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EURO-USD

EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS|DOWNTREND|SHORT VIEW 🔔Jerome Powell said nothing that could inspire EURUSD bulls, but the pair's quotes grew all the same. Might the reason be a forecast for European inflation? Let’s discuss that and make a trading plan. Like the gold price depends on what the Fed thinks about inflation and not inflation itself, the dollar rate depends on how the market interprets Powell's statements and not his statements. The Fed president didn't voice concern about Delta, saying the US economy had every chance to return to full employment despite the short-term risk. He made a hawkish statement that a QE taper would most likely start in 2021. However, Treasury yields slumped, stock indexes grew, and EURUSD quotes rocketed to 1.18. Powell had found the right words to convince investors that monetary stimuli would be withdrawn slowly, so his address at Jackson Hole was taken as market-friendly. The Fed chair underscored that inflation was temporary and there was no connection between QE withdrawal and the beginning of a federal funds rate hike as the central bank had set quite a different criterion for increasing borrowing costs. That's good news for high-risk assets, but why the euro is growing isn't quite obvious. The Fed's intention to normalize monetary policy and the ECB's passivity raised the discount on the overnight rate to borrow the euro instead of dollars earlier in August to the highest since 2020. To finance a carry trade, the euro rate is -0.48%, and the dollar rate is +0.09%. In 2021, carry trades funded by the euro produced returns for 17 out of 23 emerging currencies. Using the USD delivered losses for 15 of them. The euro and the yen are currently the main funding currencies, and the global risk appetite's boost is supposed to weaken them. At the same time, treasury yields are falling, which doesn't let the dollar spread wings. However, EURUSD bears will be able to claw back losses if US labor stats exceed expectations. Bloomberg experts forecast that non-farm payrolls will grow by as little as 750 thousand in August. That's more than in most months of the year but less than in June and July when the increase was +1 million. Moderate US employment forecasts and expectations of the eurozone's consumer prices boost to 2.8%, their highest since 2012, support EURUSD bulls as much as Jerome Powell's address at Jackson Hole. The "buy the euro on rumors and sell it on facts" principle might be realized once European inflation data are out. Weak data on Chinese business activity and strong US employment stats can pressure the main currency pair. On the whole, the EURUSD's failure to hold above 1.18 will point to the buyer's weakness and become a reason for sales. Technically we can see that the price is within a bearish channel with the value lingering within the fibonacci retracement, between the 50% and 61.8% level, could use these two percentages as resistance and turn to the downside. Ichimoke's clouds remain Bearish and the stochastic indicator is located in Overbought with Top Divergence. The price on the H4 chart is below the average 200 simple average. Can bears maintain control over price action and force the EUR/USD into its horizontal support area?
Short
by FOREXN1
7
DXY | London Open | Fundamental Analysis On Friday, the S&P 500 index rebounded as investors took advantage of Wall Street's recent labeling opportunities. For this week's Jackson Hole Symposium, equity traders will be looking at signals regarding the Fed's next move. The Minutes of the last FOMC meeting showed that the majority of Fed members are in favor of lowering the asset purchasing program to $120 billion per month before the end of the year. This likelihood may be reinforced by the talk given by Fed President Jerome Powell on Friday, even if recent economic statistics indicated a sluggish rebound. In this context, a 12-month "Wedge" pattern ran above the DXY US Dollar Index. This demonstrates that the market prices for the potential to taper stimuli and perhaps rise to medium-term rates. Increased US dollar pricing and developing market assets may weigh.
