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EURO-USD

EURUSD Bottoming on Weekly ChartThe EURUSD is looking very bullish now on the weekly as its RSI and Stochastics are turning up following oversold levels, while the MACD blue line is finally flattening. The first key upside target appears to be near 130, a psychologically important resistance level, which happens to coincide near the 5 month downchannel resistance. Longer term, I`m still bearish as the monthly charts point lower, to possibly a retest of the July 2012 low. Feel free to visit stks.co for today's technical analysis on $GC_F, $SI_F, $USDX, $EURUSD, $USDJPY, $GBPUSD, $NG_F, $CT_F, $ZC_F, $ZW_F, $SB_F, $KC_F. Website: tradablepatterns.com FB: facebook.com Stocktwits: stocktwits.com Twitter: twitter.com Linkedin: www.linkedin.com YouTube: www.youtube.com Google+: google.com Email: info@tradablepatterns.com
Long
by TradablePatterns
$EUR Hit Worst-Case Scenario Target; Expect Recoil | #forex $USDTraders, As we anticipated a 1-4 Line validation following the completion of the Wolfe Waves pattern above, price did fall as expected, but fell below the qualitative target at TG-Lo = 1.28377 - 05 SEP 2014. As we turned to the model for its "Worst-Case Scenario" (i.e.: the outer most bearish value considered), TG-x = 1.26696 - 13 SEP 2014 was defined as such abysmal target. At this point, same model expect a significant retracement. Consider "1.33307 - 13 SEP 2014" as a possible target, which is an approximation of a Scott Carney's 5-0 pattern completion level. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster -------------
by 4xForecaster
46
$EUR - "Wolfe Case" Scenario Sees 1.26696 | #EURO $USD #forexFriends, A recent Qual-Target defined a reversible level at 1.28377 (05 SEP 2014). However, closer scrutiny of the chart at the DAILY level reveals the presence of Bearish Wolfe Waves pattern ("WW"). If you recall from yesterday the dire impact that this WW can have on price action (see this free fall here as a mere visual example: ). In this particular case, I see no hurdles preventing this worst-case scenario from happening, except for the predictive/forecasting done this past week (05 SEP 2014), when the model defined a significant floor at TG-Lo = 1.28377. WOLFE WAVES COULD PUSH PRICE FURTHER DOWN: While this TG-Lo remains valid, WW patterns have a way to enforce their ways, as they seek completion at the level where price makes contact with the pattern's 1-4 Line. Considering the current momentum, there may remain even less doubt as to this feasibility even if and once price comes to validate the first bearish target at TG-Lo - 1.28377. OCCULT GEOMETRIES ALIGN WITH WORSE CASE SCENARIO First, let me say that the target defining the worst case scenario was defined by the predictive/forecasting model I use. However, I only considered it plausible due to price's proximity to the WW's 1-4 Line. Therefore a fair amount of selection bias has come into play here. For this reason, I decided to appeal to hidden measurements from occult geometries, defined as follows: 1 - Shape #1 = Height of FIRST swing low 2 - Shape #2 = Height of SECOND swing low 3 - Shape #3 = Differential between Shape -1 and shape-2 at FIRST correction 4 - Shape #4 = Differential between Shape -1 and shape-2 at SECOND correction - Note that the correction per Elliott Wave Principles ("EWP") would have defined a LOWER border of shape-2. However, this is a geometric definition of price action, where the angle and moment were used to defined the start/end levels of shape-2. 5 - Shape #5 = This is the shape named "3+4", as it is simply the added heights of shapes #3 and shape #4 stacked together. OBSERVATION: While most novice traders might not find this a rewarding exercise, I have come to enjoy discreet and occult geometric events such as these ones. In this case, geometry is CONFIRMING the WORST CASE SCENARIO's target at TG-x = 1.26696 by simply adding shape "3+4" onto itself, thus equaling EXACTLY the height of shape #1. In other words, each retracements at shape #3 and shape #4 representing half the height of shape #1, would be doubled to point exactly at the worst case scenario target. Whether purely random or not, I have done this exercise in no such randomness, but instead based on the same manner in which several other targets have concurred with the model using the same arithmetic process of shape additions and subtraction, based on their relative positions to one another. OVERALL: Aside from this occult geometric "amuse gueule", both the predictive/forecasting model and the WW demand a lower price target than originally defined. As this overall price action completes, a retracement of 50% would then be expected to occur, repulsing these bears back up to the 1.33307 level. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorad0 - USA ---------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster ----------------
Short
by 4xForecaster
5
EURUSD - Likely to Resume UptrendMany notable Banks, Fundamental & Technical Analysts have been calling EURUSD lower almost ever since it formed significant low in July 2012. Many have been focusing on what looks like rising wedge which if correct then on completion it would implicate bearish action to at least price retracing to the beginning of the wedge. According to many analyst this wedge is being formed from the July 2012 low and completed at recent high, however, this is being incorrectly interpreted. Whilst it has moved broadly side ways for most of 2014 so far, I believe it is forming a base with 1.3450 1.340 holding it has every possibilities for it to head higher and complete the larger AB = CD measured mover to 1.44 area. Select to follow me and the chart of being notified of any updates. As always this is my view based on my interpretation of price action and suggest you do your own analysis for your trade planning.
