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Euro-dollar

EUR/USD's hidden clues & key levels? Here’s an interesting chart: the inflation differential of the US and the EU plotted against the EUR/USD pair. If we approximate the range of the inflation differential with an upper bound of 1.5 and a lower bound of -0.5, we get a compelling signal for trading the EUR/USD pair. Buying EUR/USD when the inflation differential bottoms has resulted in success 4 out of the 5 times this signal was triggered. Repeating the analysis using the preferred inflation measures for both central banks – PCE for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and EU HICP for the European Central Bank (ECB) – yields similar results. Is this spurious correlation or is there more to this? Our guess is that the inflation differential drives expectations of one central bank’s move versus the other which affects the currency pair. The upcoming US PCE release on 28th April will provide insight into whether the inflation differential between the US and EU will continue to narrow. The validity of this data remains to be seen, but it's certainly an intriguing observation to consider! The rather eventful economic calendar over the next two weeks offers opportunities for this pair. Starting with the PCE Price Index released on April 28th, it is followed by the Fed meeting on Wednesday, May 3rd and the ECB meeting on Thursday, May 4th. With these events in mind, we want to position ourselves for the flurry of announcements coming out, which could play into EUR/USD strength. The long-term price action still seems to point towards an uptrend, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing the 200-day SMA and clearly marking previous swings. The current price is also consolidating at the 1.1000 psychological level, with parity and 1.2000 levels roughly marking the EUR/USD range for the decade. Zooming in, the EURUSD has been trading in an uptrend. An attempt to break above the 1.11 level was quickly rejected, with prices trading back to the trend support shortly after. We are currently witnessing another attempt to break this same level once again. Hence, a risk-managed trade could yield opportunities here with the upcoming onslaught of announcements. Setting up a long position at the current level of 1.1074 with a tight stop just below the trend support at 1.0945 and take profit level of 1.1400 would give us a risk-reward ratio of roughly 2.5. Each 0.00005 increment per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equal to 6.25$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:6E1!Long
by inspirante
UPDATE ⚠️ NEW EURUSD ✨ COUNTER-TREND TRADE ⚠️SLO @ 1.1065 ⏳ SSO @ 1.1040 📉 +69 pips or +690.00 USD *️⃣ +SL @ 1.0990 🚫 +50 pips or +500.00 USD*️⃣ TP1 @ 1.0975 (shaved 50%) 🤑 TP2 @ 1.0933 TP3 @ 1.0900 ADDITIONAL INFO: 00:00 Reviewing Our Analysis 00:41 We Took Profit @ TP1 🤑 00:59 +SL @ 1.0990 (80m) 01:22 New SLO ADDED @ 1.1015 (80m) 02:30 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join 🤑 Net Equity is @ +69 pips or +690.00 USD *️⃣ 🤑 We shaved 50% from our TP1 for a profit of +65 pips or +325.00 USD*️⃣ *️⃣(based on a Standard Lot size of 100,000 Units or 1.00 (MT4/MT5)
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
EURUSD buy from level 💶💵Hello guys, Everything is explained on the chart for you like always. The price is coming to the interesting point, So you can monitor the price's action there to enter temporary buy position or as a point to close sell positions. Key point is 1.075. Good luck. If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow me for next analysis :) . salam be doostan, hame chiz rooye chart moshakhas shode, gheymat dar hale amadan be noghte gazabi hast, pas mitoonid raftar gheymat dar in noghte ra rasad knid baraye vorod be position buy movaghat ya bastan position haaye sell. noghte kelidi ham 1.075 hastesh. moafagh bashid. like va follow faramoosh nashe :)