TVC:DXYShort
by TayFx
2
Euro-Dollar Heading into the FED Summit |Fundamental Analysis|As speculators predict a faster-than-expected timeline for the Federal Reserve's withdrawal of stimulus, the US Dollar has hit fresh all-time highs. Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will give a lecture titled "The Economic Outlook" at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, August 27, at 10 a.m. EDT/14 GMT. At the Jackson Hole Conference Center, a reception will be held in honor of the occasion. With respect to the US Dollar, there is a mixed bias in the market. While the US Dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) has climbed to fresh all-time highs, speculators are beginning to predict that the Federal Reserve will remove stimulus at a quicker rate than previously anticipated. Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will give a lecture titled "The Economic Outlook" at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, August 27, at 10 a.m. EDT/14 GMT. At the Jackson Hole Conference Center, a reception will be held in honor of the occasion. According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, there is a mixed tilt in the direction of the US Dollar as we enter the last week of August. As of the beginning of the year, traders have begun to forecast that the Federal Reserve would begin to withdraw its stimulus package sooner than previously expected. With a 1.01 percent rise last week, the US Dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) rose to fresh yearly highs. For the first time since October 2020, the EUR/USD rate, which is the most significant component of the DXY Index, dropped by -0.81 percent and finished below 1.1700. Stock market declines weighed on the USD/JPY exchange rate, which only increased by 0.16 percent. Although the US Dollar gained ground across the board as escalating delta variant concerns eroded confidence in global growth-sensitive currencies, the pound fell -1.76 percent, the Australian dollar fell -3.13 percent, the New Zealand dollar fell -2.94 percent, and the Canadian dollar rose +2.47 percent, all against the backdrop of rising delta variant fears. There will be a rush of action in the area of event risk, most of which will originate in the United States, towards the conclusion of August. There are five 'high' rated events scheduled for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which will take place over the course of a week and have the potential to produce significant event risk-based volatility. There are many economic reports planned to be published on Monday, August 23. The Chicago Fed's July national activity index, the August Market manufacturing PMI (flash), and the July existing home sales data in the United States are all expected to be released. Tuesday, August 24, will see the release of new home sales figures for the month of July in the United States. According to the timetable, the data on durable goods orders in the United States will be published on Wednesday, August 25. Thursday, August 26 will mark the beginning of the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. This week's economic statistics will include the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as well as the weekly jobless claims data. On Friday, August 27, two reports will be released: the July US PCE report (the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation) and an update on the August US Michigan consumer confidence index (both of which will be released on Friday, August 27). President Powell will deliver his Jackson Hole speech, which is provisionally titled "The Economic Outlook," at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time/14 a.m. GMT on Monday, March 25th, 2019. As a result of the information that has been received so far about 3Q'21, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow growth estimate has been lowered downward from a previous estimate of +6.2 percent to a revised estimate of +6.1 percent annualized growth. A new data set has caused the Federal Reserve to downgrade its forecast for real housing investment growth in the third quarter to 3.0 percent from 3.4 percent. It is planned for publication on Wednesday, August 25, 2011, the latest adjustment to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for the third quarter of 2011. Looking at the odds of a Fed rate hike with the yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond, we can observe whether the bond market is responding in a similar manner to how it behaved in 2013/2014 when the Fed began implementing its tapering plans. In accordance with historical data, the butterfly monitors variations in the yield curve that are not parallel in the United States. Based on historical trends, intermediate rates should rise more rapidly than short- or long-term rates, provided that the trend continues. However, even if the July FOMC minutes, which clearly differentiated between rate increases and tapering, had no effect on the likelihood of a rate hike, we can see that the US yield curve is shifting in a way that indicates that a more hawkish Fed is on the horizon, as illustrated in the chart below. The 2s5s10s butterfly has climbed to its highest rate since the Federal Reserve began talking about tapering off its bond purchases in June, despite the fact that there remain 87 basis points (bps) of rate hikes discounted until the end of 2023. The combined effect of rising US Treasury yields – particularly when intermediate rates exceed both short- and long-term rates – combined with increased chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the past has resulted in a more positive trading environment for the US Dollar, according to historical evidence. When it comes to trading posture, the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the week ending August 3 indicates that traders increased their net-long US Dollar holdings to 19,206 contracts from 18,880 contracts over the course of the week, according to the report. Based on information provided by Bloomberg, the net long position in the US Dollar has stayed around its highest level since the second week of March 2020. (the apex of coronavirus pandemic concerns in financial markets). according to the IG Client Sentiment Index, as we enter the last week of the month of August
