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$TKA THYSSENKRUPP & IVECO—HIDDEN DEFENCE GEMS SHINEXETR:TKA THYSSENKRUPP & IVECO—HIDDEN DEFENCE GEMS SHINE (1/9) Good afternoon, Tradingview! Thyssenkrupp’s stock soared 20% this week—defence spending’s the buzz 📈🔥. Investors eye TKMS and Iveco’s IDV as undervalued stars. Let’s unpack this rally! 🚀 (2/9) – MARKET SURGE • Thyssenkrupp: 20% spike Monday, 53% YTD 💥 • Iveco: 68% YTD—IDV’s 10% margin shines 📊 • Driver: Europe’s military budget boom Defence cash is flipping the script—big gains! (3/9) – DEFENCE PLAYS • TKMS Spin-Off: Warship unit set for ‘25 🌍 • Iveco IDV: Defence arm spins out in ‘25 🚗 • BofA: TKMS worth half Thyssenkrupp’s cap 🌟 Hidden gems catching the spotlight! (4/9) – SECTOR SNAPSHOT • Defence P/E: 25.8x vs. 18x 3 yrs ago 📈 • Thyssenkrupp & Iveco: ~8x—bargains? • Vs. Giants: Rheinmetall, BAE soar, but these lag Value hunt’s on—undervalued or overhyped? 🌍 (5/9) – RISKS TO WATCH • Peace Talks: Ukraine deal softens demand? ⚠️ • Execution: Spin-offs need to deliver 🏛️ • Focus: Beyond big defence names risky 📉 Rally’s hot—can it hold the heat? (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Thyssenkrupp: €16B+ TKMS backlog 🌟 • Iveco: IDV’s 10% profit margin 🔍 • Cash Flow: Thyssenkrupp hits €0-300M ‘25 🚦 Defence muscle’s flexing hard! (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: Thyssenkrupp’s steel drag, Iveco’s focus 💸 • Opportunities: EU budget hikes, spin-off buzz 🌍 Can these sleeper hits wake up big? (8/9) –Thyssenkrupp & Iveco defence bets—your call? 1️⃣ Bullish—Spin-offs spark a surge. 2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s there, risks balance. 3️⃣ Bearish—Rally fades fast. Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY Thyssenkrupp’s 20% leap, Iveco’s IDV glow—defence cash ignites hidden plays 🌍🪙. Cheap vs. giants, but risks lurk. Gems or mirage?
XETR:TKALong
by DCAChampion
EUROPEAN DEFENCE STOCKS SURGE AMID NATO SPENDING DEBATEEUROPEAN DEFENCE STOCKS SURGE AMID NATO SPENDING DEBATE (1/8) Big News: European defence shares soared on Monday 📈🔥, with growing expectations of increased military spending. This rally follows renewed U.S. pressure (re-elected President Trump) calling for NATO allies to ramp up defence budgets to 5% of GDP—far above the usual 2%. Let’s break it all down! 🚀 (2/8) – STOCKS IN FOCUS • Rheinmetall (Germany): +9% (Frankfurt) 💥 • BAE Systems (UK): +5% (London) 🇬🇧 • Thales (France): +4% (Paris) 🇫🇷 • Dassault Aviation: +4% 🛩️ • Kongsberg Gruppen (Norway): +3% 🔧 • Rolls-Royce: +2% 🚀 Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defence Index hit a 30-year high 🎉 (3/8) – WHY THE SURGE? • EU leaders consider relaxing fiscal rules for bigger defence budgets 💶 • President Trump demands NATO allies go for 5% of GDP 🏛️ • NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte suggests a new target >3% GDP, warning about Russia’s rapid military buildup 🏴‍☠️ (4/8) – GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT • Russia’s war in Ukraine (nearing 4th year) pushes EU to reassess capabilities ⚔️ • IISS report: Russia’s defence spending surpasses Europe’s combined 💥 • U.S. threatens troop reductions unless Europe meets higher spending goals 🗽 (5/8) – POLICY SHIFT IN BRUSSELS • EU might tweak Stability and Growth Pact—exempt certain defence costs from debt caps 🏛️ • “Dual-use” infrastructure (e.g., shelters) reclassified as defence, bypassing strict borrowing limits ⚙️ • Emergency meeting in Paris: Macron + von der Leyen open to flexing EU budget rules for a military surge 🇪🇺 (6/8) – INVESTOR OPTIMISM VS. CHALLENGES • Many EU nations already beyond debt thresholds—3% or 5% GDP on defence = tough choices 📉 • S&P Global warns big defence boosts could threaten credit ratings 📢 • Germany’s €100B special fund ends 2028; France’s deficit hits 6.6% of GDP by 2025—both face fiscal strain 😬 (7/8) – OPPORTUNITIES FOR EUROPE’S DEFENCE INDUSTRY • Bigger budgets = a wave of investment in European-made weapons 💸 • EU’s €1.5B Defence Industry Programme aims to strengthen the bloc’s military capacity 🇪🇺 • Analysts predict a robust outlook for companies like Rheinmetall, BAE, Thales, etc. 🤝 (8/8) – FINAL TAKEAWAY Investors are betting on a more militarized Europe 🌍, poised to spend big under NATO pressure and looming threats. Balancing fiscal rules with security needs is a tall order, but for defence stocks, it’s their moment to shine. Stay tuned: the NATO summit in June could solidify spending targets—and shape Europe’s defence future! 💪
ICMARKETS:STOXX50
by DCAChampion
1
