Euro Slumps on Populist Surge: A Trader's Guide to Uncertainty
The European political landscape has just thrown a curveball at the financial markets. A recent poll indicating a rise in populist and eurosceptic parties has sent shockwaves through the system, triggering a significant drop in the euro. This newfound uncertainty presents both risks and opportunities for traders, demanding a strategic shift in approach.
The poll results paint a picture of a fractured Europe, with anxieties swirling about the future unity and stability of the European Union. Investors, understandably jittery, have reacted swiftly by pulling back on euro-denominated assets. This has resulted in a sharp decline in the euro's value against other major currencies. The coming days and weeks are likely to be marked by continued volatility in the eurozone, creating a complex environment for traders to navigate.
Adaptability is paramount in this climate. With the potential for further political escalation, the euro's depreciation could accelerate. In such a scenario, shorting the euro – essentially betting on its decline – could be a viable strategy. However, this is a tactic that requires meticulous planning and precise timing. Traders must carefully weigh the risks involved against the profit potential.
To make informed decisions, staying abreast of developments is crucial. Closely monitoring the political climate and key economic indicators that could influence the euro is essential. Real-time news updates, expert analysis, and access to reliable data sources are your weapons of choice in these turbulent waters. Additionally, implementing robust risk management techniques will be your safety net, protecting your investments from unforeseen market swings.
The current situation presents a unique opportunity for astute traders. By evaluating existing positions, considering the potential benefits of shorting the euro, and formulating a well-defined strategy, you can transform these challenges into opportunities. While the path ahead may be unclear, adopting the right approach can empower you to thrive in this volatile market.
By following these steps and leveraging our resources, you can transform uncertainty into an advantage and emerge from this market turbulence a winner.
Euro
EURO - Price can make small move up and then continue fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price entered to rising channel, where firstly it broke support level, which coincided with support area.
Then, in a short time, price rose higher than $1.0670 level, breaking it again and then made correction.
After this, EUR continued to move up in channel and reached $1.0790 level, which soon broke too and exited from channel.
Next, price started to trades in flat, where it reached two times top part and the last time in made downward impulse.
Price exited from flat and broke $1.0790 level, but recently it turned around and start to move up.
Possibly, Euro can rise to almost resistance level and then continue to decline to $1.0670 support level.
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EURUSD - 1H SellThe EURUSD chart indicates a potential bearish movement. The recent price action suggests that the pair is experiencing a weakening of the bullish momentum. After reaching a recent peak, the price is showing signs of a downward trend, indicating a possible decline towards the highlighted support zone around 1.08400.
The price action around this level is crucial; if the support zone fails to hold, we could see a continuation of the downtrend. This setup aligns with the current market sentiment, pointing towards further selling pressure. Traders should watch for confirmations around the support zone to determine the next move.
European instability causing weakness in the euroAfter the EU Parliamentary elections, there is a rise of nationalism and protectionism among some individual EU states. The euro is feeling the heat, as EU stability is under threat.
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EURCAD potential 400PIPS!! SELL opportunityEUR/CAD is setting up for a lucrative short trade as it retraces to test the descending trend line resistance around the 1.4950 region. This technical pattern suggests a high-probability reversal, where traders can look for bearish entries. Target the first take-profit (TP1) at the immediate support level of 1.4700, and if the bearish momentum continues, aim for TP2 at the significant support zone around 1.4450. This confluence of trend line resistance and key support levels creates a compelling sell setup, perfect for traders looking to capitalize on EUR/CAD's anticipated downtrend. Enter short near 1.4950 with a stop loss above the trend line, maximizing profit potential as the price targets lower support zones!
EURUSD is Ready to Fall===>>RR=2.20EURUSD is moving in the Resistance zone($1.092-$1.087) .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , EURUSD seems to have succeeded in completing the main wave 5 with the Expanding Ending Diagonal .
I expect EURUSD to at least fall to the Support zone($1.0806-$1.0781) .
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰.
