EURUSD Bearish Engulfing Week to Keep Downside Pressure IntactFor the better part of March, the EURUSD looked relatively bullish, particularly the March 27th close above the 1.0825 handle. The level dates back to 1999 and was responsible for the February 2nd bearish pin bar earlier this year.
Moreover, 1.0825 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the 2016 high at 1.1615 to the current 2017 low at 1.0340.
All of this means that the March 28th close at 1.0814 was a significant development. It signaled that the earlier bullish break of 1.0825 was false and that a move lower was likely.
Note that the high of the very next session (March 29th) was 1.0826. Sellers have been in control ever since.
From here any retest of the 1.0712 handle could present an opportunity to get short. Key support comes in at 1.0635. A daily close below that would pave the way for a retest of recent lows near 1.0520.
Adding to the likelihood of further losses is the large 260 pip bearish engulfing pattern from last week. The move is more than enough to keep my bearish bias for the single currency intact.
EURO-USD
EURUSD Bulls Have a Steep Hill to ClimbThe EURUSD has enjoyed four positive weeks in a row since catching a bid at 1.0500. The pair continued its slow and steady rally last week with a Tuesday bounce from the 1.0712 support area.
However, sellers have yet to achieve a daily close above the 1.0825 handle. This is a level that dates all the way back to 1999, so a break here isn’t likely to come easy.
The 1.0825 level is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the 2016 high at 1.1615 to the current 2017 low at 1.0340.
As long as the pair trades below this area on a daily closing basis, my bias remains weighted to the downside. With that said, only a proper sell signal from resistance would be enough to get me off the sideline.
For now, the jury is still out on whether the EURUSD has carved out a four-month inverse head and shoulders pattern. For that to become a probability rather than a possibility, I’ll need to see a daily close above 1.0825.
EURUSD DAILY LEVEL REJECTIONEurUsd struggling to break 1.0815 making a triple top.
Much indecision in the EURO zone with the French elections.
An ending diagonal has been formed and what is most likely to happen is a break of the 1.0825 level to break all the stops, and then a massive drop of the institutional traders with the money in the market at the best price.
Sell limit at 1.0825 is a great option, but I will see what happens in the zone before shorting.
Trade carefully!!!!!!!!!!
Expecting one more impulsive intermediate wave downThere is still a large bigger downtrend on this pair's longer timeframes. I am expecting one more impulsive leg down to form a wave 5 in the wave pattern I currently see on this daily chart.
Price is as well currently inside a descending triangle, which increases the chance for a break down today or tomorrow since we are very close to it's apex.
If price would alternatively break up from the descending triangle, I am still short until at least the weekly dotted downward sloping (dark pink) trendline is broken.
The swaps on this pair is currently positive for selling, which favors holding shorts.
EURNZD FINALLY THE BIG IMPULS IS HEREI have been looking for this move, for a long long time. Finally we have the big boy impuls.
Look for a higher low around 1.48 thats where a good entry should form on lower timeframes.
I am looking to leave my positions for 1.72 and 2.000. These are my longterm targets on this pair.
Once this beast starts moving, it will be violent and fast. but right now we are still in the bottom forming phase. There are still some swings to be made before it goes higher.
Why i think the recent break the yearlong trendline is important ? Because even as stocks advanced in the recent weeks to multiple record highs. The EURNZD risk trade went the other way, and broke higher. We have a break of the correlation, which is for me a important momentum change and will result in higher prices in the coming months.
What environment can we expect for this to move higher to continue.
Two important fundamental themes should be realizing in my view!
1st. Rate hikes in the US. This theme is important because in the long run, stocks will be compelled to go lower, if interest rates start to go consistently higher. That point is why the EURNZD saw this appreciation last week. The US interest rates seem to be going higher and quicker than many thought.
2nd. Inflation in the eurozone. Currently its too early to say, but the inflation data is coming every month a little bit higher in the eurozone, and there seems to be something brewing which could lead to consistent higher inflation also looking at germany harmonized cpi is moving higher consistently. This could lead the ecb into tapering faster than thought, and a topic like this will support all the EUR pairs.
EURUSD: realtime trading opportunity (Cypher/ABCD/Fib)Hi Freedom Traders,
I spotted a pretty good trading opportunity in the 4h EURUSD chart.
Why do I like this swing trading idea?
Well... a Cypher Pattern completion,
an AB = CD Harmonic Pattern
and a 61,8 Fib confluence from the bigger timeframe up swing
coming together in a very small price zone of just 7 pips.
You will find possible entry und exit levels for minimizing risk and maximizing profits in the chart.
Happy Trading!
P.s.: the entry level is also going to be my profittarget 2 level for my short swing trade in the Euro from 1,0812
EUR/USD BullishFrom a fundamental perspective, USD data was mixed, if not slightly weak after NFP. Additionally, Russia and China just signed a deal signaling that they will move away from using the USD for their trade with each other. At the moment that's more of a symbolic move, but symbolic moves still change charts.
From a technical perspective, late December/early January of 2015/2016 is a key time to look at for this pair. Very important examples of resistance and support there that outlined where I dropped my demand box. EU should follow the bullish trendline, but might slightly fake-break it, as it's done a couple of times recently. Still, the pair is on a bullish trend and has both near-term and long-term reasons that the lower 1.07000s should be a support zone.
EU coming in short... The first thing you might realize here is the fact that we are looking at this chart from quite a distance. That is for a reason, the following idea is one that would take place over a long period of time (hopefully). As we all probably know, the EU has economic issues that are far beyond repair (a not united fiscal policy center), examples of what could happen in the future have already happened before. You need not look far, what happened after 2008 in Europe was a small version of what could happen in the future. Although I don't enjoy looking at the world through this lens, it is inevitable and quite stupid to ignore it. Unless they figure out another plan, EU's fall is in the near future. I urge you to do your own research on this, as it is something that I alone am not qualified enough to assure you of.
Good Luck!
P.S
If you want, I can make another letter describing exactly why I think shorting is a good idea, but it should be quite evident when you look it up...
EURUSD SHORTHey,
EURUSD SHORT, trade as a retracement from the daily trend line labeled, possible targets 0.5fib through to 0.618fib.
EURUSD LONG, on a break of the daily trend long with a retest before pushing to 1.081
Risk 1percent both trades, to hold for 1day.
Missed first entry after the trendline break but discovered a second entry and possible long.
enjoy.