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Eurodollar

EurUsd Strong as ever after botched ADP data ⚖️Solid Daily candle closure after not great ADP data. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 3:05 weekly timeframe 4:50 Daily timeframe 8:16 4hr timeframe 11:45 1hr timeframe Not surprised.. Also not surprised to asian session move back to the highs from NY session earlier today. These are signs of bullish strength for EurUsd. We just recieved a solid 4hr candle lose with Asian session. Market structure filled to bullish with NY along with the Daily closure. We still have NFP data but it's in 32 hours. We may observe an increase prior to NFP and that's what I'm looking for on EU. Few key level's we have here 1.0575 Daily level 1.0543 weekly level 1.0527 4hr level 1.05023 4hr level 1.0491 1hr level 1.04608 Daily level
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Euro falls to lowest level all year while dollar risesI wanted to bring to your attention the recent developments in the currency market, specifically the significant weakening of the Euro against the US Dollar. As of today, the Euro has fallen to its weakest level this year, while the Dollar continues to strengthen without any signs of easing. The current situation raises concerns and prompts us to carefully evaluate our trading strategies. The Euro's decline may present an opportunity for those considering a short position on the currency. However, I would like to emphasize the importance of approaching this situation with caution and thorough analysis. Considering the ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical factors, it is crucial to assess the potential risks involved in shorting the Euro. While the Dollar's gains have been consistent, it is essential to remember that market dynamics can change rapidly. Therefore, before making any trading decisions, it is advisable to conduct comprehensive research and seek expert advice. In light of the above, I encourage you to closely monitor the Euro-Dollar exchange rate and keep a vigilant eye on any significant market developments. It is always wise to stay informed and adapt our strategies accordingly. Should you require any further assistance or have any questions regarding this matter, please do not hesitate to comment. We are here to support you and provide guidance throughout your trading journey.
Short
by bryandowningqln
$EUR/USD -Quarterly in SHORTOn the Bigger picture, EUR/USD triggered two TP Levels, awaiting for the lower ones. How much Lower can $EUR/USD go ? It's been a very good Summer shorting Euro throughout Q3/2023 . We also longed the up-rise bounce last year lows at 0.95 $ and ride it all the way by end year (Two Quarters opened position) Do not be trapped by the most recent price action of $EUR/USD. Euro is just gaining a little momentum by bouncing at technical levels, as well fundamentally speaking in relation to TVC:DXY which has been on a rally of 11 Consecutive Weekly Green Candles. (so it may be a time for markets relief, considering that TVC:DXY is over-extended and under lots of resistances points like that of Golden Zone Macro Fib that is currently being broken) (Check the TVC:DXY Idea below) Is it up from here ? Looking to long $EUR/USD after having full confirmations of trends shift. For now, its better to trade not against the trend and continue looking for shorting opportunities on EUR/USD Or you can choose to be on the sidelines awaiting for confirmations on TVC:DXY to start showing weakness on what would be its 12 Weekly Strike !!! *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea.
by Mr_J__fx
Understand Session to Session Behavior🏺EurUsd 1.It's early in the week 2. Alot of volatility already this week for EurUsd 3. Daily candle closed with no bottom wick denoting exhaustion 4. Asian session continuation to the downside here coinciding with daily support level 1.04627 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:47 Weekly timeframe 4:51 Daily timeframe 6:52 15m timeframe 8:04 4hr timeframe 8:52 1hr timeframe We moved down quite a bit today! Took some sells during NY session and jumped on the train to the downside. Is it a surprise that Asian session has continued that descent? We are at almost 2x ATR for EurUsd regarding the volatility today. London Session usually does some fakeout behavior and will likely retrace to gather some liquidity here.. There is always fomo liquidity in the market and my trading system depends on it.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd Change of Character 🔔Hello everyone so off to the races here with another week in the markets. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:59 Weekly timeframe 6:38 Daily timframe 9:10 4hr timeframe 12:08 1hr timeframe 12:50 Bias My Analysis today is derived from the close of the Septmeber Monthyll candle. We observed the September monthly candle pull back up into the close with (2) Bullish Daily candles leading the way. Combine this with the fact that the Weekly candle last week closed above our Weekly/Monthly support level at 1.054. We currently are about 26 pips above our weekly support level and I can visualize price facilitating a move up from within this area. With that said, we have manufacturing in the coming session with the data expected to increase slightly but still contract overall ( which makes me more bullish on Eurusd). If I'm wrong then we will see a move back towards 1.054 Weekly support level and fail to hold it with NY session as a continue momentum on higher timeframes back to 1.05 daily support and psychological level.. What are your thoughts on the coming sessions? Thanks for joining me today
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Monthly Candle pulls back for Closure? 🌛 EurUsdEurusd no mercy for the Monthly candle closure here. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 1:41 Weekly timeframe 3:57 daily timeframe 5:51 4hr timeframe 7:49 1hr timeframe 8:01 what happened during today 13:40 Bias for upcoming session Today we observed a V-Shaped recovery on Eurusd fueled by missed GDP data. We can also attribute the pulback to an over-extended DXY, profit-taking, and Fomo liquidity chasing the market down... Please let me know if you caught this retracement which I called out in my previous analysis about 24 hours ago. With that said, I'm anticpating an increase into the close of the monthly candle. I believe it can continue to pullback and create a larger bottom wick. The current size of the bottom wick on eurusd on the Monthly timeframe is 86 pips. Today price pulled back up and closed a solid bullish candle back above the weekly timeframe support level at 1.054 which was our original bearish shorts target on the week. To end the week, I wouldn't be surprised to see another bullish push after that bullish daily candle close that we observed today. This bullish push could extend to 1.06071 1hr resistance zone. We have clean traffic up to that level .. a 28 pip clean range. inflation data not expected to chang eover the previous data point.. could be catalyst to continue to pullback to the upside but if we are wrong.. it may act as a catalyst to pull back down towards 1.054 weekly support level or 1.053-1.052 area.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
1
EurUsd Dives to the Sea Floor?🌊 🤔Despite missed consumer confidence on Tuesday, Eurusd has been tanking and continuing the higher timeframe momentum. 0:0 Monhtly timeframe 2:56 Weekly timeframe 4:55 Daily timeframe 6:50 4hr timeframe 8:55 1hr timeframe 12:40 Bias We may also observe that the market is pulling down into the close of the monthly candle. The same concept which you may hear me talk about with the weekly candle pulling down or pulling bak into the close of a weekly candle.. just on a larger scale. The Monthly candle here has pulled down 165 pips into the candle close vs on the weekly timeframe we may observe a 40-80 pip move into the candle closure. Now we have seen quite the move down and there were a few traders looking to take longs at the beginning of the week, little early but i think the time is nearing for a possible pullback with london or NY session. This is because we observed quite a large volatile move to the downside. Asian session has pulled up when typically it has been pulling down across the past few days.. foreshadowing possible retracement. Either way, flexibility is one of the best qualities to exercise as a scalper. We will be open- minded and patient with entries and exits when approaching risk. We have reached a psychological number and this coincides Eurusd approaching the lows of the year at 1.08486. Our next tsrgt for shorts is 1.04609 daily level. Our retracement target is 1.05419 or 1.056 4hr resistance level. GDP is anticpated to be good for the USD so this could provide a catlayst for a bear continuation. If it misses , then we may anticpate a retracement. This is the logical approach, but we all know the market isn't always logical but often irrational. If you've read this far, leave a comment and a rocket and I will see you in the next analysis. Cheers.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
4
Momentum in a Bearish market 🪜EurUsdWhen the Market trends down, support zones become resistance zones after candlestick closure confirmations. 0;0 Monthly timeframe 1:15 weekly timeframe 4:15 daily timeframe 9:00 4hr timeframe 11:45 1hr timeframe 14:00 Bias If you are new to the markets, that last sentence is probably a bit confusing. But really all it sums up to is that the market moves down in methodical steps. This may not always be the case however... Similar to a ladder and different from a silde. The market will drop suddenly and slide deeply in a panic similar to the Stock market crash of 2020 with Covid-19. All support level's failed and liquidity was swept through due to a change in fundamentals. The forex market has much more volume and therefore will not slide as easily vs the stock market which runs on lower liquidity. We are talking about medium-long term slides across days and weeks or even months. In the short term however, fundamental releases can cause the FX market to slide 10's of pips in a matter of seconds. Being inclined towards a scalping style, it is especially important to be aware of these short term slides which could wipeout a sizable portion of a trading account. Price action to begin the week: Weekly level 1.0663 is especially relevant and may facilitate a selloff back to the lows 1.0613. If we do push higher, we may tap into 1.0691 daily resistance level before seeing more selling pressure. 1.054 is the weekly bearish target for this week and our first stop will be 1.0576 daily level where we may observe some profit taking. Bullish targets on the week include 1.075 daily resistace zone. For this scenario, would prefer a daily closure above 1.0691 daily level.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2
EUR/USD: Euro Trims Losses Against US Dollar Post-Fed EventEuro Trims Losses Against US Dollar Post-Fed Event In the aftermath of the recent Federal Reserve (Fed) event, the Euro (EUR) found itself on a backfoot against the US Dollar (USD), but it managed to regain some ground. Here's a look at the key events and dynamics shaping the EUR/USD currency pair's movement. Euro in Decline Post-Fed: The Euro had been facing downward pressure against the US Dollar as the market digested the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent actions. Stocks in Europe opened Thursday's trading session in the red, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the market. EUR/USD Rebounds: Despite an early drop to fresh multi-month lows, the Euro managed to stage a modest rebound against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair climbed back above the 1.0650 level during the European trading session on Thursday. US Dollar Strength Persists: The US Dollar continued to demonstrate strength, with the USD Index (DXY) reaching new highs. The index approached a six-month high near 105.70, just a few pips away from the year-to-date peak observed on March 8, which was around 105.90. Fed's Hawkish Stance: The rebound in the EUR/USD pair coincided with some corrective movements in the short end of the US yield curve, while the belly and long end saw modest gains. This shift in bond yields may have contributed to the Euro's rebound. Following the Fed's meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that there is still a considerable path to cover in reaching the target inflation rate of 2%. The Fed decided to maintain current interest rates, but it remains prepared to raise rates when it deems appropriate. Key Data and Events Ahead: In the economic calendar for the eurozone, the preliminary reading of Consumer Confidence, tracked by the European Commission, is scheduled for release. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to deliver a speech, which could provide insights into the central bank's perspective. In the United States, the focus will be on the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the CB Leading Economic Index, and Existing Home Sales. These data points will provide further context for the economic situation in the US. In summary, the Euro faced early losses against the US Dollar but managed to regain some ground in European trading. The USD's strength persists, with the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance. Key economic data and speeches by central bank officials will be closely monitored for further market direction. Our preference Short positions below 1.072 with targets at 1.0610 & 1.0590 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
Euro Still Drops After ECB's Record-High Interest Hike I must admit that the current state of affairs in the currency market has left me feeling rather disheartened. It is with a heavy heart that I share with you the recent news regarding the euro's ongoing decline, even in the face of the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise interest rates to unprecedented levels. In a surprising turn of events, the euro has failed to find its footing, despite the ECB's efforts to bolster its value. The announcement of the highest interest rates on record was anticipated to provide a much-needed boost to the struggling currency. However, it appears that the market sentiment has not aligned with our expectations, leaving us in a state of perplexity and disappointment. As traders, we often rely on historical data, economic indicators, and expert opinions to guide our investment decisions. However, the current situation reminds us that the market can be unpredictable and subject to various external factors. While the ECB's decision was intended to instill confidence in the euro, it seems that other prevailing circumstances are exerting a stronger influence on its downward trajectory. In light of these developments, I would like to suggest considering a short position on the euro. Although it is disheartening to witness the currency's decline, it is crucial for us to adapt to market conditions and seize opportunities that arise from such situations. By taking a short position, we can potentially benefit from the euro's continued depreciation and mitigate potential losses. I understand that this suggestion may not align with our initial expectations or desires, but as traders, we must remain adaptable and open to alternative strategies. As the saying goes, "the market is always right," and it is our responsibility to adjust our positions accordingly. Please feel free to comment below if you would like to discuss this further or explore other potential trading opportunities. I value your expertise and would appreciate your input on the matter. www.wsj.com
TVC:EXYShort
by bryandowningqln
Make the opponent flinch, and you've already won - Musashi 📼 The market has been relentless to the downside over the last 2-3 months. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:00 Weekly timeframe 5:35 Daily timeframe 8:45 4hr timeframe 12:35 let's zoom out a bit 12:30 1hr timeframe 15:15 Bias Fueled by Inflation data and technical confirmations, the market has continued is descent time & again. Tuesday Wednesday and thursday have closed bearish. We have established momentum in the market and I believe it is likely that we contiue on this path to end the week. The weekly can may continue to pull to the downside as it is currently bearish and has a 77 pips top wick. The thursday daily candle closed bearish and we have a wick to go fill with momentum. The market set itself up early in the week as it was bullish on monday and observed bullish impulses on tuesday and wednesday. Thursday saw a continuation of the bear momentum established on wednesday and I believe we may also see a continuatiion on Friday. It is easier trading with the trend.. and they do say .. the trend is your friend. With that said, we must remain flexible when trading the markets and our success across time realy depends on our ability to adapt to the changing market conditions.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
A Bearish squeeze 🐻 unfolding or too hopeful? ❌EurUsd Buyers in La la land or are we onto something here? 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:10 Weekly tiemframe 5:26 daily timeframe 7:34 4hr timeframe 10:25 Let's talk interest rates 12:30 1hr timeframe At times the market has coincided it's bottom or top with a News release. Today we have the September Interest Rates release as our fundamental catalyst for a potential bearish squeeze. We have 9 Bearish candles in a row. I was wrong last week about EurUsd longs so maybe I'm at fault here and this scenario is a long shot, no pun intended. We saw Profit taking on Fridaylast week and the market inched to the upside. On Monday we saw a clean range followed by a breakout to the upside on the intra-day timeframes during NY session. Today we observed a breakout to the upside once again with London Session. When NY session came around , price said " Not Yet" as we have Interest rates coming up and it was not the right time. We just ranged today prior to interest rates as one could expect. What I'm looking for is a move prior to news or a wick with news between 1.064 daily support level and 1.066 weekly support level preceding an increase back to 1.075 Daily resistance Zoneish. Not anticipating a rate hike or a rate cut as things will likely remain unchanged as we've already observed the fastest rate hike ever.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Some retracing in store? 🏪 EurusdAfter monstrous gains last week from EU bears, is the time up ? 🕓 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:21 Weekly timeframe 5:28 Daily timeframe 7:00 4hr timeframe 10:27 1hr timeframe There are a few scenarios that we can observe here for Eurusd this week . 1. Eurusd Pulls up prior to Interest rates ( Stays above 1.065 Daily support zone) and continues to retrace with Interest rates remaining the same or cut 25 points 2. Eurusd Pullback early in the week( 1.0706 & 1.0754) as we are currently observing which precedes a continuation to the downside (1.0608 & 1.055) with Interest rates as the catalyst 3. Eurusd rate increase and EURUSD bearish Continuation towards 1.055 Monthly/weekly support level So price has continued to retrace EUR rate increase, PPI, and retail sales data from last thursday. Consumer sentiment on Friday was not great for USD and price retraced in favor of EUR as well. It's a sort of change of character as sellers ( USD Buyers) do not appear to be in control. Sometimes when you observe a short or medium term top or bottom formulate in the market, it begins with a blowoff push in the direction of the trend. This blowoff is great for those trading with the trend, but if those traders don't Take Profit they go into denial as price retraces and retraces against them. This move on thursday 9/14 is a 100 pips blowoff that may act as our catalyst for a short-medium term reversal in the market.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
1
EUR/USD -14/9/2023-• All technical indicators are pointing to a bearish picture for the Euro • First, the price broke below an ascending channel since January • Second, the series of higher lows is being questioned as we are trading at the previous swing low at 1.0630 and bulls really need to defend that level to gain traction • Third, the price is trading below the 200 MA for more than a week without even testing that level back • The 2021-2022 1.5 year long down trend was followed by almost a yearly rally which stopped very close to the 61.8% level of that decline, which questions whether the yearly rally that we have seen recently is a major bullish trend or just a correction for the previous major bearish trend • The level 1.0630 is critical in this scenario and if bears successfully break below it, next support will be 1.05 followed by 1.0220 • Today's dovish ECB statement and Lagarde speech supports the bearish picture as the Euro area growth is slowing and forecasts for the coming months and year remain tilted to the downside
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Anticipating the next Move 🚤 EurusdAnticipate the next move beginning with a Top-Down Analysis followed by looking through the lens of price action. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 1:10 Weekly timeframe 2:35 Daily timeframe 6:36 4hr timeframe 8:30 1hr timeframe 11:20 upcoming news We have alot of rejections at 1.07 Weekly support level beginning from last tuesday. This weekly support level is also a Monthly support level. The Daily timeframe flipped to bullish market strucutre on Monday and still maintains that stance. Though, one could argue that we are simply ranging now. We have higher lows and Higher highs on the 1hr/4hr timeframes. CPI inflation data today pulled price back down to retest the weekly support level once more at 1.07. To be exact it touched into 1.071 but I still count that. Yesterday and especially today price respected what was our previous resistance zone 1.0727 but has now turned into a daily support zone. CPI increased for the second consecutive month and we are moving away from the Fed's target of 2%. That is good for the USD and the higher timeframe momentum favors USD. Given this, we are at a key level on the monthly and weekly timeframes. Volatility has decreased ever since we tapped into the key level's. Also, these fundamental releases act as a short term reversal for the market.. another confluence. Really in trading it's about combining multiple confluences to increase the probabilities for a trade idea.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Seen this Story before ... 🔖Following price action versus what you think price action will do are two completely different concepts. 0:0 Monthy timeframe 0;47 Weekly timeframe 1:52 Daily timeframe 3:52 4hr timeframe 5:46 1hr timeframe 6;40 Bias for upcoming Understanding these concepts to their core has cost me. I have benefited though from reflecting on the outcomes of these two concepts. Price action will often times clue you on what will happen next. To listen to the price will take time and because you will be inclined to impose your beliefs on the market and invest your energy into solving, well, the wrong problems. Observing where candles close and understanding the nature of volume surrounding 1hr and 4hr candle closures is very important. These concepts make up the core of intra-day trading in the forex market. With that said, I am anticipating a bit of a retrace towards our previous daily resistance zone that may facilitate more longs. Our previous daily resistance was 1.0726 and it can now be characterized as Daily support since market structure flipped on the daily timeframe to bullish.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
When the Price Action speaks, Listen! 🔉😼Price reacted off of 1.07 Weekly support level for 2 days before punching through it with New York session Open today boosted by positive USD unemployment data. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 2:21 Weekly timeframe 5:29 Daily timeframe 9:25 4hr timeframe 11:06 1hr timeframe Price printed a Daily bearish candle today and tapped into Extreme Daily Lows at 1.0688 Daily support zone. It is extreme daily support zone because price bounced 590 Pips off this area last time price was here. The Daily bearish candle today closed above the Extreme Daily lows. Yes the weekly candle is bearish at the moment, but I would not be surprised to see the Weekly candle pullback, and create a larger bottom wick to end the week. Calling the low has a good Risk/Reward and some people are good at spotting mean reversion trades. Be flexible because if the market continues to trend lower, we want to capitalize on that momentum. Interestingly enough, I'm looking forward to this mean reversion trade because of the News catalyst Unemployment Data. News releases can also provide the catalyst for a short term bottom and top in the markets. A good example of this was on June 27th earlier this year. After the news, a short term top was formed and price pulled back 100 pips. Anticipating something similar here.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
EURUSD... Bearish-BATWe have XABC, and almost D. Lets set a limit order. SL: 15 pips. TP: 15, 30, 45, 60 pips. What is the Bat harmonic pattern? The pattern is a 5-point retracement structure that was discovered in 2001 by Scott Carney. It has particular Fibonacci measurements for every point within its structure. It is necessary to note that D is not a point, but rather a zone in which price is probably going to reverse. This zone is known as the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). The B point retracement of the primary XA leg has to be lower than a 0.618, preferably a 0.50 or 0.382. The PRZ is made up of 3 converging harmonic levels: 0.886 retracement of the primary XA leg Extended AB=CD chart pattern, mostly 1.27 AB=CD Minimum BC projection is 1.618 Info by patternswizard Wait until 2 hours. Then, if it reaches the price, wait another 5 hours for closing. See you soon. JB.-
Short
by JBPip