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Eurodollar

This is Forex.. (Timing is Key) Correction with London 📻 Currently Sitting at 4Hr Supply Zone ( 1.09945 ) Looking for lower prices as price has touched into a 4hr Supply zone and we have an upcoming london session. What we may observe is a quick spike then a hard retreat back down to 1.098 or even 1.0945 ( Both of which are daily S/R Levels) . You can observe this behavior on Eurusd from last week. I will include a snapshot. A Brief description being as price was creating Higher Highs and Higher Lows on the daily timeframe EU was stairstepping it's way up by doing a retest at Daily S/R Zones. The wednesday Daily candle did a retest at 1.07817 Daily S/R Zone/. The Thursday daily candle did a retest at the 1.08126 Daily S/R Level. It's a recurring theme and is something we may anticipate as price continues to makes it's ascent. You may trade the pullback to the downside or wait for better Risk/Reward Long price areas. More attractive long prices area's being the 1.098 and 1.0945 Daily S/R Zones previously mentioned. Sometimes it's more about understanding the psychology of market participants and using this to your advantage. Price is High as we approach the 2nd to last london session of the week. But with london we will expect more volume and why not a pullback with this volume. We are sitting at a supply zone anyways. There is alot of liquitiy in forex and so you will not see insane 10% increases in 2 days like you can observe in crypto.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Impending Volatility ☕ / EurusdThe Weekly candle has touched into 1.1012, only 12 pips from our weekly resistance level 1.1024. On the daily timeframe we can observe a bearish candle Shooting star rejection candle is forming and price is currently below our 1.098 Daily S/R Zone. On the 4Hr timeframe we can observe price having issues with the 1.0995 4Hr Supply zone. The 2nd London 4hr candle has just closed bearish with a top wick twice the size of the body. The new 4hr candle thus far has confirmed our bearish thoughts as it has pushed down 14 pips in the first 15 minutes. 1Hr Timeframe : Price retreated during asian session pre-london towards our Daily S/R Level 1.098 which I capitalized on. We then rejected 1.098 S/R Zone upon initial retest as I forecasted in my prev publishing. We ran the highs from asian session and price made it's way a bit higher before pulling back hard for New York session open. We can observe clean traffic going back down 1.0956 and this is what I'm looking for to play out with sell stops .
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
6
News Speeches Stir the pot 🕊️// Eurusd We would like to see the Daily candle close above 1.0945 as this will confirm a breakout to the upside. The candle at that point will close above the daily resistance zone created by last friday's daily candle. The idea is that we have momentum leftover from last week and will see the curretn weekly candle push deeper into the Daily/Weekly zones above. Wild trading day for me but besides that Eurusd has seen a resurgence of bullish volume that we were anticipating after last weeks Weekly candle closure. We were anticipating a continuation of momentum this week and I mentnioned in my previous Eurusd publishing that we may pullback and conolisdate early in the week as the markets sets up. The market needs time to gather liquidity before it makes significant moves. It does that by causing alot of volatility and commotion in the short term in order to get traders on tilt and stir up the pot. Moving forward I'm looking towards a retest of the extreme 1Hr Zone 1.096 and eventually an increase to the next daily resistance level 1.0982 during the next london session.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Range until Upside on Thursday 📞Eurusd did quite a nice job of Holding 4hr support zone 1.09132. We are currently in a range with the resistance at 1.094. The Daily resistance level at 1.0945 held quite well during tuesday's London session. The NY session 4hr candle on Tuesday wicked beneath 4Hr support 1.09132 -> 15-18 some odd pips but closed back inside after buyers showed up and said not today. It is not odd to see the market pullback against the trend from the previous week on Monday/Tuesday as it has done here. The Size of the current " Bearish push" has been 1/8 the size of the Bullish push from the previous week. During the upcoming sessions I can observe a retest of 1.094 4Hr Resistance zone. We have 2 upcoming red folder speeches by Fed chair Jerome Powell which will impact USD strength. Unemployment claims on Thursday and Manufacturing data on Friday to wrap up the week. Unemployment data is supposed to be about flat from the prior week which I see as favorable for a continued ascent on Eurusd Weekly timeframe. Manufacturing data on Friday is forecasted to be mixed. Thinking we can give a good push back to the highs 1.096 1Hr Zone prior to red folder news on friday. The Market Moves Major pips on thursday's. This is because early on in the week the market is setting up. It's setting up for the trend move later on in the week. The Week Matures around Wednesday and Thursday. These are the days when it is especially a good idea to " Let your winners run" .
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Post-Interest Rates... 🏁--> Momentum Push? USD Interest rates helped to pull EURUSD back for better prices. Euro interest rates was the catalyst for a +1% increase in the EURUSD currency pair. The WeekIy candle can push a bit more to end off the week. We usually have a bunch of liquid just past extreme highs and that is what I am explaining on the chart. This is a price action concept. took buys at the beginning of the move and took my humble 14 pips. Anticipating a continuation of price to the upside with consumer sentiment tomorrow. It is expected to improve over the prior data point two weeks ago for the USD. Given the massive buy volume it is difficult for me to visualize that the current daily candle will not attempt at lease so some of push towards the next daily level 1.098 Daily Resistance Level.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Buyers are we Stretching the Luck? 🫢- Weekly Candle is Bullish and has pushed past the previous week's high creating a nice breakout of 77 pips - The 3 Daily candles this week have been Bullish - The Previous Daily candle increased by 70 pips in total ( 31 Pip Body and 40 Pips top wick ) - The previous daily candle's top wick was larger than the body of the candle itself. - The 4hr timeframe has closed two large engulfing bear candles in the time since Interest rates - The Market has punished late buyers with Interest rates data ( I called this out check previous post) - The market has seen a change of character and this has known to be a frequent occurrence with interest rate releases. - I don't think a randomness bias is associated with this Short Idea after we have seen 3 Bullish daily candles in a row ( The evidence above ) - The Market is Beast and representation of the psychology of all of it's participants. Follow your understanding of the price behavior and execute with only good Risk/Reward Ideas.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Ultimate Catalyst : Interest Rates NewsWe saw our increase on Eurusd Halted after the Fed raised rates 3 weeks ago. Now we gain more information on the reasons for their decision. The market has had time to digest the rates and resulted in a substantial decrease for the month of May. We must now observe how the market reacts to their reasons for an increase in rates and the cost of money. Will the dollar continue it's momentum and we see a Eurusd decrease, or will Eurusd pivot bullish in the short term as it digests the Fed's reasoning's. Bear Targets for the rest of May and the month of June are - 1.06654 Weekly Zone - 1.05426 Weekly Zone Bull targets for the rest of May are - a return to Daily level 1.08725 Bull targets for the month of June are - a return to 1.1024 weekly level - a push to 1.14655 Weekly level
by ShrewdCatfx
The Quiet before the Storm 🪁 : Eurusd With the close of the Daily candle in the next 1.5 Hours, Longs would prefer a candle closure above 1.0782. This would confirm another Higher High in market structure. In an uptrend price creates Higher Highs and Higher Lows. If this occurs then we can anticipate a bottom wick ( Higher Low) and then a consequential new bullish candle push to the upside back towards 1.0813 daily resistance zone. At this current time price is Bullish on the weekly timeframe and has broken the previously week's candles high. The Daily timeframe will print the second bullish candle of the week which was expected in my previous analysis. FOMC tomorrow will cause quite the stir. FOMC could cause Eurusd to easily dip back to retest 1.0746 Daily support level before continuing it's ascent or going into a volatile range. Price has reached my bullish target for the week which was 1.0813 ( a 65 pip increase ). CPI data has resulted in Higher High on the 1Hr timeframe. Price ended up pulling back and correcting the increase made during London session. We currently sit above our Daily S/R level 1.0782, late NY session Tuesday. New Bullish target for this week with fomc : 1.087 Daily resistance zone The way CPI data distributed at 1.0813 makes me think. We reached my weekly target 1.0813 before schedule. We had an initial increase in price and I'm sure some players bought the high and are now holding drawdown as we move into FOMC tomorrow. If I was a buyer I would consider getting out for B.E. because the Daily candle is closing in 1.5 hours with a significant top wick. Larger than the body of the bullish candle at least. New Bearish target for this week with fomc : 1.06915
