EURUSD 17/11/24As we head into this week, we maintain a bearish bias on the EUR/USD pair. This aligns with last month’s trend, where we consistently sold this pair to the downside. Without a shift in bias, we expect this bearish momentum to continue.
Looking at the chart, we’ve identified two key areas of interest for potential selling opportunities. First, there’s a short-term high located around the middle of the current range. This is also a 4-hour high that swept previous short-term highs. Above this, we see an area of unmitigated supply that triggered the last major break of structure, along with a liquidity high just above it. If the price pulls back, it could interact with this supply zone and possibly take out the liquidity highs.
However, this pullback would be a counter-trend move. Our primary expectation remains for the price to continue its downward trajectory toward the lows. Last week, the price swept a daily low, highlighted by an arrow on the left-hand side of the screen. This sweep led to a notable upward push, which, while counter-trend, could serve as the catalyst for the pullback we anticipate.
The market open will be interesting to watch. If the price gaps upward, it could indicate an intent to move higher before potentially filling the gap later in the week. This would align with the bearish continuation we’ve forecasted.
Trade safe and stick to your plan.
Euro
Trading is not a get rich quick scheme🔸Patience
▪️Market Timing: Not every moment is the right time to trade. Waiting for the ideal setup is crucial. For example, a patient trader waits for patterns, trends, or specific signals to align with their strategy.
▪️Compounding Growth: Wealth through trading often comes from compounding small, consistent gains rather than chasing big wins. This takes time to materialize.
▪️Recovery Time: Losses are inevitable. Patience allows traders to focus on gradual recovery rather than impulsively trying to "win back" losses.
🔸Discipline
▪️Sticking to the Plan: A trading plan is your blueprint. Discipline ensures you execute trades based on logic, not emotion.
▪️Avoiding Overtrading: The temptation to trade constantly can lead to unnecessary risks. A disciplined trader knows when to step back.
▪️Risk Management: Proper position sizing, setting stop losses, and avoiding over-leveraging are all practices rooted in discipline.
🔸Consistent Effort
▪️Continuous Learning: Markets evolve, and so must traders. Keeping up with new strategies, tools, and market conditions is essential.
▪️Routine Analysis: Reviewing past trades to learn what worked and what didn’t helps improve strategies.
▪️Building Experience: Expertise comes from time spent observing patterns, managing emotions, and handling a variety of market scenarios.
🔸Mindset
▪️Long-Term Thinking: Focus on building wealth slowly rather than chasing immediate profits.
▪️Resilience: Markets can be unpredictable. A strong mindset helps traders stay focused after setbacks.
▪️Adaptability: Successful traders adapt their strategies to fit different market conditions instead of forcing trades.
🔸The Journey, Not the Destination
▪️The idea of "getting rich" in trading is often a trap that leads to rushed decisions and excessive risk-taking. Instead, embrace the process:
▪️Track your progress: Measure success in terms of skill improvement, not just profits.
▪️Celebrate small wins: These build confidence and keep you motivated for the long haul.
▪️Remember, trading is a craft—those who approach it with respect, patience, and consistent effort are the ones most likely to achieve sustainable success.
What I wish I knew when I started Trading1. Study and Trade One Pair Only
Focusing on a single currency pair can streamline your learning and help you master market dynamics.
🔸Choose a Pair: Start with major pairs like EUR/USD or USD/JPY. These have high liquidity and predictable patterns.
🔸Understand Its Behavior: Learn the fundamentals and technical characteristics of the pair, such as its volatility, reaction to news, and typical trading hours.
🔸Backtesting and Practice: Use historical data to understand how the pair moves under different market conditions.
2. Losses Are Part of Trading
No trader is immune to losses. Handling them effectively is crucial for long-term success.
Mindset:
🔸Accept Losses as Learning Opportunities: View losses as part of the cost of doing business, akin to inventory in retail.
🔸Detach Emotionally: Avoid the temptation to revenge trade or let losses affect your confidence.
Practical Strategies:
🔸Set Risk Parameters: Only risk 1-2% of your trading account per trade. This limits the damage of a losing streak.
🔸Use Stop Losses: Predetermine the point at which you will exit a trade if it goes against you. This protects you from devastating losses.
🔸Keep a Journal: Document each trade, including reasons for entering, outcomes, and what you learned. Over time, patterns will emerge to guide improvement.
3. Develop Discipline and Patience
🔸Stick to a Trading Plan: Define your entry, exit, and risk management strategies before trading.
🔸Trade Less, Win More: Focus on high-probability setups instead of trading excessively.
🔸Give Yourself Time: Mastery in Forex trading can take years. Trust the process and aim for consistent improvement.
4. Build Resilience to Handle Losses
Self-Care:
🔸Step away from the charts after a big loss to regain perspective.
🔸Engage in activities that reduce stress, like exercise or meditation.
Review and Improve:
🔸Evaluate losing trades to identify errors.
