Strifor || XAUUSD-06/11/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The trading idea for gold, proposed on Friday before the NFP, remains relevant. Here at the level of 1981.683 we expect a fall. A significant part of what was expected before the fall has already been realized, and at the beginning of this week, most likely the potential for the fall will be realized.
Thank you for like and share your views!
EURJPY
TradePlus-Fx|EURUSD: strengthening💬Description: According to the previous scenario, in a certain future (1-2 weeks) , we expected a temporary strengthening of the Euro , which is currently happening. In the near future, most likely, buyers will approach the level of 1.06745 , from where the “insidious” plan of buyers to “throw out” sellers from the market will begin. To do this, it is necessary to make a local update of the maximum, and as a result, it is most likely the price will touch the level of 1.07000.
🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔
🇪🇺CPI
🇪🇺GDP
🇨🇦GDP (m/m)
🇺🇸SP-Case-Schiller Index
🇺🇸Chicago PMI
🇺🇸Consumer Confidence
🛢API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀
👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
EURJPY Direction for current and next weekEURJPY has been showing a bullish trend on the high time frame, although it has been range bound since August 30, 2023. The price action has recently touched down on a key demand zone ranging between 157.11 and 157.32. I plan to wait for a clear bullish break of structure (BOS) along with positive price action and momentum before entering a buy position. My target for this trade would be the 158 level or higher.
While there's another demand zone below the current one, it seems reasonable to anticipate a bullish move. This expectation is based on the likelihood that the market will accumulate sufficient liquidity either at the current demand zone or the one below it before making an upward move.
JPY- The big short?JPYX has been in slight downwards range since August the 9th, we had a previous idea on how a triangle consolidation could have broken out of this range, but the consolidation broke up to come crashing back down, and now JPY had major imbalance and punctured the lower bounds of our range. In trading hours today UJ actually went down due to the fall of DXY on NFP data, however GJ showed strong rally against the YEN ect, We know would like to see some entries to trade a potential imbalance to the downside as the great fall of JPY looks set to continue.
Eurjpy: Price to continue the bullish trend? Eurjpy, have been bearish since last few months, therefore the current market pullback is short termed and that is why price moved back sharply, there are also other main factors that will influence the price of EURJPY, such as weaknening JPY as there is no sign of investors having any interest on buying the currency as long as DXY remain bullish.
Here what we think of JPY in coming weeks:
The JPY is expected to weaken against the USD in the week of October 2023. The USD/JPY pair is expected to rise to 140.00, as the US Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising interest rates, while the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, and by another 25 basis points at its November meeting. The BoJ is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at -0.1%. The divergence in monetary policy between the two central banks is expected to weigh on the JPY. Additionally, the US economy is expected to continue to grow at a faster pace than the Japanese economy, which will also support the USD/JPY pair.
Here what we think of EUR:
The euro is expected to trade in a range between 0.95 and 1.05 against the US dollar in October 2023. The currency is likely to be supported by the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September. The ECB is expected to continue to raise rates in the coming months in an effort to combat inflation. However, the euro is likely to be weighed down by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis. The conflict is likely to continue to disrupt trade and economic activity in Europe, and could lead to a recession in the region. Overall, the euro is likely to remain volatile in the coming months, and investors should be prepared for further fluctuations in the currency's value.
Want us to continue posting such ideas then please do support by following us and liking our ideas if you agree with them.
Strifor || XAUUSD-11/03/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: We also continue to consider sales in gold. On Friday, it is expected that after a slight consolidation, the metal will fall to the level of 1952; the level of 1938.915 is considered as the second target.
Thank you for like and share your views!
Strifor || GBPUSD-11/03/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The previous trading idea for the British currency also worked out and at the moment a short position is being considered again. At the level 1.22370 there is pressure resistance, at which a downward reversal is expected. Most likely, the instrument will try to grow slightly beyond this boundary, and then fall to local lows.
Thank you for like and share your views!