$EUNITR - Europe Interest Rates $EUNITR (January/2025) source: European Central Bank - The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rates by 25 bps in January 2025, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%, the main refinancing rate to 2.90%, and the marginal lending rate to 3.15%. This move reflects the ECB’s updated inflation outlook, with price pressures easing in line with projections. While domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating, and corporate profits are absorbing some inflationary effects. Despite persistent tight financing conditions, the rate cut is expected to gradually ease borrowing costs for firms and households. The ECB remains data-driven and has not committed to a predetermined rate path, emphasizing a cautious approach to ensuring inflation stabilizes at its 2% target.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Trump Threatens Europe with Tariffs: What About the Markets? Hi, I’m Andrea Russo, a professional trader, and today I want to discuss this week's hot topic. Donald Trump has recently revived his old economic slogan, promising heavy tariffs for companies that do not produce within the United States. In a public statement, the former president reiterated that foreign producers would face tariffs if they do not establish manufacturing plants in the USA. A direct attack on the European Union and its Green Deal policies, which he called a "scam". But what impact will this threat have on global markets? In this article, we’ll explore the potential consequences for stock markets, currencies, and vulnerable economic sectors, as well as the ripple effects on global monetary policies. 1. The Context of Trump's Threat Trump’s threat of imposing significant tariffs on foreign companies is nothing new. During his presidency, he initiated a series of trade wars, particularly against China, threatening tariffs on imported goods to stimulate domestic production and reduce the trade deficit. Now, Trump is reprising this approach, focusing this time on the European Union and targeting environmental policies and the Green Deal, which he has long promoted as a "scam" and harmful to American businesses. His proposal to cut taxes to 15% for companies investing in the USA, combined with the threat of tariffs on imported goods, could strengthen his electoral base but has the potential to stir tensions between the world’s largest economies. 2. Impact on Financial Markets Trump's announcement has already triggered reactions in financial markets. While the risk of a global trade war may seem reduced compared to the peaks of 2018-2019, the threat of new tariffs has the potential to create turbulence, especially in sectors that are particularly exposed to changes in tariff policies. Export and import sectors: Companies heavily reliant on imports/exports may be the most vulnerable to these threats. European and Asian producers exporting to the USA could face reduced profit margins if they are hit with new tariffs. In particular, the automotive, technology, and electronics sectors could see demand contraction from American consumers who may have to pay higher prices for imported products. German, Japanese, and Chinese automotive companies could be particularly affected, as they represent a major share of imports into the USA. Currencies: An immediate reaction to these developments could reflect in the currency markets. The USD could strengthen, as protectionist policies are often seen as an incentive for domestic production, making it more attractive to invest in the United States. However, an escalation in the trade war could lead to higher volatility and weaken sentiment toward emerging market currencies, which are more vulnerable to U.S. protectionist measures. 3. Companies and Sectors Sensitive to Tariff Threats Technology sector: Tech companies with strong presences in Asia, such as Apple, Samsung, and Huawei, may face pressure on their profit margins if they are subject to tariffs on exports to the USA. Trump’s policies could push companies to reconsider their global supply chains and set up local production in the USA to avoid additional tariffs. Automotive sector: Another sector highly vulnerable to tariffs is the automotive industry. Foreign automakers may find themselves paying tariffs on imported vehicles, reducing the competitiveness of their products compared to U.S. manufacturers like Ford and General Motors. This scenario could lead investors to reassess their positions on automotive stocks and trade based on expectations of declining demand. Energy sector & Green Deal: Trump’s strong criticism of the European Green Deal could boost the position of American energy companies, particularly those operating in natural gas and oil. The United States may further loosen environmental regulations to stimulate domestic production, benefiting American energy companies over European ones. However, a tariff threat on imported green technologies could hinder investments in renewable energy innovation. 