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Euro-dollar

EURUSD...DT (2D)⚠️ TREND — Momentum: Big Picture Uptrend — Price Action: Downtrend Retracement — CounterTrend: YES (moderate risk trade) TEHNICAL ANALYSIS —The price is currently trading below the 50-day moving average (MA), which is a bearish signal. —The MACD indicator is also bearish, with the MACD line below the signal line. —The RSI indicator is neutral, with a reading of 50. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Bullish Factors — The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates low, which will make the euro more attractive to investors. — The eurozone economy is expected to grow at a faster pace than the US economy in the coming quarters. — The eurozone is a net exporter of goods and services, which will benefit from the stronger global economy. Bearish Factors — The US dollar is strengthening against most other currencies, which could weigh on the euro. — The US economy is expected to grow at a faster pace than the eurozone economy in the coming quarters. — The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates more aggressively than the ECB, which could make the dollar more attractive to investors.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
EURUSD Fell 15.40% After the Last U.S. Credit DowngradeIf you haven`t sorted EURUSD at the beginning of the Russia - Ukraine war: The rend continuation: Or the Double Top Chart Pattern: Then you need to know that on Tuesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing "a steady deterioration in standards of governance." This downgrade occurred following last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to reach a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, putting the nation at risk of its first default. In the wake of a similar credit downgrade in the past, the EURUSD pair experienced a significant decline of 15.40% within one year. Standard & Poor's, one of the three major credit rating firms, downgraded U.S. debt on Aug. 5, 2011, after another major debt ceiling battle. Currently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022. Although a 15.40% decline for the EURUSD pair may not be likely, it's worth mentioning that the target for EURUSD would be 0.924 if such a worst case scenario were to unfold. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Short
by TopgOptions
EURUSD: Still seeing some strength hereEven writing this I’m thinking it could be a crazy idea with USD strength in play, but let’s see... I think we’ll see some early weakness from the USD before a momentum shift that will see DXY reverse up (maybe by end of the week). I think the EURO is still looking strong, bouncing back from the falling following the ECB rate hike pause. ECB are hawkish around further hikes and USD CPI numbers this week may indicate a pause is coming from the FED, this idea may have played out by then. I’ll be tightening my SL at 13.30 GMT this Thursday. So for now looking to go long provided we breakout and retest the falling trendline on the daily from the 1.275 high. We’ve been in a strong uptrend for months and I think the moves in the next few weeks could start to show reversal back down, but for now we still have higher highs and higher lows, support held nicely last week and had confluence to not break the 100 and 200 EMA on the daily, so I'm still bullish with this one for now. I’ll hopefully be tp’ing around 1.124 to see if we get a double top or continuation up, which would bring the 1.14 centre line of the rising channel quickly into play (which could well happen if the US CPI is better / lower than expectation).
Long
by Finchcliffe
🔥🔥🔥 NEW: EURUSD (15m) 🔥🔥🔥Choose your TP based on your favorite trading strategy or time frame: 💶 EURUSD (pip movement per strategy): STRATEGY PIP MOVEMENT Scalping 10-20 pips Intraday 20-40 pips Swing 40-80 pips Position 80-120 pips TIME FRAME AVERAGE ATR 1 day 20 pips 4 hours 10 pips 1 hour 5 pips 15 minutes 3 pips 5 minutes 2 pips ⚠️ TREND — Momentum: Big Picture Uptrend — Price Action: Uptrend — CounterTrend: No (conservative risk trade)
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
✨ MODIFICATION: EURUSD ✨ THE BIG PICTURE (5D)TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: TP5 @ 1.2115 (closing ALL Buy Orders) TP4 @ 1.17850 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 1.1250 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 1.1100 (shaving 25%) TP1 @ 1.0933 (shaving 25%) BLO1 @ 1.0820 ⏳ BLO2 @ 1.0800 ⏳ VIDEO TIMESTAMP: 00:00 ECB News 02:53 Where Do We Go From Here? 03:32 A Noisy Intermediate Time Frame (4H) 04:55 Key Support/Resistance Levels (4H) 06:01 Institutional Buying Targets 06:42 Safe Haven Currencies 05:52 Interest Rates and Safe Haven Currencies 08:47 Position Sizing with R:R @ 1:1 10:20 Best Buying Opportunities ⭐ 11:04 The BIG PICTURE Analysis ⭐ 13:28 BIG PICTURE Anticipatory Trend 16:31 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: During today's EUR News trading session, the EURUSD initially tried to rally or, as we call it, exhibited a false positive. Still, the market gave back gains as the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates as anticipated by 25 basis points up from 3.50% to 3.75%. So, considering this, where is Price Action going from here? Since April 02, 2023, @ 18:00, it's been a very noisy range. This range is our current price curve analysis. It lands between the Pivot Low of 1.0788 and the Pivot High of 1.1095 and, therefore, places Support @ 1.0945 and Resistance @ 1.1086. Based on the 4H chart, we should be clear for a downtrend breakout if price action opens and closes below our Support Level. A breakout pattern to the downside would also mean Price Action is pulling back from its BIG PICTURE uptrend pattern. Therefore, we should find Institutional Buying Targets around 1.0820 and 1.0800. Considering the US dollar to "safe-haven" currencies like JPY or CHF, we need to be cautious about our position sizing because this will continue to be a volatile range. We're going to have to "ride the wave" professionally. Right now, I see a lot of short-term buying and selling opportunities until Price Action reaches its 4-hour Demand Zone around 1..0800. Once we're there, the longer-term opportunity to buy will be ours.
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
4
EURUSD:Did the fed win the battle against inflation?Hey Traders, In today's trading session, our focus is on monitoring EURUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 1.1100 zone. From a technical standpoint, EURUSD has successfully breached a significant resistance level at 1.1100. As a result, we are now observing the possibility of a retracement of this breakout, which could potentially lead to further upward movement and new highs. From a fundamental perspective, the recent release of soft CPI data has important implications. The softer CPI data suggests that inflationary pressures may be easing, which, in turn, could prompt the monetary policy to become less restrictive. When monetary policy becomes less restrictive, it typically leads to a weaker USD. Therefore, based on this fundamental analysis, there is a potential for USD weakness, further supporting the case for a potential buying opportunity in EURUSD around the 1.1100 zone. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
10
🔥 ALTERNATIVE: EURUSD 🔥 SWING TRADE 🔥TP3 @ 1.0966 TP2 @ 1.0855 TP1 @ 1.0790 BSO @ 1.0691 📈 SL @ 1.0630 🚫 ⚠️For those of you who'd like to enter a longer term position than our previous Day Trade version of this trade then the above coordinates are for you. We have observed that placing a tight Stop Loss (SL) would have resulted in being Stopped-Out. However, knowing we have the BIG PICTURE trend to the upside, I decided to manage the trade and "ride the wave" (i.e., hold it in drawdown) at least to our Minor Support Level @ ~1.0638, As of now, we have gained +30 pips. Price Action suggests a probability of a pull back (PB) down to the Daily Open @ 1.0688. Therefore, we will not be placing a Manual SL until after it PB. For now, we believe placing a SL below Support is the best bet. It is important to note that managing trades can result in better outcomes than relying solely on a tight SL. Additionally, considering Price Action and Support levels can aid in making informed decisions regarding SL placement. We recommend placing a SL below Support for this particular trade. I pray you're Profiting with Professor
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
1
✨ NEW: EURUSD ✨ Counter-Trend Swing ✨SLO @ 1.1050 ⏳ TP1 @ 1.0890 TP2 @ 1.0800 BLO1 @ 1.0775 ⏳ (aggressive) BLO2 @ 1.0750 ⏳ (conservative) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: The EUR/USD pair has been in a bullish trend since early June, breaking above the 1.0800 Resistance Level. On the other hand, the EURUSD pair is coming into the Supply Range from ~1.1015 up to ~1.1055 (16H). If this level is NOT broken and holds, then I'm anticipating this pair could see a downtrend retracement. As far as Support, I don't see anything major until price reaches 1.0792 and/or Demand @ 1.0772 (16H). Overall, the technical analysis for the EURUSD pair is BULLISH, but we also need to be prepared for some potential risks to the upside — supply and resistance — and hopefully capitalize off of these levels. KEY TECHNICAL INDICATORS: — Moving Averages: The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA are both sloping upwards, which suggests that the trend is bullish. — Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently in the overbought zone, which suggests that the pair could see a pullback. — Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger bands are currently expanding, which suggests that volatility is increasing. Overall, the technical analysis for the EUR/USD pair is bullish in the near term, but there are some potential risks to the upside. Traders should monitor the pair closely for signs of a pullback. Fundamental Factors (Near Term): (1) USD: FOMC Member Waller Speaks (2) USD: Unemployment Claims (3) USD: Fed Chair Powell Testifies (4) USD: Existing Home Sales (5) EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speaks "Manage your position, monitor the price, and you'll make some profit!" — Professor Cornelius Ward