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Sustainable Trend? / Eurusd Longs 🐂As price rejects our weekly Level 1.066 which began on May 31st, we map a possible scenario in which we may jump on the train with long positions. I am anticipating the new weekly candle to pullback first and create a bottom wick as most weekly candles contain. Price has arguably been in a range for the past 2 weeks. The Last 2 red folders news events last week assisted in the increase of price. I am anticipating the same sort of price action this week with CPI ( which is expected to decrease and in theory pump risk assets liek EUR) and Interest rates to be catlalysts for a further increase in price. I idea is that the general consensus for interest rates being held at the same rate supports our preceding trend to the upside. Because it will be priced in and the status quo maintains. The trend is developing to the upside and some news releases will act as a catalyst for a continuation or an excuse to pullback for lower price opportunities. If this bias blows over we may simply obersve a contiued rnage on Eurusd between Support level 1.06902 Daily Support level and 1.0776 (averaged) Daily resistance level. This range scenario or descent on Eurusd will occur if we observe risk off sentiment as crypto continues to plummet and we observe a correction on the U.S. stock indices. Institutions and other large players will crowd into buying the dollar and our ascent to 1.078 will look nothing more than a pump to lure in Late long liquidity as we fall back to 1.066 weekly level.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
The Euro SagaWelcome to our analysis of the EURUSD currency pair. We'll be examining the price actions captured on a 1-day (1D) candlestick chart, as well as a longer-term 6-month (6M) candlestick chart. On the 1D chart to the left, we can observe the trajectory of the Euro over the past year. The currency endured a steady decline throughout last year, eventually settling at a low around the 0.95 mark. However, in 2023, we witnessed a corrective rally that saw the Euro rebound to the 38.20% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, with the latter being tested twice. The current price action exhibits a certain level of neutrality, as corroborated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the 45 mark, which is typically interpreted as neutral. As we look to the week ahead, continuous upward momentum could potentially propel the Euro to revisit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which lies around the 1.127 mark. Transitioning to the 6M chart on the right, we see a broader picture that is quite revealing. The RSI trend over the decades has primarily been bearish, suggesting a persistent weakness in the Euro. This bearish divergence, characterized by the price reaching a high in 2008 while the RSI was recording lower highs, could indicate a lack of robustness and stability in the Euro. The implication of this analysis is not immediately clear but serves as an important consideration for investors. On this 6M chart, we've also highlighted the 61.8% Fibonacci level in yellow, which has acted as both a support and resistance level for the Euro multiple times over the past decades. This level demonstrates significant strength, and it could very likely be revisited in the upcoming weeks. Turning our attention to the fundamental aspect of this analysis, it's crucial to consider the latest news surrounding the Euro and European politics. It's been noted that the Eurozone's attempts to diversify its energy sources away from Russia will continue to face challenges due to unresolved geopolitical issues with the Kremlin into 2023. The threat of a complete cessation of Russian natural gas exports to Europe remains a significant risk. Also, despite Germany entering a recession, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still expected to raise interest rates further. The anticipation of more interest rate hikes by the ECB in the coming months is creating an expectation buffer for the EUR/USD pair, limiting any significant depreciating moves​. In conclusion, while the technical analysis presents a mid/short-term mixed outlook for the Euro, the undercurrents of the fundamental analysis provide additional depth to our understanding. Keep in mind that markets are dynamic and subject to change, and this analysis should be used as a guide rather than a guarantee. As always, it is recommended to use this information in conjunction with your own research and risk tolerance. Happy trading!
by bonsai_trade
Creation of the Top wick / Weekly Candle / End of WeekThere are only two things that can happen on Friday's Daily Candle 1) Price may continue to create a larger weekly candle body or 2) the weekly candle will form a larger wick and retrace This week we are observing the latter Price is pulling away from the High prices created during yesterday's New York Session If the Daily candle closes beneath 1.0762 then we have returned back into the range and will be eyeing out potential short setups to begin next week. For Buys I would've preferred that we would have held 1.07615 Daily S/R Zone as we can see it played a key role in pivoting on 6/2, 5/19, and 3/27 Now we continue the range as far as Im concerned. We may pullback to the highs ( 1.0774 and 1.0786) early next week ( Monday/Tuesday ) then dive back to support at 1.069 Daily Support.
by ShrewdCatfx
Ongoing Range above Key level 🎴We can observe the Ongoing Range above our Key Level ( Weekly Level 1.066 ) Monday Asian Session -> Bearish Monday London Session -> Bearish Monday NY Session -> Bullish Tuesday Asian Session -> Range, and at best slightly Bullish Tuesday London Session -> Bearish Tuesday NY Session -> Bullish Both London Session's this week have been Bearish thus far. As we approach unemployment claims data on Thursday NY Session, I can observe a Bullish London Session and increase overall on Eurusd until then. Price is not quite having the effect it once had when we initially dipped into our Weekly level last week 1.06636. The reactions off the Weekly level are becoming smaller and less pronounced. We are still holding steady however and price has not dipped below our weekly level since the initial touch. Short Sellers are happy that the Daily candle is closing bearish and they would prefer a close below Daily support at 1.06885. Buyers are happy that the decrease over the last 4 weeks on Eurusd has come to a halt as the Daily timeframe ranges above our weekly level through 1 week and 2 days into the next week. The manufacturing data yesterday was bullish for Eurusd and caused an increase in the price. Consequently, this increase was corrected down to the price of EU prior to any manufacturing data. However, NY session has been bullish for the 2nd day in a row as EU holds steady above our weekly key level. Today I had a very good trading day taking buys at lower prices near what was a 1Hr Zone at the time 1.067. The Level has since turned into a 4Hr Zone as New York has successfully rejected those lower prices.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
USD Buyers Surprised by News Release 🎋 Hold or fold? Manufacturing Data sent Eurusd price soaring 42 Pips in less than 11 minutes as the expected figure missed. Is the current Price sustainable for Eurusd? The Weekly candle dipped down to down Daily Support Level 1.06684 and coinciding with manufacturing data we have rejected our Daily support level. In order for the current Daily candle to close bullish price needs to close above 1.07107. Bullish Argument - If the Daily candle closes where it currently sits, it looks like a Bullish hammer candle. - A Bullish Hammer candle rejecting Daily Support Level 1.06884 - Price has retraced Asian session and London sessions's bearish descent - I am anticipating a steady bullish recovery in EURUSD price since the meeting minutes on May 24 ( For more, please check the post " Ultimate Catalyst : Interest Rates News " ) - The Weekly candle last week closed as a Doji candle, an Indecision candle as bears ran into a wall at our weekly support zone 1.06643 Given all of this, It is very common to see News releases get corrected. I believe this will occur over the next few sessions as we could observe during the May 10th CPI announcement. On this announcement Price initially spiked up with news. This occured only to see Eurusd price corrected as the market digested the news. It took 18 Hours before Eurusd corrected the May CPI news. Price on Eurusd was decreasing to close out last week. This week price had only been decreasing with exception for the New York session manufacturing data news release. I am anticipating Eurusd to range and gather more orders around 1.0688 Daily support before seeing anymore upside.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
