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$EUR/USD - Euro Putin a Tight Spot (short-term)Are Elliott waves pointing to a military incident in Europe? Gotland is a Swedish island in the middle of the Baltic Sea , commanding a key strategic position. In 1915 , the Battle of Gotland was a crucial moment in The Great War , with the navy of the German Empire being defeated by that of the Russian Empire . Assisting the Russian navy that day was a British submarine. It’s fair to say that such an allied arrangement is unthinkable today. Sweden has just sent troops to Gotland to shore up its defenses as alarm over Russian belligerence grows. This is a significant development and ups the ante in the stand-off between NATO ( the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ) and Russia . Tensions in Eastern Europe have been rising for the last few years as it became clear that President Putin of Russia was intent on re-establishing , if not the land mass, then certainly, the psychology of the Russian Empire . The 100,000 Russian troops parked on the border with Ukraine is testament to that . With NATO-Russian talks at a stalemate, the jungle drums of conflict are getting louder. If there were to be a military incident in Eastern Europe, then most people would think that the European Union euro would fall in value, at least initially. Such is the conventional causality thinking. It often seems like this when an event happens, but if we look closely, then a lot of the time we can see that Elliott waves were pointing to the financial market movement before the event took place . Check out the chart of the Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar and you will see a very distinct triangle , pointing towards a weaker lira, ending in June 2016. In July 2016, a military coup was attempted in Turkey coinciding with a big slide in the lira ( I remember a Turkish economist colleague of mine at the time being completely unable to comprehend how the financial markets might be able to somehow anticipate an event like that ). Right now , the Elliott wave count for EUR-USD is suggesting that either a decline is underway immediately, or that a marginal new high above 1.1483 is required before a multi-big figure tumble. Could this coming depreciation of the euro coincide with a military incident in Eastern Europe? Do not be surprised if it does!.
Short
by ferGOD
4
$EUR/USD - The Dollar and DeflationThe Dollar and Deflation Elliott waves in FX might be anticipating  deflation. Demand for U.S. dollars has surged over the past couple of weeks as the economic and financial sanctions on Russia cause all sorts of ramifications . Essentially, taking out an active chunk of the day-to-day global capital markets reduces financial transactions and makes the availability of U.S. dollars a little scarcer. For example, according to estimates by Credit Suisse , Russia holds about $300 billion in short-term money market instruments, $200 billion in FX swaps and another $100 billion through public and private deposits. Freezing this means that it cannot be used to grease the wheels of the money markets as it usually would. The cost of funding transactions in U.S. dollars has risen. However, demand for U.S. dollars also rises when sentiment is becoming more cautious and negative . Most of the planet’s debt is denominated in, or linked to, U.S. dollars. When people get nervous , they want to ensure that they have dollars to either service that debt or pay it back. In the coming debt deflation, expect demand for U.S. dollars to go through the roof. Ah, but then there’s the Fed. Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, whenever demand for U.S. dollars has surged, the Federal Reserve has utilized so-called “ swap lines ” with other central banks around the world in order to ensure that there is an ample supply of U.S. dollars to meet everyone’s needs. This has tended to coincide with a period of U.S. dollar strength in the foreign exchange (FX) market, which then subsequently turned into weakness. The current Elliott wave structure in the chart of EUR/USD suggests that the current period of U.S. dollar strength could be close to ending. Could this coincide with the Fed re-opening and perhaps extending its swap lines in order to ease the demand for U.S. dollar funding? Perhaps. If so, we can anticipate that sentiment will become more negative in the short-term to trigger the Fed to act. Dollar weakness will not come about  because  the Fed extended swap lines. Rather, the socionomic way to think about it is that dollar strength (often associated with a deflation lurch) will  cause  the Fed to act.
Long
by ferGOD
5
💵Euro/U.S.Dollar💵Analyze !!!Euro moved in Descending Channel more than one year, and these days we saw that the Euro was able to break lower line of Descending Channel , from my idea, this break can be a fake-out and Euro will back again to its channel. I have some reasons for this fake-out : Euro is at my TRZ (Tiem Reversal Zone) + Junction between 61.8% Fibonacci line of Pitchfork and 25% Fibonacci line of Pitchfan + Cluster of Fibonacci ( PRZ (Price Reversal Zone)) + Also we can see support zone and an Important Support Line under the current price of Euro . 🔅 Euro can go UP from the Current Price at least until the lower line of Descending Channel , and in the next step can touch the middle line of the Pitchfork . 🔅 Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD ) Timeframe 4h ⏰ 🟢 Price Reversal Zone ( PRZ ): 1.0907$ until 1.0894$ =Cluster of Fibs 🟢 Support Zone : 1.0776$ until 1.0725$ Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open). Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
2
Putin: Ever Pushing Euro DownChart shows the effect of Russian invasion of Gergia and Ukraine on the Euro. In the previous two attacks (2008 & 2014) the Euro went down around 30% . Of course the whole downturn of the Euro can not squarely be put on Putin, taking into account the devastating effects of the 2008 financial crysis, but it is clear that it has a lot of downward effects none the less. The European economy before the current invasion was not of course great, and COVID rect havoc everywhere especially in bunkerred down Europe. Now that the effects of the coronavirus is diminishing and Europe tries to recover, Putin happens again. So, are we heading for another 30% downward move on the Euro, seeing once again € at ¢80? With the devstating effects this war is causing all over the Europe, we afraid even worst.
Short
by cafedefi
2
EURUSD MONTHLY CHARTJust an idea & trade at your own risk. EURUSD reached its lower Long-term uptrend channel on the monthly timeframe and the next demand zone around 1.06-1.09 If the lower long-term uptrend channel breaks, with a monthly close below it, the next targets are below 1.05 and into below parity, to the lower downtrend channel. If the lower uptrend channel remains intact and this month closes above 1.09, then possibly we may have a triple bottom formation and a break above would lead to a new impulsive bullish movement.
by WaelHaz
EURUSD - Europe WILL PAY for Ukraine WarOur friends in the USA are doing just fine. Far away from trouble, taking advantage of everything and anything. Respect Unfortunately this does not go for the 'Old Lady' Europe. Ukraine situation will affect Europe in many ways and i think that most people are aware of it. Let's go to Reuters that you can trust: Ukraine war sends euro below $1.10 for first time in two years ECB expects Ukraine war to weigh on euro zone growth - de Guindos : Russia's invasion of Ukraine and how the world reacts could have wide-ranging repercussions for the European economy, from rising energy and food prices to economic sanctions that hit trade and investment. That in turn will affect how quickly the economy gets back on its feet after two years of the coronavirus pandemic and the ability of policy-makers, among them the European Central Bank, to wind down emergency support measures. Following are some key variables and vulnerabilities. WHAT IS THE LIKELY IMPACT ON INFLATION? The escalation of tensions into outright conflict has the potential to generate immediate and rapid fuel and food price inflation. European Union countries buy 41.1% of their imported gas from Russia and 27% of their oil: thus, any restriction of supplies would quickly lead to higher energy prices. That would ripple through the economy from higher heating and fuel bills to costlier transport and power for businesses. Food supplies would also likely be hit. Natural gas is the main component in many fertilizers, so higher gas costs would likely push up all crop prices. Separately, Ukraine exported over 33 million tons of grain last year so any disruption there would reverberate across global markets - including in Europe. Overall, Bank of America Securities estimates an escalation could push euro zone inflation up 1 point to 4% for 2022. AND ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT? This will depend on the new sanctions due to be studied by EU leaders at an emergency summit on Feb. 24. They will be "the harshest package of sanctions we have ever implemented", the bloc's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrel said. read more The euro zone's export exposure to Russia has roughly halved since the confrontation over Crimea in 2014, as European firms looked to secure alternative trading partners. EU exports to Russia now amount to 80 billion euros ($89.31 billion) worth of goods annually, worth 0.6% of EU GDP. They are mainly machinery and cars, chemicals and manufactured goods. Among EU countries, Germany is both Russia's biggest exporter and importer; France, the Netherlands, Poland, Italy, Belgium all have sizeable trade. "Coming with strong sanctions against Russia is going to have some impact on the EU economy and we need to be ready for this," European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told Reuters on Feb. 23 L8N2UY6WC. The EU is also the largest foreign investor in Russia with total direct investment of 311.4 billion euros in 2019. That pales though compared with 2.16 trillion euros EU companies have invested in the United States. Russian investment in the EU is yet smaller at 136 billion euros. Depending on the severity of any sanctions and counter-sanctions, some or all of the European presence in Russia could be impacted. "On paper it is a lot, but this is only a small fraction of overall foreign direct investment of EU companies," said Daniel Gross, head of the CEPS think tank in Brussels, who added he saw little risk of Moscow wanting to expropriate plants run by EU companies because of the complexities entailed in running them. SO WHAT IS THE OVERALL IMPACT TO THE EURO ZONE ECONOMY? Clearly negative. Higher energy and food prices would sap household purchasing power and erode confidence. Consumption would be hit quickly and investments would likely fall in the weeks and months afterwards. "The geopolitical clouds that we have over Europe, if they were to materialise, would certainly have an impact on energy prices and, through energy prices, an increased cost throughout the whole structure of prices," ECB President Christine Lagarde said in early February, citing hits to consumption and investment. Moreover, since high energy prices hit lower income families the hardest, governments are likely to introduce subsidies, which in turn would put more pressure on state coffers already stretched by pandemic support measures. The Bank of America study reckoned an escalation would put at risk 0.5 percentage point of Europe's output directly through the drag on private consumption. Many consumers have built up buffers in the form of excess savings amassed during the pandemic, but some of those savings have already been eroded by soaring fuel bills. WHAT WOULD THE ECB DO? The challenge for the ECB, which sets monetary policy for the 19 countries sharing the euro, is that the Ukraine conflict has the potential both to add inflationary pressures and depress economic activity. Normally, ECB policy-makers look past short-term volatility because policy is only effective 12 to 18 months out. Still, with inflation already at a record high 5.1% and the ECB planning to unwind stimulus in the coming months, it could come under pressure to act faster to try and counter further price rises even if that risked hitting future output. Others argue this is precisely the reason to stay cautious and not set a fixed date to end ECB's main Asset Purchase Programme - as some ECB policymakers did ahead of the Russian invasion. "Judging the situation from today’s point of view, I would rather favour a continuation of the APP at least until the end of the year, beyond September," Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, told Reuters. That is what ECB policymakers are likely to debate when they meet in Paris on Feb. 24 for what had initially been billed an informal get-together. It will help shape their decisions at the next policy meeting on March 10. EUROPE WAKE THE F$&% UP!!! THE FXPROFESSOR
by FX_Professor
10