EUR/HUF 4H Chart: Junior pattern is brokenTwo notable developments have taken place on the charts of the EUR/HUF since the last review.
First, the medium term ascending channel pattern, which guided the surge of the Euro against the Hungarian Florin in June, has been broken. Namely, the support line of the pattern was passed on Tuesday.
Secondly, the momentum for the passing of the support level was given by the upper trend line of a massive scale ascending channel pattern, which was drawn on Tuesday.
In regards to the short term future, the rate is expected to decline down to the 325.00 mark in the near future.
EURHUF
EURHUF Buy IdeaEURHUF Buy Idea @Weekly Demand Zone (320.110 - 316.846)
Buy Limit: 320.419
Stop Loss: 316.602
Take Profit: 327.017
Risk Management = 0.01/$100
Close partially the contract once it reaches 50% of profit, Move stop loss over the entry level
Close partially the contract once it reaches 80% of the profit
EUR/HUF 1H Chart: Surge after breakoutThe Euro continues to strengthen against the Hungarian Forint since hitting a medium-term channel at 317.00 early in June. This appreciation has been bounded in a more junior channel which has guided the pair out of the senior channel. At the time of this analysis, the Euro was testing the 327.00 mark – its highest level in several years.
Technical indicators have been located in the overbought territory for two weeks, as well as they are starting to converge with the price level. These signals allow to make an assumption that a correction south could follow soon.
Bullish gains should be capped near the monthly R3 at 330.00, thus allowing bears to dominate in the market for a week or two. The nearest support of significance is the 55– and 100-period (4H) SMAs and a channel line circa 322.00. Technical indicators on the 1D chart suggest that this decline might actually prevail for a longer period of time, thus setting the 3.16 level as a possible target for mid-August.
EUR/HUF 1H Chart: Change in sentiment expectedFollowing a reversal from the senior channel on March 18, the common European currency initiated a new wave up against the Hungarian Forint. Despite breaching a five-month trend-line near 313.50 two weeks ago, the pair did not accelerate but has since remained near this line.
Given that technical indicators are starting to converge with the price movement on the four-hour chart, it is likely that the bears eventually prevail and thus push the pair lower. This scenario should be confirmed if the Euro breaches the 200-hour SMA at 314.50. Downside target is the monthly S1 and the senior channel at 311.00.
In terms of the following trading days, the rate could still move slightly higher, as it is supported by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, the monthly R1 and the weekly PP at 314.90. The nearest resistance is formed by the monthly R2 and the weekly R1 at 316.26.
EURHUF long...EURHUF long. The exchange rate has completed the correction movement. 0A wave motion begins. The target price is 316.93 HUF. Then the AB correction wave structure can follow. The bottom of which is around 315.52 HUF. Then the second rising wave BC can start, which is the price of 318,96 HUF.
EURHUF long to 316.43...EURHUF long to 316.43. The exchange rate can create a double-raised rising wave. This first wave may rise to 316.43. Then I expect a correction. The bottom of the correction is 311.72. Then the second wave waveform of the double-wave wave may develop. For this purpose, level 320.32.