More Gas in the Tank? Eurusd 🌬️If we are trading with the trend then it would be wise of us to continue to look for short setups. However, Price has plunged to the downside plenty and it is reasonable to ask when will we see a correction. My thoughts are that we see a dip early in the week. Buyers eventually show up around our weekly level 1.06654 and we continue up for the rest of the week or consolidate after liquidating late shorts. The debt ceiling controversy may be used as an excuse to pump risk assets. It would also provide a nice opportunity for the dollar to pullback. Alot of talks about the dollar being over-extended may see a last and final burst to liquidate any dollar shorts at these level's. After that the dollar may then ease off the highs and pull down for the rest of the week. (Meanwhile EurUsd would go up) A double bottom looks like it may be forming on the 4Hr and so we may an increase on Eurusd sooner rather than later. Anything may happen and so we must follow the processes we have set in place to protect ourselves. Expect nothing from the market and it cannot dissapoint you. There is always another day to trade your setup as there is always another week to execute your strategy. Trading Talk: The way in which I execute my two setups during NY session are as follows. Setup 1: Outline the specific zone you would like to execute this setup. Set your alert(s) Setup 2: Pick your current bullish or bearish bias and write it on the chart. I only allow myself up to 15 Trades / Day But I will not lose more than the Percentage equivalent of 2 Losing trades. Beforehand my risk management strategy was only as good as my skill. But Sometimes to a fault. Now my risk management strategy is as good as my Preparation. And this will encourage only the higher quality setups. Have a good trading week.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Jobs Data 🏗️ / Weekly Level 1.06643 Eurusd Jobs Data was expected to ease over the prior period as the U.S. may have had a smaller amount of job opportunties for it's citizens during the month of May. It turns that the U.S. had more about 160,000 more job openings than was expected. So this is positive for a few reasons - Data was expected to ease over the prior period but we didn't ease and instead the U.S. gained job opportunities during May. - Data was better than expected by a significant margin when compared to previous job openings data releases. This is Optimistic for the U.S. Economy. The impact of the News on price action has initially gone down and dropped from our 4Hr S/R level at 1.07018 Moving Forward I anticipate consolidation or a retracement in price while we hold above 1.06643. If we continue our descent and USD news turns out to be strong enough, our next target is 1.06235. After that, and with NFP data on friday, we may continue to drop to 1.05435. I took a buy at our weekly level 1.0665 when price creased the initial low created during the first 1 minute of news. I have since been stopped out by a small margin before price retraced in my anticipated direction but would take the trade once more given the chance. Weekly Level's are quite strong area's on the chart. Stronger than Daily Level's! They Hold quite frequently as we can observe from the trading earlier in the day. 2 Hours after London open was when we initially tapped into 1.06643 Weekly Level. It coincided with the new 4Hr candle and explains why you can observe no bottom wick on the previous 4Hr candle. Big Players trading on the Higher timeframes are supporting a demand area here. As a scalper I have them to help with my intra-day activities.
by ShrewdCatfx
2
SHORT EURUSD (Monthly Timeframe)EURUSD on the monthly timeframe is bearish and its downtrend channel and heading back to parity or below parity levels. The current month's close will form a bearish engulfing pattern, a retest of the double top neckline, and a failure to close above the resistance (supply zone) at area 1.09-1.10. which confirms its next possible leg down movement continuation to the next support (demand) zone at area 1.03-1.04 and a break of such level, next levels are to the previous low 0.95 and to the new low at the lower monthly downtrend channel at the level 0.90.
