EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has exhibited volatile fluctuations in the current trading session, encountering resistance at the pivotal Key Resistance level of 1.119 with a possible extension to retest the completed Outer Currency Rally of 1.124. This pattern reflects uncertainty regarding the currency's trajectory amidst the ongoing Dead-Cat rebound activity. The prevailing short-term buying pressure is directing the currency towards a potential downward movement to the support level of 1.111, with the prospect of further declines to supplementary support levels at 1.108 and 1.101, given the present interim price action.
Eurodollar
EUR/USD Trendline BreakoutIf EUR/USD breaks below this trendline, it could lead to a significant bearish move.
🎯 First Target: Upon the breakout, the first target will be the nearest support level.
🎯 Second Target: If the momentum continues, we could see further decline toward the next major support.
Keep an eye on the volume and price action for confirmation.
EURUSD Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected (25/09/2024)The EURUSD pair continues to show signs of a slight bearish bias this week, in line with market conditions and fundamental factors. In this article, we will break down the key drivers influencing EURUSD as of 25/09/2024, along with a technical outlook. This analysis provides insights for traders and investors aiming to position themselves for potential downside movement in the EURUSD market.
Fundamental Analysis: Factors Pressuring EURUSD
1. U.S. Dollar Strength
The U.S. dollar has maintained its strength due to a series of factors, including recent hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve. Fed officials have continued to emphasize the possibility of keeping interest rates higher for longer to combat inflation. This has provided significant support for the dollar, making it an attractive safe-haven asset, while simultaneously putting pressure on the euro.
2. Diverging Central Bank Policies
The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently adopted a more cautious tone regarding future rate hikes. With inflation in the eurozone stabilizing, the ECB may opt for a wait-and-see approach, potentially slowing the pace of tightening or halting rate hikes altogether. This divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is expected to contribute to further downside pressure on the EURUSD.
3. Weak Eurozone Economic Data
Economic data from the eurozone remains relatively soft. The latest PMI data showed a contraction in the manufacturing and services sectors, further weakening the euro. Lower-than-expected growth forecasts and potential deflationary pressures also undermine the euro's strength.
4. Geopolitical Uncertainty
Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as tensions in Eastern Europe and concerns over energy security, continue to cloud the eurozone’s economic outlook. These factors have led to capital outflows from Europe, with investors seeking the safety of the U.S. dollar.
Technical Analysis: EURUSD Price Action
On the technical front, EURUSD has struggled to break above key resistance levels near 1.10700, confirming the bearish sentiment. The pair has been trading in a downward channel since mid-September, and with recent price action rejecting the 50-day moving average, momentum indicators signal further downside potential.
- Support Level: 1.09000 is a crucial support level to watch for EURUSD this week. A break below this could accelerate the bearish move, potentially targeting the 1.08500 level.
- Resistance Level: The 1.10700 level remains a key resistance, and a move above this could invalidate the bearish outlook, though this seems unlikely given the fundamental backdrop.
Outlook for the Week: Slight Bearish Bias for EURUSD
Given the combination of strong U.S. dollar fundamentals, the divergence in central bank policies, weak eurozone economic data, and technical resistance, the EURUSD is likely to maintain a slightly bearish bias through the remainder of this week.
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Conclusion
EURUSD is likely to continue on its bearish trajectory, with potential downside towards key support levels this week. Traders should closely monitor U.S. dollar fundamentals, especially any new developments from the Federal Reserve, as these will play a crucial role in shaping EURUSD’s movement. Keep an eye on eurozone data releases and geopolitical headlines for any shifts in market sentiment that could impact this currency pair.
EUR/USD Sell to Buy idea from 1.10200This week's analysis for EUR/USD (EU) is quite interesting, as there is significant liquidity on both sides of the market. My plan is to wait for a liquidity sweep before considering trade entries. Ideally, I would like to see the price reach my 17-hour demand zone to continue the upward trend.
