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EURHUF

EURHUFThere is no European city that offers the lowest cost of living and a modern lifestyle in a beautiful environment with historical monuments as uniquely as Budapest. A weak Forint supports tourism, although maybe the less sustainable cheap-tourism, and with an all-time EURHUF-high of 331,78 in summer 2018 it may have reached a point for a retrace. Although Hungary´s economy looks as if it is growing stable (increase in GDP, less unemployment, rising building costs) poverty in rural areas is rising faster than ten years ago, and people are not only moving to the capital but are also leaving the country for higher income. Companys that came to Hungary because of low taxes and wages now see more and more strikes and depressed work mentality. At a certain point, a low wage cannot compensate the productivity and it weakens the country in the long term. To find a balance for this "buy out" economists forecast the EURHUF to go back to an average of around 280. From the technical point of few, this may come in the next years. In the 10y supercycle, we still see an uptrend with lows getting weaker since 2015. There is potential for a breakout to cross 333 in the next month, or, and this more likely in my opinion, we will see a retrace to 305 after short-period highs around 324. For the summer I have chosen to go short. Stop 333, Target 300-305, timing: End of September 2019. This is not a forecast, it is just an idea for further happy little accidents :) Cheers
Short
by RubenJaybird
EURHUF - strong Hun eco data + carry effectFundamentals - Hun core inflation above MNB target -> rate increase probably in March - wage growth steadily above 10% - GDP growth above expectation, 5% yoy The eco picture resembles scenario the Czech case from 2017 where the central bank started raising rates (wage pressure, inflation, housing prices) and the korona strengthened 6-7%. Technical - EURHUF short trend - 318 resistance tested, move above rejected -> next support weekly 200 DMA @ 313 Trade plan - EURHUF short opened, carry in favor - Be patient, next rate decision 26th Feb
Short
by RobertSoos
EURHUF: Opportunity to sell higher.This pair has been trading inside a very long term Channel Down on 1W (RSI = 37.951, MACD = -0.084, Highs/Lows = -2.8661, B/BP = -5.8570) and has just touched the inner supporting trend line. As indicated by the July - August 2018 fractal, this trend line can provide the necessary support for a bounce towards the inner resisting trend line (321 - 322). This is an ideal short entry for the next Lower Low of the Channel near 314.00. Attention is required as 315.00 is a long term monthly support so as we approach this level make sure you secure the largest portion of your profit. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Short
by InvestingScope
The EURHUF exchange rate is 6.5% ahead...That Hungarian forint weakens. According to the technical picture, the exchange rate consists of the last two major D1 fractal points. If you cross this shaft, a larger space will open for further reinforcement. Strength can be created in a dual ascending wave structure. The target price for the first rising structure is 332HUF. Then correction follows. Then the second rising wave structure can develop, the target price reaches the 342HUF level. The current level is 6.5% stronger than the forint.
Long
by meszaros
EUR/HUF 1H Chart: Previous forecast at workThe previous forecast worked, however, the EUR/HUF exchange rate has not reached the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement at 320.26. Given that the currency pair is being pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is expected that the pair targets the lower boundary of a short-term descending channel located circa 319.90/320.00. Technical indicators for the short run also demonstrate that there is still some downside potential in the market. If given channel holds, a reverse north will occur and the pair will target the upper channel line located in the 321.00/321.50 range.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/HUF 1H Chart: Slight downside potentialThe Hungarian Forint has been appreciating against the Euro after the currency pair reversed from the upper boundary of a medium-term descending channel at 328.40. This movement has been bounded in a short-term ascending channel. Given that technical indicators still remain bearish in the short run, it is likely that a breakout from the junior channel occurs during the following days. A possible target is the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement at 320.21. This decline, however, should be short-lived, as the pair is located near the oversold territory. By the large, it is expected that the exchange rate continues its decline until the bottom of the senior-channel line is reached in the 315.00/317.00 area.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/HUF 1H Chart: Targets at 320.30The Euro has been depreciating against the Hungarian Forint gradually after the pair reversed from the upper boundary of a medium-term channel at 328.50. By the time of this analysis, the pair had breached the support level formed by a combination of the 55– an 100-hour SMAs at 324.72. The most common scenario for such case would be a surge downwards to the support cluster formed by a combination of the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement and the weekly S2 located circa 320.30. Also, an important level to look out for is the Fibonacci 38.20% retracement at 322.67.
by UnknownUnicorn890690