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HelenP. I Euro can turn around and then rebound upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. A not long time ago price started to trades inside consolidation, where it at once declined to almost support level, which coincided with the bottom part of the range and then turned around and started to grow. In a short time EUR reached a resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, but at once rebounded and fell until to trend line, after which backed up to the range, making a fake breakout of 1.0800 level. Then price started to grow and in a short time rose to the resistance level, and broke it, thereby exiting from consolidation and continuing to move up. But later price turned around and fell lower than the 1.0880 level, breaking it again and then some time trading near the resistance level. One time, it fell to the trend line, after which rebounded up higher resistance level, but a few moments ago made a strong impulse down, breaking the 1.0880 level and also the trend line. Now, the price tried to break the support level, so, for my mind, EURUSD will make a small movement down and then rebound up, making a fake breakout of a support level. After this, the price can continue to grow, so, for this case, I set my goal at 1.0840 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURAUD: Confirmed Bullish Reversal?! 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
EURAUD formed a huge inverted head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame.
With the release of the yesterday's fundamentals, the price bounced and violated
the neckline of the pattern.
Growth may continue next week.
Next resistance - 1.6475
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Euro can rebound from support level and start to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price a not long time ago started to decline inside the downward channel, where it rebounded from the support line and rose to the resistance line, after which continued to decline near this line. In a short time, EUR fell to a support level and even made a fake breakout of it, after which turned around and made a strong upward impulse, exiting from the downward channel. Then price almost reached the resistance level, turned around, and fell lower 1.0810 level, breaking it. But then, EURUSD turned around and started to grow inside an upward pennant, where it broke the support level again and later the resistance level too, reaching the resistance line of the pennant. After this, the price bounced down, breaking the 1.0890 level, which coincided with the seller zone again. But then, the price tried to back up and even made a fake breakout of this level, after which made impulse down, exiting from the pennant. Now, I think that the Euro can decline to a support level and then start to grow, therefore I set my target at 1.0870 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURNZD: Buy Opportunity
Well, as you can see, the price hit the daily bullish FVG in deep discount and cleared the sell-side liquidity. Here in the hourly chart, we know the market structure shifted and we are bullish now.
Now we are on the buy side of the curve so we expect the price to stay above the key level and respect the bullish PD Arrays, like Order block and FVG that you can see on the chart.
We need LTF confirmation for entry.
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🔎 DYOR
🗓️06/06/2024
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Euro Area Interest Rate Reduction a signal? Euro Area Interest Rate
◻️Reduced from 4.5% to 4.25% as expected
◻️We can acknowledge the pattern & recognize its significance without jumping to any immediate conclusions
◻️Chart will need to be combined with others to make assertions, such as the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread
U.S. 10Y/2Y Yield Spread with U.S. Unemployment rate
The amount of months that have passed prior to recession initiation after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards 0% level
◻️ Historical Average timeframe is April 2024
◻️ Historical Maximum timeframe would be Jan 2025
No guarantee that history will repeat. Again, just a chart and some data that is worth keeping an eye on. Some people state the bond market is now broken and manipulated, we should know within 12 - 18 months, or sooner.
PUKA
EURUSD 1H Short Trade - 1:6 RRRPair: EURUSD
Action: Sell
RRR: 1:6
SL: 1.08999
TP: 1.06817
Indicators:
EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction.
MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend.
Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
EURO - Price can make little correction and then continue riseHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price entered to triangle where it first fell to support line and then bounced up.
Price reached resistance level and at once made downward impulse, exiting from triangle and breaking $1.0700 level.
But soon, price started to grow inside rising channel, where it in a short time broke support level and continued to grow.
Next, EUR reached $1.0880 level, but at once bounced down to support line of rising channel.
Recently price reached resistance level and now it trades very close to this level, so I think EUR can make a correction.
After this, price can break resistance level and continue to grow to $1.0975
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EUR/JPY looks ready to ripThe ECB are expected to cut their benchmark rate for the first time in 8 years in a few hours. Yet as it has been so well telegraphed and they seem unlikely to provide promise of further cuts just yet, we suspect upside potential for euro pairs once the dust has settled. And with Wall Street at new highs and appetite for risk on the rise, EUR/JPY looks good for long setups.
A bullish inside day formed on Wednesday, and whilst it met resistance at the 2008 high it has since found support at the 20-day EMA. The daily chart shows prices holding above the daily pivot point, and a bullish engulfing candle has formed with a bullish RSI divergence. A bullish flag also appears to be forming.
The bias remains bullish above 169, although the 20-day EMA or cycle lows can be used to aid with risk management if momentum turns higher. A break above 170 brings the daily R2 / 61.8% projection into focus, and the flag suggests a target just above the 170.72 highs.
