EURNOK
The EUR/NOK is heading downwards towards its support levelThe euro to Norwegian krone exchange rate is heading downwards towards its support level. The pair is expected to once again reach its support by the end of the month as bearish investors take advantage of the euro’s weakness. The move should further push the 50-day moving average even lower and closer to the 200-day moving average. Bearish investors are hoping to run away this time and break past the pair’s support level as they try to recover their major losses from earlier this year. The Norwegian krone should take control of the euro as the risk sensitivity in the market dies. As reported last week, the bleak update of the United States Federal Reserve has shifted the dynamics in the global market, causing risk-linked currencies such as the euro to falter against other currencies in the market. And as for the Norwegian krone, the prices of crude oil in the commodity market is preventing it from buckling against the single currencies.
EUR/NOK will continue to move lower in the following daysThe pair will continue to move lower in the following days towards its 02 January 2020 price level. Norway is bound to recover earlier and faster than other countries in the European region. This was due to its immediate response after the coronavirus outbreak became pandemic. Norway was among the first countries to shut their border and implement social distancing rules. It is also among the first to restore business operations following its successful combat against COVID-19. Analysts believe that the 11.4% contraction in March and April was the peak of Norway’s economic downturn. Also, a major part of the decline was attributed to the slump of crude oil prices. But now that the oil markets are recovering along with Norway’s economy, a robust recovery is expected. On the other hand, the single currency led by Germany continues to suffer on the weak economic figures and activity in Berlin and Paris.
The fundamentals are mainly supporting the Norwegian kroneRight now, the fundamentals are mainly supporting the Norwegian krone, helping it to recover against the single currency. Technically speaking, the krone is a commodity currency, meaning that it’s very much affected by how the crude market moves. And looking at the current status of crude, it appears that prices are currently steady as of the moment. Another factor that’s supporting the Norwegian krone is its correlation with other currencies in the region which are also seen appreciating in the previous sessions. Also, experts believe that the Norwegian central bank won’t prefer negative rates. Instead, local economists believe that the Norges Bank will opt to boost liquidity in the market. With this momentum, bearish investors are widely expected to steadily and gradually push the euro to the Norwegian krone exchange rate to its support level. Such a move will further force the 50-day moving average lower and nearer the 200-day moving average.
ridethepig | NOK Market Commentary 2020.05.21A very technical environment here with Germany away from their desks, support clearly defined at the 10.8x lows while resistance towards 11.05x will cap the highs.
With Crude starting to reach interesting levels for sellers the NOK rally will begin to unwind. The supply side can rebalance as much as they like, it will not offset the demand shock:
EURNOK 4HWe've got a break of an ascending trend line. We've got a head and shoulders pattern. I'd wait for a confirmed break and retest of the H&S pattern/horizontal line before entering a sell.
EUR/NZD : Watch this Larger BearFlag and Sell We can see drop continue after forming this larger bearflag and sell.
ThankYou
EURNOK BullishEURNOK looking very bullish here, had a massive push up and now falling and found support on the 61.8. On smaller timeframes also had another small push up and found support on that 61.8 fib again. I think a retest of at least 50 or 38 fib levels as marked.
Global demand for EURO fallingI compared EURO value to all major world economies outside of European Economic area (EEA) for an accurate evaluation of euro currency on global scale (USA, Canada, China, India, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, Brasil, Australia and South Korea).
And this is what we get in times of COVID crisis:
When COVID started in Wuhan and China international demand for EURO started to increase rapidly. Euro broke yearly ceiling.
But as COVID started to infect EU in March uncertainity started and now we broke the demand line and started a bearish trend which will continue as we broke and closed below April support S3 (below April value).
OBX shortWith falling oil prices and corona-virus spreading like a wildfire, we are likely to see the obx drop even more. It does not look like Saudi or Russia is planning to stop dumping the oilprice either. The Norweigan krone is has had a huge loss because of the oil price, and foreign investors leave the norwegian market when the price of NOK vs EUR/USD is rising. The Euro has now risen more than 13% in the last 29 days