🔸Adjust your strategy if recurring issues are found.
🔸Focus on the Big Picture:
🔸Track your performance over months or years, not days. This helps put individual losses into perspective.
EURUSD broke 13 month Low! Strong long term buy signal.EURUSD hit yesterday 1.0500, a price we last saw 13 months ago on October 13th 2023.
That is the bottom of the Rectangle pattern and it is technically a rare buy opportunity.
Additionally, it appears to be repeating the bearish wave of July - September 2023, which bottomed on step 4 and rebounded above the 0.618 Fibonacci extension.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.09235 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on a Rising Support, thus a Bullish Divergence. That is an additional buy signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
HelenP. I Euro will correct to trend line and then start to riseHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. In the chart, we can see how the price some time traded between resistance 2, which coincided with the resistance zone and later started to grow the trend line. When the price reached this line, it turned around and started to decline and soon broke the 2nd resistance level. After this, the price continued to fall below the trend line and when it fell to 1.0765 points, the price turned around and rose higher than the trend line, breaking it. Then the Euro rose to 1.0940 points, after which made impulse down to one more resistance zone, which coincided with 1st resistance level. Price tried to grow, but failed and continued to decline next, breaking the 1.0680 resistance level. And recently it reached the trend line and at once rebounded and started to grow. For this case, I expect that EURUSD will correct to the trend line and then start to grow to the 1.0680 resistance level, therefore this level is my goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Euro can exit from pennant and rise to 1.0700 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see how the price some days ago entered to range, where it at once fell to the resistance level, which coincided with the bottom part of the range. Then price bounced and in a short time rose to the top part of the range and some time traded near, after which it turned around and started to decline. In a short time price broke the 1.1005 resistance level, exited from range, and continued to decline inside the downward pennant. In this pattern, the EUR reached its current resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, and then started to grow. Price rose to the resistance line and then made impulse down. Euro broke the 1.0760 level, but tried to back and failed, after which continued to decline to support line of the downward pennant. When the price reached this line it a not long time ago rebounded and now, I think that the Euro can exit from the pennant, make a retest or not, and continue to move up. For this case, I set my TP close current resistance level, at 1.0700 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EUR/USD Outlook: Patience Is Key in Uncertain MarketsThe EUR/USD pair is gaining traction as the US Dollar Index retracts from its peak of 107.06, while the euro rebounded from the 1.0500 level yesterday.
The exchange rate remains within a key demand zone, and as noted previously, a price pullback could occur if it breaches this range, leading to retracement opportunities. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has remarked that the US economy is performing "remarkably well," which paves the way for a gradual reduction in interest rates.
In contrast, the minutes from the European Central Bank's October Monetary Policy Meeting suggested a growing inclination towards rate cuts, tempered by concerns over domestic inflation.
Today’s release of US Core Retail Sales and overall Retail Sales figures may shed light on the economic outlook. Should the euro continue its upward momentum, traders might contemplate a long position in the upcoming week. Our forecasting model indicates a potential price surge during this period; however, it’s important to recognize that market conditions are influenced by significant movements, including the Trump's rally that has been propelling the DXY to new highs.
Thus, exercise patience before entering any trades is recommended at this stage.
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Euro D1 | Pullback resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.0618 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.0680 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 1.0466 which is a swing-low support.
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EURJPY ShortThis currency had a bearish momentum when it touched 156 only to retract to the 0.5 fib level at 164.
If the price fails to break out of the 165 zone & a daily candle turns bearish by the end of this week, then it might continue / retract with the bearish momentum retesting the 156 level.
An analysis using a shorter time length will follow to indicate the best entry position.
EURO - Price can leave triangle and rise to $1.0765 levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price fell to $1.1085 level and some time traded near, after which bounced and rose to $1.1210 points.
Then price started to decline in falling channel, where it broke $1.1085 level and fell to support line at once.
In channel, EUR declined until to $1.0765 level, which coincided with resistance area and some time traded near.
Later, price exited from channel, and entered to triangle, but firstly made a gap and then bounced down.
Price broke $1.0765 level and now it trades near resistance line of triangle, so, I think can make correction.
After this, Euro will bounce up to $1.0765 resistance level, exiting from a triangle.
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EURGBP Channel Down but short-term rebound expected.The EURGBP pair is trading within a 1-year Channel Down pattern since the November 16 2023 High. Three days ago the price made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern and rebounded. This was also on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which based on the previous Bearish Leg, has high probabilities of sustaining a Bullish Leg.
Assuming the symmetry with January - April 2024 holds, we turn bullish now on this pair, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 0.84375.
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EUR/USD Remains Bearish Amid Trump's Economic PoliciesThe EUR/USD currency pair has experienced a sustained bearish trend for the past five days, largely influenced by the implications of the ongoing "Trump trade." Since the elections, this trade has significantly contributed to the rally of the US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's strength against a group of foreign currencies, has surged to its highest point since November 2023, driven by anticipations that the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump will act as a catalyst for growth.