Long
by ArashBanakar
1
🔥 EURUSD 🔥 DAY TRADE 🔥 AT MARKET OPEN 🔥00:00 Intro 00:40 Considering It An Uptrend 01:20 Resistance / Minor SZ 01:29 Demand Zone(s) 04:22 Support or Demand? 05:47 Early Entries 07:01 We're @ Mid-Pivot!!! 07:47 Review 08:31 Boost, Follow, Learn, Comment 4️⃣ TP2 @ 1.1015 (closing ALL buying positions) 3️⃣ TP1 @ 1.0999 (shaving 50%) 1️⃣ BLO1 @ 1.0962 ⏳ 2️⃣ BLO2 @ 1.0944 ⏳ 5️⃣ -SL @ 1.0933 🚫 ADDITIONAL INFO: 1️⃣ This is my main focus for a Buy Entry to capture an uptrend 2️⃣ If BLO1 doesn't hold, then we'll have a 2nd opportunity at this price 3️⃣ I'm anticipating the possibility of Price Action (PA) pulling back (PB) to do downside just before the uptrend (UT) Anchor Break (AB), and if it does, we need to put at least half of it in our pockets 4️⃣ And if you like being a little more aggressive and reach more, then here's another opportunity to put a little more in your pocket. 5️⃣ MODIFIED: I lowered my Stop Loss to 1.0933 (I don't expect PA to come this low, but you'll never know)
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSThe Pound and Euro could reach fresh multi-month highs against the U.S. Dollar this spring, although a lull in price action over the northern hemisphere's summer months would then be expected. This is according to the analysis of W. Brad Bechtel, Global Head of FX at Jefferies LLC, which also warns of the potential for a more notable turn lower in the Dollar by year-end. Bechtel has been watching the Dollar index - a measure of overall USD performance against a basket of major currencies - and finds the rise witnessed over recent days can continue, even if it is somewhat unconvincing. "I am still of the view that we are likely to see some weakness in the USD in the medium term, but in the very short term DXY might get pulled just a bit higher first," says W. Brad Bechtel, Global Head of FX at Jefferies LLC. Bechtel is watching U.S. interest rate markets as an explainer of the Dollar's performance as inflation narratives become "a thing again" . "DXY made a double bottom around 100.80 for now but has not really participated in the rally as U.S. rates grind higher," says Bechtel. U.S. two-year bond yields have been rising since the week of March 20, a development that would typically be expected to offer the U.S. Dollar support. But, "in percentage retracement terms the USD is nowhere close to the 50% seen in the 2yr which tells me that there is some structural weakness in the USD out there still" . "If this move in U.S. yields fizzles and starts to reverse lower again, then the USD will take out 100.80 pretty quick and EUR/USD will rise through 1.1100," predicts Bechtel. The Dollar is expected to be the prime driver of where the Pound to Dollar exchange rate and other pairs trade over the coming weeks. "In the end, EUR/USD will trade to 1.1250, GBP/USD 1.2700, AUD/USD through 0.7000, maybe up to 0.7200 eventually," says the Jefferies analyst. The Dollar index is meanwhile expected to trade through 100.00 floor, but Jefferies' FX strategy team is not looking for "a huge break lower" . "A move through 100.00 and then some range-bound activity as we push through the Summer," says Bechtel. This suggests another leg higher in GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD et al. is possible during spring, ahead of rangebound trade during the summer months (through to end-August). "By end of Summer, we'll have a better view on where things stand with the US economy. Will the US economy roll over hard or will the Fed pull the rabbit out of its hat and have a soft landing," says Bechtel. If the Dollar slides sharply into year-end and into next year "then we could enter a bigger down cycle in the USD, but I am reticent to make that call just yet," says Bechtel.
