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EUR - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Virus Situation. The outlook for EUR remains tied to the EU's ability to overcome its coronavirus pandemic. At present, the outlook appears bleak, with many European countries entering third waves and reinstating or prolonging economically damaging lockdown restrictions. Vaccinations remain frustratingly slow, a result of ongoing supply constraints and rising anti-vaccine attitudes. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB. Even though the FED and BOE are nowhere close to hawkish, they are far less dovish than the ECB, who has decided to front-load asset purchases to keep EU bond yields from rising too fast. The string of contradicting comments also shows a possible growing rift among the GC which could prove problematic when it comes to potentially altering policy in the months ahead. Even though price action has been very supportive for the EUR in the past two weeks, we think majority of that was due to positioning unwinding in cross pairs (EURGBP) as well as the EUR’s sensitive to moves in the US Dollar which has been pushing lower for the past few weeks. The fundamental bearish bias remains intact. 3. The country’s economic developments. The vaccination roll out and additional lockdowns has weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials for the EU versus the US and UK widening. Fiscal support is another factor where the EU Recovery Fund is yet to be ratified while the US and UK have both rolled out additional stimulus and plans more in the months ahead (US). For the EUR’s growth and fundamental outlook to improve, it will need to overcome its ongoing vaccination frustrations and see a significant increase in the total number of citizens vaccinated.
by thunderpips
EUR - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Virus Situation The outlook for EUR remains tied to the EU's ability to overcome its coronavirus pandemic. At present, the outlook appears bleak, with many European countries entering third waves and reinstating or prolonging economically damaging lockdown restrictions. Vaccinations remain frustratingly slow, a result of ongoing supply constraints and rising anti-vaccine attitudes. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB Even though the FED and BOE are nowhere close to hawkish, they are far less dovish than the ECB, who has decided to front-load asset purchases to keep EU bond yields from rising too fast. The string of contradicting comments also shows a possible growing rift among the GC which could prove problematic when it comes to potentially altering policy in the months ahead. 3. The country’s economic developments The vaccination roll out and additional lockdowns has weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials for the EU versus the US and UK widening. Fiscal support is another factor where the EU Recovery Fund is yet to be ratified while the US and UK have both rolled out additional stimulus and plans more in the months ahead (US). For the EUR’s growth and fundamental outlook to improve, it will need to overcome its ongoing vaccination frustrations and see a significant increase in the total number of citizens vaccinated.
by thunderpips
ALNOV NOVACYT Novacyt big fall today, don't worry medium long term still hasn't broken level but keep an eye out for volatility next week we recommend that you buy if you can to the level you think is appropriate, it is a company that in the medium term has high expectations L.E.D Capital Management has investments and has had large investments in ALNOV, continuing to rely on its potential - THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE AT ALL- Novacyt Group is an Anglo-French biotechnology group focused on clinical diagnostics, with offices in Camberley, Surrey, United Kingdom and Vélizy-Villacoublay, France. The company produces in vitro and molecular diagnostic tests, supplying an extensive range assays and reagents worldwide. HE'S GOT BIG CONTRACTS FOR COVID TESTING. A cordial greeting good investment. In Spain at 9/04/2021 carefully L.E.D
EURONEXT:ALNOVLong
by wallstreetstocks
