USD WEAK, EUR may be quite STRONG. Accordingly, EURGBP can be slightly BUY until the 0.8819 LEVEL. And after that EURGBP can SELL to 0.8700 LEVEL. The given STRUCTURES should be BREAKED for that...
EURGBP Near a buy break-out signalThe EURGBP pair is testing the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of a short-term Channel Down inside a 1 year Channel Up pattern. The previous two such patterns gave a buy signal when a 1D candle close above them. If that happens, we will buy and target Resistance 1 (0.89800). Our trading plan involves selling at the top of the Channel Up (Higher Highs trend-line) if a 1D candle closes below it and target 0.88000 (the 1D MA200) and buy if a 1D candle closes above it (target Resistance 2 at 0.92800).
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EURGBP - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW#EURGBP
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for EURGBP is slightly on the UP SIDE. The main reason for that is the POSITIVE RISK SENTIMENT for EUR. Also, even if BOE RATE HIKE, we were not able to see BOE's intervention.
The reason for a POSITIVE SENTIMENT in EUR is that the USD has been quite WEAK in recent weeks. But a good UP SIDE BIAS is coming for EUR now with the MARKET SENTIMENT. Due to this reason, all MARKETS including STOCKS can be seen to be UP due to MARKET RISK being ON. It affects the EUR in a big way. The ECB did a RATE HIKE. BOE also did a RATE HIKE last week.
- EURGBP can definitely go up to the SUPPORT LEVEL below. Due to USD WEAK, EUR may be quite STRONG. Accordingly, EURGBP can be slightly SELL until the 0.8700 LEVEL. And after that EURGBP can be BUY to the 0.8958 LEVEL. The given STRUCTURES should be BREAKED for that...
TRADE IDEAS FOR NEXT WEEK 6 MARCH 2023FX:EURGBP
As we can see that FX:EURGBP has has finally retested it's 4hr support this area has been tested multiple times before now so we are anticipating that price is going to reject that level and continue to push back up. Then we can look for our entries and ride along with the trend
EURGBP Channel Up but be ready to trade the break-outsThe EURGBP pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the December 01 Low. This is leading the price to Higher Highs, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), with the next one projected to be around 0.9020.
The 2 year pattern is a Bullish Megaphone, so a break above the Channel Up would be a buy break-out for us, targeting the 3.5 Fibonacci extension level (0.92835), where we expect the next Higher High as per the previous two Megaphone rallies.
A break below the Channel Up, would be a sell break-out for us targeting not just the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) which has made 4 contacts and has successfully held as a Support since September 06 2022.
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EURGBP - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW#EURGBP
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for EURGBP is slightly on the UP SIDE. The main reason for that is the POSITIVE RISK SENTIMENT for EUR. Also, even if BOE RATE HIKE, we were not able to see BOE's intervention.
The reason for a POSITIVE SENTIMENT in EUR is that the USD has been quite WEAK in recent weeks. But a good UP SIDE BIAS is coming for EUR now with the MARKET SENTIMENT. Due to this reason, all MARKETS including STOCKS can be seen to be UP due to MARKET RISK being ON. It affects the EUR in a big way. The ECB did a RATE HIKE. BOE also did a RATE HIKE last week.
- EURGBP can definitely go up to the RESISTANCE LEVEL above. Due to USD WEAK, EUR may be quite STRONG. Accordingly, EURGBP can go up slightly until the 0.9070 LEVEL. And after that EURGBP can be SELL to 0.8758 LEVEL. The given STRUCTURES should be BREAKED for that...
EURGBP - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW#EURGBP
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for EURGBP is slightly on the UP SIDE. The main reason for that is the POSITIVE RISK SENTIMENT for EUR. Also, even if BOE RATE HIKE, we were not able to see BOE's intervention.. The reason for EUR to have a POSITIVE SENTIMENT is that USD has been quite WEAK in recent weeks. But a good UP SIDE BIAS is coming for EUR now with the MARKET SENTIMENT. Due to this reason, all MARKETS including STOCKS can be seen to be UP due to MARKET RISK being ON. It affects the EUR in a big way. The ECB did a RATE HIKE. BOE also did a RATE HIKE last week.
- EURGBP can definitely go up to the RESISTANCE LEVEL above. Due to USD WEAK, EUR may be quite STRONG. According to that, EURGBP can go up slightly up to the level of 0.8973. And after that EURGBP can be SELL to 0.8647 LEVEL. The given STRUCTURES should be BREAKED for that...
EURGBP Resistance test. Aiming higher as planned.The EURGBP pair hit today the 0.88315 Resistance (November 09 High) after recently breaking above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). On our last analysis almost 2 months ago (October 29), we talked about this long term buy opportunity either on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) or the 1D RSI Support Zone:
Both conditions were met, so if you got positioned then, you may book the short-term profit now and re-buy if/ when the price breaks above the Resistance. The long-term pattern remains a Bullish Megaphone since the March 07 Low. As previously mentioned, since the previous Higher Highs were made after breaking the 1.5 and 2.5 Fibonacci extension levels respectively, we can assume that the next one will be on the same progression, i.e. the Fib 3.5, which is currently at 0.92835. This is our long-term target.
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EURGBP - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW#EURGBP
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for EURGBP is slightly on the DOWN SIDE. The main reason for that is the NEGATIVE RISK SENTIMENT for EUR. And we can mention BOE intervention. The reason for positive sentiment in EUR is USD SELL. But a good UP SIDE BIAS is coming for GBP now with the MARKET SENTIMENT. Due to this reason, all MARKETS including STOCKS can be seen to be UP due to MARKET RISK being ON. It affects the EUR in a big way.
- EURGBP can definitely go up to the RESISTANCE LEVEL above. Due to USD WEAK, EUR may be quite STRONG. Accordingly, EURGBP can go up slightly until the 0.8630 LEVEL. And after that EURGBP can be SELL to 0.8450 LEVEL. The given STRUCTURES should be BREAKED for that.. eurgbp