If the price doesn’t immediately reach that point of interest (POI), I’ll look for a short-term sell opportunity from the 4-hour supply zone, but only if I get the right confirmation. While there are equal highs and Asia session highs above the supply zone, I’ll be cautious and look for additional confluences.
Key confluences for EU buys:
- Significant liquidity to the upside, including equal highs and Asia session highs.
- A 17-hour demand zone that caused a break of structure to the upside.
- This is a pro-trend idea, with buys looking more favourable.
- The DXY (Dollar Index) is bearish, further supporting the bullish outlook for EU.
P.S. If the price breaks structure to the upside, I’ll look for a new demand zone to buy from. There’s a lot of liquidity built up above the current price that the market may target.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar has displayed significant volatility within the defined range of Mean Support at 1.101 and Key Resistance at 1.119. This behavior reflects uncertainty regarding the currency's trajectory amidst the ongoing Dead-Cat rebound activity. The prevailing transient buying pressure is steering the currency towards a downward retreat to the support level of 1.111, with potential further retreats to supplementary support levels at 1.108 and 1.101 in light of the ongoing interim price movement.
Euro in the descending channelAfter breaking the ascending channel, the euro has entered the correction phase in the form of a descending channel and it can almost be said that it has lost its strong ascending guard. This will be a new move, most likely in the form of a trading range. A move from the top of the descending channel to the previous bottom is likely
EUR/USD Kicks Off the Week on a Positive Note Ahead of Crucial..EUR/USD Kicks Off the Week on a Positive Note Ahead of Crucial Fed Decision
The EUR/USD pair began the week with positive momentum, hovering around the 1.1000 mark ahead of the London session on Monday. Investors are keeping a close eye on the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision, which is expected to have a significant impact on the market later this week. The key question remains: will the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points (bps), or will it take a more aggressive approach and reduce rates by 50 bps?
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds are nearly split, with a 48.0% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. The market's indecision reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next move as economic conditions remain mixed. While inflation data has shown signs of cooling, other indicators point to a resilient economy, leaving investors to speculate on the extent of monetary easing that may be announced.
All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to provide crucial insights into the central bank's future stance on interest rates. Should Powell signal a more aggressive easing approach, it could weigh heavily on the US Dollar, potentially pushing the EUR/USD higher. Conversely, a more cautious outlook could lead to a stronger dollar, capping any further gains for the euro.
From a technical perspective, the week begins with little change in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows that retail traders are still overwhelmingly long on the euro. In fact, retailer positioning is at its highest point since August 2023, signaling a potential reversal opportunity for contrarian traders. As the EUR/USD approaches a key supply area, a retest could trigger a pullback, with the price poised to drop if the supply zone holds.
Given the heavy retail interest in long positions, we are looking for a short setup in the EUR/USD. A pullback from the current levels, especially around the supply area, could offer an attractive opportunity for bears. With the market bracing for the Fed's policy decision and retail traders heavily invested in long positions, the coming days could provide pivotal moments for the EUR/USD pair.
As the week unfolds, the Fed's policy signals will be key to determining the next directional move for the EUR/USD. For now, traders should remain cautious and watch for any shifts in sentiment as the market digests the Fed's decision and the FOMC press conference.
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EUR/USD Bullish Setup: Anticipating a Bounce from Key SupportHello traders! Today, I’m analyzing the EUR/USD pair on the 1-hour time frame.
We’ve seen some strong movement recently, but right now, the price is approaching a critical support level. This level has held strong in the past, and based on my analysis, I believe we could see a bullish bounce from this zone.
Here’s what I’m looking at:
Support Level: The price is nearing support level, a key area where it has previously bounced. If the price retests this level and holds, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
Price Action Patterns: I’ll be watching closely for bullish reversal candlestick patterns, like a hammer or bullish engulfing pattern, to confirm the strength of the support. This would suggest buyers are stepping in, and the price could start to rise.
Momentum Check: I’ll keep an eye on the overall market momentum by observing the price movement around the support zone. A slowing down of the sell-off or a shift in momentum could further support the idea of a bounce.
Risk Management Strategy: To manage my risk, I’ll set a stop loss slightly below the support level to safeguard against any potential breakdown. For profit targets, I’m eyeing as the first goal, with room for more gains if the bullish momentum continues.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a modest decline, briefly breaching the predefined support level of 1.103 and decisively transitioning to the freshly established resistance level of 1.110. The transient selling propels the currency downwards to the support level of 1.101, with a potential extension to the supplementary support levels of 1.097 and 1.091 amidst the interim price movement.
Thoughts on EURUSD before the ECB rate. H4 12.09.2024Thoughts on EURUSD before the ECB rate
I expect the euro to reach 1.0950-1.10 down to the area of option hedges and profile accumulation, and then continue to grow. Of course, there may be surprises, but this is my prior view. In detail we need to keep an eye on the new option fillings, they will tell us which areas will be hedged. The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut, but the main movement will be given at the press conference on further ECB monetary policy plans. My subscribers and I closed our sales in the private channel yesterday.
EURUSD - The Time has Come!I'm a little late to the trade because I missed the retest of the 1.095 Bi-monthly level, but a new setup above 1.103 is still valid.
The monthly trend has just issued a bullish signal. This is something that hasn't happened since Nov '20 so I think it is worth the risk after so many attempts to break out of this range.
Will love to see this close above 1.10375 for the month of August. This will add a lot more conviction for the breakout play.
Bearish Momentum on EUR/USD (1H) Analysis: On the EUR/USD 1-hour time frame, we can observe bearish momentum. Price has been steadily declining, forming lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are currently in control.
We are approaching a potential support zone , which has acted as support in the past. If the price holds at this level, we could see a bounce or consolidation. However, if this level is broken, we may be looking at further downside targets .
EURUSD - 4H Bearish PhaseEUR/USD recently reached a key daily resistance zone, facing a strong rejection from that level, signaling potential further downside. The pair also lost the critical support zone below 1.11, consolidating under it for the past week. After this consolidation, EUR/USD has completed a pullback to the critical zone, making it technically ready to fall further. This structure offers a solid opportunity for short positions, with a clear rejection from both the daily resistance and the pullback to the previous support-turned-resistance.
Fundamentally, the U.S. Dollar has been gaining strength due to rising expectations of continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. In contrast, the Euro has weakened amid concerning Eurozone data, reflecting slowing growth and economic challenges. The divergence between the two currencies supports further bearish movement for EUR/USD, especially as the Dollar Index continues to rise.
As you can see in the chart, we previously shared a sell position at the 1.1117–1.1122 range. Now, with the technical and fundamental backdrop confirming further downside, this is a good opportunity to sell EUR/USD again, targeting further drops as market conditions remain favorable for the U.S. Dollar.
EUR/USD: Bearish Bias Amid Dollar Strength and ECB Rate Cut Ex..EUR/USD: Bearish Bias Amid Dollar Strength and ECB Rate Cut Expectations
Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair attempted to recover some of its losses from the previous week, following an initial decline in the US Dollar. The greenback weakened after the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims, which delivered less-than-encouraging economic signals. However, the dollar quickly regained ground thanks to positive results from the Final Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories, all of which helped to boost investor confidence in the US economy.
Despite this brief rebound in EUR/USD, the pair's upside potential seems limited. Recent inflation data from the eurozone has heightened market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement a rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting on Thursday. This looming policy shift has created a bearish outlook for the euro, as lower interest rates typically reduce the attractiveness of a currency in global markets.
From a technical perspective, our bearish stance on EUR/USD remains unchanged. Over the past two weeks, the pair has struggled to maintain its rally after hitting a major supply area, which has now turned into a formidable resistance zone. Adding further to this bearish sentiment is the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which reveals that retail traders are predominantly bullish on the euro, while institutional players, often referred to as "smart money," maintain a bearish position. This divergence suggests that the euro's recent attempts to rally may lack the institutional support needed for sustained upward momentum.
Seasonality also favors a bearish trend for the euro at this time of the year. Historical data shows that the EUR/USD pair tends to weaken during this period, aligning with our current forecast. The combination of technical resistance, COT positioning, and seasonal trends points to further downside risks for the euro.
On the chart, I have highlighted a key demand area where the price could potentially drop. This zone may act as a magnet, pulling the pair lower before triggering a possible retracement. If the price reaches this level, we may see a short-term bounce, but the overall bias remains bearish unless there is a significant shift in fundamentals or technical indicators.
In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair faces several headwinds, including dollar strength, expectations of an ECB rate cut, and bearish technical and seasonal factors. Traders should remain cautious as the pair approaches key demand levels, and any short-term rallies may be limited by broader market forces.
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EUR/USD Longs to short idea from 1.10500 My analysis for EU is similar to GU. Currently, the price is very close to a 3-hour demand zone where I will be looking for buying opportunities. Once the price enters this zone, I will wait for distribution before targeting the nearest supply zone for a potential sell.
When the price reaches that supply zone, I will consider entering sells, as there's a similar setup in GU from last week's NFP. However, my ultimate target is the extreme supply zone at the 10-hour level.
Confluences for EU Buys:
- The price has created a clean demand zone that caused a change of character (CHOCH).
- In the short-term trend, there's substantial liquidity to the upside for price to take.
- This setup aligns with the DXY (Dollar Index).
- Price has filled in an imbalance as well.
Note: I am more inclined to take these buys since the demand has caused a CHOCH on the higher time frame. Have a great trading week, and don't forget about the upcoming CPI data!
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a rebound from the Mean Support level of 1.102. It effectively breached our Mean Resistance level at 1.109, establishing a newly created Mean Res 1.115. The transient selling pressure led to a significant downward movement and is anticipated to retrace back towards the Mean Support at 1.102, possibly reaching down to the interim level of Mean Support at 1.097 in the interim price action.
EURUSD Analysis==>Cup and Handle Pattern==>>Pennant PatternEURUSD is moving near the Support zone($1.105-$1.103) and managed to break the Downtrend line .
If we look at the EURUSD chart from the point of view of Classic Technical Analysis , we will notice two Cup and Handle Pattern and a Bullish Pennant Pattern .
After breaking the neckline, I expect EURUSD to rise to at least the Resistance zone($1.111-$1.109) .
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 15-minute Time frame ⏰.
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EUR/USD Outlook as Dollar Weakness Continues the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.10100 to 1.12400. The current outlook suggests that the pair may remain choppy leading up to key announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding potential rate cuts. Both the ECB and Fed are anticipated to cut rates in September, which could sustain the higher price range of the EUR/USD if realized
EUR/USD Longs from daily level of demand 1.10000My analysis for this week aligns well with both DXY and GBP/USD, as the dollar is approaching a major supply level. When the price reaches that supply zone, I expect EUR/USD (EU) to mitigate its daily supply, potentially forming a Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Once this pattern is completed, I plan to look for buying opportunities, potentially holding positions at an intraday level.
If the price retraces upward before mitigating the demand, I will consider selling from the supply zones I've marked, which are near the current price. Specifically, I will watch the 7-hour and 10-hour supply zones for potential short-term sell setups.
Confluences for EU buy opportunities include:
- The higher time frame trend is bullish, with a recent break of structure to the upside.
- A daily demand zone has been established, which also caused a break of structure to the upside.
- There is significant liquidity to the upside, including untouched Asian session highs.
- This trade setup aligns with the higher time frame trend, making it a pro-trend trade idea.
P.S. As it is NFP week, be cautious of increased volatility due to economic news later in the week. Stay vigilant and TRADE SAFELY!