Could 1.50 Resistance Spark Another 1,000 Pip Drop?The EURCAD pair has been steadily rising since the beginning of the year. After a brief stall at the 1.48 weekly resistance, which was broken last month, we have seen a drop and retest of this level, now acting as support. Price has already surpassed last month’s high this week. So, what’s next?
The most logical next target for bulls is the 1.50 resistance, a historically tough level to break over the past four years. Each attempt to move past it resulted in the weekly candle closing below the level. If you read a previous idea I posted last year on this pair we sold at the exact same level
In fact if you zoom into the daily charts we can see that price is actually stuck in a near 1,000 pip daily range between 1.51 and 1.42 (see image below)
I expect price to move up into the top of the range between 1.50 and 1.51. At this point, I will look for sell signals using my TRFX indicator or signs of slowing momentum on lower time frames.
To identify slowing momentum, I examine lower time frame charts (4-hour to daily) for price transitioning into a sideways movement pattern as it approaches the sell zone. Divergence signals on the MACD are particularly useful for spotting this momentum shift.
My first target for this position is the previous resistance, now support, slightly below 1.48. Price may see a short bounce at this level and possibly retest 1.50, where we can enter another sell signal.
Next, I target a move down to February’s weekly swing low at 1.45, followed by a move to the bottom of the range at 1.42. The likely path is charted below.
For this trade to be invalidated, we would need to see a weekly or monthly close well above 1.50, indicating buyers aiming for mid-1.50 levels.
Given past reactions at 1.50 and the significance of this high time frame (HTF) level, a sell position is the most realistic approach for now.
Let me know your thoughts below.
EURAUD Still bearish within the Channel Down.This is basically an update to our last EURAUD analysis (April 05, see chart below) two months ago:
As you can see the price was rejected at the top of the 1-year Channel Down but since May 07 has turned sideways. In fact, looking at the 1D RSI, we see a Higher Lows Bullish Divergence since April 09, while the price was on Lower Lows.
This is similar to the Higher Lows that started on December 01 2023 and resulted in a Bullish Leg of +3.39%. As a result, we are taking profit on our sell position and open a buy, targeting 1.6550 (top of the so far dominant Channel Down).
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HelenP. I Euro will reach resistance level and then start fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Some time ago price started to rise inside the upward channel, where it finally reached the support level, which coincided with the support zone, but at once rebounded down to the trend line, which is the support line also. Then price rebounded up from this line and soon broke the support level, after which made correction movement to this level. Next, EUR continued to move up in the channel and in a short time later reached the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, but at once rebounded and started to decline. Price fell to the trend line and then rebounded up to the 1.0890 level, but when it reached this level, EUR turned around and in a short time declined lower trend line, thereby breaking it and exiting from the upward channel. Later price rose to the resistance zone, but recently turned around and in a short time declined back and now it trades very close to the trend line. For this case, I expect that EURUSD will rise to the resistance level and then rebound down the lower trend line, breaking it one more time. That's why I set my goal at 1.0890 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD Bullish break-out or Bearish rejection?The EURUSD pair cemented a strong rebound yesterday as it broke above the May 16 High, after it held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. This took yesterday's 1D candle exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the December 28 2023 Channel Down.
This is the last chance for the pair to resume the pattern's downtrend, if today's 1D candle closes inside the Channel Down, which will constitute a Lower Highs rejection. In that case, we will require a closing below the 1D MA50 as well in order to confirm the downtrend. The 1.0640 Support will be the Target.
If however the candle closes above the Channel Down, it will be a confirmed bullish break-out and in our opinion there will be high probabilities of imitating the July 2023 rally. That rise peaked exactly on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level, so on that occasion, that will be our Target (1.1125), which conveniently falls just below the 1.11400 Resistance. Notice also how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two fractals.
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EURUSD: Buy the 4H MA50 pullback and sell at the top.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.032, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 27.518) and on 4H it is attempting a closing above the R1 level. On the short term we have a Channel Up that will validate the new Bullish Leg if we close a 4H candle over the R1 level. If that happens, we will buy the first pullback to the 4H MA50 and aim for a +1.43% from the latest Low (TP = 1.09400), exactly what took place on April 26th. In the same manner, we will short then and aim for the 4H MA200 (TP = 1.08500).
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