EUR/HUF IdeaThe EUR/HUF exchange rate has shown volatility, with the euro generally appreciating against the forint. This trend has been influenced by high inflation in Hungary and global economic uncertainties, which have favored the euro as a safer currency.
Key Factors
Monetary Policy: The divergence between the European Central Bank's (ECB) tightening and the Magyar Nemzeti Bank's (MNB) efforts to control inflation impacts the rate.
Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth and inflation from both the Eurozone and Hungary influence the currency pair.
Geopolitical Issues: EU-Hungary relations and other geopolitical events can affect the forint's stability.
Outlook
The future of the EUR/HUF exchange rate remains uncertain. If the ECB continues to raise rates and Hungary's inflation remains high, the euro may strengthen further. Conversely, improved economic conditions in Hungary could lead to a stronger forint.
But so far we have not managed to break through the 400 level, so I expect the direction shown in the picture.
Eurhufforecast
EURHUF to the upside---------------EURHUF LONG---------------
Regarding to this "exotic" currency pair I can tell I am already in a long position with 3 trades at average price 392.17. In the long run I expect more HUF weakness but first we can go lower to 385-383 area where I plan to add 2 more trades and I am finished with the whole position building and I will be waiting for higher price around 405-407 where I will very likely close the 80-90% of the trade. Rest I will leave to give it a chance if course wants to go even higher. But above 410 or rather 415 I will consider to start building a short position. As of now I am bullish on this pair. Of course I can be wrong and there is a possibility to go down 370ish levels.
This is not a financial advice, do your own research and analysis!
#EURHUF is likely to see further upside If you like to trade exotics or Eastern EU currencies like CZK, PLN, HUF I would like to highlight the possibility of future weekness of these currencies. At the moment HUF is strengthening while the other two suffer from selling pressure. I think this is only periodical and due to only the higher interest rate of HUF but this is barely sustainable, central bank has to lower rates and it is doing it right now. This idea can be a longer swing play. Please be aware of such currencies, these are not suited to daytrade or scalp.