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Euro-dollar

EURUSD bullsGerman PMI figures outperformed expectations, reaching 46.7, strengthening MoM by a value of 1.6 indexed. Whilst this is still firmly in contractionary territory for the German economy and the number of new orders remains heavily depressed, It was still a kernel of good news for Germany and the wider Eurozone. By the same token, Eurozone manufacturing PMI figures also exceeded expectations and suggested that the worst of the energy supply shock had subsided, the worst energy costs being seen in August and showing a slight decline as European nations reacted. This optimism was undoubtedly partly responsible for EUR/USD’s strong rally yesterday, EUR gaining 1% against the greenback in a days trading. ©Caxton EURUSD is trending higher on the H1, so find a fundamental narrative that fits the price action :)
Long
by Macrobriefing
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE At their previous meeting the ECB hiked by another 75bsp, and with HICP >9% it should keep the bank hiking for now. ECB sources notes the bank is planning to discuss QT at their Dec meeting. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/Bund spread breaches 2.55%, markets will have to wait and see whether TPI can make a difference. The main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook, but there are a few different conflicting drivers. Gas supply from Russia remain closed (EUR negative), but energy reform plans have seen EU gas prices lose ground (EUR positive). The war in Ukraine remains a risk (EUR negative), but recent victories by Ukraine and the recapture of the strategic city of Kherson has been a more positive development (EUR positive). In the week ahead, the main highlight will be Flash HICP data. With money markets pricing in 75bsp for the December meeting, any unexpected misses in HICP could see rates markets lower their expectations for the Dec meeting. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, better overall risk sentiment that pressures the USD should be supportive for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Escalation in Ukraine war that risks NATO involvement. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, continued sour risk sentiment that supports the USD should be negative for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent data pointing to a higher likelihood of a EZ recession. Current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply) outweigh the positives. Recession risks remain high and means incoming data like growth & inflation will be watched closely. For now, the focus for the EUR is on multiple fronts from energy to policy to geopolitics, which means we don’t want to be hasty with looking for new EUR trades and want a very clear reason and catalyst to trade the currency in the short-term. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, we have a few of important data points such as ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP on Friday. However, also pay close attention to the scheduled speech from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. The speech from Fed Chair Powell will be important. If he delivers the same stern hawkish tone that accompanied the prior FOMC presser, it can provide upside for the USD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
5
InvestMate|EUR/USD Another wave of declines💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Another wave of declines. 💶💵Post is a direct continuation of the previous post: 💶💵After a beautiful wave of declines, the American session brought increases. 💶💵They stopped at first line of resistance. Resulting from the cluster of the level 0.5 of the entire downward wave and 0.382 of the largest upward correction. 💶💵I determined the first support zone based on the cluster of the level 1.272 of the current downward wave and the double bottom. 💶💵I determined the second support zone based on the cluster of the 1.272 level of the largest upward correction after the downward wave and the 1:1 level of the same upward wave. 💶💵The scenario I'm playing out is a rebound from the resistance zone and a continuation of the southward movement. 💶💵*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
12
EUR/USD is approaching critical resistance - tighten stopsEUR/USD generally remains pretty bid, but it is approaching tough overhead resistance at 1.0636/39 - the 2020 low and the 55-week ma and we suspect that the market is going to struggle to clear this tough area of resistance, you might want to tighten stops on long positions. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
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Long
by The_STA
17
InvestMate|EUR/USD One more attempt💶💵💶💵EUR/USD One more attempt. 💶💵After first predicting the dips beautifully, and then rushing too early to catch the next downtrend wave on EUR/USD after which the price went up some more. 💶💵Time has come for another attempt, this time from a better ceiling. 💶💵I still think a correction on EUR/USD at this point is very likely. 💶💵The support level remains unchanged, we still expect the range of the largest correction 1:1 and the 0.382 level of the whole upward wave. 💶💵This time we move the resistance zone to peaks around the 0.786 and 0.886 levels. 💶💵The scenario I'm playing out is to start a price decline to reach the support zone marked on the chart, taking into account possible corrections along the way. 💶💵*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
16
InvestMate|December the worst month for bulls on the US dollar🐻December statistically the weakest month for the US Dollar, a statistic since 2000 against the EUR/USD. Relative to statistics, December is the month in which EUR/USD gains the most. The average EUR/USD increase for the month is over 1.58%. This year there is a really good chance that the rule could be confirmed. December statistically the weakest month for the US Dollar, a statistic since 2000 against the EUR/USD. Relative to statistics, December is the month in which EUR/USD gains the most. The average EUR/USD increase for the month is over 1.5% This year there is a really good chance that the rule could be confirmed Historically, the increases have been: 2000: +8% 2001: -0.37% 2002: +5.59% 2003: +5.04% 2004: +1.91% 2005: +0.44% 2006: -0.3% 2007: -0.3% 2008: +9.75% 2009: -4.48% 2010: +3.15% 2011: -3.62% 2012: +1.54% 2013: +1.43% 2014: -2.93% 2015: +2.84% 2016: -0.66% 2017: +0.85% 2018: +0.84% 2019: +1.8% 2020: +2.45% 2021: +0.4% 2022: ? Average: +1.589% 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Education
