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EURO-USD

EUR/USD ULTRA RESISTANCE AHEAD|THE CASE FOR THE DOLLAR EUR/USD is now moving in an upward channel, facing the blue resistance area, yet no one is talking about the real resistance ahead of us, that is the 11 year downward trend line, that has so far worked like a clockwork, with only a slight violation attempt, in 2014. Now, the cross lines that you see on the chart represent estimated touch point of a price and the resistance, depending on the speed of the price growth. It is obvious, that the touch point is realistically to happen below 1.1600. Thus, 1.1600 Is THE resistance level. However, given a relatively gradual slope of the resistance line, the touch point will most likely be no lower than 1.1500 Many link the current surge in Euro to the FED cutting rates, thereby negating the carry trade benefits and what we see now is the capital flow back to Europe, spurred by the current FED's and Treasury's collective dollar liquidity pump. That leads the aforementioned "many" to go further and make claims of the end of the Euro downtrend, which naturally means that the downtrend line will be broken and Euro will break out shining and free. While there is certainly some truth to that, here is the FED funds rate chart, that shows us the beginning of the Euro down-trend, after the FED cut rates to de-facto zero in 2008, while the Euro funds rate, while going down too, was cut to near zero only in 2015. Therefore, while there is certainly a relationship between the two, it is not the single factor issue. As I have already said before, I am convinced, that Europeans realize how damaging is the strong Euro to the EU’s economy, and therefore, It would be reasonable to assume, that the ECB will do Its best to make sure the downtrend line stands. Once broken, It will take much more liquidity to get the ginny back into the bottle. Also, I am convinced that the dollar is the place to be now, as all the investable assets are in this currency, and will be in the future. The dollar represents 70% of the global trade and global financial liquidity, so the current collective effort of the FED and the Treasury serve merely as a patch for the liquidity hole in the global finances. And the last but not the least, the dollar demand is driven by the companies that are not US based and therefore lack access to dollars, as well as the governments, that do not have access to the FED’s dollar swaps program, but which have borrowed heavily in dollars during the weak dollar years, and are now facing dollar cashflow shortages due to the massive corona related slump in the global trade. All the talk of the dollar being replaced or sidelined as a global reserve currency are facing the harsh reality: As of the moment, there is not a single currency that has the financial market depth and sophistication to accommodate the worlds capital. The Euro is a currency of a zero growth continent, that is plagued by local debts, a coming banking crisis, and is a poly-country currency, which means that Euro is always under the risk of being hit by the exit or a default of one or many member countries, or even a complete blocks dissolution. In that case, one, who has Euro-German assets finds himself with the Deutschmark assets and Euro debts on hand. A great position to be in. While one with the Italian assets, finds himself with the Lira assets and Euro debts on hand. An awful position to be in. That persistent ambiguity makes Euro an unreliable harbor for global capitals. The common finance ministry and the common debt, it if becomes reality, will certainly boost Euro’s reliability, yet that is a double edged sword, due to the fact that further federalization will push more countries into the Euro sceptic direction, and each move to strengthen the EU and the Euro is a step towards its demise. Chinese RMB can not be a global reserve currency, for many reasons. Among the many are the fact that there are no RMB asses that are available for non-chines entities, there is no rule of law to protect ones property rights, and China is still largely a developing country. Don’t be fooled by the splendor of the ex-Canton, or Shanghai. China beyond its mega cities on the coast remains a second tier country at best. More developed than India, less developed than Brazil. Japanese Yen is not big enough for such task, with only 126 million people, a third of the one of the USA. Besides, the country itself has been plagues by zero growth for decades, and is militarily indefensible in case of a war with China or Russia. Other economies are regional and are not worth consideration. The US remains the power that keeps the seas open for everyone, while allowing everyone to use its judicial system to protect their property right. And in exchange, we just have to use dollars. A low price to pay if you asked me. A shift to the gold based transactions is the only somewhat viable alternative, yet the US has by far the largest gold reserves, which means that the Gold backed dollar will be the currency to use anyways. Besides, the global security role and the global property rights body will remain in the dollar realm anyway. Thus, as a convinced dollar bull I say that the level will stand strong, which gives all of us a gorgeous swing short opportunity on EUR/USD. Please, tell me your opinion in the comments, I very much welcome an intelligent discussion. Thank you for reading. Like and subscribe and have a nice day!
Short
by ProSignalsFx
1
EURUSD: Price Action & Scenario for Next Week EURUSD is trading within a rising parallel channel on 4H. the resistance of the channel was reached on Wednesday and the market set it's last higher high there. during the next two days the pair started to consolidate: with a sequence of three equal highs and two equal lows, the price is stuck in a narrow horizontal trading range. next week, with a high probability the price will retrace one more time from the horizontal resistance. then sellers will face with a buying pressure from a channel's and range's supports. consider this range for potential quick trades next week. to catch the next wave, I would suggest waiting for a violation of the range. we can not estimate how long the market will trade there, so it would be better to just wait. have a great weekend!!!