Additionally, Trump's proposals to increase tariffs on imports are raising concerns that inflation may rise, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to halt its cycle of monetary easing. Recent data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), released Wednesday, suggests that the nation is making sluggish progress in curtailing inflation, implying that there may be fewer interest rate cuts on the horizon for the next year. This situation supports the persistence of high US Treasury bond yields and further elevates the USD's value broadly.
According to the latest report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline CPI recorded a rise of 0.2% in October, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Notably, the core CPI, which omits the more volatile prices of food and energy, climbed 0.3% last month and saw a 3.3% increase compared to the previous year. These figures reinforce speculation that the Fed could implement a third rate cut in December, amid signs of a cooling labor market.
From a technical analysis perspective, the price has approached our identified Demand zone, where we are on the lookout for a potential rebound. However, as of now, there are no indicators suggesting an imminent price increase. Therefore, exercising patience and waiting for confirmation is essential at this stage.
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EURUSD Macro Chart The macroeconomic situation forms a favorable background for assets valued in US dollars, with a tendency of their growth There comes a moment of domination of foreign currencies and displacement of the dollar. Shares of European companies will also show strong growth. The euro may have a noticeable impact on economic activity in the region and the structure of expenditures of the population.
EUR/USD Outlook: Positive Start Amid Market Anticipation of CPI As I write this article, the EUR/USD pair is kicking off the London session on a positive note, currently trading at 1.0623. However, caution prevails as traders await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, scheduled for publication at 13:30 GMT.
The forthcoming CPI report is anticipated to reveal an uptick in annual headline inflation, expected to rise to 2.6% from September’s 2.4%. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile prices of food and energy, is projected to experience a steady increase of 3.3%.
This inflation data is set to sway market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) potential monetary policy actions in December. The market currently expects a 25 basis point cut in interest rates, bringing the target range down to 4.25%-4.50%, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Nevertheless, the probability of this cut has decreased slightly, falling from 70% to 62% over the past week. Investors appear to be recalibrating their expectations, anticipating a more positive economic outlook for the US and heightened price pressures under the upcoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.
From a technical perspective, the market has entered a weekly demand zone (link provided below), which might facilitate a price rebound. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that while retail investors remain bearish, institutional investors—referred to as 'smart money'—are adopting a bullish stance, albeit with a degree of caution. Our forecasts suggest a possible bullish trend extending into mid-January.
For now, we will await today’s news before considering any long positions.
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EURUSD: Showing no signs of stopping before 1.04000.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.891, MACD = -0.007, ADX = 29.222), which is a sign of a potential slowdown on the October sell-off but not of stopping. We believe that as the price is approaching the bottom LL of the Channel Down, it will slow down in an attempt to form sideways a bottom as during the weeks of September 25th - October 16th 2023. The ideal entry will be with the 1W RSI as close to being oversold (30.000) as possible and symmetric 1W MACD shows it can happen by December 9th. That means that we can continue shorting the pair, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.04000), which is where the bottom was priced on October 2nd 2023.
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An idea for EUR/USDIt seems that the break of the long-term trend line of the euro was done the other day after the election of Trump as the president of the United States. In this range up to 1.06, we can expect to continue the fall. A position with R:R equal to slightly more than 1. It is not very attractive to enter, but you can think about it!
EURO - Price can bounce down from triangle to $1.0640 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price entered to rising channel, where some time grew near resistance line and then fell below.
After this, price in a short time rose to $1.0830 level, made correction, and then bounced up, breaking this level.
Next, price continued to grow in channel, and even made a gap, after which rose to $1.0935 points and turned around.
Price made downward impulse, breaking $1.0830 level and exiting from rising channel too, and started to trades in triangle.
In triangle, price fell to support area, after which bounced up to resistance line, but soon fell back.
Now, I expect that price can reach resistance line of triangle and then bounce down to $1.0640, breaking support level.
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gold 5 waves complete now abc correction in progress🔸Hello guys, today let's review 6hour price chart for gold. The 5 wave
bullish impulse is complete now we are entering ABC correction.
🔸Wave1 was 2335/2472, Wave2 2472/2372, Wave3 2371/2653,
Wave4 2653/2605, Wave5 2605/2770, now ABC correction, currently
A in progress 2770/2525.
🔸Recommended strategy for gold traders: higher risk bounce play
once A completes and transitions into B bounce, BUY/HOLD 2525
exit at 2678. Lower risk sell side setup: B completes near 2678
short sell into bounce exit at 2383 once C completes into liquidity
order block zone. good luck traders!
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EURCAD: Strong Bearish Pressure 🇪🇺🇨🇦
While USDCAD looks strongly bullish,
bears keep pushing EURCAD lower.
The price broke and closed below both a key daily horizontal support and a falling trend line - a vertical support.
It opens a potential for a bearish continuation lower at least to 1.479
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