4. Political and Geopolitical Reactions A likely response to this tariff threat could be immediate retaliation from the European Union and other nations. Countermeasures could include imposing reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods, as occurred during Trump’s previous term. The escalation of such measures could trigger a new cycle of protectionism, amplifying global economic uncertainty. The European Union, in particular, could adopt policies aimed at reducing its dependence on the United States, strengthening trade alliances with Asia and other emerging economies, which could significantly impact international trade and currency valuations. 5. Implications for Investors: Strategies and Risks With growing uncertainty over global trade policies, investors should closely monitor the evolution of this situation. Some potential strategies include: Currency hedging: Investors may choose to hedge their positions in currency markets using instruments like forex futures or currency options to mitigate the risk of unexpected dollar fluctuations. Defensive sectors: Investing in more defensive sectors, such as consumer goods and utilities, which tend to be less sensitive to geopolitical developments, could be a safer strategy in times of uncertainty. Low correlation stocks: Looking at alternative assets or investing in low-correlation stocks (e.g., small-cap stocks or emerging market stocks) could be an interesting strategy to diversify and reduce risk during periods of volatility. Conclusion Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on imported goods signals a return to more protectionist trade policies. While the market’s initial reaction may be volatile, the long-term effect will depend on how the geopolitical situation evolves and the countermeasures taken by U.S. trading partners. Investors should prepare for a new phase of uncertainty, closely monitoring central bank actions, fiscal policies, and corporate strategies to navigate this new economic reality effectively.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EUROSTOXX broke the DownTrend Line.The EURO STOXX 50, which serves as a benchmark for major eurozone companies, has been trading sideways in recent months, fluctuating between a strong support level at 4,730 and resistance at 5,099. After multiple tests of the support, the price has formed candles with long lower shadows, indicating a rejection of lower prices and buyer interest in maintaining levels above this critical point. Recently, the index provided a significant technical signal by breaking the Downtrend Line that had been in place since previous peaks. This breakout is a strong indicator of potential short-term growth. Main Scenario: Bullish With the Downtrend line broken, the price now has the potential to target higher levels on the daily chart. The 5,000.00 area is the first key resistance to watch, followed by the previous peak at 5,099, which would confirm a stronger bullish trend. Potential Bullish Movement: Ideal Entry: A pullback to around 4,830.00 (near the broken downtrend line), followed by a bullish candle in that area, could signal a buying opportunity. Primary Target: 5,015.00. Secondary Target: 5,099.17. Stop Loss: Below 4,740, with a more conservative option at 4,727.00 (indicating loss of support). Important Indicators: Monitoring volume during the rally is crucial; low volume could indicate weakness in the breakout. Alternative Bearish Scenario Despite the bullish technical scenario, the market may reverse if the support region at 4,727.48 is broken. A consistent daily close below this level, accompanied by significant volume, would invalidate the bullish structure and could attract strong selling pressure. In this case, a possible Sell Opportunity could appear if a daily candle closes below the 4,727.00 level. Possible targets would be: 4,500.00: Intermediate psychological and technical support. About 22700 points. 4,400.00: Next relevant support, observed in previous months. About 33700 points. A Stop Loss could be put around 4,770.00, about 4300 points. Warning Signs: Heightened global risk aversion, a declining macroeconomic situation in Europe, and ongoing weakness in industrial and consumer sectors could intensify selling pressure. Macroeconomic Context Europe faces a tough landscape. Germany, the region's primary economic driver, is grappling with an industrial slowdown and reduced consumption, impacting the competitiveness of its companies. These issues have lowered growth projections for the eurozone. Additionally, escalating tensions with Russia present a significant geopolitical risk. As the European Central Bank seeks to balance inflation control with growth stimulation, uncertainty in both geopolitical and economic spheres continues to affect the markets. The upcoming interest rate decision on December 12 may provide clearer guidance on the European Central Bank's future actions. Disclaimer 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Consider whether you understand how CFDs work and if you can afford the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment values may fluctuate, and you may not recover your initial investment. This content is not intended for residents of the UK.