by InvestMate
1
InvestMate|EUR/USD next wave of weakness💶💵💶💵EUR/USD next wave of weakness. 💶💵As in previous posts I have predicted declines on EUR/USD: 💶💵This time we have a period of correction which, in my opinion, will end with a continuation of the weakening of the euro against the dollar. 💶💵It is worth emphasising that we are currently in the process of performing a correction of the uptrend. 💶💵A current local uptrend is a correction of a downtrend impulse. 💶💵A strong resistance zone that can hold the euro has been determined on the basis of the zone between the level of 0.382 and 0.5 of the entire downward wave, the price has repeatedly bounced from this zone, which strengthens its credibility. 💶💵The support zone that I think the price will go to in the near future was determined by a cluster of two measurements. The first is the 0.382 level of the entire upward wave and the second level is the 1:1 range of the largest downward correction in long term up trend wave. 💶💵The scenario I am playing out is a decline from the resistance zone to the support zone where I will look for signals to continue the uptrend. 💲*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
4
InvestMate|EUR/USD Level for the coming days💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Level for the coming days. 💶💵Post is a direct continuation of my previous posts on EUR/USD against which my opinion hasn't been changed. 💶💵After I perfectly predicted declines to the first support level: 💶💵The time has come for something local. 💶💵Applying technical analysis, I have set a support zone that can be reached within the next few days. 💶💵This is very likely looking at the EUR/USD gaining willingness to fall. 💶💵The zone was determined based on the fibo level of 0.382 of the entire upward wave marked on the chart. We can expect a price stop here or even do an upward correction. 💶💵The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the price drop to this zone, not excluding minor corrections along the way. 💶💵*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
15
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE At their previous meeting the ECB hiked by another 75bsp, and with HICP >9% it should keep the bank hiking for now. ECB sources notes the bank is planning to discuss QT at their Dec meeting. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/Bund spread breaches 2.55%, markets will have to wait and see whether TPI can make a difference. The main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook, but there are a few different conflicting drivers. Gas supply from Russia remain closed (EUR negative), but energy reform plans have seen EU gas prices lose ground (EUR positive). The war in Ukraine remains a risk (EUR negative), but recent victories by Ukraine and the recapture of the strategic city of Kherson has been a more positive development (EUR positive). In the week ahead, flash PMIs for France & Germany will be the only major calendar highlight POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, better overall risk sentiment that pressures the USD should be supportive for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Escalation in Ukraine war that risks NATO involvement. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, continued sour risk sentiment that supports the USD should be negative for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent data pointing to a higher likelihood of a EZ recession. Current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply) outweigh the positives. Recession risks remain high and means incoming data like growth & inflation will be watched closely. For now, the focus for the EUR is on multiple fronts from energy to policy to geopolitics, which means we don’t want to be hasty with looking for new EUR trades and want a very clear reason and catalyst to trade the currency in the short-term. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, the only major data highlight is the S&P Global Flash PMIs and perhaps the FOMC meeting minutes. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
3
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE At their previous meeting the ECB hiked by another 75bsp, and with HICP >9% it should keep the bank hiking for now. ECB sources notes the bank is planning to discuss QT at their Dec meeting. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/Bund spread breaches 2.55%, markets will have to wait and see whether TPI can make a difference. The main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook, but there are a few different conflicting drivers. Gas supply from Russia remain closed (EUR negative), but energy reform plans have seen EU gas prices lose ground (EUR positive). The war in Ukraine remains a risk (EUR negative), but recent victories by Ukraine and the recapture of the strategic city of Kherson has been a more positive development (EUR positive). In the week ahead, flash PMIs for France & Germany will be the only major calendar highlight POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, better overall risk sentiment that pressures the USD should be supportive for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Escalation in Ukraine war that risks NATO involvement. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, continued sour risk sentiment that supports the USD should be negative for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent data pointing to a higher likelihood of a EZ recession. Current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply) outweigh the positives. Recession risks remain high and means incoming data like growth & inflation will be watched closely. For now, the focus for the EUR is on multiple fronts from energy to policy to geopolitics, which means we don’t want to be hasty with looking for new EUR trades and want a very clear reason and catalyst to trade the currency in the short-term. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, the only major data highlight is the S&P Global Flash PMIs and perhaps the FOMC meeting minutes. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsEUR – The single currency was volatile on Tuesday. Weakening across the board as investors tried to interpret reports that stray Russian missiles may have hit NATO member Poland, killing two people. According to Reuters, two people died in an explosion in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine. At the same time, the Associated Press cited an unnamed senior US intelligence official saying that the Russian missiles had crossed into NATO member Poland.
