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Eurodollar

EUR/USD -17/4/2023-• Mixed picture on the weekly EUR/USD chart • We have bullish and bearish signs • Bullish signs: Uptrend line still intact despite recent drop • Still within weekly corrective levels. Prior rally from 0.95 to 1.10 retraced to almost 38.2% • Descending trend line from May 21 high has been successfully broken in Dec 22 • However, latest leg up from 1.05 to 1.10 didn't experience any correction yet, so last 2 days drops could be potential weekly corrections that might bottom anywhere between 1.0860 and 1.0730 (38.2% and 61.8% respectively) • On the other side, the bearish signs are: The latest leg up failed to make a new high. Instead, it made a double top and bulls were unable to sustain and confirm the breakout. • A potential double top pattern may be building, with neckline at around 1.050 • A break of 1.050 with several successful daily closes below it, will turn the odds in favor of the bears and we might see the parity level re-tested again
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EUR/USD -15/4/2023-Here's a short term analysis on the pair • Labelled the March-April 3 waves of rally as 1,2 and 3 respectively I am going to discuss the market's behavior and yesterday's sudden fall despite bad figures for the U.S • Prices never keep going in one direction as a straight line. They rather retrace because of traders taking profit and Stop Losses being hit etc.. And whenever there is a correction, long term traders rather wait for better prices to re-enter again. This is how trends are formed, reflected by higher highs higher lows in an uptrend and vice versa for the downtrend. • Wave 1: Euro rallied from 1.0520 to 1.0920, a massive 400 pip move which normally is followed by a retracement. Unsurprisingly, that is what happened next; market retraced back to the 50% Fibonacci level. • Wave 2: Rally from 1.07 to 1.0970, almost a 300 pip move was also followed by a correction to the 50% level. • And now we are in the 3rd wave: Rally from 1.0830 to 1.1070, a 200+ pip move. Yesterday was the first red candle this week following a 3 day sharp rally. Prices yesterday dropped to the 38.2% Fibonacci level and went back up again to close above it. What is next? • If the same scenario were to repeat itself, we might see a sharper decline to the 50% level at 1.0950 before making a new high. Why? Because in my personal opinion, the broader trend is up and FED-ECB policy are converging more and more. Plus, interest rates differential is tightening which will favor the Euro. The US Dollar has been rallying for almost 2 years, benefiting from the gap in policies between the ECB and the FED. Since that factor is changing, I think the bull cycle for the Dollar has ended, for now.
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
2
📰 Bloody Momentum after the NFP Fakeout @ 1.0918We didn't do much waiting around to begin the week. We dropped a large sum and closed quite the large engulfing candle on the 4Hr Timeframe. Yes, In this instance I am aware that we have arrived at a Daily zone 1.08445. However We spent a good chunk of time collecting orders around 1.093. Jumping above and back below. We had NFP data released recently and now we are trading the momentum move that comes along with it. Momentum is a fierce blade, sharp enough to pierce the torso of a mammoth. But it's also possible that just as we did last week, price dropped a ball to begin the week. Then pulled it's pants up and soared upwards. Positive sentiment in stock market etc. The Near term prices I like are listed as 1.08445. If we bounce hard off daily level we are headed back to weekly level at 1.0868. That would be where I would give up bearish bias 1.0868. More Analysis: Last week I was looking for a retest of 1.0868 but we got it this week and actually went to do a deeper pullback to 1.083 It looks like. A lag but not too much of a lag for this short term analysis. I can be profitable with a lag because just wait until the next sessions and manage risk tight to protect profits when it is necessary.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx