EUR/NOK 1H Chart: TriangleThe EUR/NOK currency pair has been stranded in an ascending channel in force since mid-July. The latest confirmation was provided in this session when the price halted near the 9.33 mark for the second time in two days.
Being a bullish pattern, this ascending channel should guide the pair for an upside breakout that may occur next week. However, the latest two peaks have failed to reach the upper channel boundary, thus suggesting that bulls might have lost their strength.
Thus, the 9.36 area should be observed carefully. In case the rate does not surpass the short-term down-trend, a bearish breakout is the most likely option.
EURNOK
EURNOK Daily Price-Action Positive for LongsDisclosure: 2 x RM Long Positions. Prices not revealed to Public.
I like long EURNOK and am putting my money where my mouse is.
What I see:
(1) Break-Out above Upper-Bound of Falling Weekly Channel.
(2) Successful Back-Test & Continuation of (1) @ 9.22 level and 50% Fib Retracement of (1).
Why I like the Trade:
(A) Price Action: Strong Daily bounce at (2); Technical levels held; Reversal & Momentum challenging resistance levels.
(B) Behaviour: Bulls encouraged by follow-through; new shorts pressured to cover.
(C) Risk Management: 50% of position treated as short-term scalp; can easily adjust the capital exposure <> initial outlay.
(D) Trade Selection: Trend-following; Back-Test; Continuation-Confirmation all align with my process.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Channel DownThe European common currency is trading in a channel down against the Norwegian Krone. The given pattern is a relatively narrow short-term formation that can be considered as a part of an intermediate ascending channel.
The rate reached the lower channel boundary of both patterns mid-session and therefore is expected to dash above the 9.32 mark to initiate a new wave upwards in line with the senior formation. Trend indicators demonstrate weakening of the down-trend, while other technicals support an upward breakout.
This movement should be confirmed when the pair surpasses the 55-hour SMA circa 9.33 or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 9.3380. In case the rate still manages to trade lower before the predicted reversal, it might be halted by the weekly S2 located near the four-month low at 9.25.
Monthly short set up on EURNOKMonthly candle analysis suggests EURNOK may move lower. This together with Brexit turmoil and economic instability in the world will help propel this pair down.
This instrument is now on my watch list for the month of August. I'll be looking for short signals on the daily time frame. Once I get a signal I will attempt to make entry on the 15 minute chart during London.
USDNOK is facing a crossroadAs mentioned last week, we did not have any clear direction and the pair reflects high volatility for time being. However, we have due to French election touched the upper trendline since the highs in 2016 and now reacted down.
From a weekly timeframe, a weekly close below 8,60-8,58 would suggest some kind of retracement, where support is found at 8,40 and lows 8,30's. Several other indicators are also now slowly turing down, which could support a lower move.
In that matter, a short-setup could offer a fair risk-reward.
Trade setup:
Short entry from 8,58-8,60. Stop loss if we close above 8,65 on a daily timeframe.
Target 1 is 8,40 and target 2 is 8,30.
Play it safe and goodluck!
Important level coming up in USDNOKSince the lows in february this year, the trend has been upwards with higher highs and higher lows. But recent top above 8,65 came with a negativ divergence and now we might face a possible trend-change. However, the level around 8,52-8,50 should be key for the next big move in USDNOK. Failure to hold this level, we will confirm a new counter trend with lower highs and lower lows.
The levels to watch for, as in bull/bear line is 8,52-8,50. On the upside we have great resistance just above 8,65, and while on the downside we should find great support 8,41-8,43.
Play it safe untill we see a better trade-setup, offering a better risk/reward.
EU Losing MomentumEU have had a good run lately, but it seems over, for now at least. EURNOK is a bit special to me. Won a lot, lost a bit, yet, I keep fixating on it because of the large swings and very clear formations it makes. Finally it has come to a point when it is either breaking out short or consolidating. Looking at the past six days, it couldn't make new tops, it's sliding downwards. To add on that, short-term MACD, RSI and mid-term Stochastic seems to agree on most charts, that it's going downwards.
EURNOK New BreakoutA breakout just happened on this pair. I'm only in for a small amount, because EUR has released strong numbers and volume isn't strong. It have been building up cash for over a weak now. But it's a solid breakout, with an exhausted candle yesterday. There is always the chance it might pull back a bit, in US market open, so you could wait. If RSI is diving under 25.0000 I might add to my short position.