EURUSD - 4H Chart - RangeIf you like this idea and commentary leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :)
Underlying: EURUSD
Time frame: 4H
So looking at the 4 Hour chart it is now putting in a range. This range will break out over the coming week and I feel that this breakout will be to the upside. If the breakout occurs to the downside then you can look at the pink area, 1.1800 - 1.1720 as the support area.
If price gets down into this pink zone it could be another possibility to buy. The MACD is also still fairly bullish and it does not look like it is going to move much lower.
EURO-USD
Possible scenarios-EURUSDEURUSD rejected last week the 1.20 psychological level. Today we can see a breakout of a 1H-4H trend. So, a bearish movement till the prime trend is expected.
Then, two possible scenarios could happen.
Scenario 1: Correction till the prime trend. Breakout of the correction and bullish rebound.
Scenario 2: Breakout of the prime trend and bearish movement till weekly support.
Let's see how it develops.
Taranasus's EURUSD ShortPrice reached a new high in the last two years, just one day after the last new high. It is very far away from its short-term ascending support line, not to mention its long-term ascending support line. I expect it to at least fall to its temporary ascending support line which creates a good shorting opportunity. If by some miracle it decides to break this support line down to the next one, we're into some serious dalla dalla. There is a very small chance that it might get pushed higher again, that's why the stop-loss is quite high on this one, so patience is key!
Dollar repairs its image as GDP boosts optimism
The European currency failed to hold the gains of recent bullish momentum, which led EURUSD above 1.20, as investors suddenly began to buy dollars against the backdrop of uncompromising growth in the US economy. Markets have tried to distract from Trump and North Korea, especially since with Trump's mild reaction to the recent launch of the North Korean missile, the degree of uncertainty has dropped significantly. As noted before, the fundamental picture of the dollar pointed to its excessive oversold state, recently almost entirely due to speculative pressure. One of the strategists of Goldman Sachs on the fixed income market joined a group of analysts who pointed out in the interview that the dollar was undervalued because of the exaggerated political and geopolitical risks.
Although the Fed is not able to bring inflation to a comfortable trajectory, investors have realized that the regulator can deliberately let the labor market overheat in order to understand where the Phillips curve will work again. Data on household expenditure and GDP exceeded expectations, with GDP growing 3.0% year-on-year in the second quarter, household spending 3.3%, which returns a version of a temporary slowdown in inflation. In addition, Janet Yellen did not give clear instructions regarding the December increase in Jackson Hole, preferring to get more data before setting expectations on the market. Investors also perceived the lack of hints for the weakness and the plight of the Fed, which is trying to smoothly remove the third rate hike from the agenda.
The optimism about the US economy and the dollar balances the general confidence of investors in the ECB's September decision to roll out QE and makes the game less clear. Inflation in the euro area rose to 1.5%, the Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, leaving the forecast at 1.4% behind. This lays the foundation for the more aggressive rhetoric of the ECB on September 6, as well as subjectively adjusts the markets to the desired outcome. Draghi will definitely announce a reduction in QE in September, but the fate of the euro will depend on the scale of the reduction. It is worth remembering that in Jackson Hole Dragi said that the regulator will move in small steps and very slowly to keep the process, and hence inflation under control. To that, the excessive strengthening of the euro is not in the interest of the ECB, which was announced in the last protocol, so the turn will be carried out extremely gently. Comparing the growing bullish optimism about the US economy and the ECB's readiness for change, the level of 1.20 is likely to retain the status of resistance.
The dollar strengthens pressure on its opponents from the major currencies, the GBPUSD lost 0.3% despite an unexpected improvement in consumer sentiment, which is likely to be attributed to the seasonal factor (ending of hot summer season). Currencies for carry trade such as USDZAR and USDRUB have not yet reacted positively to the US economy. USDRUB declined by 0.3%, but the likelihood of return to the upstream channel is high, given that the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin made an intervention, believing that reducing inflation allows you to cut the rate further. Given the above factors, it becomes possible to enter into convenient purchases for USDRUB.
Arthur Idiatulin
EUR/USD Analysis for Week 28DISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas".
This week I tried taking a few trades on this pair and not with any good results. Didn't completely loose all my profits for the week but I came through only with .59% this week because of this pair. So here we go lets try and make sense off all this noise. To me EUR/USD seems to be one of the most volatile pairs, so making sense of it all will be a challenge I hope to conquer.
