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Eurodollar

Eurusd ; more downside squeeze? 💀The Monthly candle has been pulling back from monthly resistance at 1.10255 since intitially tapping into it last Thursday. The Weekly candle is bearish and is rejecting weekly resistance zone 1.094. The Daily timeframe has confirmed a bearish breakout to the downside since it recently closed below Daily support level 1.0891. This Daily support level has now tunred into a Daily S/R Zone and may act as a resistance area for more downside potential. As stated on Tuesday's publishing " Momentum from Last week , Eurusd whats cooking? " I mentioned this statement --> "Downside target for week is 1.081 4Hr Support zone" . This would be 51 pip drop from the current daily candle and similar to the 49 pips drop that we saw today with GDP and unemployment claims data. Tomorrow we have Core PCE data. Now A few things could happen. 1) We move up prior to news then drop with news 2) We move down to our weekly target 1.081 before news and then shoot up with news 3) We consolidate, then increase back into the Daily range between 1.0891 Support and 1.096 Resistance with bad USD PCE data tomorrow. ** Also we must be aware that the monhtly candle is coming to a close. This could cause some very irrational volatility. It's the end of the week as well. It could be a freaky friday. I'm lowering size and wider SL. I may not even trade we'll see.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Momentum from last week ↘️ // Eurusd what's cooking? 👨‍🍳We have a fair share of news events this week to shake things up. These news events will be a catlayst for a coniuation of momentum or the cause for a reversal in the short term here. Now the Monthly candle is closing at the end of this week and we must keep in mind that it is closing bullish. I don't anticipate this weekly candle to drop 222 pips but it's not impossible. The Weekly candle from last week closed bearish rejecting Daily Resistance Zone 1.098 and Weekly resistance zone 1.1024. The top wick rejection was larger than the body of the candle denoting a good amount of sell pressure on Eurusd. The Friday daily candle closed bearish taking out all the lows from earlier in the week. Ideally for this week we would like to see the previous weekly candle's bottom wick (Approximately 48 pips ) be filled with momentum carried over from the prior week. 1.09160 is a Daily and 4hr S/R Level and may act as an area for price to distribute and take us to lower prices. If price gets a close above there we have clean traffic back up to 1.09564 4hr resistance zone. Otherwise if price can get a solid candle close below 1.08845 4hr Support zone then we have a nice 30 pip clean traffic range to decrease back to the low of last week at 1.0848 4hr Zone. Downside target for week is 1.081 4Hr Support zone If wrong, then expecting a range and possible eventual increase back to highs at 1.09875 Daily Resistance Zone.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Momentum Points South 🐻 We can observe the 4hr candle jsut closed below 1.0882 4Hr support Zone. Price also doesn't seem to care too much about our Daily support level 1.08915. Price retraced during London Session and gathered some liquidity while touching into weekly level 1.094 before coinciding with a drop with better than expected USD news. Also upon the 4hr candle close, it printed an engulfing candle and a siginficant top wick. All signs are screaming more downside to come. It may be after a deeper retrace to around 1.0882 and 1.08915 area but probabilities suggest lower prices to 1.0847 4hr support zone. This zone also happens to be the previous weekly candle bottom wick that we are now going to fill with momentum leftover from last week? we'll see if we get the push and fill the 33 pip range with clean traffic to the left down to 1.0847.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
The Cat Eye's a Retrace ? 😾 Or Dump CityOften times I can observe a retrace with London Session. Just as price did yesterday. My thoughts are a potential retrace to 1.09149 4Hr reiestance zone and some consolidation before another bout of Sell Side pressure. Price made leaps and bounds of progress to the downside during the last 2 sessions. I do not think the market is random. Nor am I trying to call a bottom. I am simply analyzing the behavior of this market as I have observed it for quite some time. Price is in close proximity to a Daily Support Level 1.08915 (6 pips away ) We have News tomorrow during NY session which I believe can be a catalyst to pullback a bit more before Inflation data during Friday NY may help provide a continuation of the preceding 1hr trend at that point. Towards the beginning of the week we were calling out a retrace to 1.0847. Idea was to do a Weekly Wick Fill as price was thought to have bearish momentum coming out of last week after a Bearish candle was printed ( With a larger top wick when compared to the body of the candle) We may see this scenario play out and we would like to see a break and retest after prices closes below 1.08820 on either the 1hr/4hr. Otherwise I observe a pullback for the time being.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
💭 Daily Tf Key Level plays Important Role ( 1.0918 )This week 1.0918 Daily Support/Resistance Zone will likely play an important role in the direction of this week's price behavior. This was a Major Support during last week's price action may very well act as a resistance level for the new week's price action. The new weekly candle gapped up but at the end of New York trading we can observe a hold of 1.0918 Daily S/R Zone. We are currently in a tight range to begin the week between this mentioned level and the 4hr support zone 1.0886. If Sellers fail to hold below 1.09180 then entry upon break and retest above it with targets at 1.0958 4hr Zone and the previous week's high at daily resistance zone 1.0986. Otherwise with Sells here we may continue to anticpate momentum to return to the downside. Our weekly target for sells remains at 1.081. More Analysis : Started off the week taking Sells from our Daily S/R Zone 1.0918 . Earned +.5% on the account about after commissions. It turned out to be the high of the day. Being pro-active with your trading plays an important role in profitability. Trade where it is most uncomfortable and you will likely see your results improve. Not Financial advice this has been and will always be education.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
A Volatile Climax in PricePrice did a break and retest above our 1.0918 Daily S/R Zone during Asian trading today and has increased 58 pips since then. The Daily candle reached within 9 pips of the 1.0986 Daily resistance zone formed last week. This return back to the topside of what looks to be a range forming now. Top of the range being 1.0986 Daily resistance zone and 1.08908 Daily support Zone. The NY 4hr candle dipped back to around 1.094 Weekly resistance level where it found support. 1.09435 is also a 1Hr support Zone that was created with the New York session 1Hr candle. 2 4 Hour candles have closed above 1.0957 4hr Zone. Maybe I'm just trading what I think but I prefer selling at these prices. My thoughts are that we are towards to the topside of what could now be a range as previously mentioned on the 4hr timeframe .
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Eurusd Shaking out Weak hands?Trading is not complicated once you have a good understanding of whatever your technical approach is to the markets. After that good understanding is achieved you will have reasonable expectations about where price can go and will rarely be surprised. However, trading can become difficult when you throw trading psychology in the mix. Positive trading psychology is the sum of your mindset, discipline, and patience. This is why it's the most fragile and significant portion of your bottom line. Listening to the great traders and reading about their stories it's often mentioned as the most important piece of the puzzle when it comes to long term & consistent returns. It requires inner reflection and a good amount of attention from time to time. I have run into one of these occasions as I have strayed from my bread and butter. I have nonetheless created a rule on my trading plan to save me from any future occasions.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
SHORT EURUSD (Weekly Timeframe)EURUSD is bearish on the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. EURUSD failed once again to break above the resistance (supply zone) area 1.09-1.10. On the weekly timeframe, a retest of the double top neckline was established at the resistance area and a reach of the upper channel of the downtrend and a possible formation of a triple top (H&S) at smaller scale, which all possibly confirms its downtrend continuation first to area 1.05, then to 1.03 and later to its previous low 0.95 and into the lower of the downtrend channel at 0.90. Below my previous long-term target on the monthly timeframe:
Short
by WaelHaz
6
Bullish Flag pattern 🏺Anticipating Eurusd Bulls to arrive sometime midweek during Powell's speeches. It's simply too difficult for me to not imagine some resurgence of bulls and Market optimism with risk-on buying back up to the 1.096 1Hr Zone Highs from the previous week. The Monthly candle has 11 days left in it and is now a solid bullish candle. I'm anticipating an upside push after a +1% Bullish weekly candle on Eurusd. It was a rather large weekly engulfing last week that was printed and the largest bullish close on said timeframe since the 2nd week of the year. As stated in the May 24th publishing and roughly 1 month ago, " Bull targets for the month of June are - a return to 1.1024 weekly level - a push towards 1.14655 Weekly level. " This remains as we have 9 trading day's remaining in June 23'. It is quite possible we may just range for some time before probing more towards the weekly level 1.1024. Must plan for Bullish and Bearish scenarios. Our most recent Daily S/R Zone stands at 1.0781. It is possible we may go back and test here but like this to be the least probable. Have a great trading week following the probabilities. Also cutting your losses short and letting your profits run. Bearish Target on Week 1.08146 Bullish Target on Week 1.10
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
This is Forex.. (Timing is Key) Correction with London 📻 Currently Sitting at 4Hr Supply Zone ( 1.09945 ) Looking for lower prices as price has touched into a 4hr Supply zone and we have an upcoming london session. What we may observe is a quick spike then a hard retreat back down to 1.098 or even 1.0945 ( Both of which are daily S/R Levels) . You can observe this behavior on Eurusd from last week. I will include a snapshot. A Brief description being as price was creating Higher Highs and Higher Lows on the daily timeframe EU was stairstepping it's way up by doing a retest at Daily S/R Zones. The wednesday Daily candle did a retest at 1.07817 Daily S/R Zone/. The Thursday daily candle did a retest at the 1.08126 Daily S/R Level. It's a recurring theme and is something we may anticipate as price continues to makes it's ascent. You may trade the pullback to the downside or wait for better Risk/Reward Long price areas. More attractive long prices area's being the 1.098 and 1.0945 Daily S/R Zones previously mentioned. Sometimes it's more about understanding the psychology of market participants and using this to your advantage. Price is High as we approach the 2nd to last london session of the week. But with london we will expect more volume and why not a pullback with this volume. We are sitting at a supply zone anyways. There is alot of liquitiy in forex and so you will not see insane 10% increases in 2 days like you can observe in crypto.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Impending Volatility ☕ / EurusdThe Weekly candle has touched into 1.1012, only 12 pips from our weekly resistance level 1.1024. On the daily timeframe we can observe a bearish candle Shooting star rejection candle is forming and price is currently below our 1.098 Daily S/R Zone. On the 4Hr timeframe we can observe price having issues with the 1.0995 4Hr Supply zone. The 2nd London 4hr candle has just closed bearish with a top wick twice the size of the body. The new 4hr candle thus far has confirmed our bearish thoughts as it has pushed down 14 pips in the first 15 minutes. 1Hr Timeframe : Price retreated during asian session pre-london towards our Daily S/R Level 1.098 which I capitalized on. We then rejected 1.098 S/R Zone upon initial retest as I forecasted in my prev publishing. We ran the highs from asian session and price made it's way a bit higher before pulling back hard for New York session open. We can observe clean traffic going back down 1.0956 and this is what I'm looking for to play out with sell stops .
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
6
News Speeches Stir the pot 🕊️// Eurusd We would like to see the Daily candle close above 1.0945 as this will confirm a breakout to the upside. The candle at that point will close above the daily resistance zone created by last friday's daily candle. The idea is that we have momentum leftover from last week and will see the curretn weekly candle push deeper into the Daily/Weekly zones above. Wild trading day for me but besides that Eurusd has seen a resurgence of bullish volume that we were anticipating after last weeks Weekly candle closure. We were anticipating a continuation of momentum this week and I mentnioned in my previous Eurusd publishing that we may pullback and conolisdate early in the week as the markets sets up. The market needs time to gather liquidity before it makes significant moves. It does that by causing alot of volatility and commotion in the short term in order to get traders on tilt and stir up the pot. Moving forward I'm looking towards a retest of the extreme 1Hr Zone 1.096 and eventually an increase to the next daily resistance level 1.0982 during the next london session.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Range until Upside on Thursday 📞Eurusd did quite a nice job of Holding 4hr support zone 1.09132. We are currently in a range with the resistance at 1.094. The Daily resistance level at 1.0945 held quite well during tuesday's London session. The NY session 4hr candle on Tuesday wicked beneath 4Hr support 1.09132 -> 15-18 some odd pips but closed back inside after buyers showed up and said not today. It is not odd to see the market pullback against the trend from the previous week on Monday/Tuesday as it has done here. The Size of the current " Bearish push" has been 1/8 the size of the Bullish push from the previous week. During the upcoming sessions I can observe a retest of 1.094 4Hr Resistance zone. We have 2 upcoming red folder speeches by Fed chair Jerome Powell which will impact USD strength. Unemployment claims on Thursday and Manufacturing data on Friday to wrap up the week. Unemployment data is supposed to be about flat from the prior week which I see as favorable for a continued ascent on Eurusd Weekly timeframe. Manufacturing data on Friday is forecasted to be mixed. Thinking we can give a good push back to the highs 1.096 1Hr Zone prior to red folder news on friday. The Market Moves Major pips on thursday's. This is because early on in the week the market is setting up. It's setting up for the trend move later on in the week. The Week Matures around Wednesday and Thursday. These are the days when it is especially a good idea to " Let your winners run" .
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Post-Interest Rates... 🏁--> Momentum Push? USD Interest rates helped to pull EURUSD back for better prices. Euro interest rates was the catalyst for a +1% increase in the EURUSD currency pair. The WeekIy candle can push a bit more to end off the week. We usually have a bunch of liquid just past extreme highs and that is what I am explaining on the chart. This is a price action concept. took buys at the beginning of the move and took my humble 14 pips. Anticipating a continuation of price to the upside with consumer sentiment tomorrow. It is expected to improve over the prior data point two weeks ago for the USD. Given the massive buy volume it is difficult for me to visualize that the current daily candle will not attempt at lease so some of push towards the next daily level 1.098 Daily Resistance Level.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Buyers are we Stretching the Luck? 🫢- Weekly Candle is Bullish and has pushed past the previous week's high creating a nice breakout of 77 pips - The 3 Daily candles this week have been Bullish - The Previous Daily candle increased by 70 pips in total ( 31 Pip Body and 40 Pips top wick ) - The previous daily candle's top wick was larger than the body of the candle itself. - The 4hr timeframe has closed two large engulfing bear candles in the time since Interest rates - The Market has punished late buyers with Interest rates data ( I called this out check previous post) - The market has seen a change of character and this has known to be a frequent occurrence with interest rate releases. - I don't think a randomness bias is associated with this Short Idea after we have seen 3 Bullish daily candles in a row ( The evidence above ) - The Market is Beast and representation of the psychology of all of it's participants. Follow your understanding of the price behavior and execute with only good Risk/Reward Ideas.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Ultimate Catalyst : Interest Rates NewsWe saw our increase on Eurusd Halted after the Fed raised rates 3 weeks ago. Now we gain more information on the reasons for their decision. The market has had time to digest the rates and resulted in a substantial decrease for the month of May. We must now observe how the market reacts to their reasons for an increase in rates and the cost of money. Will the dollar continue it's momentum and we see a Eurusd decrease, or will Eurusd pivot bullish in the short term as it digests the Fed's reasoning's. Bear Targets for the rest of May and the month of June are - 1.06654 Weekly Zone - 1.05426 Weekly Zone Bull targets for the rest of May are - a return to Daily level 1.08725 Bull targets for the month of June are - a return to 1.1024 weekly level - a push to 1.14655 Weekly level
by ShrewdCatfx
The Quiet before the Storm 🪁 : Eurusd With the close of the Daily candle in the next 1.5 Hours, Longs would prefer a candle closure above 1.0782. This would confirm another Higher High in market structure. In an uptrend price creates Higher Highs and Higher Lows. If this occurs then we can anticipate a bottom wick ( Higher Low) and then a consequential new bullish candle push to the upside back towards 1.0813 daily resistance zone. At this current time price is Bullish on the weekly timeframe and has broken the previously week's candles high. The Daily timeframe will print the second bullish candle of the week which was expected in my previous analysis. FOMC tomorrow will cause quite the stir. FOMC could cause Eurusd to easily dip back to retest 1.0746 Daily support level before continuing it's ascent or going into a volatile range. Price has reached my bullish target for the week which was 1.0813 ( a 65 pip increase ). CPI data has resulted in Higher High on the 1Hr timeframe. Price ended up pulling back and correcting the increase made during London session. We currently sit above our Daily S/R level 1.0782, late NY session Tuesday. New Bullish target for this week with fomc : 1.087 Daily resistance zone The way CPI data distributed at 1.0813 makes me think. We reached my weekly target 1.0813 before schedule. We had an initial increase in price and I'm sure some players bought the high and are now holding drawdown as we move into FOMC tomorrow. If I was a buyer I would consider getting out for B.E. because the Daily candle is closing in 1.5 hours with a significant top wick. Larger than the body of the bullish candle at least. New Bearish target for this week with fomc : 1.06915
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Sustainable Trend? / Eurusd Longs 🐂As price rejects our weekly Level 1.066 which began on May 31st, we map a possible scenario in which we may jump on the train with long positions. I am anticipating the new weekly candle to pullback first and create a bottom wick as most weekly candles contain. Price has arguably been in a range for the past 2 weeks. The Last 2 red folders news events last week assisted in the increase of price. I am anticipating the same sort of price action this week with CPI ( which is expected to decrease and in theory pump risk assets liek EUR) and Interest rates to be catlalysts for a further increase in price. I idea is that the general consensus for interest rates being held at the same rate supports our preceding trend to the upside. Because it will be priced in and the status quo maintains. The trend is developing to the upside and some news releases will act as a catalyst for a continuation or an excuse to pullback for lower price opportunities. If this bias blows over we may simply obersve a contiued rnage on Eurusd between Support level 1.06902 Daily Support level and 1.0776 (averaged) Daily resistance level. This range scenario or descent on Eurusd will occur if we observe risk off sentiment as crypto continues to plummet and we observe a correction on the U.S. stock indices. Institutions and other large players will crowd into buying the dollar and our ascent to 1.078 will look nothing more than a pump to lure in Late long liquidity as we fall back to 1.066 weekly level.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2