The Hungarian momentarily lost its footing against the euroThe Hungarian momentarily lost its footing against the euro once the month kicked off. But as of today, it manages to ease thanks to stimulus hopes and the performance of the stock market. The global sentiment improved which helped the Hungarian forint and major stock indices. And all of these are because investors are looking forward to further stimulus measures in the United States and the positive results produced by the eurozone. Moreover, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban confidently said that the country’s economy will benefit from an upcoming investment boom by next year. This will be the evident result of the government’s programs to help domestic firms. Through government aid, hundreds of companies have undertaken to invest in machinery and factories that should start production or manufacturing within a year. However, Orban warned the citizens to stay cautious to prevent a second wave of coronavirus infections.
EURHUF
EUR/HUF Monthly Forecast (July)First wave of the Elliot has reached an end on a key level, correction is expected. Fibonacci 0.382 level is overlap with an another key level.
I expect the third wave (the end of the correction) there. The Fibonacci extension 61.8's line overlap with an another strong level.Likely we can estimate the third wave's strength.
The Central Bank reduced the interest rate, and planning to cut another more 0.15% in July.This means,the fundamental backround is given, the HUF (Hungarian Forint) will weaken in the next few weeks/months.
The interest rate cut from the Hungarian central bankThe expected interest rate cut from the Hungarian central bank this July is slowing down the Hungarian forint. In fact, it caused to weakened significantly against the euro in the trading sessions. The pair is widely projected to climb to its resistance and hit levels last seen in early April 2020 during the hype of the euro’s bullishness. Just last week, the National Bank of Hungary’s governor Barnabas Virag said in a radio interview that the bank may once again cut its key interest rates by 15 basis points next month. Virag added that it would be the lowest that the rates will go for the foreseeable future. The news helped bullish investors to floor their gas pedals against bears and propel the pair. The unexpected interest rate cut from the National Bank of Hungary just recently was the first cut in four years from the bank and was clarified as not the beginning of an easing cycle which was previously speculated.
The Hungarian forint forces the euro to steady this weekThe pair is seen inching down this Tuesday as the euro’s strength falters as the risk appetite continues to go down. However, the Hungarian forint is also weakened by disappointing data from the region, resulting in a stalemate-like run for the pair today. But ultimately, the tide is expected to turn in favor of bearish investors which will help force the 50-day moving average to go even lower in the trading sessions. Investors of the Hungarian forint hopes that the 50-day MA will crash or get nearer the 200-day moving average in the coming sessions. As of now, there aren’t any significant economic reports scheduled for the Hungarian forint, so it’s very much riding the flow of other Central European currencies. Last week, the euro saw an opening against the Hungarian forint when the country reported a massively alarming drop in its April monthly trade balance.
EUR/HUF will break down from a key support lineThe pair will break down from a key support line, sending the pair lower towards a major support line. The single currency will continue to decline in the coming sessions due to disappointing results from Germany and the European Union. The EU’s largest economy reported a sharp decline in its import, export, and trade balance. Imports shrink by 16.5% while exports declined by 24.0%. Trade balance, on the other hand, was only $3.2 billion $19 billion prior to the coronavirus pandemic. However, there are some outperformers in the European Union. Hungary has been one of the fastest-growing economies in the region in 2019. However, the coronavirus pandemic causes a global recession and the OECD group now expects Hungary to contract by 8.0% this 2020. Despite this, Hungary’s finance minister reassured investors that the country is on the right path towards recovery. Mihály Varga expects Hungary to grow by 4.8% in 2021.
EURHUF at the resets of the channel 🦐The market as we expected went to retest the dynamic trend line of the channel on the 4h timeframe.
On the fundamental side we have a strong euro but the price seem to push further down to get back inside the channel.
At the moment the market is ranging between the 2 resistance zone therefore there are 2 possible scenarios:
- If the market will break above the upper structure we can look for a long position with a TP around the 350 level
- If the market will break below the blue structure we can set a short order with a TP around the lower trend line of the channel.
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Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
The Hungarian forint is deep troubleThe Hungarian forint is deep trouble. The HUF lost all its strength following the crash of the Hungarian Manufacturing PMI. Following the record low data from the said report, bulls immediately took advantage, forcing the EURHUF pair higher. Aside from the crucial data, the forint fell to its weakest levels due to the global risk-off sentiment. Unfortunately for Hungary, its manufacturing activity collapses to levels weaker than what it experienced back in the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. The Hungarian manufacturing data collapsed from 50.1% on the prior month to just 29.1% in March. The results show the initial impact of the virus on the sector. Investors of the Hungarian forint were gravely disappointed as the results came in way worse than projections of 47%. To put things into perspective, back in the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis, the Hungarian manufacturing PMI only dropped to 40%, and considering its drop now, it’s drastically worse.
EUR/HUF bounced back from a key support lineThe pair bounced back from a key support line, sending the pair higher towards its previous high. The Nemzeti Bank, Hungary’s central bank, hold onto its current benchmark interest rate of 0.90%. This was despite investors’ concern on Hungary’s surging inflation. Hungary is one of the fastest growing economies in the European Union. However, the country also holds the record for the largest inflation among EU member states in 2019. Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage predicts Italy, Denmark, and Poland to be next countries to exit the European Union. However, Hungary is not on the list. This was despite Hungary being the leader of the eastern and nationalist bloc, the Visegrad Group. Analysts claim that the reason for its exclusion was its dependency on the EU funds. Moreover, Hungary is holding the Enlargement Portfolio of the European Union. This ensures that the opposition to the Germany-Franco leadership will not be the first to secede.
EUR/HUF will reverse back in the following daysThe pair will reverse back in the following days towards a key support line. The UK, 5th largest economy in the world and 2nd in Europe, officially withdraw from the EU on January 31. Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage predict the collapse of the European Union in ten (10) years. The comment came on his last day in the EU Parliament, just two (2) days before the UK leaves. The comment is timely as the eastern bloc rallies against the Germano-Franco leadership in the bloc. It also came during the time when Germany and France’s economy is experiencing a slowdown. The two (2) countries will report their export and import figures for the month of January today, February 07. December’s results were disappointing, showing figures for the trade balance declining. This means that imports are higher than exports, a negative sign for the euro. Hungary and its fellow V4 members were the countries with the highest economic growth in the EU.
EXOTICS ARE SCARED TOO :) PENGUINS LOOK AT EURHUF 7/12/2019
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EURHUF: Strong long opportunity on the 1W Channel Up.The pair has been trading on a very strong and steady 1W Channel Up since April and has just hit the Higher Low supporting trend line (RSI = 53.917, MACD = 2.461, ADX = 44.042, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). This makes it an automatic buy opportunity for us, especially since the RSI on the 1D time frame nearly hit 30.000 and rebounded. Our Target Zone is 338.000 - 340.000.
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Maybe time for a reversal on the Euro/Hungarian Forint?The Hungarian forint recently created new lows against the euro.
Seeing as the move is overextended I will be waiting for a major breakout, retest and then continuation to the downside respectively to decide the trading position for me.
Daily is still bullish so I will prefer a very bearish daily candle before I decide to slide down with price action.