EUR/AUD H4 | Heading into overlap resistanceEUR/AUD is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.6333 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 1.6439 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.6185 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Euro
EUR/USD Extends Decline as USD Strengthens Ahead of FOMC MinutesAs predicted, EUR/USD continues its downward trajectory against the US Dollar, which is performing strongly ahead of the much-anticipated FOMC Minutes release. The dollar’s strength is fueled by the market’s expectations of more insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. With the FOMC minutes on the horizon, the price of EUR/USD may drop further, presenting traders with critical levels to watch for a possible retracement.
Technical Outlook: Key Areas for a Potential Rebound
We have identified two crucial retracement zones where a reversal could occur. These levels, based on historical price action and current market sentiment, may offer opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the next potential move. However, patience is essential as we await the market’s reaction to the FOMC Minutes, which could trigger volatility and provide clearer direction.
Sentiment Analysis: Divergence Between Retail and Smart Money
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows an interesting shift in market sentiment. Retail traders turned bearish last week, likely responding to the recent strength of the US Dollar. However, when zooming out to a six-month view, these retail traders are still predominantly long, indicating some indecision in the broader market.
In contrast, Smart Money—typically institutional investors—has begun to accumulate long positions in EUR/USD. This divergence between retail traders and smart money suggests that while short-term sentiment favors a bearish outlook, institutional traders are positioning for a potential upward move in the future.
Patience is Key
At this stage, patience remains the most important tool for traders. With critical levels identified and the market still digesting the strength of the US Dollar, we are awaiting a clear reaction to the price levels shown on the chart. The upcoming FOMC Minutes could act as the catalyst needed to confirm the next big move in EUR/USD.
Conclusion
EUR/USD continues its decline as the US Dollar rallies ahead of the FOMC Minutes. While short-term bearish sentiment dominates the market, institutional players are starting to accumulate long positions, signaling potential for a future rebound. Traders should remain cautious and patient, waiting for a clearer signal before taking action, particularly as we approach key price levels that may offer opportunities for retracement.
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EURGBP: Significant upside potential on the short term.EURGBP is neutral on its 1D techhnical outlook (RSI = 48.804, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 22.675) as it consolidates having failed to cross over the 1D MA50. Given the 1 year Channel Down pattern, the 1D MA50 shouldn't stand as a Resistance for long, since the price is having this rebound after a clear LL on its bottom. We expect the 1D MA200 to be tested (TP = 0.8500) with the upside potentially extending as high as +2.80%.
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EURUSD: Dead cat bounce to 1.10500 expected.EURUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.133, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 30.825) which given the fact that the price is approaching the LL trendline, it allows for some room to recover some losses. We expect this to be a dead cat bounce but a short term buy opportunity nonetheless. Target the 4H MA200 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 1.10500).
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Euro H4 | Rising into pullback resistanceThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.1005 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.1065 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 1.0951 which is a multi-swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURUSD Confirmed sell signal with MA50 (1d) confirmationEURUSD broke below the MA50 (1d) for the first time since August 2nd, which is a technical sell signal.
The MA50 (1d) has been the pivot of the Ascending Triangle and every break below it has delivered more downside.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the next rebound to the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 1.078000 (Support A).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is posting the same pattern of the December top. Technical sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Euro can rise a little and then continue to decline nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price entered to range, where at once fell to the current resistance level and then rebounded up. EUR rose to the top part of the range and then turned around and dropped to the resistance area, thereby exiting from the range. After this, the price started to grow inside the upward channel, making a fake breakout of the 1.1030 level. Inside the channel, the price rose to the 1.1175 level, after which rebounded and fell to the support line of the channel, and then it backed up. EUR even rose higher than the seller zone, reached the resistance line of the channel, and then made a correction movement, breaking the 1.1175 level again. After this, the price in a short time rose to the seller zone and then made an impulse down, thereby breaking the 1.1175 level, and exited from the upward channel. Also soon, Euro broke the 1.1030 level and now it is trying to grow. For this case, I think that the price can grow to the resistance area and then continue to decline more. That's why I set my TP at 1.0900 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Is It Still Bearish for the EURUSDWhile on the Monthly and Weekly we see this pair in a bearish swing, on the Daily, it appears to be in a Bullish swing. We have seen prices while sustaining the bullish swing, go through a strong bearish retracement. Price has come all the way into the Daily reversal zone.
At this point, we expect to see some form of reversal and for prices to begin the bullish extension towards the Daily liquidity target.
Where this happens, we will look to enter on long positions, using the panzy pips trading system.
In the unlikely event that prices continue to dip and the zone is breached, we will be look to see prices head for the Weekly liquidity target down below.
For whatever it is worth, the more likely direction, as at now, is a bullish reversal in the current zone, followed by a rally all the way up towards the Daily liquidity target.
EURUSD formed the first 4H Death Cross in 4 months.The Double Top on EURUSD last time we mentioned it (September 23, see chart below) worked perfectly and followed its technical bearish bias as not only did the price got rejected but also broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the May's Channel Up:
At the same time, the pair just completed its first Death Cross on the 4H time-frame in almost 4 months (since June 14) and every time in the past 2 and more years (except June 14) that it made that formation, it gave a solid medium-term (at least) sell signal.