by thunderpips
5
InvestMate|EUR/USD Swing trade to 1:1 level💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Swing trade to 1:1 level 💶💵Post is a direct continuation of the last post 💶💵Taking a closer look, we are in an interesting place to reach the 1:1 level set by the last largest downward wave. 💶💵I determined the resistance zone based on the cluster of levels of 0.236 of the upward impulse and 0.618 of the entire downward wave. 💶💵I determined the support zone based on the cluster of the 1:1 level of the entire downward wave and the outer level of 1.272 of the entire upward wave. 💶💵The scenario I am playing out is a decline to reach the support level I have set 💶💵*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
2
InvestMate|EUR/USD is it a trend reversal yet?💶EUR/USD is it a trend reversal yet? 💶I invite you to read my technical insight this time on the EUR/USD pair. 💶After I had perfectly reinserted the upside, catching the end of the correction and the continuation of the upward momentum: 💶The time has come to predict the dips. 💶Looking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past. 💶 Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling the latest readings on 3 November showed us falling to levels of 6.6% compared to last year's reading of 6.7%. 💶 Ahead of us next week, on 17 November to be exact, are the readings on inflation , which stood at 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on inflation slowing down. In the coming months. 💶 Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last counci meeting on 27 October to levels of 2% 💶For fundamentals on the dollar, I refer you to previous material on the dollar 💶I will present in turn some of the tools I used on my chart. 💶1. Downward channel from peak to bottom 💶2. Fibo measure from peak to bottom 💶3. Fibo measure from bottom to current peak 💶4. I determined a support zone at 0.382 of the upward wave of the current impulse and where the price reacted before. 💶5. I determined a resistance zone at the 0.382 level of the overall downtrend and the area where the price reacted. 💶The scenario I am currently playing out is a downward scenario from the downward channel edge and the level where the price previously reacted (marked with arrows). Up to the support level (green zone) 💶*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
8
InvestMate|EUR/USD Amazing precision💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Amazing precision. 💶💵Post is a direct continuation of the previous post on EUR/USD in which I wrote about the upcoming correction. 💶💵W This time we will take a closer look at the whole situation and show you how, using technical analysis tools, I have determined a very likely place for the end of the downward correction. 💶💵In turn. 💶💵I started by delineating the uptrend channel from which the price today broke out to return to the middle again after an intense reaction 💶💵Then I measured the entire upward impulse using a fibo grid. In order to find potential support points. 💶💵I measured the largest correction in the uptrend impulse in order to determine the range of the largest 1:1 correction. 💶💵With the help of the fibo level cluster of 0.382 and the range of the 1:1 correction, I determined a very likely support in the future. We can see that the price has found strong resistance at these levels in the past. 💶💵Adding the fundamentals, which you can read more about in my previous post on this pair: 💶💵We are looking at a fairly shallow correction of 38.2% of the entire upward wave that could take place. 💶💵The scenario I am playing out is a gradual descent of the price to the support level marked on the chart. From which we are likely to continue upwards after some accumulation. 💶💵*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate