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Eurodollar

New Week and can bears maintain? 🎑EurusdHi Welcome back traders 0:0 Alot of Fundamental news this week 1:01 Weekly Timeframe and Interest rates idea 4:09 Daily timeframe 7:17 Sells from 1.12318 Daily resistance zone last week 7:37 4hr Timeframe The previous weekly candle closed bearish with a larger top wick. The bottom wick printed only 15 pips and this may cause a concern for exhaustion. I'm anticipating a further pullback on eurusd as we head into interest rates for the dollar on wednesday. We technically still have bullish momentum and market strucutre on higher timeframes for Eurusd. I'm expecting Interest rates to be a catalyst for.. Eurusd upside momentum. In the meantime price may consolidate/range and even pullback a bit closer to our 1.1056 Daily Support zone.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Using Rationale to Ride news Volatility 🎢 +.5% 3rd Week JulyHello Traders! 0:0 Introduction/Weekly Fav Prices 1:25 Daily TF breakdown 5:24 1Hr Chart Fundamental news combined with Technicals 13:25 Quick 4hr TF details 14:00 Continued 1Hr Chart 18:25 trade 1 short 19:35 trade 2 short with unemployment news Welcome back to another video analysis. In this analysis, I detail how we could've used rationale to decipher the markets next moves and be a few steps ahead. Using rationale to breakdown the numbers of fundamental news releases and combining this with our favorite prices/key levels on the chart, we were able to create a great RR trade on Thursday. We could have jumped on the train sooner and there is always something to learn in the markets. Hope you enjoyed! Please leave a rocket or a comment if you liked this video analysis. See you in the next video!
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Review of Eurusd's Price Behavior, Fav Prices, & Looking ForwardIn this Multi-Timeframe Analysis Video ⬇️ 0:0 Monthly timeframe 1:08 Weekly timeframe 2:15 Daily timeframe 4:25 Bias for next trading day 4:46 4hr timeframe 7:08 1Hr timeframe I go through multiple timeframes breaking down what's occurred on EurUsd over the past day and what I'm looking for moving forward to unemployment claims tomorrow and ultimately Interest rates next week. I'm suspecting that we may continue to pullback bearish in favor of the USD or at best range on Eurusd as 4hr bear market structure is develpoing and the daily candle just closed below the previous 3 Daily lows. I am enjoying these videos and thus far it is being well received by the community.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Review of the July Breakout 📨 / EurusdIf time permits you, I have a longer video analysis here of the past Breakout on Eurusd. weekly tiemframe 1:45 Daily Timeframe 4:16 4hr timeframe 7:02 1hr timeframe & news events 9:47 In this Video I breakdown the July Breakout for Eurusd that has extended from 1.09 to 1.127. A 370 Pip move in approximately 1.5 weeks. Our key fundamental cpi release was a major catalyst for us to breakout of the range we've been in Since January of this year. The CPI was views as a risk on news release and the markets have responded in an optimistic way as the dollar is being sold off for more risk on assets like the Euro. We have momentum on the weekly and monthly timeframe here as so I'm bullish here. We do have interest rates next week and it is pssible we may continue to consolidate or even pullback just a bit prior to a Bullish Eurusd interest rates push towards 1.146 weekly resistance zone. We do have a few daily resistance zones to be aware of in the short term such as 1.137, 1.1324, and the current daily zone that we are rejected 1.1272. We rejected this zone with london price action and retail sales data earlier today. The Daily candle closed bearish with a large top wick. I'm not completely sold on taking sells though, no pun intended.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
4
EUR/USD pair stalled going into EU inflation dataAfter surging close to 4% since early July off the back of a weakening USD, the EUR/USD pair has stabilised around $1.123. With very little volatility seen this week in the pair, eyes now turn to the euro, as the European inflation data is set to be released tonight. Analysts are predicting a continued downward trend in inflation, with a Year-on-Year forecast of 5.50%, which is below May’s figure of 6.1%. If the inflation data comes in above forecasts, we may see a further increase in the EUR as investors move towards the potentially higher yields. On the technical front, the tightening of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is something to watch. The lack of movement in the EUR/USD pair throughout this week has led to exceptionally tight Bollinger Bands, with levels not observed on this timeframe since 2021. When Bollinger Bands contract significantly, it typically signifies a period of low volatility and suggests that a breakout or significant price movement may be on the horizon. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in overbought territory on multiple timeframes, including the daily. This might suggest there is room for a cool-off before a further continuation higher. However, with the European inflation data due tonight, the fundamental data might cancel out any technical signals.
Short
by Ryanboyd
Eurusd Pulls up to end the week 📺The Weekly candle has flipped bullish with NFP data as I outlined as a possible scenario in yesterday's publishing and appears to be now headed towards 1.096 Daily resistance zone( Also the other side of the daily range). We are currently above 1.091 daily resistance zone and closed at this level with the 4hr candle. The 4hr candle closed quite strongly bullish. We have done a retest at our previous 4h resistance zone(1.09) which has just acted as a support level 40 minutes ago. We are seeing a bullish push to end off the week here and I think it may continue towards 1.0936 and 1.096 Daily resistance zone. We are consistently holing above 1.091 daily resistance zone and the 4hr close has given us confirmation that we may continue up. We have now gotten 2 1hr candles and 1 4hr candle close above 1.091 daily resistance zone. It may act as a support now after we have recieved candle closure confirmation on the 1hr/4hr timeframes. I was originally looking for sell positions on Eurusd with NFP. Instead we saw that —> 1) I Identified that NFP data was expected to decrease overall from the prior period ( Not a positive for USD) 2) The data was worse than what was forecasted by analysts' ( Not good for USD) 3) Price printed a strong daily candle closure back inside our daily timeframe range with yesterday's daily candle. Our daily timeframe range being between 1.085-6 Daily Support and 1.096 Daily Resistance 1 Trade today. Buy Stops with NFP Explanation : So price created a Daily resistance zone on Monday. On Tuesday it respected the daily resistance zone and moved down accordingly. I placed my buy stop position above this high of Tuesday's price. One position closed for +8 Pips, Other position closed for +9.3 Pips 💰. My target was the next 1hr resistance zone as we noted in yesterday's publishing at 1.0936. I secured partial positions and extend my Take Profit to 8-10 Pips during news trading and Lowered my position size accordingly. Data
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Thoughts on Eurusd Prior to July NFP!📢Another video reflecting on what's occurred in the last 24 hours, our current key level's, and thoughts prior to July NFP data. In the previous publishing I talked about how we should anticipate a pullback from the lows of structure. Price did indeed pullback for 1.08370 4hr support zone and did so throughout london all the way back to our key 1.09 4hr resistance level. With New york session open ( which was accompanied by ADP and Unemployemnt cliams data) price did a continuation of our previous downtrend on the week. I outlined yesterday that the market often uses Red folder news releases as a catalyst for a continuation of momentum. Throughout the week it's easy to identify that we've had bearish pressure and no wonder this is what we observed. It appears though that players took profit and price once again pulled back up from the lows of strucutre after we saw a continuation occur with news. What a volatile day it was today with plenty of opportunity. Expected nothing less of another Thursday in the markets. I did not participate since I've already reached my goal on the week but it is quite fun to observe from the sidelines. What to look for : If price pulls up towards 1.09 and 1.091 daily resistance level, observe how candle's close around there. This may clue us on what may occur with NFP. As the weekly candle pulls back up on thursday and once again back into our daily range, I can see a potential increase for Friday's candle to end the week. Price looks like it's squeezing on the Daily timeframe and we may be awaiting an increase back to 1.096 daily resistance and 1.1024 in the coming day and moving into next week. If price pulls down and then back up prior to nfp data , I may be looking to set a sell stop with NFP data.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
EUR/USD -6/7/2023-• Blurry technical picture for the Euro currency and the trend is turning into neutral • Bullish ascending trend line since October 2022 intact, supporting the price • We have a potential short term descending triangle, a bearish formation usually • If the sellers manage to break below the triangle, the pair might be facing a 150-200 pips move lower according to the triangle breakout projection method • There is a strong area of resistance between 1.10 and 1.11 and the bullish trend won't gain momentum unless the bulls manage to break above it • To the downside, supports level align at 1.08-1.0820 (ascending trend line and triangle support) followed by 1.064 (previous swing low) and 1.05 • Unless we see a very bad or very good NFP report, I suspect we are going to stay in a trading range between 1.08 and 1.10-1.11
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Thursday Daily Candle Incoming 🤯--> Continuation ( 6 minutes video 😎 ) As We approach the end of the week, We may observe alot of momentum! My mentors always told me that the market is setting up early in the week. The avalanche later in the week will provide plenty of opportunity for the disciplined trader to implement a trading system. Price was at 1.08892 during our last publishing 24 hours ago. Price consolidated during Asian and London Sessions before gaining enough liquidity to see a breakout to the downside. Price is currently headed towards 1.08384 where we may see a bounce as we head into london session. If not then price is headed towards 1.081 4hr support zone as our next bearish target. Price has confirmed a breakout to the downside and I'm anticipating a pullback before my sells. If not then I anticpate a pullback with our 4 news releases tomorrow durng new york session. We could see all three sessions be bearish and it s thursday so I wouldn't be surprises. Must keep this in mind and plan for every scenario. I've outlined that good pullback prices look to me to be arouns 1.08628-1.0875 I've already met my weekly goal of 2% and I am quite a happy camper. 2 Weeks ago I recall I was up about 2.5% (.5% more than my goal) and I trade on a friday where I proceeded to give back 1/3 of my profits on the week. What a sour taste it left in my mouth to end off the week! Don't want to do that again so I will be publishing ideas and content for my channels to end off the week. If you enjoyed the Video Analysis, please let me know by leaving a Rocket or comment! -- ShrewdCatFx
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
4
Eurusd Multi-timeframe Analysis 1W -> 1Hr ( Video 📹) Hello traders, Welcome to this free Multi-timeframe analysis. Eurusd is the only market I trade and I thought that maybe I can bring more value with this educational video analysis. Eurusd has low volume coming out of the bank holiday as expected. Do not blink though because we have a full plate of fundmanental news to end off the week with fed meeting minutes being released during late NY session tomorrow. With the Lack off bottom wick we can observe on the previous Daily candle I see another increase on Eurusd towards the top of the daily range (1.096) as long as we can stay above 1.086 Daily support level. If I'm going to be honest, zones are looking a bit messy to the upside when we get around 1.092. With have a very nice 36 pips range to fill to the downside to 1.08382 4hr support zone if our Daily support doesn't hold. We must keep in mind news can take price anywhere despite the messiness and cluster of our zones. So anything can happen and we must be preprared for both scenarios. This was my previous publishing of Eurusd prior to PMI data release on Monday. (One of the scenario's pointed us back towards 1.08761 1hr Zone) Current price 1.0884
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
SOFR: Farewell to LIBORCME: SOFR ( CME:SR31! ) On June 30th, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler posted a 3-minute short video on Twitter. In this educational piece titled RIP LIBOR, he explains what the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is, and why its passing away is actually a good thing for consumers. As CFTC Chairman in 2009-2014 and SEC Chairman since 2021, Mr. Gensler oversaw the investigation of the 2012 LIBOR scandal and its replacement by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in 2021 as the benchmark interest rate for US dollar. Eurodollar and LIBOR Offshore Dollar, the US currency deposited in banks outside of the United States, is commonly known as Eurodollar. Traditionally, offshore dollars were traded mainly among European banks. The name sticks to these days and applies to funds in non-European banks as well. A key advantage of trading Eurodollar is the fact that it is subject to fewer regulations by the Fed, being outside of the US jurisdiction. London is the largest trading hub for Eurodollar. The London Interbank Offered Rate came into being in the 1970s as a reference interest rate in the Eurodollar markets. By 1986, the British Bankers' Association (BBA) began publishing the US Dollar LIBOR daily. The BBA Libor was calculated based on interest rates reported by 17 member banks who together represented the bulk of Eurodollar transactions. Libor has been widely used as a reference rate for many financial instruments, including: • Forward rate agreements • Interest rate futures, e.g., CME Eurodollar futures • Interest rate swaps and swaptions • Interest rate options, Interest rate cap and floor • Floating rate notes and Floating rate certificates of deposit • Syndicated loans • Variable rate mortgages and Term loans • Range accrual notes and Step-up callable notes • Target redemption notes and Hybrid perpetual notes • Collateralized mortgage obligations and Collateralized debt obligations How important was Libor? It is a reference rate in the documentation by private trade association International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), which sets global market standard for OTC derivative transactions. In 2008, 60% of prime adjustable-rate mortgages and nearly all subprime mortgages were indexed to the USD Libor in the US. Furthermore, American cities borrowed 75% of their money through financial products that were linked to the Libor. Libor has been the indispensable global benchmark for pricing everything from credit card debt to mortgages, auto loans, corporate loans, and complex derivatives. CME Eurodollar Futures In 1981, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched Eurodollar futures, the first ever cash-settled futures contract. It quickly became the most liquid contract by CME. At its peak, over 1,500 traders and clerks worked at the Eurodollar pit on CME trading floor. Not to be confused with the Euro currency, Eurodollar futures contracts are derivatives on the interest rate paid on a notional or "face value" of $1,000,000 time deposit at a bank outside of the United. It uses the 3-month USD Libor rate as its settlement index. The late Fred D. Arditti, CME economist, is credited as the brain behind Eurodollar futures. Eurodollar futures are priced as a Money Market instrument. The CME IMM index is used to convert a coupon-bearing instrument such as bank deposit, into a discounted instrument that does not make regular interest payments. For instance, a futures price of 95.00 implies an interest rate of 100.00 - 95.00, or 5%. The settlement price of a Eurodollar futures contract is defined to be 100.00 minus the official BBA fixing of 3-month Libor on the day the contract is settled. The 2012 LIBOR Scandal The LIBOR Scandal was a highly publicized scheme in which bankers at major financial institutions colluded with each other to manipulate the Libor rate. As the scandal came to light in 2012, investigators found that the banks had been submitting false information about their borrowing costs to manipulate the Libor rate. This allowed the banks to profit from trades based on the artificially low or high rates. A dozen big banks were implicated in the scandal. It led to lawsuits and regulatory actions. After the rate-fixing scandal, LIBOR's validity as a credible benchmark was over. As a result, regulators decided that Libor would be phased out and replaced. If you want to learn more about the LIBOR scandal, feel free to check out the 2017 bestseller by David Enrich: “The Spider Network: The Wild Story of a Math Genius, a Gang of Backstabbing Bankers, and One of the Greatest Scams in Financial History”. What is the SOFR In 2017, the Federal Reserve assembled the Alternative Reference Rate Committee to select a Libor replacement. The committee chose the Secured Overnight Financing Rate as the new benchmark for dollar-denominated contracts. The daily SOFR is based on transactions in the Treasury repurchase market, where firms offer overnight or short-term loans to banks collateralized by their bond assets ,similar to pawn shops. Unlike LIBOR, there’s extensive trading in the Treasury repo market, estimated at $4.8 trillion in June 2023. This theoretically makes it a more accurate indicator of borrowing costs. Moreover, SOFR is based on data from observable transactions rather than on estimated borrowing rates, as was the case with LIBOR. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York began publishing the SOFR in April 2018. By 2021, SOFR has replaced most of the LIBOR-linked contracts. The LIBOR committee officially folded up on June 30, 2023. Chairman Gensler apparently chose this day to post his RIP LIBOR video to mark the end of an era. The difference between Fed Funds Rate and SOFR Fed Funds Rate is set by the Fed’s FOMC meeting, and SOFR is published by the NY Fed. However, they are very different. • Fed Funds Rate is considered a risk-free interest rate, and only member banks have access to this ultra-low rate through the Fed’s discount window. • SOFR is a commercial interest rate where banks charge each other. The NY Fed publishes the rate based on transactions in the US Treasury repurchase market. SOFR is similar to LIBOR because they are both commercial interest rate benchmarks. On the other hand, Fed Funds Rate is a policy rate set by the US central bank. CME SOFR Futures and Options CME Group launched the 3-month SOFR futures and options contracts in May 2018. The contracts were based on the SOFR Index, published daily by the New York Fed. SOFR futures contracts are notional at $2,500 x contract-grade International Monetary Market (IMM) Index, where the IMM Index = 100 minus SOFR. At a 5.215 IMM, for example, each contract has a notional value of $13,037.50. CME requires a $550 margin per contract. An interest rate move by a minimum tick of 0.25 basis point would result in a gain or loss of $6.25. At the beginning, SOFR contracts traded side-by-side with the Eurodollar contracts. By 2021, Eurodollar liquidity has transitioned to SOFR contracts. By April 2023, All Eurodollar contracts were delisted, and the transition was completed. For all intended purposes, you could think of the SOFR futures as the same as the legacy Eurodollar contracts, with the only notable exception being the settlement index switched from LIBOR to SOFR. On June 30th, the daily trading volume and Open Interest of SOFR contracts were 4,443,245 and 9,310,433 contracts, respectively. On the same date, CME Group total volume and OI were 23,769,103 and 104,221,083, respectively. On the latest trade day, SOFR accounts for 18.7% of CME Group’s trade volume and 8.9% of its total open interest. Indeed, SOFR has successfully replaced Eurodollar as new No. 1 contract at CME and is arguably the most liquid derivatives contract in the world. Where We Are at the SOFR Market On June 30th, the JUN SOFR contract (SR3M3) expired and settled at 94.785. This translates to the JUN SOFR rate of 5.215 (100-94.785). SEP 2023 (SR3U3) is now the new lead contract. It settled at 94.595 and implied a forward SOFR rate at 5.405 (100-94.595). This shows that the futures market expects a rate increase in the next Fed meeting. Like Eurodollar futures, rising futures price will confer to declining SOFR rate, as rate is equal to 100 minus futures price. Similarly, a decline in futures price equates to a rising SOFR rate. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:SR31!Education
by JimHuangChicago
9
[ PMI ] Red Folder News Scenario's 🔥/ Eurusd For PMI data I'm favoring a continued push up throughout NY Session. If this does not happen then i anticipate the volatility to create the High of the day then slowly faded off the highs back to support at 1.08743. It is Monday and the market is setting up for the rest of the week so beware of that. On My last publishing I detail a potential fakeout on the Daily timeframe after the Friday candle Closed back inside the range last week above 1.0892 which is now our weekly support level. I'm looking for price to return to 1.096 daily resistance this week with the fakeout market structure. The Daily candle was bearish all day today and has only just recently flipped back bullish as we coincide with PMI data in 7 minutes. I took a buy and just TP with majoirty of my position., holding on to some during news with SL at B.E. Update : Price shot into profit and my runner position I took Profit at +25 Pips
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Fake-Breakout coming out of last week ↗️ 🌞PCE news last Friday took price back inside the range between 1.08919 Weekly Support level and 1.09859 Daily Resistance Level. The Friday daily candle retraced nearly the whole Thursday candle that contained GDP and unemployment claims data. I'm looking for this price behavior to continue into the early trading of this new week. The Idea is that we should have continued down last friday towards 1.07821 Daily S/R Zone. We didn't and instead we Eurusd has spring itself back in the range. A Fake breakout or Fakeout. I can see us returning to the top of the range basically. The Monthly candle closed Bullish for June. Looking for the same during July with the first target for July being 1.11. The second target being 1.11853. Price has been consolidating so far this year on eurusd. However, the market structure is consolidating upwards. The 3 month candle jsut closed a 3rd consecutive bullish candle. Why not more bullish?
Long
by ShrewdCatfx