As a result, there is no reason to diverge from the 1.08350 bearish Target, which as with the February 14 Low, it is on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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EURUSD 6/10/24Starting off the week with euro to the US dollar. I bearish bias came into play as we thought it might. we now have a longer term bearish outlook for this pair. We swept all of the liquidity that was based on the lower end of price action except for the low that we have marked which is relatively close to current price We have an area of supply to watch if we pull back to go lower. We also have a liquid high that's seated above that point. So take into consideration that we may break through the short term trajectory that we have made. this can give us a higher pullback to the upper higher time frame water block if this happens we are still expecting a short main bias here is for the area of supply to be tapped into in price action to sell to the low that we have marked.
Trade safe, stick to your plan and your risk.
EURO - Price can reach resistance area and then bounce downHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price rose to $1.1135 level, which coincided with the resistance level, and at once bounced down.
Price fell to $1.1005 level and then started to grow inside wedge, where it in a short time reached $1.1135 level.
After this, price some time traded between this level, until it finally broke it and then rose higher than resistance zone.
But then, EUR turned around and made strong downward impulse, thereby exiting from wedge and breaking $1.1135 and $1.1005 level.
Also, price little fell more, but recently it turned around and started to grow, so, I think it can reach resistance area.
Then Euro can bounce from resistance zone and start to decline to $1.0900
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EUR/USD Potential Rejection at Resistance ZoneAlthough EUR/USD isn't yet approaching the resistance zone, I'm anticipating that when the price returns to this level, we could see a rejection. This could lead to a pullback, offering a potential short opportunity once the price reaches this resistance.
EUR/USD Faces Downside as Powell's Hawkish Remarks Boost USDThe EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks on Monday continue to support the US Dollar (USD), capping any significant upside potential for the Euro (EUR). Powell’s stance suggests that the Federal Reserve is still focused on curbing inflation, which has strengthened the USD and weighed on the major pair.
At the same time, expectations for more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have contributed to keeping a lid on the EUR/USD. This comes ahead of key economic data releases, particularly the flash Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. The pair, as predicted last week, is currently trading within a supply area, with price action forming a double top pattern. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bullish on the Euro, while larger institutional players are more cautious, signaling potential downside risks.
The flash CPI report, due later today, is expected to show that inflation in the Eurozone likely fell below the ECB’s 2% target in September. This follows a notable drop in Germany’s CPI to its lowest level since February 2021, which reinforces expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB’s next policy meeting in October. A softer CPI print would likely reaffirm these rate cut bets, applying further downward pressure on the Euro.
However, even if the CPI reading comes in higher than expected, the market reaction could be muted. The modest strength of the USD, supported by Powell's comments and the overall hawkish stance of the Fed, suggests that EUR/USD may struggle to gain upward momentum. The path of least resistance for the pair remains to the downside, as the technical setup points to a potential bearish continuation.
In conclusion, with the EUR/USD pair trading in a supply area and forming a double top, coupled with a cautious outlook from institutional traders, the risk of a bearish continuation looms large. Key economic data, including the Eurozone CPI, will be closely watched today, but the fundamental backdrop remains in favor of the USD, keeping pressure on the pair. Traders should remain alert to further downside movement, especially if the ECB rate cut expectations solidify.
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EURUSD loosing downside momentumFX:EURUSD
The EURUSD is in the key Fibonacci Retracement level of between the 78.6% and 88.6% levels, volume is starting to decline to the downside, we have almost a complete 5-wave move, and we have a positive RSI divergence reading, after it reach oversold levels. Nice Risk-Reward ratio here, even if it manages to sweep the lows a little bite.
HelenP. I Euro will break support level and continue to decline Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price some days ago declined to the trend line and then at once rebounded up. Then the price reached the support level, which coincided with the support zone, and even made a fake breakout, after which declined below. Next, the price broke this level, made a retest, and then continued to move up to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone. Euro entered to resistance zone, but soon turned around and dropped to the trend line, making a fake breakout of the 1.1150 level. Some time later price rebounded from the trend line and quickly backed up to the resistance zone, breaking the 1.1150 level one more time. Euro some time traded near this level and a few moments ago dropped to almost the support level, thereby breaking the resistance level with trend line. For this case, I expect that the Euro will fall to the support level, then make a small move up, after which break this level and continue to move down. Or, it can break the support level at once and continue to decline, without movement up. That's why I set my goal at 1.0800 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Euro can exit from range and continue to decline nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price entered to wedge and at once started to decline to the support line from the resistance line. After this, the price turned around and made a strong impulse up to the resistance line of the wedge and then at once made a correction movement. Next, EUR continued to move up and soon reached the 1.1030 support level, but at once made a correction to the support line of the wedge and then rebounded up, breaking this level. After this, in a short time, the price rose to the seller zone, where it turned around and started to decline. Euro exited from the wedge and started to trades inside range, where it fell to the buyer zone. Soon, the price turned around and rose to the 1.1180 resistance level, which coincided with the top part of the range, making a fake breakout of the 1.1030 level. Also then, the EUR tried to break the resistance level, but failed and a not long time ago dropped to the support level. Just now, the price trades very close to this level inside range. For this reason, I think the price can break the support level, thereby exiting from the range and continuing to move down. Therefore I set my TP at 1.0920 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Euro H4 | Falling to swing-low supportThe Euro (EUR/USD) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.1005 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.
Stop loss is at 1.0985 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.
Take profit is at 1.1071 which is an overlap resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.