Long
by DanV
26
Is France Party Pooping On The EZ? | $EUR $USD #ECB #EURO #forexFriends, Recently, the EZ fundamentals have been weighed down by Europe's second largest economy, when today France posted economic data bringing deflationary pressures to the forefront. What's worth reframing here, is that this week's significant decline in the EURUSD Forex leader occurred in spite of Germany's positive data - First question that comes to mind is whether the peripheral bears could potentially break Germany's bullish back. Furthermore, when compared against economic data signaling a potential recovery - however serious or manipulated they might be - from across the US, a second question is whether this potential bullish USD would be sufficient to ignite a market-wide run out of the EUR currency. ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio stated this past Thursday that the Eurozone was sitting in a "creditless recovery" with very low inflation but that moderate growth would likely result from the broader recovery gaining traction in the currency area, adding: "We have therefore reaffirmed our forward guidance and stressed that we are determined to act swiftly if required and do not rule out further monetary policy easing." - Could this be any more telegraphic? How about his following statement, then: "he again noted that next month's ECB Staff forecasts for medium-term inflation would be the main criteria for any interest rate decision by the Governing Council when it meets in Frankfurt on June 5." - I'm willing to wait, but for now, let's look quickly at the technicals. WOLFE WAVES: The chart highlights a very relevant technical event, which is that of a Wolfe Waves completion in two separate granular scales, with Point-5's lining up precisely at the same time. The particular nature of Wolfe Waves is that it points to a TP zone along its 1-4 Line. I thought it interesting that the respective profit-taking lines crossed on Bastille Day, on July 14th, 2015 - Next year. PROP PATTERN & PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL CONVERGENCE: A prop pattern I own completed right at 1.38319. Here too, I found it interesting that it lined up closely to TG-1 = 1.38690, based on a prop model that I use in my predictive analysis and forecasting. This is the model that I have used to successfully define a reversal top and define targets - See charts under my profile for reference. OVERALL: Taken as a whole, the tone of the model is neutral to bearish, whereas the patterns are pointing to a degradation of the pair. But, in closing, here is what ECB Weidmann said this week: "Moreover, the real effective exchange rate of the euro is approximately where it was also at the start of Monetary Union." - Does he mean back down to 0.89000? Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Twitter: @4xForecaster
by 4xForecaster
19
DXY looking in danger of heading a lot lower, Euro higher.The Dollar Index (DXY), having made a false break to the to topside at the end of last week, has reversed aggressively and is now back below the 200 WMA (79.73) and appears set to test the recent low at 79.26. There is decent support there and again at 79.00-10. However a break of this would head quickly to 78.85 and then to the double bottom at 78.60, below which could be a bit of a black hole for the Index, with little support seen ahead of the Feb 2012 low at 78.09 and then the 61.8% Fibo support down at 77.24. If the support above 79.00 holds then we could see a near term squeeze to back above 80.00, although the weeks high of 80.45 currently looks well out of reach, with both the daily and weekly momentum indicators looking soft. Given that the Euro makes up 57.6% of the basket, this looks set to lead the way in keeping the dollar under pressure, and the charts tend to suggest that this time around, we could see a run to 1.4000, above which, there is not too much resistance until 1.4240. Go to www.fxcharts.com.au for a full daily outlook. Buying dips in the Euro seems to be the plan.
INDEX:DXY
by fxcharts
2