Euro Area Interest Rate Reduction a signal? Euro Area Interest Rate
◻️Reduced from 4.5% to 4.25% as expected
◻️We can acknowledge the pattern & recognize its significance without jumping to any immediate conclusions
◻️Chart will need to be combined with others to make assertions, such as the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread
U.S. 10Y/2Y Yield Spread with U.S. Unemployment rate
The amount of months that have passed prior to recession initiation after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards 0% level
◻️ Historical Average timeframe is April 2024
◻️ Historical Maximum timeframe would be Jan 2025
No guarantee that history will repeat. Again, just a chart and some data that is worth keeping an eye on. Some people state the bond market is now broken and manipulated, we should know within 12 - 18 months, or sooner.
PUKA
Euro
EURUSD 1H Short Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: EURUSD
Action: Sell
RRR: 1:6
SL: 1.08999
TP: 1.06817
Indicators:
EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction.
MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend.
Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
EURO - Price can make little correction and then continue riseHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price entered to triangle where it first fell to support line and then bounced up.
Price reached resistance level and at once made downward impulse, exiting from triangle and breaking $1.0700 level.
But soon, price started to grow inside rising channel, where it in a short time broke support level and continued to grow.
Next, EUR reached $1.0880 level, but at once bounced down to support line of rising channel.
Recently price reached resistance level and now it trades very close to this level, so I think EUR can make a correction.
After this, price can break resistance level and continue to grow to $1.0975
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EUR/JPY looks ready to ripThe ECB are expected to cut their benchmark rate for the first time in 8 years in a few hours. Yet as it has been so well telegraphed and they seem unlikely to provide promise of further cuts just yet, we suspect upside potential for euro pairs once the dust has settled. And with Wall Street at new highs and appetite for risk on the rise, EUR/JPY looks good for long setups.
A bullish inside day formed on Wednesday, and whilst it met resistance at the 2008 high it has since found support at the 20-day EMA. The daily chart shows prices holding above the daily pivot point, and a bullish engulfing candle has formed with a bullish RSI divergence. A bullish flag also appears to be forming.
The bias remains bullish above 169, although the 20-day EMA or cycle lows can be used to aid with risk management if momentum turns higher. A break above 170 brings the daily R2 / 61.8% projection into focus, and the flag suggests a target just above the 170.72 highs.
Could 1.50 Resistance Spark Another 1,000 Pip Drop?The EURCAD pair has been steadily rising since the beginning of the year. After a brief stall at the 1.48 weekly resistance, which was broken last month, we have seen a drop and retest of this level, now acting as support. Price has already surpassed last month’s high this week. So, what’s next?
The most logical next target for bulls is the 1.50 resistance, a historically tough level to break over the past four years. Each attempt to move past it resulted in the weekly candle closing below the level. If you read a previous idea I posted last year on this pair we sold at the exact same level
In fact if you zoom into the daily charts we can see that price is actually stuck in a near 1,000 pip daily range between 1.51 and 1.42 (see image below)
I expect price to move up into the top of the range between 1.50 and 1.51. At this point, I will look for sell signals using my TRFX indicator or signs of slowing momentum on lower time frames.
To identify slowing momentum, I examine lower time frame charts (4-hour to daily) for price transitioning into a sideways movement pattern as it approaches the sell zone. Divergence signals on the MACD are particularly useful for spotting this momentum shift.
My first target for this position is the previous resistance, now support, slightly below 1.48. Price may see a short bounce at this level and possibly retest 1.50, where we can enter another sell signal.
Next, I target a move down to February’s weekly swing low at 1.45, followed by a move to the bottom of the range at 1.42. The likely path is charted below.
For this trade to be invalidated, we would need to see a weekly or monthly close well above 1.50, indicating buyers aiming for mid-1.50 levels.
Given past reactions at 1.50 and the significance of this high time frame (HTF) level, a sell position is the most realistic approach for now.
Let me know your thoughts below.
EURAUD Still bearish within the Channel Down.This is basically an update to our last EURAUD analysis (April 05, see chart below) two months ago:
As you can see the price was rejected at the top of the 1-year Channel Down but since May 07 has turned sideways. In fact, looking at the 1D RSI, we see a Higher Lows Bullish Divergence since April 09, while the price was on Lower Lows.