MARKETSCOM:EUROPE50Long
by Marketscom
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY November/2024 source: EUROSTAT Euro Area Inflation Rate Rises to 2.3% as Expected -The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone accelerated for a second month to 2.3% in November from 2% in October, matching market expectations, preliminary estimates showed. This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates. Prices of energy decreased less but inflation slowed for services.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/JPY Confirmation of trend reversalHi guys, today we are starting up with the currency pair of EUR / JPY , which had a significant drop today, with a follow up with a few bad economical data shown by the biggest economy in Europe : Germany, additionally the additional tensions generated from Israel earlier , ended up pushing the value of the yen up, hence the fact that it is still one of the looked after safe heaven currencies. Currently the EUR/JPY has reached a break of structure which it should revitalise and cover in the upcoming days.Additionally we see the lower levels of the Fibonacci and a total level of the RSI sitting currently at the level of 35 making it quite oversold. Entry level at 160.500 with the following targets : Target one : 161.053 Target two :161.767 Will update additionally when the targets have been achieved!
Long
by DG55Capital
Will Religious Tensions Reshape Europe's Financial Future?Europe stands at a critical crossroads where religious tensions are silently transforming its financial landscape, with the CAC 40 emerging as a crucial barometer of this unprecedented shift. What many market analysts initially dismissed as temporary social friction has evolved into a fundamental force reshaping investment strategies and corporate valuations. The extraordinary security measures deployed for the France-Israel football match – requiring 4,000 police officers – signals a new reality that transcends simple event management, pointing to deeper structural changes in how European markets must operate in an increasingly divided society. The continent's financial centers are witnessing a profound transformation as religious tensions ripple through market fundamentals. In France, where Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim populations intersect, companies are frantically adapting their business models to navigate these uncharted waters. Traditional valuation metrics are proving inadequate as firms face rising security costs, shifting urban demographics, and evolving consumer behaviors driven by religious and cultural dynamics. This new paradigm forces investors to consider whether Europe's markets have entered an era where social cohesion rivals financial metrics in importance. The emerging religious divisions in Europe represent more than a social challenge – they're reshaping the very foundation of market analysis. As witnessed in recent events across Amsterdam, Paris, and other major cities, what begins as cultural tension quickly translates into market volatility, altered consumer patterns, and revised risk assessments. Forward-thinking investors are now recognizing that success in European markets requires a sophisticated understanding of religious and cultural dynamics, marking a revolutionary shift in investment strategy. The CAC 40's journey through these turbulent waters may well predict how global markets will adapt to a world where religious tensions increasingly influence economic outcomes.
EURONEXT:PX1Short
by signalmastermind
$EUIRYY -Europe's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR 2% (October/2024) +0.3% source: EUROSTAT -Annual inflation in the Euro Area accelerated to 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% in September which was the lowest level since April 2021, and slightly above forecasts of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates. This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates. Inflation has now reached the European Central Bank’s target. In October, energy cost fell at a slower pace (-4.6% vs -6.1%) and prices rose faster for food, alcohol and tobacco (2.9% vs 2.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.4%). On the other hand, services inflation steadied at 3.9%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was unchanged at 2.7%, the lowest since February 2022 but above forecasts of 2.6%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.1% fall in September.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$EUGDPQQ -Europe's GDP (Q3/2024) ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ 0.4% Q3/2024 source: EUROSTAT - The Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% on quarter in the three months to September 2024, the strongest growth rate in two years, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and above forecasts of 0.2% The German economy expanded 0.2%, surprisingly avoiding a recession, after a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in Q2. GDP growth also quickened in France (0.4% vs 0.2% in Q2) and the Spanish economy remained robust (0.8% vs 0.8%). In addition, the Portuguese economy grew 0.2%, the same as in Q2 while the GDP in Ireland (2% vs -1%) and Austria (0.3% vs 0%) rebounded and grew faster in Lithuania (1.1% vs 0.3%). On the other hand, the Italian economy stalled, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and Latvia remained in contraction (-0.4% vs -0.3%). Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP expanded 0.9%, the best performance since the Q1 2023, compared to a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter and higher than forecasts of 0.8%. The ECB expects the GDP in the Eurozone to expand 0.8% this year.
ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
$EUINTR -Europe Interest Rates ECONOMICS:EUINTR (October/2024) source: European Central Bank - The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 bps in October 2024, as expected, following similar moves in September and June. The deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates will now be 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively. This decision stems from an updated assessment of inflation, which shows disinflation progressing well. In September, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in more than three years. While inflation is expected to rise in the short term, it should decline toward the 2% target in 2025. Wage growth remains high, but pressures are easing. The ECB remains committed to restrictive rates to ensure inflation reaches its medium-term goal, using a data-driven, flexible approach without committing to a specific rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
What's unraveling the economic powerhouse of Europe?Once a stalwart of European stability, Germany's economic engine is facing unprecedented challenges. This deep dive explores the intricate factors driving its recession and the far-reaching implications for the continent. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have wreaked havoc on Germany's economy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has disrupted energy supplies, increased production costs, and hindered global trade. Rising interest rates and weak global demand have further exacerbated the downturn. The European Central Bank's aggressive monetary tightening to combat inflation has made borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, dampening investment and spending. Meanwhile, a global economic slowdown, driven by factors such as rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and inflation, has reduced demand for German exports, a crucial driver of its economy. The consequences for Germany and Europe are profound, with potential for increased unemployment, slower growth, and political instability. As Germany is one of Europe's largest economies, its downturn has a ripple effect on other countries in the region. The recession could lead to job losses, as businesses cut costs to weather the storm, exacerbating social tensions and increasing the burden on government welfare systems. Slower growth in Germany will contribute to slower growth in the Eurozone as a whole, limiting the ECB's ability to raise interest rates further and potentially hindering its efforts to combat inflation. Economic downturns can often lead to political instability, as governments face increased pressure to implement policies that alleviate economic hardship. This could lead to political gridlock or even changes in government. Can Germany weather this storm? Join us as we delve into the complexities of this economic enigma and explore potential paths forward.
XETR:DAXShort
by signalmastermind
Rheinmetall opportunity of 25% upsideRheinmetall dipped today due to concerns of the European "far-right" (half of them centrists lmao) wanting peace with Russia in the future. This doesn't change anything for Rheinmetall though. Key facts: - Earnings grew by 21.8% over the 2023. - Earnings are forecast to grow 26.06% per year. - Revenue expected to grow 40% this year. - New deal with Continental Ag. to hire new employees to fulfill the demand. - Fair value estimated at 1100-1200 EUR per share. War scenarios: - A new conflict means growth of 5% + for each arms dealer as seen many times. - If the war in Ukraine continues, Rheinmetall gets more deals. - If the war ends, European countries will need to replenish ammunition storages, which is expected to take up to 10-15 years. Additionaly: - Both Trump and Kennedy Jr. expressed how European NATO members should start to fulfill their obligations of 2% GDP budget for army if they want the US to protect them. - Around 17-18 countries do not meet this obligation yet, most of them being customers of Rheinmetall already. - The total combined deficit of these countries sits around 44 billion USD as of 2024. Sources: www.reuters.com www.reuters.com www.ft.com simplywall.st
GETTEX:RHMLong
by rtlustymen
8
Euro-Zone GDP Quarterly *3M (QoQ)ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ (+0.3 %) Q1/2024 source: EUROSTAT The Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, to beat market expectations of a marginal 0.1% expansion and gain traction following muted readings since the fourth quarter of 2022. The result added leeway for the European Central Bank to refrain from cutting rates to a larger extent this year should inflationary pressures prove to be more stubborn than previously expected. Among the currency bloc’s largest economies, both the German and the French GDPs expanded by 0.2%, while that from Italy grew by 0.3% and that from Spain expanded by 0.7%, all above market estimates. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year ECONOMICS:EUGDPYY , the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4%, beating market expectations of 0.2%, and gaining traction after two straight quarters of 0.1% growth.
ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
SHORT EURUSDEURUSD remains bearish on the daily timeframe and is currently in an ascending channel with a test at the upper channel, a failure to break above a major resistance area at 1.09-1.10 level, and a bearish daily engulfing candlestick pattern that would confirm its next movement. The first target is to the lower channel at area 1.07 and if it breaks, the next target will be to the major support zone at area 1.05 and a break below will confirm a movement to the lower of the descending channel at near parity levels.
Short
by WaelHaz