EURJPY possible expansionAfter a series of higher highs and higher lows, price is clearly in an uptrend. It broke the previous weak high is enormous momentum, leaving behind a huge unmitigated imbalance with a 2/3 hr supply zone. Price has been retracing slowly towards this supply zone and has currently formed an internal structure weak low as a form of liquidity that it could use to fuel it's move up to take out the latest weak swing high, thus continuing the bullish trend
EURJPY: Important Bullish Breakout & New High 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY is trading in a long-term bullish trend.
The price formed a huge ascending triangle formation on a daily,
perfectly respecting 159.8 - 160.0 resistance.
Yesterday, the pair formed an imbalance bullish candle
and successfully closed above the neckline of the pattern,
setting a new higher high higher close.
It will most likely push the prices to the new highs.
Next resistance - 162.5
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
EURJPY H4 | Bullish momentum to extend?EUR/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 159.764 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 159.281 which is a level that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 160.847 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURJPY WildCardThere have been some choppy waters flowing for the EURJPY in the recent short term. This main scenario is considering a test of the resistance zone near the orange rectangle, and in case the red curved support is broken and preferably retested there could be some room for a bearish wave towards the green rectangle where another opportunity might present itself in case the price meets a powerful support there.
Price action dictates the present and the potential future so have a lookout for any weakness or turnaround patterns that might occur in the projected support/resistance zones.
EURJPY - Long after filling the imbalance ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on EURJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for long. I want price to go a little bit lower to fill the imbalance and then to reject from bullish order block.
Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
USD/JPY: Anticipating Downward Movement at Strong ResistanceUSD/JPY is one of the most traded currency pairs in the world. The value of the USD/JPY pair is quoted in Japanese yen per one U.S. dollar. For traders, it is important to note that the pair is currently at a strong resistance level and is expected to move downwards.
Outlook
According to, the USD/JPY pair is expected to face resistance at the 151.70 area, which is its highest level since October 2022. The YTD peak could also offer some resistance to the USD/JPY pair ahead of the multi-decade top. The Bank of Japan's policy of patience sent the yen to an all-time low, and the Japanese authorities are always in close communication with U.S. counterparts on currencies and share a mutual understanding that excessive moves in the currency should be avoided. Therefore, traders should keep an eye on the pace of the decline in the Japanese yen.
Fundamental Analysis
The unwavering stance on negative rates by the Bank of Japan puts a spotlight on USD/JPY movements, amid whispers of potential interventions. The interest rate differential between the policy rates of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is an important influence on the USD/JPY exchange rate. Higher interest rates make a currency relatively more attractive because they allow for higher returns on investment.
Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is currently at a key resistance level of 151.93. A firm break above this level will target 100% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 152.66. However, for the shift to lead to a bullish trend, the price must start making higher highs and lows. That means a break above the 150.75 resistance level. Otherwise, the price might start a period of consolidation near the 150.00 key level.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair is currently at a strong resistance level and is expected to move downwards. Traders should keep an eye on the pace of the decline in the Japanese yen. The interest rate differential between the policy rates of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is an important influence on the USD/JPY exchange rate.
EURJPY H4 | Bullish reversal off 61.8% fibo?Price is falling to our buy entry at 158.92, which is a pullback support level, aligning with the 61.8% fibo retracement level and slightly below the 78.6% fibo projection. Our stop loss is at 157.59, which is below the multi-swing low support level. Take profit is at 160.4, which is a swing high resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURJPY H4 | Potential bullish bounceEURJPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 159.763
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci level
Stop Loss: 158.883
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 160.837
Why we like it:
There is a swing-high resistance level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Probable double top in EUR/JPYHello traders, EUR/JPY has rallied up to the previous resistance
level from where it could fall again.
If we can see the formation of a few bearish candlestick in the resistance
level, there would be a chance for a fall.
Potential sell EUR/JPY@159.92, SL: 160.30, TP: 158.50
EURJPY Sell on the next rebound.The EURJPY pair is on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), trading within a Channel Up since the June 28 High. It appears that smaller Megaphones within the Channel are the patterns that tend to lead the pair to its new Higher Low, that technically reaches as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That is our short target (156.500) but sell as high on the next rebound as possible. You may also pay attention to the 1D RSI, which rebounds on its 39.50 and is where the price has rebounded aggressively every time it hit it, inside 2023.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Trading the BoJ meeting – it’s all about YCCTiming – 31 Oct (no set time – likely between 1 pm to 3 pm AEDT)
The tide is turning in Japan and while BoJ policy change is glacial - especially when we consider the intense pace at which other G10 central banks have acted – we’re now hearing that Japanese pension funds are looking are re-weighting of domestic JGBs, with yields on long-end bonds more attractive than holding foreign bonds on a currency-hedged basis.
These future re-weightings will involve huge amounts of capital and increase the perception of JPY inflows, and a lasting process of capital moving back to Japan.
On the inflation front, we’ve seen Tokyo core CPI coming in line, or beating expectations, in all but 2 of the last 24 readings. With core CPI running at 3.8% and well above the bank's target of 2%, we’ll see some lumpy inflation upgrades tomorrow from the BoJ.
So why not start to tighten policy? The simple reason is they haven’t prepped the market fully, and they want to garner real confidence from the Spring Shunto wage negotiations – we should start to hear the outcome of these negotiations in the weeks ahead.
All eyes on changes to the YCC band
While no one is expecting a move in interest rates away from NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) – that is an early 2024 story - Where we could see some policy change through the widening of the YCC (Yield Curve Control) band. At present, the BoJ cap 10yr JGB (Japan govt bonds) yields at 100bp (or 1%). If we were to see a test of the 1% cap in the near-term the BoJ would buy unlimited amounts of JGBs to confine yields to 1%.
Currently, we see the 10-year JGB at 89bp, with yields up 14bp since 16 October. So, sellers have pushed JGB yields towards the cap, with the more freely moving JP 10yr swap sitting above 1% at 1.10% - it’s, therefore, clear that some in the market has positioned for the BoJ to lift the cap to 1.50%, some may even be thinking it's removed altogether.
The market’s base case is for no change
While 34/45 economists expect no change, given the recent flow and positioning in the JGB market, if the YCC cap remains at 1% then we could see a spike higher in USDJPY and the JPY crosses – I would guess to the tune of 30-50 pips. I would be a buyer on that JPY weakness.
This fits in with the reaction we’ve seen in prior BoJ meetings, where since Jan 2022 the JPY has weakened in all but 2 meetings.
Could we see the cap lifted to 1.5%?
If the BoJ lifts the cap to 1.5%, one suspects this action will be accompanied by supportive rhetoric that they will continue to intervene intraday and buy JGBs to smooth out any overly violent moves. This action would see a more pronounced downside move in USDJPY, perhaps 50-70 pips (at a guess), although the likely accompanying language should limit the reaction.
As always, positioning will play a part – where we currently see leveraged funds short of JPY, while real money is modestly long, and retail aggressively long JPY and seeing greater downside risk in USDJPY.
One does question why the BoJ doesn’t just get rid of the YCC cap altogether. A scenario which isn't entirely impossible, but would likely send shockwaves through global bond markets, and by extension FX markets too. One could argue that YCC lacks credibility anyhow, given the BoJ seems to move the cap every time the market tests the limit. It simply results in them having to buy greater quantities of outstanding debt and cornering the market.
The trade?
Over the coming week or so, I see further upside risk in the JPY - My preference for the BoJ meeting though is to stand aside, but place limit sell orders above the market into the meeting. If the BoJ leaves YCC unchanged then positioning should be unwound and I get a fill - I suspect the move will be short-lived and the flow should reverse. CHFJPY is looking like one of the weaker crosses at this point, so selling spikes in CHFJPY looks compelling – and should we get closer to MOF verbal intervention I am on the right side of that too.
EURJPY - Bearish Scenario 📉Hello Traders !
On The Daily Time Frame, The EURJPY Price Reached a Resistance Level (159.761 - 159.324).
Currently, The Price Formed an Ascending Channel.
We Have a Bearish Scenario 📉
If The Market Breaks The Support Line and Closes Below That,
I Will Sell On Retest...
TARGET: 31950.0🎯