Eurjpyprediction
EURJPY: The bulls!Predicting continuation of the uptrend
EUR/JPY is a forex quote that represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the Japanese Yen. Traders like to borrow the low-yielding Yen to fund carry trades and buy higher-yielding currencies like the Euro during times of optimism. However, during times of market stress, investors tend to avoid carry trades. EUR/JPY is affected by shifts in global economic performance and stability. The Eurozone debt crisis and the Bank of Japan's anti-deflation policy introduced in 2013 also contribute to the pair's volatility.
EURJPY POTENTIAL PROGRESS FORMATION IN PROGRESSWe can see that the pair has turned bullish after a short correction. We have also identified certain patterns which further
support our bullish basis. These have been listed below:
1: The pair is in a strong uptrend as the price is making new highs
2: Trendline breakout
3: Pennant pattern breakout
We will wait for the price to correct on the lower time frames after the trendline breakout then only can we start to look for
reasons to enter long. We do not take trades with less than 1 to 3 risk rewards. If we get stopped out , we follow our trading plan as
we wait for a new setup to form. We only take one entry per setup and do re-enter when stopped out as we see this as revenge/over-trading.
EURJPY - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW#EURJPY
- Currently there is an UP SIDE BIAS for EURJPY. XXXJPY CURRENCIES BUY very fast in previous weeks with JPY WEAK AFTER BOJ MEETING. Somehow it is being RECOVERED again. MARKET RISK is still ON. VIX is going DOWN, XXXJPY CURRENCIES SHOULD BE BUY FAST NOW.
- Some NEWS coming for the USD will help strengthen the EURO. Because the reason for that is because the NEWS related to USD is quite weak and USD has got a weak SENTIMENT. But in the future, if the RATE HIKE SENTIMENT is PRICED by the ECB, EURO may be BUY more.
EURJPY can be SELL at 145.95 level before BUY. After that you can BUY at 152.98 LEVEL. If the MAIN STRUCTURES BREAK somehow, EURJPY price can definitely be BUY at 152.98 LEVELS.
EURJPY 21May2023last week I gave a hint that when the blue line is broken by the price then most likely the bulls are back on track. Next week is likely to be bullish by looking at the wave a-b-c notation that has been formed, seeing also the bullish slope of around 45 degrees is also an indication of a strong bullish entry.
EurJpy- Short term and medium term trading opportunitiesA few days ago I've written that EurJpy could resume its up move.
Indeed, after the confirmation of 146.50 as strong support, the pair started to rise and reached 149.50.
At this moment bulls look tired and in need of a correction, and this could provide short-term traders the opportunity to trade on the sell side.
As long as 149.50 is intact there are high chances of a drop and the pair could dive 100+ pips.
On the other hand, for swing traders, this correction could be an opportunity to join the long term trend at a better price and target, as explained in my previous analysis, 151 recent high.
EURJPY: Entry for seller!Fundamental Overview
The market is increasingly betting on a weaker USD/JPY. This prediction is based on two main factors - the likelihood of a significant reduction in Fed interest rates and concerns regarding the stability of the US financial system. Additionally, there is the unpredictability of a potential change in BoJ policy, which could significantly impact the value of the yen. We anticipate that at the upcoming BoJ meeting on June 16th, the yield curve target may be shortened from 10-year to 5-year JGB yields, resulting in a significant increase in 10-year JGB yields and a corresponding strengthening of the yen.
EURJPY shorts on Global Macro expectations The reasons that back my case are simple.
First of all, we need to take into consideration that Yen is a high risk off asset, with yen longs taking place whenever there is a big uncertainty in the world, or a black swan event unfolding.
If you believe that a big crisis is yet about to be seen then you need to consider shorting EURJPY , I personally do for the reasons below.
Yen Long Factors
-New Governor UEDA taking head and within the next meeting of 28th of April along with market expectations Yen is expected to appreciate on expectations that the bank will widen the Yield curve band or even
will take it off. Any positive tone on Interest rates will be considered at the meeting as well.
-Sharp decreases in headline inflation such as the one from 6 down to 5% are signs of a big incoming crisis. Usually, when we run into recession, inflation is drastically moving to the downside, this drugs US Yields lower on expectations for more rate cuts taking place from FED this year.
-U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism showing a bleak picture. Even though this indicator is considered a 1-star indicator from calendar news, it is the omen of the US unemployment rates and Jobless claims climbing up while US NFP and Jolts data moving lower. So on the aggregate, it is the first sign before US Labor data start showing a very bad picture.
EUR Short Factors
-EUR Large Speculators are overbought on EUR across the board and this shows that if and when they are about to unfold their positions we are going to see a big short playing on EURO , it just needs a big catalyst to take place for them to follow through.
Broke Resistance ie 143.50 and now looks GoodAs I told you guys in my previous Chart (Link attached)
That after placing low around 142.50 EURJPY mentioned resistance was 143.50 and after breaking it successfully now price is in our favor and running in 150+ Pips of Profit...
Eyeing towards its Ultimate Target of 146...
Congratulations to those who took profit out of this analysis...
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EURJPY - My view on EJ for this week!Hello everyone! Hope you all had a great weekend and Ramadan Kareem all.
For this week I am looking for sells on FX:EURJPY . Waiting for multiple confluences in LTF before entry. Expecting price to move as drawn in lines where market will test previous high region from monthly resistance.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. Together we win!
Regards,
Enzo