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Euro-dollar

Under pressure again and top heavy vs the Dollar above 1.1900...Not the weakest G10 link by any means, but under pressure again and top heavy vs the Dollar above 1.1900 where 1.7 bn option expiries reside ahead of the Fed. However, the single currency has lurched some distance away from 1.2 bn at the 0.8600 strike against Sterling after stops at 0.8550 were finally tripped to push the cross down to test 2021 lows circa 0.8540 and underlying bids arrested a deeper retreat to expose the round number below. Overall a possible short-lived bull spike may occur over the remains trading days for the week if the highlighted trendline on the 1-Hour can break. Hence, the Pound is being propped indirectly and gleaning sufficient support to stay within sight of the 1.3900 handle vs the Buck even though the DXY bounced towards 92.000 before fading again in the run up to the FOMC.
by FTUKcom
5
EURUSD: Price Action & Trading Opportunity for Next Week Hey traders, EURUSD is ahead of a strong daily/4h resistance cluster. We already saw a positive bearish reaction from that this week and it looks like the market is preparing for one more test of that. To short the market wisely, wait for a bearish breakout of a support line of a bullish flag pattern on 4H. It will be a nice confirmation . Remember, in case if the price goes above the red zone, setup will be invalid. Please, support my analysis with like! Have a great weekend!
Short
by VasilyTrader
18
EURUSD Tipped To Weaken To At Least 1.175 Say NordeaForeign exchange analysts at Nordea notes the strength in recent US data releases and the upgrading of consensus forecasts surrounding US growth. The bank expects that strong growth, especially in relation to the Euro-zone will lead to further Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate selling in the short term. It expects that EUR/USD will weaken to at least 1.1750 and potentially further. Strong US growth expectation will boost the US Dollar (USD) The bank notes that recent US data releases have been stronger than expected and there was a much stronger than expected jobs report on Friday with an increase in non-farm payrolls of 379,000 compared with consensus forecasts of an increase close to 200,000. “Consensus economists seem to be competing among themselves to hike their US growth forecasts following: i) fiscal divergence, ii) vaccine roll-out divergence and iii) a more benign financial impulse from currency weakness in 2020. We wouldn’t fight this trend.” Short-term growth expectations will inevitably be boosted by Senate approval of the $1.9trn support package. There will inevitably be a positive impact on consumer spending given cash payments to individuals. The US economy is now expected to perform much more strongly that the Euro-zone and history suggests this will strengthen the dollar. Bond yields liable to increase further In contrast from their expectations last month, the bank is now less confident that the huge increase in liquidity resulting from the drawdown in the Treasury’s cash balance will weaken the US dollar. Expectations of stronger growth will tend to increase the threat of bond selling. Nordea notes that, in comments last week, Fed Chair Powell declined to push back against the increase in bond yields. The bank is concerned over the threat of further cash selling of Treasuries which would put further upward pressure on yields. If higher yields trigger a slide in equities, the dollar could also gain defensive support.
by thunderpips
3
ING's exchange rate projections - EUR/USD rate forecast at 1.300Foreign exchange analysts at ING considers that stresses in the bond market could continue in the short term and contribute to a further dollar correction stronger . Nevertheless, it expects inflation fears will subside which will allow yields to stabilise. In this environment, the bank expects that the dollar will weaken again as the Fed maintains a very accommodative monetary stance. The bank has a 12-month Euro-to-Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate forecast of 1.3000. US Dollar (USD) exchange rate losses to resume, Fed to stay very accommodative ING notes the importance of US bond markets and increase in yields for short-term currency moves. The sharp increase in yields has triggered dollar gains and a dip in commodity currencies while the Swiss franc and Japanese yen have weakened. This threat could continue in the short term; “With the Fed yet to express concern over the bond sell-off, US Treasuries could stay under pressure into the March 17th Fed meeting. EUR/USD could briefly correct to 1.17 mid-month.” Nevertheless, ING does not consider that there will be permanent inflation threat and expects that yields will stabilise which will allow pro-cyclical currencies to strengthen again. In short this means we regard the current dollar rally as a bear market bounce and remain fully invested in a 2Q story of a broadening global recovery, which should lift all currencies – including the EUR. ING expects that the Euro-zone vaccine programme will eventually get into gear which will help underpin the Euro. The bank maintains a 12-month EUR/USD forecast of 1.3000 as the dollar loses ground and the Euro posts net gains.
by thunderpips
3