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EURO-USD

'Risk-off' knocking at the moonlit door; Long Gold📌 After completing a second test of 1.20xx, profit taking entered into play with the fix yesterday. Dollar is clearly restrained by Fed and WH prevention and then by a later of risk hedge clearings . Before I present the usual schematic representation, we should look at just how difficult the environment is to play correctly with timing these reversals. As soon as a divergence is formed, we have the choice of a shallow or deep retrace in EURUSD towards 1.16xx/1.17xx or a sharp leg higher in Gold towards $1,970 and $2,100. Gold bears must also bear in mind risk-off flows are once again knocking at the door via Iran after clearing the vaccine newsflow. I have been fielding questions around stimulus for a while, it is easy to lean on CB's but the correlation is breaking and exactly on time when this transfer should happen. Hard to understand; a better way to put this is look for a large correction in Gold after clearing the board to set about some painstaking defence for the next round of risk-off flows cooking. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming 👍 or 👎
by ridethepig
8
EURUSD - Huge Swing Potential!I have been waiting on this set up for a while now so I'm hoping the wait will have been worth it! Current market price at time of writing is 1.19450. Huge swing trade set up here on EURUSD. Price has been so bullish over the last week due to USD's weakness and I did anticipate it reaching the yearly high at the 1.20 psychological level (2020's highest price.) which it has. I am religiously seeking out these strong levels in my trading due to their reliability to make strong rejections. As anticipated, price has begun to reject and start to sell off. We also have a falling wedge pattern that should break, if momentum can sustain. If so, we could see a nice swing trade down to the bottom of the range in the 1.16000's The risk to reward ratio on this trade is excellent, stops can be placed above the psychological level around 1.20200 which is little risk for such a great potential reward. Let's see how this plays out! if price does return to the 1.20's then I won't be too disheartened as the R:R here is too good to miss!
Short
by MMQ_FX
19
EURUSD @ 1.195 Resistance When volume drops off, a continuation of a trend won’t be as easy. It’s easy to trigger volatility but it’s rare in late Nov. to get a follow through. Volatility drops, markets outperform, and the VIX also drops. However, a tad of volatility in a thin and high spread market can create huge moves that can be very profitable if you are playing. We’ve had a contrast this week in terms of risk on—risk-off in terms of sentiment. The US indices hit multiple all time-highs, which carries a major impact regardless of where you’re at in the world and your current diversification of which assets. There is a significant of influence when it comes to the economic calendar, which drive the key underlying economic theatre. It’s not technical right now—it’s not even fundamentals—it’s the market conditions. As the expectation of a liquidity drained into the next few sessions this week, including major players being offline Thursday and Friday, is that some distorted moves could very well happen. Major highs have been achieved between the DOW and the SPX this week, with the SPX not posting an intraday record high, but a record all time high close which carries the same weight. When a major benchmark like this gets put on the radar of so many retails and intuitional firms alike—with the addition to motivation from the white house, it generates its own momentum further fuels by the algos that do run-online. This momentum will be of struggle though, don’t discount that. Yesterday we say both the SPX and DOW attribute risk-on up flows, including the NIKKE25, Euro equities like FTSE and DAX—although lesser—all showed positive inflows going into the holidays. Even the commodity markets like copper and crude oil stole some gains, pushing to high not seen since March. All of these advances marked clear month highs, and on clearance of a long-winded extension. EEM (emerging markets) has pushed to a new high also. This appears to be the technical cue for more of a systematic move. The current conditions behind the scenes is one that may come short when it comes to follow through. This simply means volatility and the significance of its current wave. Keep in mind, historically this is one of the slowest weeks for international finance. However, you can have some incredible moves, almost adagios to a tsunami in a quiet—unaffiliate market. It can be difficult however having follow through. To get a follow through or a trend at these kind of levels in the Equity Market’s (stretched for a speculative exposure) in a thin liquidity period, there are many things that can go wrong in terms of risk. There’s not as much of an opportunity to handle any profit in trends should you get in late, vs what can happen when the trade goes wrong? Fear doesn’t wait. greed is hesitant. Right now, I’m more interested in the tension of a breakout for the U.S. dollar. Unlike the SPX , the dollar index is looking at a break that only put’s it back into a very…very large range. It’s much easier to stick in a range than form a trend, which makes sense. these are forms of value we’re speculating on. The dollar could be on the verge of a breakdown on the daily timeframe . This has a lot of alignment to the dollar-based majors, EUR/USD at 1.19, but more notably is 1.20. However, this will be a tuff 100 pip zone oof resistance that will try to put a downside break on hold. -GBP/USD: 1.34, a multiyear trendline going back to the peak prior to BREXIT, stands strongly above at the 134 range. -AUD/USD: Backing up to multi year highs, we can see it’s a risk-oriented major right now. -NZD/USD: With the RBNZ’s refusal to entertain a more accommodative policy—which was expected—is in a similar situation. The interest is in the improvement in trade relations, as the transition between TRUMP 44 to BIDEN 45 takes place. There is a fundamental addition catalyst larking in the water. In the meantime, we have scheduled even risk over the next 2 days of trade. The US docket is loaded—with good US PMIs and a disappointed consumer confident print, followed by durable goods, trade balance, initial jobless claims, and personal spending all due this week. I will be watching initial jobless claims most closely, but I don’t think this will override the liquidity –and lack there off—as mentioned above, however you never can say you know anything in this market!! This could cause a bounce of the DXY or a break, I just won’t be very confident in what is to come in terms of follow through. Even the suggestion for the transition is verified by Georgia and Michigan and Pensively, more realistic things that has attributed to the market sentiment is that Janet Yellen could possibly be the next treasury secretary. This would insulate more stimulus, and this time it could be both fiscal and monetary policy stimulus. So this is personally what I’m interested in specifically right now. This would only buffer further risk trends. Question is, can it solve an empty hole in investors hearts looking for –and have no found—true value? It’s a systemic question. PS: Watch the broader indicines and the amount of outflows from the tech sector of the DAQ.
by TayFx
2
EURUSD - SWING LEVELS EURUSD - Follow the levels for upcoming week, based on trend lines and downside break down it is expected to go down from the current price. My approach will be a sell here at current price 1.18555 Maintain stop loss around 1.19250 Potential downside target 1.17700 - 1.17000 Trade as per your risk appetite, I will be glad to see your likes & comment. Why you should follow this tradingview account ? Managed by top most renowned trader - Pulak Priyesh 10 + years of trading experience Professional Day trader Excellence award winning mentor Professional chart, clear chart without junks. Major S/R levels with inner insights Frequent Day & Swing trade levels All major and minor FX/INDICES covered. Thanks
Short
by Professor_GS
EURUSD - Break of Ascending ChannelEURUSD had been moving within a tight ascending channel for a week or so, finally managing a break to the downside yesterday. After several visits to the 1.19 region, it is apparent this is a tough level to break. Price is currently resting on an area of noticeable support/resistance. I am expecting this zone to break, following which we should see an initial decline to last week's low at around the mid 1.1700's. Should fundamentals permit, we could see a continuation to the November low at around the 1.16 psychological. Coronavirus concerns combined with vaccine news and also the ongoing Brexit situation will likely be factors contributing toward/hindering any moves lower.
Short
by MMQ_FX
3
EURUSD - Head and ShouldersA head and shoulders pattern appears to have formed on the EUR/USD H1 timeframe. (Illustrated with L/H/R annotations) The neckline of this pattern rests on the 1.18 psychological level. I believe, upon breaking this we should see a push down to the July-November swing low at around the 1.16 psychological level. EURUSD appears to be respecting these levels very well as I have noted on my chart. Waiting for a clean break of the 1.18 with some strong selling momentum to confirm continued bearishness. Fundamentals this week will likely be the catalyst if so. Stops can be placed above the right shoulder - great R:R on this nice potential swing trade!
Short
by MMQ_FX
5
Possible scenariosNovember roof broken to the upside Downtrendline broken to the upside USDCNH is falling to the abyss. Price stalled bcs we are at strong resistance 1.19000. Round number. Meade tells US stock market will rise 12 percent this month (negative for the dollar) But we have untested weekly CPR and weekly pivot. In case of strong trends they are often missed. But if price pulls backs - it will be be weekly central pivot range area. At any case I am long for now. If price pulls back I will add to longs. ------------------------------------------------------------- FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. YOU ARE ALONE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOR TRADING DECISIONS.
Long
by ICFX