Long
by thunderpips
1
QUICK DAY + SWING TRADE ✨ EURUSD ✨3️⃣ TP2 @ 1.1266 (closing ALL buy positions) 2️⃣ TP1 @ 1.0980 (shaving 50%) 1️⃣ BLO @ 1.0945 ⏳ ADDITIONAL INFO: 1️⃣ If Price Action (PA) pulls back (PB) to our original Buy Entry we should be able to capture the continuation of the uptrend (UT) with this Buy Limit Order (BLO) 2️⃣ This is our first TP. I placed it just below a Minor Resistance Level. My plan is to Take Profit by shaving 50% and holding what's remaining 3️⃣ This is our final TP. I placed it just below a Major Resistance Level. My plan is to Take Profit by closing out ALL remaining buy positions
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
✨ ADD-ONs: EURUSD (9m/5m) ✨1️⃣ BLO1 @ 1.0949 (9m) ⏳ 2️⃣ BLO2 @ 1.0943 (5m) ⏳ ADDITIONAL INFO: 1️⃣I'm confident we'll get a reaction from this Demand Zone (DZ) @ the 9m, but I'm not so confident of it holding because it's formation is a downtrend (DT) 2️⃣ This 5m DZ is where I expect PA will begin to turn and return to the uptrend. ⚠️ PA could go as low as 1.0938 (5m) — this is the distal wick of the 5m Demand Zone 🚫 ALWAYS PROTECT YOUR PRINCIPLE. Use: (1) a Stop Loss (2) a Trailing Stop, or (3) a Manual Trailing Stop (my personal preference) 🤔 MANAGE YOUR POSITIONS: — Lot sizes ~2% of the Net Asset Value of your account — Reward yourself; shave off some early profits — Master entering a position at: (1) Support/Resistance or (2) Supply and Demand
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
EURUSD ✨ The GOOD NEWS Update ✨01:11 Our GOOD NEWS trade 02:38 +SL has been set (Manual Trailing Stop) 03:25 Follow, Join, Boost, Comment (3) TP @ 1.0985 (missed by -6 pips) (2) TP @ 1.0980 (8m) ⏳ (1) BLO @ 1.0920 (1H) 📈 +37 pips or +$370.00 ADDITIONAL INFO: 🤑 In case you for got, we made +26 pips or +$260.00 USD*️⃣ from our last Buy Stop Order 1️⃣ As anticipated, Price Action (PA) pulled back (PB) and we were able to catch the continuation of the uptrend (UT) with this Buy Limit Order (see Net Equity above) 2️⃣ Now that a new minor Supply Zone (8m) has been created, I've lowered our Take Profit price by -5 pips (see above) 3️⃣ Although PA moved in our favor, this impulse to the upside missed our original TP @ 1.0985 by -6 pips. *️⃣(based on a Standard Lot size of 100,000 Units or 1.00 (MT4/MT5)
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
What are Your Biggest Struggles in Trading?Hey everyone! I've been trading for a year now, and while I've had some successes, I've also faced some challenges along the way. I know I'm not alone in this, and I want to hear from you all too! I believe that we can all learn from each other and grow as traders, which is why I'm reaching out to the TradingView community. If you're comfortable, I'd love to hear about your own trading struggles. Whether you're just starting out or a seasoned pro, I think we can all benefit from sharing our experiences. Moreover, we all know how lonely this journey can get, so sharing and learning from other's struggles could improve our mindset and the way we tackle the losses, as well as the success. Personally, I struggle the most with keeping a trading journal organised and use it as a feedback loop, improving my trading strategy. I have tried for a while to keep track of my trades in apple notes, but it gets frustrating when you try to actually learn and discover patterns in your errors. On the other hand, another struggle comes when my emotions take over my strategy, and I have been searching desperately for tools and ways of fighting this urge. Leave a comment of your biggest or most uncommon struggle and let's improve our trading skills by sharing!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by m_maia14
EUR/USD Short-term & Longterm IdeasWhats up TV community. just want to share with you guys my view on EURUSD. From yearly Topdown to Daily. We touched the Yearly Demand level & the 3Month Chart has a strong bullish candle which engulfed the previous bearish candle. (some bull signals) on Monthly timeframe we eliminated the last Supply CP and we created nice demand level with imbalance, which indicates more bulls kicking in. Now we jump to Daily timeframe and use our fresh demand levels to jump into the rally . Never forget one major thing. Follow your trading plan. i am just sharing ideas. If something big happens with fundamentals technicals can change never forget that. Enjoy your trading.
by IKA-academy
2
EURUSD: Rejection at 1.067 is a Buying OpportunityThe EURUSD broke through the 1.080 resistance level quickly, but was just as quickly rejected and closed below the level, returning to the channel it was previously moving in. I expect the price to retest the resistance at 1.080 before falling to the strong monthly support level at 1.067, where it coincides with the 61.8 Fibonacci and the 100 and 200 moving averages on the 4-hour chart. Below it is an annual uptrend line, so any rejection at this level would be a buying signal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and show your support by liking the idea. Please follow if you're interested in more ideas like this. Your support is greatly appreciated!
by Candlestick_OB