Eurodollar
EURO JPY SHORTEUR/JPY breakout below the 137.40 support level with strong bearish momentum today. The pair set to continue the downward movement to target the 134.50 – 135.00 area. Traders will stay cautious for now as the pair formed a lower low and lower high on the chart. In the next bullish bounce, the pair need to print a higher high to cancel the current bearish trend.
Today’s critical levels to watch:
Support: 135.00, 134.50
Resistance: 137.40, 140.50, 145.00, 148.50, 151.50
fIRST TARGET
131,80
EUR USD - Market still prefers sellersG'day,
Previous analysis attached below back in June 7th. Enjoy.
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, however, as outline below - will be buying until the OL, offers a highly probable zones where a confirmed sell break and a confirmed sell from the Original level. Starting the supply and demand imbalance. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move (positional trade).
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
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Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.
EUR USD - in a huge downward curve towards parity (most likely beyond).
Monthly
Monthly zone reached 1/1 (or thereabouts with a final close generating a low of 0.9948), expected a reactive buy as a fresh demand zone. Due to the curve being so strong with no real structure pivots on the bearish move, the probable zone of price pivoting to is 1.06 (capped) as a PCP level is hidden here within the Weekly, Monthly Combo.
Structurally, the market cycle here has a key move to go - heading down to an untested structure below at the OL (back in 2001).
From a buying standpoint, a reactive buy as price looks to retest from a daily pivot towards 1.00 will indicate a smaller curve needing to be broken from a newly formed trading range (review daily). The monthly curve previously from June 2002 - Nov 2002, shows a nice consolidative pattern so here price will look to form a similar structure after the PCP is hit.
Weekly
1 - note the reactive tap here, upon every FL especially a monthly, price will reject the supply imbalance and now create a buying demand market allbeit for a short duration. The likelihood for this is from the strong curve in play, which offers a PCP level as shown in purple, crossed with a monthly. The high chance of this chance hitting for buying targets is key for; how PCP levels are drawn and to take risk adjusted counter moves, knowing the fresh level here can offer a chance of retesting.
(structure below still has a high probable pathway as price action is minimal here). Applying the pink curve as a steep curve adjustment will show price has a disjointed pathway which price can pivot towards, reject and form the weekly trading range. (see chart below 1 weekly)
Chart 1 - weekly
Bi-annual chart
For position sellers, it's clear the long term move is down to the red box in structure.
Short term buying cover opportunity
From the daily chart - price has created a low forming a strong daily imbalance between the 0.9948-1.005 range of 102 pips, this now offers the high probability of price to revert back once breaking the curve to form a retest of the zone allowing the opportunity for a reactive buy of the zone.
Subject to the daily pivot point, using the Fibonacci sequence - for a strong retest expect 0.705 to be a level of high interest as this aligns with the zone for a reactive buying point.
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2022/7/28 11:59 EUR/JPY analyse
Pivot Point: 137.6
Currently: Consolidating at this 138.6 level , its next support zone is at 139.8
Reaction: Resisted at 137.31 and retraced back to 136.75
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EUR/USD Position Proposition Wyckoff Schematic spotted on 5m while we are waiting the interest rates to be released in less than an hour.
Since we got the SOW the position can be placed on the LPSY that follows after the confirmation. I am in this position already from the visit to the bottom line with 50% of my total position size.
Stop Loss above the AR point.
Target on the 30m bottom line of the next negotiation area, that coincides the parity price.
Turning point or BullTrap! 14 July 2022, the day after tomorrow📈 Turning point or BullTrap! 14 July 2022, the day after tomorrow
Retail sales rose 1.0% in June, the most robust pace in three months, and above expectations for a 0.8%.
Following the report, economists at Jefferies pointing to the fall in gas prices, signaled optimism for a further boost in consumer spending that could set up the economy “for much stronger GDP growth in Q3.”
📝
Recap since this day:
Dollars American lost 2.30% since the 14 July
Crypto market +20% since 14july 60daySMA= 1,24T
BTC +24% since 14july , 60day SMA=28k
ETH +60% since 14july, 60days SMA=1,9k
BTC puell multiple goes from 0.34 to 0.52, since 14 July, miner profitability has increased by 52%, and still below 0.64 marking the end of the bear market (DCA zone still on 24 July then)
12 days until the next waning crescent (5 august), BTC can go up another 28%
Euro/USD has de-peg on the 14 July felling below the 1$ mark at 0,99500€\1$ and went up 3% since then
USOIL touched the 0,618 Fibonacci lines at 91$ the barrel (golden ratio) the 14 July. A rebound is expected if we touch this price multiple times in the coming days
TSL +24% since 14july
Anticipating a move higher on EURUSDEURUSD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.0116 (stop at 1.0058)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A weaker opening is expected to challenge bullish resolve. Support is located at 1.0100 and should stem dips to this area. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Our profit targets will be 1.0250 and 1.0300
Resistance: 1.0260 / 1.0600 / 1.1200
Support: 1.0100 / 0.9950 / 0.9800
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
EUR / USD history channel An analysis of the history of the EURO and its trend against the King Dollar.
Euro was introduced in 2001 in the Eurozone countries, anchoring itself to the price of the previous German mark.
In the EUR / USD Monthly chart of the last 20 years we can see how this new currency has behaved.
From 2001 to 2008 the price rose by 80% and then fell into a descending channel where from 1.6 it returned to par with the dollar.
Graphically we can see that we are on a maxi support never tested before which would be the last since the creation of the single European currency.
The various economic and political vicissitudes in Europe have certainly been a brake on the strength of the Euro, but it should be noted that the trigger was that the Dollar strengthened against all other currencies in the world since 2008 onwards after the intervention of the '' QE '' by the Federal Reserve.
Currently the FED has raised rates and made the dollar more expensive for a few months to fight inflation rates and the ECB has only now started to raise rates which were stuck at 0 by half a point 0.5%.
The support touched the parity price and the increase in rates could be the key to a change in direction of the Euro that will return to gain strength on the dollar.
LPI.sa
EUR/USD -20/7/2022-• Descending channel on daily chart
• Pair faced rejection at the upper bound of the channel
• Italy political turmoil, Nord stream gas flow cut, Recession fears all add to the downside risk
• Descending channel is a bearish pattern, expecting lower prices in the coming days/weeks
• ECB meeting in focus, traders will be watching the rate increase, whether it is going to be 25 or 50 bps
• 20 SMA acting as resistance
• Levels below parity to be revisited
EURUSD is in the Falling WedgeThe price is in the falling wedge. Euro is losing its value against the US Dollar. DMI shows us that the price will continue to fall. ADX points out that the trend will not change. We are expecting that the Euro's value against the US Dollar will continue swinging in the downtrend for a few more weeks but after that we are expecting the price breakout to the upside from the falling wedge.
Analyse Gold D1La maitrise de la crise européenne pourrait faire rebondir les cours à la hausse sur la zone de support , mais dans le cas contraire nous assisterons à la cassure de la zone de résistance installé depuis début 2020.
EURUSD forming a short term bottom?EURUSD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.0082 (stop at 1.0012)
Prices have continued the bullish move higher and resulted in 2 consecutive positive days. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Support is located at 1.0080 and should stem dips to this area. We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 1.0248 and 1.0300
Resistance: 1.0250 / 1.0600 / 1.1200
Support: 1.0800 / 0.9800 / 0.9400
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
What next for EURO?Notice how POC testing is readily rejected each time and the resumption of the overall trend prevails like clockwork. This is the value of Price control and knowing where volume and liquidity in the market exists.
Another hotly contested Point of Control that adhered perfectly the volume led price action of the market participants. At his stage, picking an entry wasn't the main issue - it was sizing it correctly and preparing for the next move downwards.
The uptick in the Eur is seen occurring alongside explosion of yields in key EU bonds, lending catalyst to the moves.
The target is the previous POC, where price action will determine the strength of the correction or if resumption downwards continues
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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For July 15, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar market completed Inner Currency Dip 0.9960. The market appears to be likely to retest our Mean Res 1.0185. Currently, Key Res 1.0270 is the major, primary upside target. An ultimate retest of Key Sup 1.0017 and Outer Currency Dip of 0.9960 is in the making.
EURUSD Daily Outlook | July 15Daily Outlook:
Previous day's bar eventually broke 0.99999 level and took price all the way down to 0.99528. As long as am concerned, the daily TF is showing more bearish signs where we expect wick fill by today's daily candle. I say that price may kiss 0.99500 today.
Intraday Outlook:
1. There seems to be a range between 1.00476 and 0.99794 zones where we want to see 1 HR break and closure above 1.00476 before we can open buy positions with targets as 1.00844 (37 pips) and 1.01193 (72 pips).
2. The break of 1.00134 is a good signs of bearish presence but must be confirmed by allowing 1HR price bar to close below the zone before we can comfortably take any sell position. Our target for bearish positions are gonna be 0.99794 (34 pips) and 0.99528 (60 pips)
Let me know what you think in the comment section.
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EUR/USD -15/07/2022-• Pair remains under bearish pressure
• After a successful break of the previous support level at 1.0340, parity level was reached
• Levels sub parity exposed as fundamentals still point to the downside
• A clear break of parity level exposes 0.96 figure
• The latter served as a support back in 2022 where the pair bottomed before starting a massive rally
• Will the 2002 scenario repeat itself in 2022 ?
• If that is the case, the next range would be 0.96-1.03
• Bulls need to bring the pair back above the 1.0340 level to turn the odds in their favor
• FED-ECB policy divergence is still in play as markets are now pricing in a 100 bps move at the next FOMC meeting.
EURUSD - CHOPPY!EURUSD
CPI print came out higher, we had bearish movement of EUR but we covered that before end of the day and now re-testing those support lows again break of these area then yes we have further bearish movement and I expect the next support areas to come swiftly in control BUT if we stay above these support areas and re-test out of those highs I expect short term bullish movement.
Keep in mind the fundamentals:
FEDs soon to go on black out and we have ECB next week. Now ECB they always behind, lag very much they do but could they do 1 hike rate? I mean sure recession is on the table can't really rule that out globally so overall we could be choppy until clear direction of ECB but overall DXY looks over done and when you keep an eye on 10's etc on yields it's inverting overall and that's where you've seen recession trade idea which was on my week ahead out look that can be seen via my trading view account links on YT - I stated very clearly CRUDE WTI its a recession trade, goes down less demand etc.
Patience is key!
TJ