Short
by VasilyTrader
32
EUR/USD CHANNEL SHORT|STRUCTURE TRADE EURUSD is trading in an upward channel, and has just reached a confluence of a channel resistance and a lower end of the horizontal structure resistance. +a double top will be formed. Thus- we aim at short. The resistance, though violated on 8 hour remains intact on the daily and therefore I consider it to be valid. TRADNING PLAN: 1-Enter in the identified entry area, with sell limit. 2-SL and Takes are on the chart. 3- What if the price does not reach the take area and does down from here? >>setup invalid. Great trade with 3,5:1 risk reward and about 50% probability Thank you for reading, like and subscribe, and have a nice day.
Short
by ProSignalsFx
2
EURUSD: Year's High AHEAD!!! Key Levels & Scenarios EURUSD is approaching a key daily structure resistance. 1.15 is year's high, short rally from that level was just crazy in march. we don't know how the market will react this time, so we must be prepared for both scenarios: in case of a bullish violation of the underlined resistance (daily higher high higher close) the pair will most likely keep growing. next midterm resistances will be: 1.155 1.160 if the structure will be respected (some reversal formation on lower timeframes) the market may retrace. closest midterm supports will be: 1.137 1.130 of course, bias right now is bullish, but it is too late to jump in. let's patiently wait and see whats gonna happen.
Education
by VasilyTrader
18
EUR/USD STRUCTURE BREAKDOWN|SHORT EUR/USD has broken out of the upward diagonal channel, and ignored the double top it should have formed with the last high. Now, it is entering the big resistance area, thus, despite the recent strength, the target trade is a short +RSI near overbought which is a bearish signal. The pair might move further up from the current level, so I am not giving any precise entry point right now. However, a short towards the first support at least will be a good trade. Watch the price action closely, the opportunity for a short must present itself, and now you are aware of it, thanks to me. Thank you for reading, like and subscribe and have a nice day!
Short
by ProSignalsFx
6
E/U 6 week range (1.1175-1.1375) likely to continue prior to ECBMajor currency pairs and stock indices continue to trade inside the shor term range since many weeks as investors are not getting any clear signal of the current economic scenarios hence in a caution mode ,Euro/Usd trading still inside the 6 week range 1.1175-1.1375 and probably continue for more weeks regardless of the ECB meeting due on this Thursday and rates are likely to remain unchanged . Having said that , a spike to test the 8 th march high around 1.1495 handle is possible during the volatility time ,however an upside break out is very unlikely and heavy selling pressures will force to take this pair to test the major support around 1.1025-1.1125 . On the other hand, if a breakout above 1.1500 handle will lead a way to commence a strong bullish trend for many months . Trend : Range Bound Resistance : 1.1375 & 1.1495 Support : 1.1025 Major economic events this week : Inflation numbers from the US due on Tuesday / Earnings reports of Major US banks and other sectors European Central Bank Meeting / ECB Press conference due on Thursday / Retail sales & Consumer sentiments from the US as well
by Alremeithi
EURUSD SCENARIOS EXPLAINED|TRADING PLANEURUSD has broken out from the bullish flag, up through the diagonal resistance. Therefore, the target trade is long. However, I'd wait for the small horizontal structure breakout, which would be a signal of strength for us. It is important to get a good entry price because there is no reasonable level nearby to place our stops below it, and so one might want to be prepared to re-enter the trade. The target is twofold. The horizontal level and the last high, which would make a double top and an excellent short. If the horizontal structure stands, then the pair might as well fall back onto its support. Thank you for reading, like, subscribe and have a nice day.
Long
by ProSignalsFx
6
There is possibility for the beginning of an up trend in EURUSDMidterm forecast: . While the price is above the support 1.0990, beginning of Uptrend is expected. . We make sure when the Resistance at 1.14950 breaks. . If the suppor at 1.0990 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid. Technical analysis: . The ascending flag taking shape suggests we will soon see another leg higher. . While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue. . A peak is formed in daily chart at 1.1350 on 06/23/2020, so more losses to support(s) 1.1145 and minimum to Major Support (1.0990) is expected. . Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses. . Relative strength index (RSI) is 53. Supports and Resistances: S1= 1.1145 S2= 1.0990 S3= 1.0880 S4= 1.0765 S5= 1.0635 R1= 1.1345 R2= 1.1495 R3= 1.1570 R4= 1.1725 R5= 1.1865
Long
by ForecastCity
28
EURUSD: Still Bearish for Next Week hey guys, though my last trading setup on EURUSD was stopped out, I still believe that the underlined 4H structure resistance will hold. on Friday the price has attempted to break above that but was immediately rejected by a bearish engulfing candle. taking into consideration that the pair is locally bearish since 10th of June, chances are high that at least the current local low will be reached next week. goal for sellers is 1.118 if only bulls break above the yellow resistance we can talk about a shift in our bias. have a great weekend!
Short
by VasilyTrader
14