EUR/USDPrice reached the highs of September 017 forming a double top, here we could see a reversal but weak USD data means that it won’t be as straightforward as we may have thought. I will keep an eye on this pair
EURO-USD
EURUSD Possible ScenariosI see a potential head and shoulders as price would fall to respect the 61.8 fib retracement, before price goes up to touch the upper trend of the channel if not break upward to 1.618 fib.
Just an idea, not a signal. Post your ideas in a comment
Sell to 1.1725Sell, not quite oversold on RSI or MACD yet, I see a sell before a rally up. We are inside a channel down, a break above 1.18 would be bullish...
EU BUYI'm buying EU with a SL around 1.78-1.79. There's a lot of bearish pressure so I doubt this actually plays out how I want it. This is a dangerous area to play with especially with the good US News this morning
#EURUSD to appreciate in the next years#EURUSD to appreciate in the next years
Since 1995, EURUSD has been in a ABCDE Elliott Wave formation.
In my opinion, it is in the beginning phase of wave D, which is an impulsive wave. Based on, trend-based fib time calculation, EURUSD can appreciate until 2024. It is a quite long time and trend-based fib time calculation is quite speculative but I at least think EURUSD is (and will be) in an uptrend.
1.25-1.40 range is a strong resistance range. EMA(8) and SMMA(12) golden cross can be in this range and if it passes above, the bullish tendency will be stronger up to 1.90 level.
Ps: Heikin Ashi is used to see smooth price levels.
EURUSD ~ Bull's strong mental targetEURO has a better position than USD
Technical and fundamental exceptions is bullish
We are talking about Euro will reach 1.20 price mark.
After this movement, we probably will see some bearish replacements.
EURUSD potential longClosed above the 4hr zone doing a retest sign of exhaustion in Smaller TF.
Be aware of the big news this week such as NFP market might behave badly.
Please feel free to drop your ideas
EURUSDAfter completing the head and shoulder pattern, the neck like was broken and price is now trending downwards in a bearish channel. Last week’s candle hit the bearish trendline support and could be on its way back up to retest the neckline.
The Democrats seems to be losing the gripTrump tax reform
Predicting the failure of the Trump tax reform because of its scale and unclear double-side backwash, skeptics apparently understated the president's negotiation skills.
Despite initial skepticism, the number of supporters of the tax cuts is growing rapidly among Republicans. On Monday, it was clear that the level of approval allows for rolling out of a budget scheme as early as in October, opening the way for reform through Congress without Democrats’ support. If the budget estimate is not adopted, the bill can be approved only if there are at least 60 votes in the Senate, where the Republicans hold 52-48 majority.
Fiscal stimulus, which costs are estimated at 6 trillion dollars in 5 years, is aimed at boosting consumption and investment activity. According to Keynesian ideas, in conditions of excess monetary supply (and hence, low sensitivity of investments to interest rates), fiscal stimulus of the economy works most efficiently. If tax cuts sufficiently "cover" the poor layers of the population, whose propensity to consume is higher, then we can speak about a very noticeable stimulating effect on consumer demand. Speaking about investments, the higher the rationality of the agent's expectations, the lower the effectiveness of state intervention in the economy. Firms and the financial market are agents with fairly rational expectations, so the effect of fiscal shock on the investment component is very controversial.
The relationship at which the markets are now trying to speculate on is the accelerated pace of rate normalization in case of successful tax reform. Progress in this direction means a bullish signal for the dollar in the medium term.
Positive feedback from the Republicans on Monday caused a sharp collapse of gold to $1,290. As a non-interest asset, the cost of its possession is expressed in the cost of borrowing of the US currency, so its price reflects the expectation of markets for future rate increases.
Another candidate for the head of the Fed was John Taylor known for his "Taylor rule" in increasing the money supply. Trump held an interview with him, however, who will take the place of Yellen is not yet clear. His appointment to the post promises much higher interest rates in the future than the long-term target of 2.75% assumed by the current management.
EU data
The ECB's divergence from the Fed in reducing money supply again became the subject of speculation after release of economic sentiment and inflation in the euro area. In September, the price increase remained at the same level of 1.5%, the core indicator increased to 1.3% from 1.1%. Nevertheless, the ZEW survey in Germany indicated a decrease in confidence in the future for firms, the key figure did not meet expectations (17.6 with a forecast of 20 points). The EURUSD fell by 0.25%.
Arthur Idiatulin
EURUSD - ShortA three wave movement followed by an up impulse of lower degree. It's enough to give us a likely trend change and a low risk entry: stop loss is little below 1,1780 and target is above 1,1880.
EURUSD - Bearish Movement over the coming weeks?EURUSD - Daily:
- Head and Shoulder Pattern
- 61.8 Fib Retracement
Follow on from last EURUSD Idea EURUSD big daily breakout if it stalls here chances are it will continue to the downside !