This is similar to the Higher Lows that started on December 01 2023 and resulted in a Bullish Leg of +3.39%. As a result, we are taking profit on our sell position and open a buy, targeting 1.6550 (top of the so far dominant Channel Down).
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HelenP. I Euro will reach resistance level and then start fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Some time ago price started to rise inside the upward channel, where it finally reached the support level, which coincided with the support zone, but at once rebounded down to the trend line, which is the support line also. Then price rebounded up from this line and soon broke the support level, after which made correction movement to this level. Next, EUR continued to move up in the channel and in a short time later reached the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, but at once rebounded and started to decline. Price fell to the trend line and then rebounded up to the 1.0890 level, but when it reached this level, EUR turned around and in a short time declined lower trend line, thereby breaking it and exiting from the upward channel. Later price rose to the resistance zone, but recently turned around and in a short time declined back and now it trades very close to the trend line. For this case, I expect that EURUSD will rise to the resistance level and then rebound down the lower trend line, breaking it one more time. That's why I set my goal at 1.0890 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD Bullish break-out or Bearish rejection?The EURUSD pair cemented a strong rebound yesterday as it broke above the May 16 High, after it held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. This took yesterday's 1D candle exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the December 28 2023 Channel Down.
This is the last chance for the pair to resume the pattern's downtrend, if today's 1D candle closes inside the Channel Down, which will constitute a Lower Highs rejection. In that case, we will require a closing below the 1D MA50 as well in order to confirm the downtrend. The 1.0640 Support will be the Target.
If however the candle closes above the Channel Down, it will be a confirmed bullish break-out and in our opinion there will be high probabilities of imitating the July 2023 rally. That rise peaked exactly on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level, so on that occasion, that will be our Target (1.1125), which conveniently falls just below the 1.11400 Resistance. Notice also how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two fractals.
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EURUSD: Buy the 4H MA50 pullback and sell at the top.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.032, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 27.518) and on 4H it is attempting a closing above the R1 level. On the short term we have a Channel Up that will validate the new Bullish Leg if we close a 4H candle over the R1 level. If that happens, we will buy the first pullback to the 4H MA50 and aim for a +1.43% from the latest Low (TP = 1.09400), exactly what took place on April 26th. In the same manner, we will short then and aim for the 4H MA200 (TP = 1.08500).
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EURUSD → it formed a descending widening wedgehello guys...
as you can see OANDA:EURUSD broke the descending channel and now it is on top of the breaking area!
FX:EURUSD is forming a descending widening wedge and I put a example of this pattern here!
I believe if you wanna get a long position on eurusd, be ready to break the top line of this pattern!
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Euro can fall to bottom part of range and then bounce upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. By observing the chart, we can see that the price entered an upward channel, where it soon reached the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and broke it. After this, EUR a little rose, after which made a correction movement to the support line of the channel and then in a short time rose to the resistance line of the channel. Then the price turned around, a little declined, after which continued to move up inside an upward channel. Later price exited from this channel, and even entered to seller zone, but soon turned around and started to trades in the range, making a fake breakout of 1.0870 resistance level. Inside the range, the price fell almost to the bottom part, after which rose back to the seller zone, but at once turned around and fell again. After which, EUR started to grow and in a short time rose to a resistance level and a not long time ago turned around and started to decline. Now I think the price can decline to almost the bottom part of the range and then rebound up to the seller zone. For this reason, I set my target at 1.0890 points, which is located in the seller zone. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can exit from triangle and fall to support levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price bounced from support area, which coincided with support level, and rose to resistance area.
Then EUR started to decline in falling channel and soon exited from resistance area, making fake breakout.
In channel, price declined until to support line, broke $1.0820 level, but then it made strong upward impulse.
After this, price exited from channel and later started to trades inside triangle, where it fell lower support level again.
Soon Euro bounced up from support line of triangle to resistance line, breaking $1.0820 level again.
Recently it started to decline, so, I think EUR can little rise and continue to fall to $1.0820 level, exiting of triangle.
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EURUSD: Your Support & Resistance Levels For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important key levels to focus on EURUSD next week.
