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Eurjpy!

Trading the BoJ meeting – it’s all about YCCTiming – 31 Oct (no set time – likely between 1 pm to 3 pm AEDT) The tide is turning in Japan and while BoJ policy change is glacial - especially when we consider the intense pace at which other G10 central banks have acted – we’re now hearing that Japanese pension funds are looking are re-weighting of domestic JGBs, with yields on long-end bonds more attractive than holding foreign bonds on a currency-hedged basis. These future re-weightings will involve huge amounts of capital and increase the perception of JPY inflows, and a lasting process of capital moving back to Japan. On the inflation front, we’ve seen Tokyo core CPI coming in line, or beating expectations, in all but 2 of the last 24 readings. With core CPI running at 3.8% and well above the bank's target of 2%, we’ll see some lumpy inflation upgrades tomorrow from the BoJ. So why not start to tighten policy? The simple reason is they haven’t prepped the market fully, and they want to garner real confidence from the Spring Shunto wage negotiations – we should start to hear the outcome of these negotiations in the weeks ahead. All eyes on changes to the YCC band While no one is expecting a move in interest rates away from NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) – that is an early 2024 story - Where we could see some policy change through the widening of the YCC (Yield Curve Control) band. At present, the BoJ cap 10yr JGB (Japan govt bonds) yields at 100bp (or 1%). If we were to see a test of the 1% cap in the near-term the BoJ would buy unlimited amounts of JGBs to confine yields to 1%. Currently, we see the 10-year JGB at 89bp, with yields up 14bp since 16 October. So, sellers have pushed JGB yields towards the cap, with the more freely moving JP 10yr swap sitting above 1% at 1.10% - it’s, therefore, clear that some in the market has positioned for the BoJ to lift the cap to 1.50%, some may even be thinking it's removed altogether. The market’s base case is for no change While 34/45 economists expect no change, given the recent flow and positioning in the JGB market, if the YCC cap remains at 1% then we could see a spike higher in USDJPY and the JPY crosses – I would guess to the tune of 30-50 pips. I would be a buyer on that JPY weakness. This fits in with the reaction we’ve seen in prior BoJ meetings, where since Jan 2022 the JPY has weakened in all but 2 meetings. Could we see the cap lifted to 1.5%? If the BoJ lifts the cap to 1.5%, one suspects this action will be accompanied by supportive rhetoric that they will continue to intervene intraday and buy JGBs to smooth out any overly violent moves. This action would see a more pronounced downside move in USDJPY, perhaps 50-70 pips (at a guess), although the likely accompanying language should limit the reaction. As always, positioning will play a part – where we currently see leveraged funds short of JPY, while real money is modestly long, and retail aggressively long JPY and seeing greater downside risk in USDJPY. One does question why the BoJ doesn’t just get rid of the YCC cap altogether. A scenario which isn't entirely impossible, but would likely send shockwaves through global bond markets, and by extension FX markets too. One could argue that YCC lacks credibility anyhow, given the BoJ seems to move the cap every time the market tests the limit. It simply results in them having to buy greater quantities of outstanding debt and cornering the market. The trade? Over the coming week or so, I see further upside risk in the JPY - My preference for the BoJ meeting though is to stand aside, but place limit sell orders above the market into the meeting. If the BoJ leaves YCC unchanged then positioning should be unwound and I get a fill - I suspect the move will be short-lived and the flow should reverse. CHFJPY is looking like one of the weaker crosses at this point, so selling spikes in CHFJPY looks compelling – and should we get closer to MOF verbal intervention I am on the right side of that too.
Short
by Pepperstone
1
CHFJPY I Potential long from supportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** CHFJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
10
TradePlus-Fx|EURUSD: seller liquidation💬 Description: The currency pair stood at the level of 1.06745 , which is resistance at the moment. In addition, a lot of interest has recently accumulated at this level, which has been distributed downward. The significance of this current price area is great. I assume that the instrument will come into balance at this level to accumulate positions and "eating" away volumes in the past. Thus, we calculate a rollback to the level of 1.06350 . You can enter from this level, but be prepared to re-enter if your stop-loss is triggered. It's best to build up the pose gradually. The purpose of growth will be to eliminate sellers who now want to trade in the direction of the trend. The level that buyers will strive to reach is 1.07500. 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 🇬🇧Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI 🇪🇺ECB President Lagarde Speaks 🇺🇸Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI 🇺🇸Richmond Manufacturing Index 🛢API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
Long
by TradePlus-Fx
11
EURJPY: BoJ continues to buy bonds irregularly to restrain the rOn October 24, the Bank of Japan announced its fifth extraordinary purchase of government bonds since adjusting its yield curve control program at the end of July. Despite these efforts, Japan`s 10-year bond yield continued to hit new highs this month, adding to the global stock market decline. "However, there is still speculation about the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments, making it difficult to recommend bond purchases. " The Bank of Japan's ultra-easy policy also contributed to the yen's depreciation, making it the weakest G10 currency this year.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
TradePlus-Fx|EURUSD: new plan💬 Description: The evening trading idea for the Euro has undergone some changes, and now it is probably best to look at selling again. Pressing towards the daily support level of 1.05194 will most likely implement sellers’ immediate plans to eliminate buyers’ stop losses, which are located below this level. There is a good target ahead for implementing the expected downward movement, namely the support area at the level of 1.04400. 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 🇪🇺Current Account 🇺🇸Initial Jobless Claims 🇺🇸Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 🇨🇦PPI 🇺🇸Existing Home Sales 🇺🇸Fed Chair Powell Speaks ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
Short
by TradePlus-Fx
29
EURJPY to find support at previous resistance?EURJPY - 24h expiry Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. Short term bias has turned positive. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. We look to Buy at 158.95 (stop at 158.45) Our profit targets will be 160.15 and 160.65 Resistance: 161.25 / 162.00 / 163.10 Support: 158.60 / 157.70 / 157.05 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
Strifor || GBPUSD-10/23/2023Preferred direction: Neutral Comment: The pound is also taking advantage of the momentary weakness in the dollar and is recovering slightly against this background. The price will most likely reach the level of 1.22370, at which we will most likely have to wait for the short entry point again. However, the second scenario is also not excluded, in which the level will be broken upward. But even in this case, the priority of sales is stronger, thus we can assume the formation of a false breakout and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the medium-term trend. Thank you for like and share your views!
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
5
Strifor || EURUSD-10/23/2023Preferred direction: Neutral Comment: The US dollar started the week with a correction and against this background, competitors began to grow. Special attention, as always, to the Euro. Here the price will approach the level of 1.06318 in the very near future. There's an obstacle waiting for buyers there. As you can see, the medium-term trend remains bearish. Therefore, for now, at the level of 1.06318 one can presumably expect a potential entry into shorts. Thank you for like and share your views!
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
4
TradePlus-Fx|EURUSD: mixed success💬 Description: The dollar , after all, retains the initiative in the market, but its competitors also have mixed success. We will designate this as a success, since intraday movements in favor of competitors are quite significant and for a trader this is a potentially good profit. At the moment, the instrument is creeping up again to the level of 1.05194, which acts as support. Short-term trades, as always, are considered in both directions. Regarding longer-term trades, we can most likely expect the price to go to 1.06350 in the very near future. At this level, there is a significant number of sellers’ stop losses; against this background, one can expect an upward impulse. Most likely this will be a false breakout, but we will know for sure a little later. 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 🇺🇸Housing Starts 🛢Crude Oil Inventories 🇺🇸Beige Book ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
Long
by TradePlus-Fx
15
EURJPY Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Short
by ShahedZare