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EURO-USD

Do you suffer from (Retail Sentiment)What is retail sentiment? Have you ever noticed on your broker site that it has a statement along the lines of "70%+ of retail traders lose money"??? This is directly related to retail sentiment - in short, institutional money make their money on others losing money in the online marketplace. Every forex trader will always have an opinion about the market. “It’s a bear market, everything is going to hell!” “Things are looking bright. I’m pretty bullish on the markets right now.” Regardless of the technical analysis or the news that comes out, traders often get it wrong. There's some simple logic to this, If you look into COT reports (Commitment of Traders) 🍪 see the last COT post if you're not familiar with COT. Well in addition to COT there is also a tool called sentiment - this info shows what traders are doing on global broker platforms such as IG index. In this current condition and at this precise time it has a mixed bag of; SPX 47% of retail are long - now you would assume with a long stock market it would correlate to a weaker DXY situation, yet retail are also 57% to the short side on EURUSD. Which makes very little sense. Now assume this is only a small minority on one platform like IG index. Well - with another look, you will see retail are currently; Long - USDJPY 67% (Long DXY) Short AUDUSD 63% (also long DXY) However, 76% long USDCAD - and then long Gold 83%. Do all the numbers match up? Knowing 70% or more of retail traders lose money - what would you say? Unfortunately, since the forex market is traded over-the-counter, it doesn’t have a centralized market. This means that the volume of each currency traded cannot be easily measured, but again this is where COT can be used in parallel to the sentiment. This might be 👽 to you right now. But it's a very powerful tool. On the COT side, you can see into the volume traded and will notice if brokers are net-long, institutional investors are often net-short. Buyers need sellers. It's as simple as that. IG sentiment can be found here - www.dailyfx.com Hope this helps someone. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
EUR/USD - Elliott wave pattern continuationThe EUR/USD exchange rate has been falling since the beginning of 2021. Previously we have mentioned the Elliott Wave pattern where the whole upward structure looks like a possible impulse wave since March 2020. What is more, above 1,2000, where the fifth wave may have ended the ECB were talking about a strong euro which could limit the upward movement. It seems that as a consequence of the mentioned above, the exchange rate has dropped below the key line drawn through the low of wave 2 and wave 4. In theory it could open a way to a potential target zone at 1,1700 - 1,1600 as wave A within ABC correction. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 76.44% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Daniel_Kostecki
1
What moves exchange rates, and what exchange rates moveHere is a list of what impacts the strength of a currency, as well as the impacts this strength has on the currency country(ies). Things are of course more subtle than a simple excel list binary check. For example, some inflation is not automatically bad, it can be the sign of a country economic growth, and as it gets bad the relationship is not linear, inflation slightly high will not scare many investors and industrials, but when it gets to a really bad high value investors flee at an exponential rate which exacerbates the currency devaluation further. Where the currency goes it is said depends on where "the big boys" want it to go, in particular central banks. Capitalist countries look to increase profits, Communist/socialist countries seem to also like manipulating their currency which they use for propaganda purposes, to increase their control, fulfill their goals, and to increase their competitiveness so they may improve the lives of "the workers". But the "big boys" do not have full control. Ask the BOJ, ask the BOE governor from the early 90s. Here is the example - without getting into the details - of a bad everything horror story (no you can not short it they have capital controls): Another example, after the initial "safe haven" rally of the USD in March 2020 following the stock market crash, the dollar went into a big downtrend against European currencies: And a final example, China, the biggest holder of usdollars, has been selling its bags (public information), and their economy did much better in 2020 than the US one, the price has been unsurprisingly trending for over half a year now:
Education
by MrRenev
3
$EURUSD - Sell below $1.20200 and here is whyHi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 The US vaccination plan and restrictions implemented resulted in a decrease of the new active cases. 🔔 Johnson and Johnson reported that their vaccine is 72% effective against moderate and severe disease in the US, and 57% in South Africa. In South Africa, 95% of cases in the trial were due to a variant known as B.1.351, which is known to be more contagious and carries mutations. 🔔 President Biden’s administration already signed a policy to lift the rate of vaccination among the US delivering more than 33 million shots. The European Union on the other hand is demonstrating a rather weaker approach to beating the Covid-19 spread, with Spain hitting new records of Covid-19 cases. 🔔 US GDP as per the final quarter of the last year, released on January 28, demonstrated a 4% growth, while the data from the EU, released yesterday, were rather unsettling. Europe's GDP (QoQ) is down 0.7% and (YoY) is down 5.1%. Despite the released positive PMI data and a rather positive Core CPI (YoY) s per January, Euro still looks weaker against the US Dollar. 🔔 Current support of $1.20200 is keeping the bears above it as it was a heavy resistance earlier, that means if this support is brokean we might see a greater correction of the pair. 🔔 The Non-farm Employment change which is going to be released today and tomorrow's Initial Jobless Claims will be significant for the USD, as the employment growth is the FED’s key metrics for the economic recovery. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
Short
by azizelliott
My vision on EURO/USD - still SHORTOn my previous analyse (Jan 15th) the price was testing an important support zone which broke as expected reaching my first target (1.2078). At the beginning of December, the 1.2078 area got tested a few times but without success and the market continued up. Now, we might have a re-test and the same market behavior. Personally, I continue to expect a bearish move and a breakout of 1.2078 area, my next target will be 1.950. If you have a different view, please share, I would love to hear your analysis.
Short
by Dana16
EURUSD: Important Decision Ahead! Scenarios for Next Week: EURUSD is facing a major point of confluence. 1.206 - 1.209 is the area based on a support line of a rising channel and December's local daily horizontal support. With a quite strong bearish momentum this week, we must consider two potential scenarios: Bearish - in case of a daily breakout of the underlined confluence zone, the market can fall even to lower structure levels. 1.195 is the next closest strong horizontal support to consider as the goal for sellers. Bullish - we must remember that technically EURUSD is still trading in a bullish trend . In case if the confluence area is respected and we see clear reversal clues, we may expect a bullish reaction. The next closest resistance will be 1.22 For now, I am still bullish biased and on the side of the major trend. But who knows! Please, support this idea with like and comment! Thank you!
Long
by VasilyTrader
10
ridethepig | Rate Differentials Pausing via Italian Politics 📌 ridethepig | Rate Differentials Pausing via Italian Politics An important chart update here as we are talking "differentials" in the abstract concept of waves and TA. We must first take notes of the previous leg which was the 1st wave and far from easy to spot, in the early game of rate differential turns, it takes a lot of energy to exploit one side the whole business involves activity. Think of the complicated setup, above the orderblock as a breakout, and remember we are playing a whitespace game! On the other hand, operations on the FX board are quite simple and natural to follow. There have been some signs of a temp high cooking in EURUSD and with Italian politics entering back under the spotlight it will likely be used as a blockader. Remember ECB may, when the occasion demands it, possibly send forward false flags to clear the ground of infiltration above 1.25. A pullback in rate differentials towards 1.25 will be enough to clear the board and by the apparently primitive sequence an ABC pullback should materialise. The pullback should cap the highs in EURUSD for now until the summer to gather energy before we can launch decisively higher. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
3