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
7
🔥NEW: EURUSD🔥 DAY TRADE 🔥 AGGRESSIVE 🔥RESISTANCE @ 1.0975 TP4 @ 1.0850 (closing ALL Buy Orders) TP3 @ 1.0920 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 1.0890 (shaving 25%) TP1 @ 1.0850 (shaving 25%) BLO1 @ 1.0815 ⏳ (aggressive) BLO2 @ 1.0790 ⏳ (conservative) SUPPORT @ 1.0775 WE ARE A COMMUNITY BOOST a trade idea to share with others and "pay it forward" FOLLOW to receive alerts of any new posted ideas COMMENT with questions, insight, and expertise JOIN our group chat: receive free analyses on any instrument
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
7
#EURUSD. 🔴 M15. Short. (#EuroUSDollar). The Entry Price is higher than the Market Opening Price.(✔️) M15 imbalance on the potential of the H1 range. (✔️) Below the level of the First Seller of stock options. (⚠️) ps since the price is in search of a new range, we can try to sell from this reversal structure in order to pick up the corrective movement. But perhaps there will be a change of trend in this place. We'll see. According to my entry point, the first target has already worked out, and now the imbalance is retested. input: 1.10066 (on imbalance test) stop: 1.10322 tp-1: 1.09799 tp-2: 1.09276
Short
by TrEKone
1
EUR/USD -6/7/2023-• Blurry technical picture for the Euro currency and the trend is turning into neutral • Bullish ascending trend line since October 2022 intact, supporting the price • We have a potential short term descending triangle, a bearish formation usually • If the sellers manage to break below the triangle, the pair might be facing a 150-200 pips move lower according to the triangle breakout projection method • There is a strong area of resistance between 1.10 and 1.11 and the bullish trend won't gain momentum unless the bulls manage to break above it • To the downside, supports level align at 1.08-1.0820 (ascending trend line and triangle support) followed by 1.064 (previous swing low) and 1.05 • Unless we see a very bad or very good NFP report, I suspect we are going to stay in a trading range between 1.08 and 1.10-1.11
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISMore hawkish global central bank policy actions have increased reservations over the global economy and the latest Euro-Zone data was also significantly weaker than expected. Weaker risk conditions will also tend to weaken the Euro, especially with scope for defensive dollar demand. In this context, confidence in the global economy will need to rebound for EUR/USD to secure gains much above 1.1000. US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rates Forecast - US Economy in the Limelight The Federal Reserve remains determined to maintain a hawkish policy stance and expects interest rates to increase further, especially with stubborn inflation in the services sector. The US economic developments will, however, be a key element. The manufacturing data has remained weak while services-sector growth has remained strong. The US PMI manufacturing index dipped to a 6-month low of 46.3 for June from 48.4 previously and below expectation of 48.5. The services-sector index edged lower to a 2-month low of 54.1 from 54.9 and in line with expectations. Within the data, overall selling prices increased at the slowest rate since October 2020. Manufacturing prices increased at the slowest rate for three years with services-sector increases at 5-month lows. MUFG still considers that the labour market is showing important signs of weakness. It notes; “evidence is building that we are close to a turn toward weaker employment data. It is already becoming clearer in the claims data.” Initial claims have been above 260,000 for three consecutive weeks for the first time since October 2021. Excluding the covid period, it is the highest level since September 2017. The bank also points to the underlying increase in continuing claims and added; “every time continued claims increases to the degree most recently (570k), the US labour market weakens notably and recession follows.” According to the bank; “Our current EUR/USD forecasts are 1.0900 in Q2 and 1.1300 in Q3 which reflects our view of a turn in the jobs data that intensifies once again recession fears and strengthens expectations of rate cuts at the back-end of this year and in 2024, which will help fuel renewed dollar selling.” Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Dominated by Euro-Zone Reservations Confidence in the Euro-Zone outlook remains fragile and the latest PMI business confidence data was weaker than expected. The manufacturing index dipped to a 37-month low with a 5-month low for services. Socgen expressed some reservations over the data; “The only caveat is that the European PMI data aren’t a very useful gauge of what’s happening to the economy, and should be treated with some scepticism.” Nevertheless, it added; “A return to 1.06 is a significant risk.” According to Berenberg; In the longer term, we remain moderately optimistic for the euro. However, the economic weakness in the Eurozone is hampering the recovery. We have therefore adjusted our currency forecast slightly downwards and only expect a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.12 (previously 1.15) by the end of the year.” Credit Agricole also sees barriers to further Euro gains; “the EUR rate markets have already priced in some ECB tightening beyond July, suggesting that positives are already in the price of the currency. The bank sees other hurdles; “In addition, the EUR remains the biggest long in the G10 FX market while the broad EUR NEER that the Governing Council uses to gauge the currency's strength across the board has moved very close to its 2009 record high.” Danske Bank expects the Euro will struggle; “In the euro area, there have been some weakening signs in macro data as of late, which we expect to become even more pronounced in H2, as the full impact of last year’s monetary policy tightening hits the real economy.” It adds; “Overall, we think the US economy will prove more robust relative to the European counterpart in H2.” It has a 6-month EUR/USD forecast of 1.0600. According to ANZ; “A relatively more hawkish ECB, with more work to do in taming inflation, could bring about some upside in the EUR vs the USD in H2 2023. However, given that economic data surprises in the Euro-area are turning negative relative to the US, we believe that any upside in the EUR will be capped at 1.12 in Q3. ANZ added; “We also think that any rally in the EUR will likely be driven by USD-related factors.”
Long
by thunderpips
2
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISForeign exchange strategists across global financial institutions have been setting out their predictions for the future performance of the EUR/USD, presenting an amalgamation of analyses that span from modestly optimistic to overly bearish. Euro-Dollar rate predictions are pinned upon factors ranging from central bank decisions, inflation metrics, and global market sentiment to regional economic performance. Berenberg: Modest Optimism Despite Economic Weakness Ulrich Urbahn, CFA Head Multi Asset Strategy & Research at Berenberg, sees the Euro (EUR) gaining ground against the US Dollar (USD) following the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent monetary policy decision. "After the ECB’s monetary policy decision, the euro gained a little more than a cent and is now trading at a good USD 1.09 per euro," says Urbahn. His stance is that the Euro (EUR) has the potential to recover, brushing aside the recent corrective phase. However, he is cognisant of the hurdles posed by the frail economy in the Eurozone, which he sees as a drag on the currency's recovery. Urbahn remains modestly optimistic in the long run, although this outlook is tempered by a slight downward revision in the forecast. "In the longer term, we remain moderately optimistic for the euro. However, the economic weakness in the Eurozone is hampering the recovery," he adds. Consequently, Urbahn now foresees a year-end EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.12, a step down from his previous 1.15 forecast. Scotiabank: The Bite of Rising Interest Rates Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, presents a rather more cautious view on the euro's performance, pointing to the damaging effects of rising interest rates on the European economy. He notes a dramatic fall in the Eurozone's PMI data for June, with French Services and German Manufacturing data showing significant dips, effectively signalling a stunted growth rate as the impact of interest rate hikes begins to bite. "Weaker than expected Eurozone PMI data for June hammered the EUR. French Services data fell to 48 (52.5 in May), pulling the Composite reading to 47.3 (from 51.2). German Manufacturing slumped to 41 (43.2 last) and the Composite reading dipped to 50.8 (from 53.9)," says Osborne. Nevertheless, the analyst still anticipates the European Central Bank (ECB) to follow through with rate hikes in July, despite this being in the face of weaker growth. "Markets have tempered ECB expectations as a consequence but policymakers are still very likely to deliver on hikes in July at least. Weaker growth is needed to break core inflation pressures," he adds. Danske Bank: The Force of US Yield and Rate Increases Danske Bank's Analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen gives a more detailed view of the shifting global macroeconomic landscape. The analyst points to the increased US yields and the markets' anticipation