Background:
So I want to try and use the USD Index chart as a tool to help me see a bigger picture as to what the dollar is doing. What we see here is that the dollar has been dropping and has reached a support area from April 29th and May 2nd of 2016 of 92.53. The price retraced and hit resistance around 94.12 and keeps rejecting it on the daily chart.
Daily:
Ok so as we saw in the USDX chart the USD dropping means EUR/USD comes up. Euro gaining strength and Dollar weakening. But it seems to have peaked at 1.19103.
4hr:
Lets take a look at the 4hr. Here we see a little better how the price has retraced after its peak at 1.19103. I've drawn a descending trendline showing its lower lows. But the important support level is at 1.16889. Where we see that this past week the price was unable to break. And also where I lost some money. The last move that the pair did was up to the trendline and to a resistance area I have drawn at 1.17723.
So what I will look for this week is for the price to break out of that box between 1.16889 and 1.17723. I think thats about it for this pair. It's still hard for me to get my head around this pair seeings as how its high volatility but as I said its a pair I need to master.
EUR/USD breaks patternThe common European currency for the first time during the week did not follow in accordance with the forecast against the US Dollar on Thursday. As a result the short term situation was reviewed.
During the last 24 hours the pair declined to once more reconfirm the lower trend line of the medium term descending channel pattern. Moreover, it reached the long term target of 1.1670. Afterwards, the pair rebounded and began and surged above the weekly S1 at 1.1725.
It is most likely that the pair will continue to surge on Friday until it reaches the various resistance levels near the 1.1750 mark.
EURUSD Weekly Targets and StrategyOn this beautiful weekly time frame I have drawn the next resistance levels for eurusd and while at it also threw in the support levels. You can see that its also breaking out of a resistance currently. Next one wont be seen until 1.21 which is actually support level from the last bull trend, the next real resistance is at around 1.27 and has been tested a few times. Some people might also see the small pike at 1.17 as a resistance.
Now how to use this information.
Well you can buy it and hold for the long term and I have patience. But I assume most people trade the lower time frames and hold their position short term. So with a bullish setup like this on the weekly (and also on the daily) you wanna look at the lower time frames for similar setups to buy, since selling it would be counter trend and could get you hurt.
So hunting those lower time frames for buy entries and booking profit when it hits the next resistance there will be a very very profitable trading strategy the next months.
Feel free to leave any questions in the comments.
How I made $4000+ trading this pair?Hello traders!
Hope everyone is having a profitable week.
I have published my idea few months ago about how the bulls were returning to euraud. After the simple 3 signs that this pair has gave me, I started trading with the trend and went long!
Total Profit: $4878.83
Trading Diary: goo.gl/WOi6yU
Please like and comment for more of my educational material!
- Abdulla :)
EURUSD new Yearly Highs.EURUSD new Yearly Highs.
The yesterday Daily breakdown through the Lows, was a Bear Trap.
Now we can see a climb to new Yearly Highs.
First Target is the area by 1.1250 and next Target is 1.1350
In my view it`s possible that fresh Sellers comes by 1.1250, this Sellers are important, for new fresh Highs.
Good Luck
Michael
Big Bear Trap EURUSDI see a Bear Trap in the Price Range beetwen 1.1100 - 1.1160.
I my View we see new Highs in the EURUSD. First Target is the Area by 1.1250
In this Area is possible that Short Trades comes in the Market with Stops above 1.1270. But I see not potencial for a big downside move, which change the upward Trend.
Speculative Trader goes Long and carefully Trader wait the Monday move and a confirm if we see stable Prices, after the Friday weakness.
First Target 1.1250 and second Target 1.1350
Good Luck
Michael
EURUSD - Trade PlanningHey!
As you can see it on the chart we have a strong support 'area' where the 200ema and my dark red horizontal line cross.
If price can break above the orange-ish line, then, a good long position can be placed - although the red downwards trendline can stop it.
Let's see how it goes - today is a very calm day, I do not expect any major movement.
#Eurusd gartley 1st T, garfly 2nd T may see correction to 1.0645, which is my line in sand for bulls. 1st target is gartley, 1.08360; 2nd target is garfly at 1.0980, which will complete a bearish 50 Ive been preaching about. There is a major possibility of price blowing through 1.10 which will set the stage for 1.20.
link provided below.