EURNOK
#EURNOK bear #crabWith Oil price consolidating a bit Norwegian Krona stopped falling. Since NOK is heavily exposed to Oil, any bullish Oil PA will push the NOK up. $Statoil being the Norwegian largest oil company has a share of over 22% in the Norway stock index OBX. OBX is declining, Statoil shares shows a little recovery, so being long on NOK makes sense from the fundamental standpoint.
Possible HS-formation in EURNOKEURNOK has a possible HS-formation. Only a break and close below 8.40 will confirm this possible trade-idea. Resistance is around 8.50. Objective pricetarget if we get a break of 8.40 will be 8.15, while a stop loss should be executed if we close above 8.50.
Furthermore, we are currently testing the positive trend since last bottom at 8.10 (4H chart). Will be interesting upcoming days!
Comeback for EURNOK?The NOK has depreciated rapidly in the past week on the back of weaker data and falling
oil prices. The market is now pricing in a roughly 50/50 chance of Norges Bank cutting
its policy rate at the December meeting. All things are possible, but this seems over the
top.
The NOK is much weaker than Norges Bank assumed in September and banks have
cut their mortgage rates. On the other hand, global interest rates have fallen and growth
has been slightly weaker than expected. On balance, though, Norges Bank would need to
revise down its growth projections for mainland GDP next year from 2.25% in September
towards 1% for current market expectations to be justified and we think that is really
pushing it.
With inflation close to target, house prices rising and unemployment largely
unchanged, it also seems unlikely that Norges Bank will be proactive and cut interest
rates in anticipation. The slide in the NOK therefore seems to be an overreaction.
Trading Idea:
Short on bounces up against 8.48-8.55 with a target price of 8,15. Stop loss if we close above 8.55 on weekly timeframe.
EURNOK - ready for another test of recents lows?Since July this year, the trend in EURNOK has been on the downside with lower highs and lower lows. However, the pair has managed to bounce off 8.10 level each time and is now testing short term horizontal resistance around 8.20.
If break and close above this resistance (8.20), we might see 8.24/8.25 level, before recent peak just above 8.30/8.32. Furthermore, with weak fundamentals in Europe, we should see overall weakness in EUR, which again supports a stronger NOK.
We want to add 1/3 of wanted position at current level (8.1950+) and add more if/when we see 8.24/8.25 with a stop loss if we close above 8.28 on daily basis.
A possible trigger for Norwegian Krone this week is CPI numbers for September upcoming friday due 10:00 CET.
Safe trading!
More Norwegian strenght (NOK) against Euro (EUR)?After the sharp drop last week, the retracement/pullback has been rather weak in EURNOK. After todays run-up, we have now retraced only 23.6%. Furthermore, we have a possible bear-flag under development in 4H timechart. If we break this flag, we should see 8.10 as a possible stop before heading even lower end of 2014 (maybe below 8.00).
Time will show!
EURNOK - My personal fav.I stumbled upon EURNOK over some chance discussions with some members here couple of weeks ago. I took on a short position back then and ever since I kept adding to my positions. This pair also gives +ve rollovers for shorts.
This is the weekly chart, which validates the short positions.
A descending triangle and RSI divergence on the weekly charts. I don't think its too late to get in on this pair.
Today Norges bank had its MPC and it kept interest rates unchanged. There is a bit of recovery, despite being slow. Eurozone... I don't have to say much. Perhaps today's ECB press conference will give clues. Look for selling opportunities on this pair.