One way street for the EUROThe European region is headed one way and its not up! we are in the midst of a precipitous long term decline of the EURO to test the 103 level prior to heading a lot further down. Would not be surprised to see EURO short term rally a bit further suck in the longs and the decline will commence. I do not see much upside left for the EURO, there is nothing positive emerging out of the eurozone for the foreseeable short medium and long term future which only mean one thing we will be selling euro against the greenback and almost any other pair. I don't see any other region in the world that will be worse of. We are on the cusp of some very big declines in the euro value...get ready!
Europe
IUKP - iShares UK Property ETF - new lows aheadIUKP is coming down in a cycle wave C. It is in an early phase of this wave decline, where intermediate wave 4 seems completed and it should move down in intermediate wave 5 to reach lower levels than its previous wave 3. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
SPF 120 Index (France) - critical juncture - keep tuned to shortThe French index as its European counterparts is tracing a cycle wave c down. Currently it is finishing primary wave 2 up wave and the next move will drive the index to new lows. It seems to be tracing minor wave 3 of a five moves up that will complete intermediate wave C and start primary 3 down. For this it should cross the high of intermediate wave A, and complete the 5 waves. After this the more riskier short entry would be at the low of minor B or for a more conservative entry at the low of primary wave 1. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
Long on EUR/USD with double confirmationPrice action on the last close shows a Bullish engulfing candle which is one confirmation that the market has strong momentum and swing towards the upside. Confluence on the head and shoulder pattern which indicates a long position. Looking to go long on this one! FX:EURUSD
SMI Index - Switzerland - long term move downThe Swiss index is tracing down super cycle C wave that should bring down its prices below 6200. There would be opportunities ahead in counter-trend moves, but the long-term is down. In the shorter timeframe the index is on the final stages of intermediate 2 up. After it finishes, wave 3 we bring the index to new lows. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
FTSE MIB - Italy - cycle wave 3 down under wayThe Italian stock index recently concluded cycle wave 2 counter trend up and it is developing primary wave 1 down. The current upward movement is a counter trend that could be labeled intermediate wave 4 or primary wave 2. The log-term forecast is the same in either cases, after this counter trend up the index should go for a long-term downward path. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
What will happend to this second breakout? It seems like the price is trading on sentiment right now.
The Positives :
There is talk that the curve has been suppressed.
The worst in Spain and Italy seem to be over.
Austria is looking to relax the lockdown.
The Fog :
However, we miss fundamental news. That, if you know more about please let me know.
How soon will the airline be allowed to operate again? And where will they be allowed to fly to?
Will there be an effect on how many roundtrips can do due to more strict security measures.
What will demand be for airline travel?
How long did it take for airline travel to be back to normal after 9/11 ( I think quite some time).
Are they in need of a bailout?
If yes, who will pay for it? Will there be one for all EU airlines?
Range:
The 52 week high is 16 I think it will take quite some time before we go back to that high. Read "This stock will not pop overnight"
ISFA - FTSE 100 ETF - more than 35% down aheadFTSE 100 represented by its ETF is tracing down a cycle wave C that should bring prices down to around and additional 35% reaching its bottom in one to two years ahead. Retracements with opportunities for returns in the upside should occur during its path and we will be posting them here. The short term analysis is in the comments. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO RECEIVE THE UPDATES.
Growth Covid-19 confirmed cases GermanyShowing period of relief in exponential growth confirmed cases in Germany past days; diverging from exponential curve. Hope deceleration keeps up. Note that confirmed cases is a lagging indicator and does not represent total cases of infection today.
Euro 50 - danger zoneExpecting a resolve of the movement in the blue triangle. Either bear or bull depends on where it breaks; arrows depict trade entry depending on your orientation.
Leaning bearish, but not really tradable until the break. TA shows a triangle which usually breaks to either up or down and retest the break. Break retest is usually tradable with higher certainty. I also depict a failed Elliot Wave 5 which usually resolves in ABC retracement which may be agressive especially the C part.
Bearish FA is uncertainty of the EU sector. Draghi experiment stimulated growth by promoting cheap crediting which is bearish in my eyes since people in europe are not saving and are overspending. Housing market is quite expensive and most of it is on credit cause it is under 2% but people dont have a lot of free capital and if you have in more and more coutries you have to pay to have the money (currently only bigger clients and only on cash holdings). Population forgot what happened recently and dont think it was too bad. EURIBOR is negative as are interest rates in more and more of the banks. Brexit is looming and Boris could hard brexit which although could be a short term market reaction by itself could cause a domino effect caused by strong USD and currently weak EUR and GBP. Draghi out Lagarde in, but Draghi will probably still have a word in the back.
My eur/usd longterm prediction 2If eur/usd makes a new low under 1.03 then the scenario will be as
shown by the blue line and the target zone 1 will also be 1.40-1.50
and the second 1.68-1.8.
If it does not make a new low then it will be as in the first scenario to
the 1.40-1.50 zone as i have told you.
Anyway the next move is going to be bullish for eur/usd and the first
target is going to be 1.40-1.50
My eur/usd long-term predictionMy prediction for EUR/USD
Eur/usd is in a downtrend since the 2008 and is moving in a bearish channel. This is the time that this channel is going to end. Eur/usd is going upwards towards the zone of 1.40-1.50.
risk disclaimer
This prediction is based on my personal trading strategy and this article does not suggest you to make any trades. I am not responsible for any future losses.