EURUSD - 4H - Range About To Be Broken?If you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message!
Underlying: EURUSD
Time frame: 4H
So looking at the 4H chart on EURUSD you will notice that price came and hit our pink trading zone at which point we wanted to take a buy position. It has now done and you should be long. Price is starting to get rejected from the zone.
Also notice the 200MA and the 50MA, although they have crossed the 200MA is not actually in a downward trend, it is level. Because of this I am still expecting EURUSD to rally more.
EURUSD ShortEURUSD Shorts coming into play? Will let the chart speak for itself, Couple of downside targets highlighted aswell.
What reasons do you see?
EURUSD - 4H Chart - RangeIf you like this idea and commentary leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :)
Underlying: EURUSD
Time frame: 4H
So looking at the 4 Hour chart it is now putting in a range. This range will break out over the coming week and I feel that this breakout will be to the upside. If the breakout occurs to the downside then you can look at the pink area, 1.1800 - 1.1720 as the support area.
If price gets down into this pink zone it could be another possibility to buy. The MACD is also still fairly bullish and it does not look like it is going to move much lower.
Possible scenarios-EURUSDEURUSD rejected last week the 1.20 psychological level. Today we can see a breakout of a 1H-4H trend. So, a bearish movement till the prime trend is expected.
Then, two possible scenarios could happen.
Scenario 1: Correction till the prime trend. Breakout of the correction and bullish rebound.
Scenario 2: Breakout of the prime trend and bearish movement till weekly support.
Let's see how it develops.
Taranasus's EURUSD ShortPrice reached a new high in the last two years, just one day after the last new high. It is very far away from its short-term ascending support line, not to mention its long-term ascending support line. I expect it to at least fall to its temporary ascending support line which creates a good shorting opportunity. If by some miracle it decides to break this support line down to the next one, we're into some serious dalla dalla. There is a very small chance that it might get pushed higher again, that's why the stop-loss is quite high on this one, so patience is key!
Dollar repairs its image as GDP boosts optimism
The European currency failed to hold the gains of recent bullish momentum, which led EURUSD above 1.20, as investors suddenly began to buy dollars against the backdrop of uncompromising growth in the US economy. Markets have tried to distract from Trump and North Korea, especially since with Trump's mild reaction to the recent launch of the North Korean missile, the degree of uncertainty has dropped significantly. As noted before, the fundamental picture of the dollar pointed to its excessive oversold state, recently almost entirely due to speculative pressure. One of the strategists of Goldman Sachs on the fixed income market joined a group of analysts who pointed out in the interview that the dollar was undervalued because of the exaggerated political and geopolitical risks.
Although the Fed is not able to bring inflation to a comfortable trajectory, investors have realized that the regulator can deliberately let the labor market overheat in order to understand where the Phillips curve will work again. Data on household expenditure and GDP exceeded expectations, with GDP growing 3.0% year-on-year in the second quarter, household spending 3.3%, which returns a version of a temporary slowdown in inflation. In addition, Janet Yellen did not give clear instructions regarding the December increase in Jackson Hole, preferring to get more data before setting expectations on the market. Investors also perceived the lack of hints for the weakness and the plight of the Fed, which is trying to smoothly remove the third rate hike from the agenda.
The optimism about the US economy and the dollar balances the general confidence of investors in the ECB's September decision to roll out QE and makes the game less clear. Inflation in the euro area rose to 1.5%, the Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, leaving the forecast at 1.4% behind. This lays the foundation for the more aggressive rhetoric of the ECB on September 6, as well as subjectively adjusts the markets to the desired outcome. Draghi will definitely announce a reduction in QE in September, but the fate of the euro will depend on the scale of the reduction. It is worth remembering that in Jackson Hole Dragi said that the regulator will move in small steps and very slowly to keep the process, and hence inflation under control. To that, the excessive strengthening of the euro is not in the interest of the ECB, which was announced in the last protocol, so the turn will be carried out extremely gently. Comparing the growing bullish optimism about the US economy and the ECB's readiness for change, the level of 1.20 is likely to retain the status of resistance.
The dollar strengthens pressure on its opponents from the major currencies, the GBPUSD lost 0.3% despite an unexpected improvement in consumer sentiment, which is likely to be attributed to the seasonal factor (ending of hot summer season). Currencies for carry trade such as USDZAR and USDRUB have not yet reacted positively to the US economy. USDRUB declined by 0.3%, but the likelihood of return to the upstream channel is high, given that the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin made an intervention, believing that reducing inflation allows you to cut the rate further. Given the above factors, it becomes possible to enter into convenient purchases for USDRUB.
Arthur Idiatulin
