EURUSD Area of interest & Potential movementsActively looking for buys inside the grey box (1), is a relatively risky trade because of the dollar index looks bullish. To play safe i just want to see an invalidation of some kind of supply. Something like market structure break(2). And then look for buys (3).Sweeping the area of intereset above does not change the long BIAS. İ'll be actively looking for longs from here aswell (4). If we loose the arrow (5) chart need upate.
Eurodollar
BULLRUN FOR EURO 2024📣 Hello everyone!
I believe that the former bull market of the EURUSD currency pair will last until the end of 2024, probably the top will be formed in the first quarter of 2025.
TA:
After a long consolidation, the “Diamond” is broken upward; in rare cases, when it breaks upward, this bearish pattern can act as a trend continuation figure.
Fundamentally:
The Fed will move to lower interest rates in September, we will probably see 2-3 cuts at subsequent FOMC meetings, which will put bearish pressure on the US dollar (DXY) and will be a tailwind for the EURUSD currency pair
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🎯 Intermediate target 1.18$, final target 1.22
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⚠️ That's all for today, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions and profit. Please analyze the information received from me, always think only with your own head!
Goodbye! ✊
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.09600 back down This week’s EUR/USD (EU) outlook is quite similar to my GU analysis, with the market continuing its bearish trend. I’ll be waiting for price to retrace back to the 16-hour supply zone, where I’ll look for entry opportunities on the lower time frames.
My target will be around the demand zone I've marked, which is near some liquidity. Depending on the confluences, I may consider a temporary counter-trend buy, but we’ll see which point of interest (POI) price reacts to first.
Confluences for EU Sells:
Structure Break: Price has broken to the downside, leaving a clear supply zone.
Bearish Market Structure: Overall market structure remains bearish, supporting this pro-trend idea.
Bullish DXY: The dollar (DXY) is gaining strength again, increasing the likelihood of stronger bearish pressure on EU.
Liquidity: Significant downside liquidity in the form of swing lows and engineered liquidity.
P.S. If price breaks through my supply zone and fills the imbalance above, I’ll shift my focus to the 15-hour supply zone to evaluate further sell opportunities.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 11, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar experienced sustained bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, reaching our reignited Inner Currency Dip of 1.090. The prevailing selling pressure towards the support level of 1.079 is temporarily halted. A transient rebound is anticipated due to the significance of completing the Inner Currency Dip. However, considering the current bearish price action, the probability of further declines to the support level of 1.079 remains substantial.
EUR/USD:US Jobless Claims Surge - Analysis.US Jobless Claims Surge, EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Mixed Market Sentiment
The latest U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 4 unexpectedly rose, reaching 258,000—marking the highest level of new jobless benefit seekers since June 2023. This spike has captured the attention of market participants, as it hints at rising unemployment pressures in the U.S. labor market, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's future rate policy. While these higher-than-expected claims suggest some softening in the labor market, the Fed’s battle against inflation continues, leaving investors split on the timing and scale of any rate cuts.
In line with our analysis from yesterday, we anticipated a possible bullish impulse for the EUR/USD, which has materialized as expected. The pair rebounded slightly from a key demand area, with the current outlook pointing to a potential retest of the 1.1000 level or slightly above, touching the supply zone. However, given the mixed signals in the macroeconomic environment, we are not taking any positions at the moment, opting to wait for a clearer scenario to emerge before making any trade decisions.
The Complex Rate Environment
Thursday’s data, which revealed rising unemployment figures alongside persistent inflation concerns, has muddied the outlook for the Fed’s next move. On one hand, the higher jobless claims have fueled speculation that the Fed might lean toward rate cuts in the near future, aiming to provide relief to the labor market. On the other hand, inflation remains a key challenge, tempering expectations for any aggressive or immediate policy shifts. The juxtaposition of these factors has left rate markets in flux, with traders caught between hopes of a dovish pivot and the reality of persistent price pressures.
This uncertainty extends to the broader financial markets, as investors attempt to gauge how these competing narratives will affect currency flows. The U.S. dollar (USD), as a result, remains a focal point for traders, with the Greenback's movement largely driven by fluctuations in rate expectations and economic data.
EUR/USD Outlook
With the U.S. labor market softening and inflation still a concern, Fiber traders (EUR/USD) are closely monitoring these developments. On Friday, significant European economic data releases are notably absent, leaving the EUR/USD at the mercy of U.S. dollar flows as the trading week draws to a close. As we await more clarity on the Fed’s stance, the pair's short-term direction remains dependent on broader macro trends in the U.S.
Our strategy, for now, is to observe how the price interacts with the 1.1000 supply zone. A clear rejection could pave the way for another bearish impulse in the EUR/USD, but we will refrain from entering the market until a more definitive signal emerges. The next few trading sessions will likely provide critical insights into the future direction of the U.S. dollar and, by extension, the EUR/USD pair.
In conclusion, while the rising U.S. jobless claims offer some support for rate cut expectations, the stubbornly high inflation complicates the Fed's path forward. As the EUR/USD hovers around key levels, traders are advised to stay patient and let the market reveal its next move before jumping in.
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US's Resilient Economy Attracts European InvestorsHello!
Chart Explanation & Indicators
EURUSD has been bearish since the weak higher high on 25 September. You find this level in the upper zone. When MACD crossed to the bearish side on 30 September, EUR started a spectacular crash into the bottom zone. EUR pierced the bottom zone and now sits on the trendline. Historically, EUR rallied from this trendline on 27 June and 02 August, as the red circles demonstrate. Rising trendlines, however, tend to break downward eventually. MACD has an active bearish cross and a definite bearish trend. Momentum is growing more hefty to the bearish side. Bears could target the white zone at $1.088 or lower.
Technical Zones
There are two horizontal, red rectangular zones on the chart. The upper zone and the bottom zone . The bottom zone contained support levels where the EUR could bounce on 16 August and 12 September and hit the resistances of the upper zone. However, the EUR lost the support zone. The bottom zone might have become another resistance. The price sits on a rising, red support trendline now. The next zone that might function as a support is around $1.088.
Conclusion
The setup suggests a short position. The price resting on a supportive trendline casts a shadow on the suggestion. The signal might be bearish, but the entry doesn't seem ideal. I'll wait for the setup to change for a new assessment or the price action to align with the setup to catch a neat entry.
Thankfully to all followers,
Ely
EUR/USD Extends Decline as USD Strengthens Ahead of FOMC MinutesAs predicted, EUR/USD continues its downward trajectory against the US Dollar, which is performing strongly ahead of the much-anticipated FOMC Minutes release. The dollar’s strength is fueled by the market’s expectations of more insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. With the FOMC minutes on the horizon, the price of EUR/USD may drop further, presenting traders with critical levels to watch for a possible retracement.
Technical Outlook: Key Areas for a Potential Rebound
We have identified two crucial retracement zones where a reversal could occur. These levels, based on historical price action and current market sentiment, may offer opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the next potential move. However, patience is essential as we await the market’s reaction to the FOMC Minutes, which could trigger volatility and provide clearer direction.
Sentiment Analysis: Divergence Between Retail and Smart Money
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows an interesting shift in market sentiment. Retail traders turned bearish last week, likely responding to the recent strength of the US Dollar. However, when zooming out to a six-month view, these retail traders are still predominantly long, indicating some indecision in the broader market.
In contrast, Smart Money—typically institutional investors—has begun to accumulate long positions in EUR/USD. This divergence between retail traders and smart money suggests that while short-term sentiment favors a bearish outlook, institutional traders are positioning for a potential upward move in the future.
Patience is Key
At this stage, patience remains the most important tool for traders. With critical levels identified and the market still digesting the strength of the US Dollar, we are awaiting a clear reaction to the price levels shown on the chart. The upcoming FOMC Minutes could act as the catalyst needed to confirm the next big move in EUR/USD.
Conclusion
EUR/USD continues its decline as the US Dollar rallies ahead of the FOMC Minutes. While short-term bearish sentiment dominates the market, institutional players are starting to accumulate long positions, signaling potential for a future rebound. Traders should remain cautious and patient, waiting for a clearer signal before taking action, particularly as we approach key price levels that may offer opportunities for retracement.
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EURUSD Analysis==>>AB=CD Pattern!!!==>>Short termEURUSD is moving near the Heavy Resistance zone($1.130-$1.118) and Resistance lines .
There is a possibility of Bearish AB=CD Harmonic Pattern formation near Resistance lines and Time Reversal Zone(TRZ) .
I expect EURUSD to decline to the Support zone($1.082-$1.066) after breaking the Support line .
Note: If EURUSD manages to break the Resistance lines, we can expect EURUSD to attack the Heavy Resistance zone($1.130-$1.118) and increase.
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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EUR/USD Buys from 1.09400 back upEU's market structure is currently very similar to other setups I'm watching. After a bearish run over the past week, I expect price to slow down as it approaches the key 7-hour demand zone I’ve marked out. Once price sweeps the liquidity at the equal highs (EQHs), I’ll be watching for accumulation on the lower time frames (LTF) before a potential mitigation of the 7-hour demand zone.
If price doesn’t reach this demand and instead pushes up to mitigate a supply zone like the 15-hour or 5-hour above, I’ll shift my focus to selling in line with the bearish trend. For now, I’m waiting to see how the market behaves at the open to decide on the next move.
Confluences for EU Buys:
- The 7-hour demand zone has triggered a CHOCH to the upside.
- There are major imbalances and liquidity above that need to be filled.
- For price to retrace to the supply zone, it will need to move upward.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) is sitting in a strong supply zone, which could trigger a dollar drop and support bullish momentum for EU.
Note: If price breaks through the demand zone, it will also break more significant structure to the downside, confirming a long-term bearish outlook for EU.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: EURUSD EURUSD is at an OTE level currently, and may find support for higher prices. I am on the lookout for BUY setups, as I do not want to take shorts in this market until prices breaks below 1.0940.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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EURUSD BULLISHNESS CONTINUESHello guys i still see bullishness on the euro dollar this is the low of the new monthly candle . i think price is going up higher for the previous years high please view my previous ideas for extra informations.
if we break that Monthly FVG The Idea is Invalidated.
next week we should see a hammer looking like candle and the monthy candle close should look like a hammer if we are going higher otherwise the idea is invalidated.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar exhibited significant bearish sentiment during this week's trading session, and uncertainty prevailed regarding the currency trajectory amid Dead-Cat rebound activity. Three critical support levels were breached: Mean Support at 1.111, 1.108, and 1.101, ultimately stabilizing at the pivotal Mean Support of 1.097. The prevailing short-term buying pressure propels the currency towards a potential upward movement to the Mean Resistance level of 1.103. Nevertheless, the likelihood of further declines to the supplementary Inner Currency Dip at 1.090 remains strong, given the current interim price action.
EUR/USD Potential Rejection at Resistance ZoneAlthough EUR/USD isn't yet approaching the resistance zone, I'm anticipating that when the price returns to this level, we could see a rejection. This could lead to a pullback, offering a potential short opportunity once the price reaches this resistance.
EURUSD loosing downside momentumFX:EURUSD
The EURUSD is in the key Fibonacci Retracement level of between the 78.6% and 88.6% levels, volume is starting to decline to the downside, we have almost a complete 5-wave move, and we have a positive RSI divergence reading, after it reach oversold levels. Nice Risk-Reward ratio here, even if it manages to sweep the lows a little bite.
EUR/USD 1H Long: Targeting 1.1130 - 1.1160 Ahead of ADP DataOn the 1-hour timeframe, EUR/USD is showing signs of potential reversal after a period of consolidation. The pair is currently trading near a key support zone under the FibCloud, indicating a potential opportunity for a bullish move. I’m positioning for a long trade, targeting the 1.1130 - 1.1160 range. If I get spiked out due to upcoming news, I will look to reenter the trade once conditions stabilize.
Technical Analysis:
• The price is testing support while hovering below the FibCloud, suggesting a potential breakout to the upside.
• Recent consolidation after a series of declines could lead to a corrective bounce.
• My target is the 1.1130 - 1.1160 zone, with stops placed below the recent swing low to manage risk. I will reenter if volatility from news spikes me out.
Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s news calendar is packed with significant events, particularly the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 14:15 UTC, which could influence volatility in the USD and subsequently impact EUR/USD price action. This release will provide insight into the U.S. labor market ahead of the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data, and traders should be prepared for potential swings in either direction. Other key events include several FOMC members speaking throughout the day, which may offer further insight into the Fed’s outlook.
Risk Management:
Given the potential impact of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data and other news, it is crucial to stay vigilant. I’m managing risk by placing stops below the recent swing low and will monitor volatility closely. Should the trade spike me out due to news, I will reassess and potentially reenter if the setup remains valid.
• Stop-Loss: Below the recent swing low to protect from downside risk.
• Reentry Plan: If stopped out due to news, I’ll look for confirmation before reentering long positions.
EUR/USD presents a long opportunity targeting 1.1130 - 1.1160, but it’s essential to remain flexible given the high-impact news on the horizon. I’ll be prepared to reenter the market if needed, and proper risk management will be key to navigating any unexpected moves.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
EUR/USD Analysis – Potential Rejection at Key ResistanceOn the EUR/USD chart, the price is currently not near the resistance level, but if it rises back to this zone, we could see a potential rejection, offering a good shorting opportunity. This resistance has acted as a strong barrier in the past, and with the right setup, it could provide a favorable risk-to-reward trade. Keep an eye on the price movement as it approaches this level and watch for confirmation signals before entering the trade.
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Will the ECB's dovish stance put downward pressure on the euro?
EURUSD has remained range-bound between 1.1100~1.1215 for the week amidst escalating debates on whether the ECB will implement further rate cuts. Germany's September CPI has dropped to 1.6% YoY, down from the previous month's 1.9%. Market expectations indicate that the eurozone's CPI will decrease to 1.9% in September from 2.2%, marking the first time it has fallen below 2% since July 2021. A sustained decline in eurozone CPI could prompt the ECB to lower interest rates, exerting additional downward pressure on the euro.
Since last week, EURUSD has consolidated in the 1.1110-1.1215 range. After breaking EMAs, the price awaits an additional catalyst for a bounce back. If EURUSD recovers above EMA21 and breaches 1.1215, the price could surge to 1.1270, the highest since Jul 2023. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks the support at 1.1110, the price could fall further to 1.1050.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has exhibited volatile fluctuations in the current trading session, encountering resistance at the pivotal Key Resistance level of 1.119 with a possible extension to retest the completed Outer Currency Rally of 1.124. This pattern reflects uncertainty regarding the currency's trajectory amidst the ongoing Dead-Cat rebound activity. The prevailing short-term buying pressure is directing the currency towards a potential downward movement to the support level of 1.111, with the prospect of further declines to supplementary support levels at 1.108 and 1.101, given the present interim price action.
EUR/USD Trendline BreakoutIf EUR/USD breaks below this trendline, it could lead to a significant bearish move.
🎯 First Target: Upon the breakout, the first target will be the nearest support level.
🎯 Second Target: If the momentum continues, we could see further decline toward the next major support.
Keep an eye on the volume and price action for confirmation.