Largest economies in the US and in EuropeI think every one should know what the 4 largest American states and 5 largest European ones are. After the Chicago state I really don't know what the other ones are and I do not think they carry the same weight as the biggest ones, I don't think it's that important to look at what's happening there. In Europe Spain has had huge unemployement and people living with their parents for decades, Italy is sort of on a path of dying like Greece now, the south countries basically are doomed, the ones around central-north Europe (Germany Netherlands Belgium) are still doing very well, France is ok for now, and the central/east Europe ones are on an uptrend still recovering from the USSR and oh boy I was talking to Czechs and Slovaks today and I dared to speak not completely negatively of communism and gosh the reactions it's like going to an Antifa group and praising Hitler. It's not just Hungarian & Polish politicians, the typical population hates communism with a passion and is very skeptical of the European central power. So to sum up I'd divide it like this: The economic gap between Europe North and South is the reason why the Euro is under stress and might have to be changed, OR - and this might be part of the plan - why Europe needs to have even MOAR power over the nations to make the Euro work. Italians do not want to end up like Greeks, there is a possibility that the EU collapses like the USSR. The divide between the US "camp 1" and "camp 2" is the reason why you cannot have shared laws and shared media and so on, or maybe it is a reason for the federal government to tighten its grip? Stubbornness and totally different ideals but also realities means there is a possibility that the US collapses like the USSR. In any case the government securities bagholders will be the greatest fools the world has ever seen. France has been vigorously fighting and spreading propaganda against Sputnik, the Russian vaccine. But oh joy, Germany started to import it. Now is the time we will see if France is Germany counterweight, Europe second power, or if France is a Chihuahua that will follow its master. I already know the answer :) The difference between the EU and the US is the EU has been stagnating for 20 years and will fall from that stagnant point, but they still retained a neutral trade balance and some manufacturing possibilities; whereas the US has been printing magical money and severely net importing to increase their wealth (not just stagnate) WHILE getting lazier and producing relatively less. So they will both fall from much higher and end up much lower. Some states have it worse than others we all have an idea I think? I can't mention the subject without offending the cry babies. You can look at the stats for the EU here on the link below, it goes back to 2002 it's the same story for 20 years just has kept balooning with more net importing from China and more net exporting to the USA. "Unsustainable" they said, now been going on 2 decades, nothing to see here. trade.ec.europa.eu
TVC:SPX
by MrRenev
3
EUR - CENTRAL BANK ANALYSISObjective: Defined in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, Article 127; the objective of the ECB is to maintain price stability within the Eurozone. In 1998 the Governing Council defined price stability as inflation, measured by HICP, close to but under 2%. Additionally, the ECB aims to support the general economic policies of the Union; which includes full employment and balanced economic growth. As of March, inflation in the Euro zone remains below the ECB's target at 1.3% while the Unemployment Rate for January stands at 8.1%. For Q4, Europe's economy contracted with a print of -0.7% Q/Q and by -4.9% Y/Y, according to its revised estimate. Situation: At their March meeting, the ECB kept all three key rates unchanged with the Marginal Lending Rate at 0.25%, Refinancing Rate at 0.00%. Additionally, the ECB reaffirmed its accommodative stance, stating they expect all three key rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below 2%, within its projected horizon. However, the ECB also stated that although the size of APP and PEPP are unchanged, the GC expects purchases under PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year. Additionally, they added that the envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions.
by thunderpips
2
EUR - BEARISHThe outlook for EUR remains tied to the EU's ability to overcome its coronavirus pandemic. At present, the outlook appears bleak, with many European countries entering third waves. Additionally, vaccinations remain frustratingly slow, a result of ongoing supply constraints and rising anti-vaccine attitudes. Amongst European countries of concern are its flagship, Germany, alongside France and Italy. Other notable countries of concern are Hungary, Poland and Sweden. For EUR's fundamental outlook to improve, it will need to overcome its ongoing vaccination frustrations and see a significant increase in the total number of citizens vaccinated. At the time of writing, just 17.94% of EU citizens have received at least one dose.
by thunderpips
EUR: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: March 28 – Spain’s coronavirus cases increased to 3,264,705 (+4,220) while Italian cases increased to 3,532,041 (+19,595) and French cases increased to 4,545,589 (+37,014). March 17 – Final HICP for February remained unchanged from January at 0.9% Y/Y; although, Core HICP was confirmed at 1.1%, compared to January’s 1.4%. March 11 – At their March meeting, the ECB kept all three key rated unchanged as expected, and although the size of PEPP and APP remain unchanged, the ECB stated that purchases under PEPP in the next quarter are to be conducted at a significantly higher pace. March 9 – Revised GDP for Q4 printed at -0.7% Q/Q and -4.9% Y/Y compared to -0.6% Q/Q and -5.0% Y/Y for the flash estimates. February 1 – Europe’s Unemployment Rate for December remained unchanged at 8.3%. Future Sentiments Shifts: EUR’s outlook remains highly dependant on the coronavirus outbreak and Europe’s economic outlook. Concerns over Europe’s coronavirus outlook have risen since late last year, with many countries now suffering second waves and re implementing lockdowns. Although countries appear better equipped compared to their initial outbreaks, Europe’s coronavirus outlook poses significant downside risks to their economies. Additionally, although the EU is rolling out a vaccine programme, it has faced several obstacles and widespread criticism. All in all, while coronavirus concerns remain high in Europe, risks for EUR will be to the downside, especially when compared to the currencies of countries that are managing their outbreaks and vaccine rollouts more effectively. Primary Drivers: European Central Bank – Europe’s monetary policy outlook remains key to EUR’s fundamental outlook. EUR is likely to be supported when the ECB holds a hawkish stance and begin tightening policy, but come under pressure when the central bank holds a dovish stance and is expected to ease policy. Month End Flows – During the last few trading days of every month, EUR is usually influenced by month end flows as banks and institutions rebalance their books and settle transactions. Although not always the case, more often than not, month end flows tend to be EUR positive especially against GBP. USD –EURUSD is the most traded currency pair in the world, making up 24% of daily forex trades according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). As such, movements in USD often influence EUR, with EUR weakening when USD strengthens and EUR strengthening when USD weakens.
by thunderpips
2
EUR - BEARISHThe outlook for EUR remains tied to the EU's ability to overcome its coronavirus pandemic. At present, the outlook appears bleak, with many European countries entering third waves. Additionally, vaccinations remain frustratingly slow, a result of ongoing supply constraints and rising anti-vaccine attitudes. Amongst European countries of concern are its flagship, Germany, alongside France and Italy. Other notable countries of concern are Hungary, Poland and Sweden. For EUR's fundamental outlook to improve, it will need to overcome its ongoing vaccination frustrations and see a significant increase in the total number of citizens vaccinated. At the time of writing, just 15.07% of EU citizens have received at least one dose.
by thunderpips
2
Suez Canal FiascoWe've all heard about the big ass ship stuck in Egypt's Suez Canal last week. On Tuesday morning (3/23) the 'Ever-Given' vessel, leased by Taiwanese Company EVERGREEN; was caught up in a 'Darude-like' sandstorm causing over 10 billion in damages so far and unforetold shipping delays. The Suez accounts for 30% of imports coming into Europe from Asia. There are currently 150+ container ships caught in this costly traffic jam, where the estimated costs of waiting are upwards of $400Million/hour according to various news sources. Looking for ways to capitalize on News events? If you have access to Asian markets; take some shorts on lease owner EVERGREEN 2603. They had positive reported earning on Monday just one day before the shitstorm and there's a definite shift in momentum back to 30-lvl support. Also consider short positions in the vessel owner; Japanese Shoei Kisen KK. UK P&I Club Insurance is meant to cover pollution and injury, not cover hundreds of lawsuits for this costly conundrum.. Let's get it! static01.nyt.com
TWSE:2603Short
by BonaFide111
1
GBPCAD: Why Buy????? Go On - Shooter_ForexHi, my name is Shooter_Forex . - Pay attention to add GBPCAD. - Zone D1 a bullish signal appears nice price at hard support ( 1.72000 ). - Here, you need to follow more because you need to see The market broke the top (at H1, H4) and if you return, a new bullish signal can BUY up. *** Note areas in order: Demand zone D1, Demand D1 + Demand H4, Demand D1 + Demand H4 + Round Number 1.72000 (Signal = reversal candlestick patterns) I use the following methods: 1. Price Action 2. Supply Demand Zone 3. Risk management: Investment capital ( 4% / deal )
Long
by Shooter_Forex
1
BTC & EUR correction: the dollar has a comeback!BTC & EURO are very correlated because if the EUR goes up the USD goes down and consequently BTC goes up. This week I expect more losses for the EUR and BTC because of the parabolic moves of US10Y notes. (bonds) The fed has an announcement today and I dont know what they will announce but I bet they do everything to protect their dollar. In my chart you can clearly see that when the Euro surges; BTC does so aswell. (zoom out) For the middle / short term I dont expect a recovery from the euro. This is because European bonds have negative yield and are as valuable as toiletpaper, this means more selling of EU bonds and more buying of US bonds. This will only strengthen the dollar even more; this could lead to a short (!) bear market for BTC and the Euro. In my opinion to continue the bull run in crypto we need a correction to cool down NUPL, Thermocap (etc) and to get smart money onboard. Smart money is not buying the top, we need smart money because we are all broke and will not move BTC anywhere up... Remember BTC is a grown up asset now and we need almost a trillion to get it to 100K and no thats not coming from you or me. If BTC really corrects, this means trouble for major alts and they will dump a lot stronger than BTC, however this will create a new impulse of smart money buying. So in my opinion, either you do nothing or you anticipate but you do not want to panic at the bottom and sell there. Another important factor is how the stock markets will react to the parabolic yields and or the announcement of the fed. I think the markets (esp those in the US) are overextended and need a correction (not a crash per se but its possible) to continue the bull run. So similar situation as BTC; see my linked chart below S&P500 vs BTC for more info on those bull runs. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest at your own risk and research. TARGETS: BTC current: 57420 Short term target: 54100-53350 (next 48hrs) Mid / short term: 50900-5100 (before 27-03-2021) Eur current: 1.1889 Short term target: 1.1789 (96hrs) Mid term target: 1.134 (before end of April) Dont hate corrections, they are healthy, extend the bull run and you can actually buy BTC cheaper. ;)
Short
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
2
Bye Bye growth, oh hello turbulent timesIf my idea is not displaying correctly here is a screenshot: I hope this is not too thick to read. An edited video would be better. Or maybe I could make a version with small screenshots rather than 1 big block of text? A little additional explanation if you are interested ==> Part 1: France 2022 elections Frenchies are complaining about "toxic ideas that come from the anglo-saxon world". LOL. Someone explain to the french all these "cultural marxist" ideas don't come from the USA/Canada/etc but FROM FRANCE. They merely embraced these ideas, France was born in them, molded by them. They were born here in France buddies, exported to the english speaking world, and they are simply coming back like a boomerang. The far right is for the first time getting 50% intentions of vote at turn 2. In April 2017 they came second in turn 1, and EURUSD gapped 150 points iirc over that weekend. In France the president forms the government, he decides who the unelected first minister will be. It's like the UK where the queen appoints the first minister expect no one has a clue who it will be, or even heard of that guy until he get appointed 😃 These elections are not only important because the far right & the gap but also because in 2022 it is France that will preside the European Union 😃 And the french far right is stupposed to be pro Frexit, but recently they have been flaunting the vertues of Europe (to get votes). So who knows? The major left wing party, LFI, are now the demon, and liberals want to get their voters. LFI is our Trump. I wrote several times this right wing demonization was BS and they'd do it to the left in a heartbeat, and here we are 😉. LFI calls them the party of freedom, actually not even a party but "just an idea" (with elected officials under that banner but w/e). LFI says they are not islamo-gauchistes (a dum dum concept invented by the media to tell their sheep who to frown at, just like the word "racist"). LFI says they're not even leftists but just the people that are pro-freedom. Trying to avoid dum dum demonization? Not leftists lmao, they praise the virtues of a planned economy, are in awe of the soviet union, form alliances with communists, want to tax high earners at 100%, call celebrities & athletes worthless parasites (isn't that true though?), and the worse part: Hate multinationals! Oh no not our monopolistic profits. Oh no! How dare you criticize Gilead and Pfizer! Conspiracy theorist! So here we have the truth. Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in the UK? The Brexit clan, anti-multinational. Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in the US? The Trump clan, anti-multinational. Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in France? The Stalinists, anti-multinational. They tried taking away their profits, and so they declared war on them... After WW2 there was a debate. Was Hitler inevitable, or an anomaly? It was concluded, and is now the scientific consensus (HAHAHAHA!) that fascism & communism were the outcome of short term problems. Don't you dare say they fixed the problems. Economists say Hitler built a monster economy BUT he was mean therefore it does not count (seriously that's what they say). The NSDAP was so successful that they lost their mind... What they did with that success is not the question. What is in focus is the answer to the question "why are liberals so terrified of national-socialist fascism if they have so little support"? Because they win. They get strong. Germany went from a third world country to a superpower. To take down that small country it took the entire Soviet Union, AND the USA, AND North Africa, AND all of Europe resistants. Just damn. It would not cross liberal-bourgeois minds that THEY are the problem. If they do not get replaced by someone slightly radical that will fix the problem, it will keep getting worse. Like the devil said to south park kids "ok you can postpone it but it will be 10 times worse". Getting rid of Trump, getting rid of Marine Le Pen by baiting her voters to vote for you, to "buy time while problems solve themselves". How dense are those people? The fascists even love this because now they DO want it to get worse. They consider Trump & Bolsonaro are traitors that are not the messiah they were hoping for. They are even saying "voting will not remove them". And they may have a point. EU & USA are old states. Old people don't vote for radical change. They vote for the status quo, for "no waves" while they peacefully live their last days. If adults go out in the street to start fighting will the "no waves" old people go fight? They will tremble and home and pray for things to calm down. "Buy time" just such a dumb concept. I don't want to go on and on so finally here: In 44 BC the roman swamp impeached Julius Caesar with knives. Hurray! The populare dictator is gone! Hurray! Yay! Return to normalcy! (This was a slogan by a US candidate just before WW2 😆) And then a civil war erupted and EVERY SINGLE CONSPIRATOR GOT BRUTALLY SLAUGHTERED. Yaaaay 😆 27 BC, 17 years after Caesar heinous murder, the Empire is born. Augustus Caesar's nephew is the Emperor. Ah and the senate greatly lost power (hurray). The swamp won't let people vote for "populism". "Just buy time problems will magically go away". So we might end up with a power vacuum. So who will we get? Robespierre (Louis XVI vacuum), Hitler (Keiser/Caesar vacuum), Lenin/Stalin (Tsar N2 vacuum), a Caligula maybe? Part 2: The population aging More "buying time" (to make things worse later). Printing money to buy time. High IQ strat. Watch GS Lloyd Blankfein interview/discussion of Paul Tudor Jones (June 18 2018): "The hope is from the guys making the monetary policies that the growth catches up and solves the problem HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA" The BOJ gave up this "monetary stimulus" nonsense. They just capitulated after trying so hard. One nice thing is at some points they were so desperate to get their decade back they literally GAVE MONEY TO SPECULATORS. When the USA & EU get desperate, and it might be soon, make sure to open your pockets. Don't get too lost in numbers and statistics or (ewwww) "charting" and nonsense indicators that don't work, looking at fundamentals & bankers mindset sometimes can provide über opportunities. That 2-in-1 idea is packed enough, I'll leave it here, and make something lighter next time. There is a lot to consider this is not a trivial game, there is no magical ichokumookookoo indicator that tells us what to do with 0 effort 0 info on anything, regardless of everything 😂 And also makes us rich quickly in top of lazilly.
by MrRenev
5
ALDR Delta Drone Created in 2011, Delta Drone is a leading international player in the field of civilian drones for professional use. The group designs and commercialize a range of professional solutions. In addition, it provides support services which represent a complete chain of value. This penny company seems very attractive to us, it is listed on the Paris Europe Stock Exchange. If you have any questions. Let me know what you think in the comments A cordial greeting L.E.D. In Spain at 16/02/2021
A
by wallstreetstocks