Short
by WaelHaz
2
$EURUSD Can Jump #EURUSDTraders and Investors, EURUSD has been falling after reaching one of our long-term targets. Now it is at a junction from which it can make a little jump. The price action is still weak, so we must be watchful and wait for good confirmations. Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade setups, and updates on this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions, and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content of this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
Long
by vikinsa
Sovereign Debt Crisis - Cracks Showing in the Yen?Long position on OANDA:USDJPY Interest rates on US dollars are rising globally, at a very rapid rate. Capital has been flowing towards the United States for the last couple years, as a global flight to security occurs as fear rises in markets during times of turmoil. Because the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the globe, debts backed by US Treasuries are quickly becoming expensive - particularly for sovereigns. Sovereign debt, particularly long-tenor notes and bonds, have demonstrated to be very illiquid in the last decade. Globally, central banks have attempted to combat this issue with lower interest rates and quantitative easing. This theory, however is fundamentally flawed since it does not address the lack of price discovery in these markets. Central banks can support these markets domestically, but without a foreign buyer they hold little value, and the currency will experience inflation relative to other currencies. In this instance, this is the US Dollar. See this chart of the British 10-Year Bond (Gilt) Futures, where there was a panic in the market a few months ago as pension funds holding large quantities of Gilts were rendered insolvent. The same pattern can be observed on a USDGBP chart, as capital fled the nation and its debt lost value (rates rise). The crisis that nations now face, is that they are burning the candle at both ends. Japan has been employing strict interest rate controls, and extraordinary liquidity-providing measures to domestic banks for decades to stimulate inflation. In the past couple months however, they have begun to employ currency controls, to curb the loss of value of the Yen in FX markets. Despite this inflation they have had little success stimulating growth domestically. Negative rates reflect a negative demand for sovereign debt, as if the entity "buying" it must be paid to do so. Rates have also gone negative in Europe, see the financial capital, Germany, has struggled since 2009 to find a market for its debt. US banks are reluctant to lend via repo to European banks for their sovereign entities possess such great risk The Reverse Repo facility (RRP) has become a black hole for capital around the globe. During QE it offered the highest return on cash for money-market funds and other money market participants. As rates rise globally, so too does risk. As markets like Europe are unable to keep up with the rise in rates as is occurring in the United States, so capital will continue to flee these nations under duress and create a feedback loop. The RRP is a zero-risk investment, so offers a safe home for flighty capital looking to liquidate long-term debt. See chart of Yen, inverse Euro and RRP usage The Bank of Japan has become unable to control the market on its 10-year debt security, and it will continue to rise and push against the imaginary "ceiling" imposed on it, until a currency crisis occurs and a crisis in sovereign debt markets may begin to be realised. Capital will flow very quickly towards the United States in this event. Since it is the financial capital of the world still, as it is the reserve currency of most foreign governments, any assets priced in US dollars will grow in value. Particularly equities, this will be a theme in markets over the following years. War in Ukraine will continue to create massive inflationary pressure globally, as capital concentrates around a very expensive and complicated geopolitical conflict. Rates will continue to rise until this is resolved, and sovereign debt will quickly become un-affordable as the price falls due to rate increases. Debt is already concentrating in short-term debt markets, like REPO, FIMA, SOFR and so on. Pension and mutual funds will quickly be rendered insolvent as they are the parties which hold gigantic quantities of these dangerously illiquid bonds. BEWARE of these markets, they are a ticking time bomb and all global currencies have a massive exposure.
Long
by FPS_Denny
1
A New week and Eu continues the descent 💎Eurusd is currently jumping around inside a tight intra-day range. Eurusd appears to be rejecting our 4Hr S/R Zone and maybe EU will turn into another textbook opportunity to sell a resistance zone in a downtrend. We have bearish momentum and a wick to fill on the previous week's bottom wick. The previous week's bottom wick currently stretches 45 pips that we can easily go fill. London Open appeared to want to drop to the downside but the market was not ready. For New York we have returned to the top of the range and the bulls are struggling. The NY Open 1Hr candle attempted to make a move up but ended up leaving a wick and closing back inside our 4hr range between 1.082 4Hr Zone and 1.0806. A tight knit 14 pip range possibly distributing to the downside. Another clue is the 4Hr candle that closed 1Hr ago, failing to close above 1.082 4Hr S/R Zone. The Daily Candle has been bullish but the upside has been limited due to our 4Hr 1.082 Level. (Sellers are protecting this area) The Daily Candle keeps testing buyers as it threatens to flip at our 4Hr Support level 1.0806. This is where the market opened at Asian yesterday and if 1.0806 4hr zone doesn't hold then we will be looking towards a retest of 1.078 1Hr Zone in which we would be filling the previous week's bottom wick with momentum. Momentum that has been carried over from the previous week. Looking for this price 1.078 soon or we may range longer and will have to re-evaluate.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx