EURO JAPANEASE YEN STRONG SELL SHORT SIGNALEUR/JPY - This is the forex quote for the Euro vs. Japanese Yen exchange rate. EUR (the 'base currency') is quoted in terms of JPY (the 'counter currency'). The Yen is a historically low-yielding currency, making an attractive vehicle to fund carry trades (where traders borrow cheaply in JPY to buy higher-yielding currencies, including EUR. Investors tend to favor carry trades at times of optimism about global economic performance and stability; they shun them at times of market stress. This makes EUR/JPY sensitive to swings in broad-based market sentiment trends. The pair may likewise find volatility in news-flow related to the Eurozone debt crisis as well the extraordinary anti-deflation policy efforts from the Bank of Japan introduced in 2013
Energy concerns trump all else for the Euro, as news that Russia is limiting gas exports has growth concerns on the rise.
EUR/JPY rates failed to retake the uptrend from the March and May swing lows, EUR/GBP rates have fallen back to their June low, and EUR/USD rates failed to make a decisive break above their daily 21-EMA (one-month moving average).
Per the IG Client Sentiment Index, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP rates have bullish biases while EUR/USD rates have a bearish bias.
WINTER IS COMING
The Euro is dealing with a litany of issues right now, leaving the European Central Bank with the most difficult of jobs among the major central banks. Bond market fragmentation remains a risk, even though peripheral bond yields have not yet widened out relative to their core counterparts. Rate hikes have arrived, although a weak growth trajectory begs the question of how much the ECB can actually accomplish.
But the rejuvenated problem du jour is Europe’s energy supply problem. Russia has announced that it is reducing gas supplies through its Nord Stream 1 pipeline to only 20% capacity, stoking fears that Eurozone growth will slow further, and perhaps more importantly, that energy inventories won’t be stockpiled in a significant enough manner before winter.
These competing factors, coupled with positioning adjustments ahead of the July Fed meeting tomorrow, have seen the Euro lose its grip on perhaps its most bullish technical setup in recent months. EUR/JPY rates failed to retake the uptrend from the March and May swing lows, EUR/GBP rates have fallen back to their June low, and EUR/USD rates failed to make a decisive break above their daily 21-EMA (one-month moving average).
EUR/JPY rates were trying to make a turn higher through the uptrend from the March and May swing lows, but that has failed. The pair is now below its daily 5-, 8-, 13- and 21-EMAs, and the EMA envelope is aligning in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD is crossing below its signal line, while daily Slow Stochastics are on the verge of crossing below their median line. A deeper setback to the area between the July low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March low/May high range around 136.68/86 is still possible