of a longer period of elevated interest rates as the principal drivers of the EUR/USD exchange rates' slight downward drift. The strategist also highlights the comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about the potential need for one or two more US rate increases in 2023 as a significant factor affecting the exchange rate. "EUR/USD drifted slightly lower towards 1.0950 on higher US yields and global markets generally pricing a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment," says Kundby-Nielsen. Highlighting the increasing likelihood of a rate hike from the Fed, she adds, "The 2-year US Treasury yield hit the highest level since March, and the market implied likelihood of a 25bp hike from the Fed in July increased to above 80%." The strategic analyst further underlines the market response to Powell's comments on the potential for further rate increases this year. With such economic dynamics in play, Kundby-Nielsen indicates that Danske Bank has assumed a short position on the EUR/USD spot, expecting the underlying fundamentals to swing in favour of the USD. Credit Agricole: The ECB's Unfinished Rate Hike Business Valentin Marinov, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Credit Agricole, sheds light on the relatively stronger performance of the euro against other major currencies. According to Marinov, this is attributable to the increasing market expectations of further rate hikes following the June ECB meeting. "The EUR was able to outperform other majors like the USD, JPY and CHF as well as recover vs the GBP in recent days," says Marinov. He postulates that the attractiveness of the euro derives from an anticipation that the ECB is not done with hiking policy rates. "This could be made quite apparent by next week’s Eurozone HICP data, which may show that core inflation has re-accelerated in June," he adds. Marinov forecasts that if such data convinces markets to expect more aggressive ECB rate hikes, the EUR could regain more ground. Yet, he notes potential obstacles, including pre-emptive market pricing of ECB tightening, the EUR's record high strength, and possible negative surprises from the preliminary Eurozone PMIs for June. MUFG: The Return to Pre-Ukraine Levels Last but not least, Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG, takes a long-term perspective, seeing the recent rebound of the EUR against the USD as part of a greater bullish trend. He states that the EUR has made up for most of its May sell-off, reversing the trend to climb back up. He credits the Federal Reserve's decision to halt the rate hike cycle and the ECB's increasing focus on the core inflation outlook as crucial to this rebound. "The EUR has rebounded against the USD so far this month and in the process has reversed most of sell-off in May," says Hardman. He forecasts a return to pre-Ukraine crisis levels, expecting the pair to move back to the region of 1.1500. "The run of higher highs (in January and April) followed by higher lows (in March and May) so far this year highlights that the bullish trend remains in place," he adds. Nonetheless, Hardman does anticipate that further USD corrections are likely unless supported by stronger US economic data. This, combined with an expected uptick in Eurozone's core inflation over the summer, could prompt the ECB to consider additional rate hikes in September.
Long
by thunderpips
2
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Capital Outflows will Undermine the Dollar A starting point for the BNP market analysis is that it considers the dollar is notably overvalued in global markets, especially against the yen. It adds; “The USD on a G10 trade-weighted index is trading almost 2 standard deviations (about 25%) rich relative to our estimates of its long-term fair value, as captured by the BNP Paribas FEER.” The debate surrounds whether there will be a trigger for the overvaluation to be reversed. BNP expects a significant shift in capital flows over the next few months which will have an important impact on currency rates. According to the bank; “The normalization of global yields should continue to encourage repatriation by Eurozone and Japanese investors, who are overweight US assets.” BNP also considers that unease over US equity valuations will encourage a flow of funds out of the US into the rest of the world It adds; “Coupled with FX-hedge ratios at low levels, we see space for significant USD selling. Overall, BNP places less emphasis on Federal Reserve rate cuts in forecasting that the dollar will lose ground. Euro Can Secure Capital Inflows The bank maintains a broadly constructive stance towards the Euro. It expects that the ECB rate hikes and quantitative tightening will encourage foreign inflows and domestic repatriation. Although BNP expects that energy prices will strengthen, it does not expect a return to 2021 levels. Overall, the bank expects gradual EUR/USD gains over the medium term.
Long
by thunderpips
1