Short
by TayFx
EURUSD: Two Scenarios Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸 My yesterday's forecast on EURUSD played out nicely and the price bounced from a year's low. Now, based on a current perspective I see two equally possible scenarios: Bullish scenario Currently, the market is trading within a strong daily supply zone. 1.175 - 1.1775 is a bears' area. To confirm a coming bullish reversal, we need a bullish breakout and candle close above that entire area. The next goal will be 1.1825 Bearish scenario Because the price is approaching a key daily structure now, it won't be surprising if the pair will drop (taking into consideration that the sentiment is very bearish for the last two weeks). Your confirmation here will be a bearish breakout of a horizontal consolidation area on 1H. Wait for 1H candle close below 1.1732 as your trigger to sell. First goal will be 1.1707 Wait for the trigger and follow the market. ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
30
EUR/USD:UPDATING OUR PREVIOUS IDEA...BEARISH CHANNEL FIBOUpdate about our last 24H idea.. we are close to take profits. Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links in Description and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page and Ideas by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
8
EUR/USD:NEW SWING FIBO OPPORTUNITY|DOWNTREND|SHORT 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links in Description and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page and Ideas by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD:BEARISH CHANNEL|PRICE ACTION+FIBO|DOWNTREND|SHORT 🔔EUR/USD: downward pressure has weakened, consolidation is ahead - UOB Group. Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
4
EUR/USD:BEARISH SCENARIO SHORT TERM|FIBO SWING 61.8%|SHORT 🔔EUR/USD | Euro to US Dollar Trading Analysis Bearish scenario. ECB, Villeroy: keeping the accommodative policy at the moment is absolutely justified. Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
3
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in EURUSD Trading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.19470). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . EURUSD is in a range bound, and the resumption of the downtrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 46 Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.19160 TP2= @ 1.18806 TP3= @ 1.18460 TP4= @ 1.18300 TP5= @ 1.17970 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_World
12
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in EURUSD Trading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (1.19470). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . EURUSD is in a range bound, and the resumption of the downtrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 45. Take Profits: TP1= @ 1.19160 TP2= @ 1.18806 TP3= @ 1.18460 TP4= @ 1.18300 TP5= @ 1.17970 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity
6
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + PRICE FIBO ACTION UPDATE|LONG 🔔The French Business Survey for June is predicted at 109. Forex traders can compare this to the French Business Survey for May, reported at 107. The Final Spanish GDP for the first quarter is predicted to decrease 0.5% quarterly and 4.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Spanish GDP for the fourth quarter, which was flat at 0.0% quarterly, and which decreased 8.9% annualized. The German IFO Business Climate Index for June is predicted at 100.6. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Business Climate Index for May, reported at 99.2. The German IFO Current Assessment Index for June is predicted at 97.8. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Current Assessment Index for May, reported at 95.7. The German IFO Expectations Index for June is predicted at 103.9. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Expectations Index for May, reported at 102.9. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of June 19th are predicted at 380K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of June 12th are predicted at 3,470K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of June 12th, which were reported at 412K, and to US Continuing Claims for the week of June 5th, which were reported at 3,518K. US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for May are predicted to increase 2.8% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation are predicted to increase 0.8% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for April, which decreased 1.3% monthly, and to Durables Excluding Transportation, which increased by 1.0% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for May are predicted to increase 0.6% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for April, which increased 2.2% monthly. The final US GDP for the first quarter is predicted to increase by 6.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the fourth-quarter GDP, which increased 4.3% annualized. Final GDP Sales for the first quarter are predicted to increase 9.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to fourth-quarter GDP Sales, which increased 9.4% annualized. The final GDP Price Index for the first quarter is predicted to increase by 4.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the fourth quarter GDP Price Index, which increased by 1.9% annualized. The Final Core PCE for the first quarter is predicted to increase by 2.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the fourth quarter Core PCE, which increased 2.5% annualized. The forecast for the EUR/USD is turning bullish following a correction after this currency pair was unable to extend its advance. Will bulls gather enough strength to force the EUR/USD into its horizontal resistance area?
Long
by FOREXN1
9
EUR/USD:DETAILED PRICE ACTION|HIGH+SMALL TIMEFRAME|LONG SETUP 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Long
by FOREXN1
4