EURO/USD Monday Retracement Set UpPrice hit resistance at the top end of the 1.14 range where historically gains to the upside have been sort lived and unable to hold.
A retracement down to the 50% fib level where price will likely consolidate pending the FOMC minutes that'll shed a lot more light on the dovish tone set by Yellen last week is the likely outcome for Monday - Tuesday as bulls can correct price upwards afterwards.
EURO-USD
LEARN TO TRADE THE GARTLEY PATTERN IN 5 EASY STEPSSTAGE 1:
THE BULLISH IMPULSE LEG
A bullish impulse leg is a strong move in price action to the upside.
The impulse leg can be a mixture of bullish and bearish candles, but must have a bullish overall direction.
The start of the impulse leg should be marked as X and the top of the impulse leg should be marked as A.
STAGE 2:
B LEG RETRACEMENT
Now that you have identified your X to A impulse leg you are now looking for the B leg, which is a retracement of the X to A impulse leg.
Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your X leg to your A leg.
The crucial Fibonacci levels you are looking for are the 61.80% and 78.60%
Price action must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% retracement.
As you can see by the illustration, the candle does not need to close below the 61.80% retracement but must at least spike through.
The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action touches the 78.60% retracement of the X to A move.
STAGE 3:
C LEG RETRACEMENT
Once you have identified a valid X to A impulse leg and a B leg retracement, you are now looking for a valid C leg retracement.
Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your A leg to your B leg.
The crucial Fibonacci retracement level you are looking for is the 61.80%
Price action must at least touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance.
The candle does not need to close above the 61.80% but must at least spike through.
The bullish Gartley pattern will be invalid if price action spiked above the A leg resistance.
STAGE 4:
D LEG COMPLETION
Now that you have a valid X, A, B and C move you are looking for the final leg in price action at which point you will buy the chosen currency pair.
Take your Fibonacci retracement tool and draw from your B leg to your A leg.
You are looking for a 1.272% which will now give you a valid D leg completion of the bullish Gartley pattern .
STAGE 5:
PLACING YOUR TARGETS
When looking to take targets on the bullish Gartley Pattern the first step is to use your Fibonacci retracement tool.
With your Fibonacci retracement tool draw from the A to D leg, you are looking for target 1 at the 38.20% and target 2 at the 61.80%.
To protect the profits you have accumulated at target 1 it is advised you move your stop loss to breakeven once the 38.20% target 1 has been attained, thus giving you a risk free trade to target 2.
KEY NOTES & RULES:
When trading the bullish Gartley pattern, the pattern is meant to be traded at 1.272% D leg completion only. If you believe the pattern is unfolding but price is only at point B, be patient and wait until price reaches the D leg completion.
The power of the pattern comes from converging Fibonacci levels of all points from X to D.
Point B must at least touch the 61.80% retracement but cannot touch the 78.60% from the X to A move.
Point C must touch the 61.80% but cannot spike above the A leg resistance.
Point D is complete when price action touches the 1.272% retracement of the B to A move.
Stop loss must be placed below the X leg structure support.
Stop loss must also be a minimum of a 1:1 risk reward to the 38.20% target 1.
Target 1 at the 38.20% retracement of the A to D move.
Target 2 at the 61.80% retracement of the A to D move.
CURRENCY PAIR:
This pattern like any other is more profitable with certain currency pairs, you should do your own back testing on this before trading the pattern.
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DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
EUR/USD Yellen Speech PreviewAs it's a non farm week markets will historically trade sideways pending the release of Friday. The weekly close below the 61.80% fib indicates further downside gains with a rest of the 200EMA and 50% fib likely.
At this point it's likely price will break or correct at the 50% fib level towards the 76.4% or 38.2% fib levels where it will likely consolidate until Friday.
The news docket features several high impact US releases however on non farm weeks other news tends to have small-medium impact on price action so do expect breakouts on news releases followed by retracement(s) to the previous levels.
A farm rolls preview will follow on Thursday when a clearer picture of market sentiment is available.
EUR/USD ShortEUR/USD bearish targets. Due to weakness in Euro and todays negative news release on the Euro's consumer price my fundamental research gives further confluences to a short on this pair. Tomorrows Germany news releases on unemployment could possibly cause a minor retracement however, overall I am seeing an opportunity for about 300 pips gain.
EDIT - My entry was at 1.09212
Bullish on the breakout on EURUSDI believe as of now, unless we break Important levels on EURUSD, that we are in an uptrend.
For the main part i am buying on dips. Collected a nice amount on pips on EURUSD so far. This pennant break
should bring us up to a previous high which was about the ~1.148 level.
Risk Reward 1:10
-Thank You and Safe Trading
EUR/USD buying opportunityHello everyone,
This is my first idea and tomorrow will be my first trade with Real Capital so I decided to post this that I have planned for tomorrow's trading.
Looking at the market, a turnaround seems quite likely.
Firstly, discussing political and economic factors: Brexit discussions seem to be in favour of UK staying with the EU and thus I expect the Euro to be heading upwards.
Seconds, studying structure and trend we can see the trend being backed up by strong support level as well as a lower one which also approximately matched the Fibonacci 0.5 level.
TO DO:
I see a buying opportunity, which should be presented if our trend crosses the green resistance/trend level on top.
-Do let me know what you think and any constructive corrections are much appreciated!
Long on EUR/USD BUY BUY BUY !!!Reasons for
-Firstly as we can clearly see we are in a Triangle formation
-We have had multiple bounces from the Bottom trend line which is now acting as Support
-The previous Four hour candle was a doji on the trend line
-Now this 4 hour candle stick is forming a nice big bullish candle which signifies Bullish momentum from Trend line acting as Support
-We have also priced in Higher HIghs
-Although waiting for a break of the triangle formation would be the best thing to do i am more then willing to take a risk and only give away 50 pips if its Stop loss and if it hits Takeprofit then we will make a nice gain of 140 pips
Key risk management and risk reward is KEY :)
Remember History repeats itself
My ENTRY 1.08434
GoodLuck everyone !
Happy trading :)
EURUSD MAYBE LONG ON THE DAILY (NO TRADE TAKEN)Hello again,
Just doing some more analysis on another pair, this is what I think may happen as the FED will be increase their information on whether to keep or change interest rate in the next couple of days which may weaken the dollar.
Again I welcome any feedback good or bad as mentioned I am only testing my knowledge before I go LIVE trading.
Reversal on EURUSD, LONG this weekWhy should we be bullish: Downtrend channel was already broken last friday, supported by strong indications (Strong MACD and Stochastics) coupled with price action (higher highs and higher lows). If we take a step back at the daily chart, you can even notice that 1.10720 was a retracement from the fibo!
When to enter: Let's wait to show a buy signal from the stochastics or once it retraces to the lower uptrend channel. But the TREND must HOLD as a pre-condition
When to exit: Once it reaches highest resistance at 1.1014. This is consistent with fibo extension which I laid down on the latest swing.
Risk reward ratio: 2.14
Reversal on EURUSD, LONG this weekCheck the chart, it has broken the downtrend last Friday. If you're checking out the swing at the daily, 1.0730 was actually a retracement. EUR bouncing from that justifies this upward swing and let's this opportunity at an early stage.
When to enter: Buy once it holds within the upward channel (Blue lines) with buy confirmation from the stochastics.
When to exit: Exit at 1.10144 which is resistance from December swing highs which is consistent with our Fibo extensions.