Resistance 1: 1.0880 - 1.0896 area
Resistance 2: 1.0921 - 1.0942 area
Resistance 3: 1.0947 - 1.0982 area
Support 1: 1.0788 - 1.0800 area
Support 2: 1.0723 - 1.0748 area
Support 3: 1.0649 - 1.0666 area
Support 4: 1.0600 - 1.0619 area
Consider these structure for pullback/breakout trading.
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EURUSD, short to bears accumulation zone 1.0768 - 1.0789Hi friend. Today sunday 08:00 UTC and EURUSD market closed. I analyse 1H timeframe and seen big bulls accumulation zone (green area). Between 1.0810 and 1.0870 market in agressive maner catching bulls and sold to them. But my opinion market do it very active .. and prcie will fall to bears acc area: 1.0768 - 1.0789.📉
Dont forget to support me. And have a nice trading week. 💪
Also remember that forex like another exchange tipes its a real time process with many "x" and "y" situations. Market situation is constantly changing. And an idea is relevant for some certain period until situation changes.
HelenP. I Euro can correct to support level and continue to riseHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price some time traded near support 2, which coincided with the support zone and then rebounded down to the trend line. After this movement, the Euro turned around and in a short time rose from the trend line to support 2, broke this level and made retest. Then the price made movement up, after which made a correction to support 2 and then continued to grow. Euro reached support 1, which coincided with the resistance zone, broke this level and some time traded higher even the resistance zone. Later EUR fell to the trend line, which rebounded and backed up at once, but soon it turned around and made an impulse down, thereby breaking support 1 with the trend line too. After this move, the price turned around and in a short time rose to the resistance zone, breaking support 1 one more time, and just now it continues to trades in the resistance area. For this case, I expect that EURUSD will make the little move down to the support level and then rebound up to the trend line. Then, the price can break this line and continue to grow, therefore I set my goal at 1.0915 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
After fake breakout of support level, Euro can continue to growHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price rebounded from the support level and made an upward movement, after which turned around and started to decline inside the downward channel. In the channel, the price declined to the 1.0805 support level, which coincided with the support area, and soon broke this level and fell to the support line of the channel. Then, the Euro rebounded up and rose to the channel's resistance line, breaking the support level again, and even soon price exited from the downward channel and continued to grow. But later, the price turned around and made a downward impulse to 1.0600 points, breaking the support level one more time, and then the Euro started to rise inside an upward wedge. In a wedge, EUR in a short time rose to the 1.0805 level, broke it, and rose to the resistance line of the wedge, after which turned around and fell to the support area. But not a long time ago EUR bounced up from the support area, making a fake breakout of the support level and now, in my opinion, the price can make retest of the support level, after the fake breakout. Then price will continue to move up to the resistance line of the wedge. For this case, I set my target at 1.0910 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD - BEARISH SCENARIO (New Double TOP)
As we talked in the previous analysis:
The Price Has Pulled Back to The Resistance Line.
At the moment, the market reached the resistance level (1.08375 - 1.08851) and failed to break it !
The price formed a new double top pattern.
So Let's expect the bearish scenario:
if the market breaks the neckline and closes below that!
We will see a bearish move
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TARGET: 1.07500🎯
EURUSD TURTLE SOUP SETUP SHORT - BEFORE INTEREST RATE CUTHi. I am bearish on EURUSD now as it reached the price I was interested to open short.
Interest Rate cut for EUR is coming in June, the dollar should start reversing around now.
CFTC reported recently more commercial shorts compared to longs (attached).
Stop loss on chart.
Target 1: 1.081
Final target on retest of flip zone.
EURO - Price can reach resistance area and then bounce downHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price entered to rising channel, where it rose to support level, but at once bounced down.
Price fell to support line of channel and then made upward impulse to resistance line, breaking $1.0740 level.
Then Euro corrected to support level and then in a short time rose to $1.0875 level, exiting from rising channel.
Euro started to trades in flat, and firstly it made fake breakout of $1.0875 level, after which declined to bottom part of flat.
Soon, price rose to resistance area, after which turned around and recently fell below, making fake breakout again.
Now, I think that EUR can rise to resistance area and then bounce down to $1.0805 bottom part of flat.
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