EURNOK
The fundamentals are mainly supporting the Norwegian kroneRight now, the fundamentals are mainly supporting the Norwegian krone, helping it to recover against the single currency. Technically speaking, the krone is a commodity currency, meaning that it’s very much affected by how the crude market moves. And looking at the current status of crude, it appears that prices are currently steady as of the moment. Another factor that’s supporting the Norwegian krone is its correlation with other currencies in the region which are also seen appreciating in the previous sessions. Also, experts believe that the Norwegian central bank won’t prefer negative rates. Instead, local economists believe that the Norges Bank will opt to boost liquidity in the market. With this momentum, bearish investors are widely expected to steadily and gradually push the euro to the Norwegian krone exchange rate to its support level. Such a move will further force the 50-day moving average lower and nearer the 200-day moving average.
ridethepig | NOK Market Commentary 2020.05.21A very technical environment here with Germany away from their desks, support clearly defined at the 10.8x lows while resistance towards 11.05x will cap the highs.
With Crude starting to reach interesting levels for sellers the NOK rally will begin to unwind. The supply side can rebalance as much as they like, it will not offset the demand shock:
EURNOK 4HWe've got a break of an ascending trend line. We've got a head and shoulders pattern. I'd wait for a confirmed break and retest of the H&S pattern/horizontal line before entering a sell.
EUR/NZD : Watch this Larger BearFlag and Sell We can see drop continue after forming this larger bearflag and sell.
ThankYou
EURNOK BullishEURNOK looking very bullish here, had a massive push up and now falling and found support on the 61.8. On smaller timeframes also had another small push up and found support on that 61.8 fib again. I think a retest of at least 50 or 38 fib levels as marked.
Global demand for EURO fallingI compared EURO value to all major world economies outside of European Economic area (EEA) for an accurate evaluation of euro currency on global scale (USA, Canada, China, India, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, Brasil, Australia and South Korea).
And this is what we get in times of COVID crisis:
When COVID started in Wuhan and China international demand for EURO started to increase rapidly. Euro broke yearly ceiling.
But as COVID started to infect EU in March uncertainity started and now we broke the demand line and started a bearish trend which will continue as we broke and closed below April support S3 (below April value).
OBX shortWith falling oil prices and corona-virus spreading like a wildfire, we are likely to see the obx drop even more. It does not look like Saudi or Russia is planning to stop dumping the oilprice either. The Norweigan krone is has had a huge loss because of the oil price, and foreign investors leave the norwegian market when the price of NOK vs EUR/USD is rising. The Euro has now risen more than 13% in the last 29 days
EURNOK suffers the worst sell-off in a few decadesEURNOK Forex cross pair (Euro versus Norwegian Krone) has broken all time high again after months. A previous monthly demand imbalance gained control last June 2018 and this cross pair has been rallying ever since.
Why has Norway’s Krone suffered the worst drop in half a century? Well, by doing supply and demand analysis on the monthly timeframe we can see that EURNOK forex cross pair was in a clear uptrend on. There is no reason to go short, only longs are possible by following the big picture monthly uptrend. We can see in the attachment a very strong monthly impulse around 10.35 at (1) that could eventually become an imbalance if price continues like that.
We don’t need to pay attention to Forex fundamental analysis if we are trading a supply and demand imbalances strategy and trading with the bigger picture trend. It’s taken for granted that if you trade the very small timeframes, fundamental analysis and news events will kick you out of the trade.
EURNOK Idea until next seasonability of structural liquidityArea of working until next seasonability of structural liquidity, between ATH of october 2019 and ATH 2014.
EURNOK - mean reversionNOK got undervalued due to the OIL price decline
Norges Bank interest rate: 1.5% vs ECB 0% -> carry favors NOK
Inflation is also higher in Norway
I went short on technical + fundamental factors coinciding.
