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US stocks are back leadingWorld markets bottomed on Spetember 2022 and during the recovery, European stocks AMEX:FEZ outperformed US stocks TVC:DJI for 9 months Nos, for the last 3 months, US stocks are back in the leadership as the DJI/FEZ ratio broke its downtrend back in April; just weeks before the AMEX:FEZ broke its trendline That is why relative strength is so important, sometimes gives leading signals And for the last 3 months, energy AMEX:XLE has been the leading sector, with coal being the ledading industry, the thing is that stocks like NYSE:CEIX , NYSE:AMR and NYSE:NRP are already extended Let's wait for a base formation in these leading stocks
AMEX:FEZ
by dpuleo19
EURUSD - AnalysisObserve the current Forex analysis for EURUSD, focusing on the return towards the weekly resistance point at 1.0833. Let's closely monitor the price dynamics of EURUSD on both the daily and 15-minute charts. The price has experienced a rally, bringing it closer to the significant weekly resistance point at 1.0833. This level, ranging from 1.0833 to 1.0841, represents the weekly resistance and also corresponds to the high point reached on Friday. Our attention is drawn to the possibility of the price rallying momentarily but encountering a barrier at this intra-day resistance zone. Such an occurrence could potentially lead to a subsequent downward movement, with the aim of reaching the daily support level at 1.0778.
Short
by Blackerberg
Euro Prehistoric Mode- i am not an expert in Forex but what i see with Euro is very bad. The euro was launched on January 1, 1999, when it was worth $1.19, but then began a long slide, falling through the $1 mark in February 2000 and hitting a record low of 82.30 cents in October 2000. - Remember this is just a TA. i don't dyor on news and FA on Forex. - That said the main trend line show us that the situation could be more catastrophic. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - 3 Scenarios are possible : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. right now we could get a consolidation at ---- $1-$0.96 ---- like we had in 2013 then Euro could bounce back around ----- $1.14-$1.15 ---- 2. if we dip under this support we could back easily to 2012 price ---- $0.9 ---- 3. Worst Case would be to back on the main trendline ---- $0.85 ---- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stay safe with Forex! Happy Tr4Ding !
by thecryer
7
Italy - 3rd Largest Economy in the EUItaly 40 Index - CAPITALCOM:IT40 Made up of 40 of the largest companies in the Italian equity market the Borsa Italiana , the IT40 gives us an idea of how the 3rd largest economy in Europe is performing. The Chart - 22 month cycles - 22 months increasing and then decreasing - Based on the pattern we are reaching the end of a 22 month period where price is typically up to 30% lower from current level. - A bearish engulfing monthly candle appears to be forming here. If we close this month with a bearish engulfing candle, history would suggest significant down side will follow. - We have not lost the 10 month moving average yet which typically offers confirmation of further decline. Past patterns are no guarantee of a continuation of future patterns however we can watch out for the continuation. Confirmation signals of significant downside which would be; - Bearish Engulfing Monthly Candle (end of Aug) - Losing the 10 month moving average - In the event of same decline time window once in motion would be Aug - Nov 2023 (based on pattern) Lets see what happens. PUKA
CAPITALCOM:IT40Short
by PukaCharts
GBPUSD - An Opportunity To Meet Magic 33I don't normally pay much attention to the forex markets, but a friend on Twitter went into a cable short last month, had some immediate success, and then more or less got stopped out when she went rippy rip to start July. After looking at it 6 times, I think that my friend's bias that the pound is bearish is legit, but that it's too soon to get short. The reason is, if you look at cable on the monthly, it ran out the COVID lows and has clearly been in a confirmed reversal for months. Now, I don't believe in supply and demand zones. If you ask me, certain high price areas are where "supply" is as evidenced by distribution and certain low price areas are where "demand" is as evidenced by accumulation. Hence, on cable, the 1.31 to 1.35 range is where the real "supply" zone is and it's the soonest place you're very likely to find genuine bearish reversals. And the Petrodollar has been in a very strangely not-bearish position all year, which I outlined here when the propaganda machine tried telling us that Wagner Group was about to decapitate Vladimir Putin. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia On the above note, if you crack in the phrase "China-Taiwan War Rhetoric" into the Brave search engine (Google Duck Bing only propaganda), you can find an article that points out that international propaganda outlets have suddenly started pushing heavily narratives about a war between China and Taiwan being close to breaking out. What's really going on is that the Chinese Communist Party is about to fall, and since China is 5,000 years old, the largest country, and abundant in natural resources and skilled labour, everyone is circling the wagons, trying to figure out how to get control of China. But Xi Jinping may just dump the CCP overnight instead, seizing the initiative in the chess match. If that were to really happen, Xi would weaponize the 24-year-long persecution of Falun Gong by the Jiang Zemin faction, which much of the world's governments and corporations have been complicit in as they've courted the toads in Shanghai (Babylon) all these years. So the situation is very geothermal. Very tectonic. Very dangerous. Things can happen any day, and they may happen any day. When that day comes, bond yields up, DXY up, gold down, equities down. VIX 80. Limit down. Big gap limit down. If you want to get long on risk assets right now, you need to be hedged long volatility So, back to cable: If we zoom in on the weekly, we find ourselves quite the obvious spectacle: Inside the most obvious "supply" zone is a weekly gap, that just so happens to sit at the Masonic 1.33. If you want to have yourself a lol, then Google "Rishi Sunak 33" and click the images tab and look at what the state messagers ran for headline photos when he was appointed Prime Minister. So, cable made a new high and that should be bullish. How can we go short, right? This is actually sound logic, because if you go short over old highs you can get gapped and ran on and then liquidated, because the forex market makers are absolute lunatics and like to do this kind of thing. But here's a super notable divergence between Cable and the DXY: Since lines are just lines, just look at the blips that compose the farthest right portion. Notice that cable made a higher high but DXY actually made a higher low? This indicates that DXY is likely about to pump, or at least that Cable making a higher high is really a stop raid. Moreover, look at the maximum "FAFO" that's emerged last week, which started in June, between the "Risk Free Rate" 10Y yield (ZN1 10Y TBond futures, an inverse representation of the yield) and the DXY. Going back to 2022, this has never happened before: Something is up for sure. And so the call for this is simple. Although there's no reversal pattern emerging yet on the cable hourly: If we see one appear on Sunday, or especially Monday London or New York session, it's equitable to find a short to take out the mid June pivot. You've got a potential 300+ pips on a raid back towards the June lows to set up a run to 1.33, which will net a potential 900+ pips if you do it right. If you feel the idea is suspect, well, just take a look at ES SPX Futures, which just did really the same thing and will probably take the low this week: I think the markets are set to decline heavily this year, which means risk off, USD up, something that I outline here: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' But I also think that we're about a month too early. Well. Do give it your best.
Long
by LordWrymouth
2
Addendum to “The Turning Tides”Following our initial publication, we've received some astute feedback that warrants further and more in-depth discussion. A reader correctly noted that the DAX and Euro STOXX 50 differ in their treatment of dividends - a detail we initially glossed over for simplicity's sake. The DAX is a performance index, including dividends, while the Euro STOXX 50 is a price index, excluding dividends. Understandably, it's a distinction that does play a role in their historical performances. It's also worth noting that a more apple-to-apple comparison to the DAX Index future might be the Euro STOXX 50 Index Total Return future (TESX). However, we originally chose the more popular FESX future due to its better liquidity and much longer history (TESX was only launched in 2016). In addition, the availability of Micro future contracts also makes it more retail friendly. Our primary exploration focused on overarching macroeconomic factors and sectoral shifts, which are pivotal to understanding the relative performance between the indices. However, dividends' contribution to long-term performance is undeniably significant. Therefore, it is prudent to revisit our DAX-to-STOXX50 comparison, this time adjusting for dividends. For this purpose, we've chosen the SPDR® EURO STOXX 50® ETF (FEZ) as a proxy for a dividend-adjusted STOXX50. The ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, generally correspond to the total return performance of the STOXX50 Index, and it has been around since 2002. One thing to note about FEZ is that it’s USD-denominated; therefore, we need to consider EUR/USD exchange rate move over the years in order to get as close a proxy as possible. Here's an updated chart of the DAX vs. the dividend and exchange rate adjusted STOXX50 ETF. The revised perspective still affirms DAX's relative outperformance over the past decade, although less pronounced than the FDAX vs FESX futures comparison suggests. On a closer look at the ratio between the DAX and the dividend-adjusted FEZ, a clear and massive topping pattern emerges, and it has arguably broken the neckline support. In other words, it appears that the DAX is likely going to continue underperforming the STOXX50 on a dividend-adjusted basis. (Due to certain technical limitations on TradingView, the following chart is presented as dividend and exchange rate adjusted FEZ/FDAX but on an inverted scale. Effectively, this means we're still viewing the FDAX/FEZ relationship.) This finer detail serves as a reminder of the multifaceted complexity within financial markets and the multitude of factors influencing asset performance. It also underscores the invaluable contribution of reader feedback, enabling us to deliver deeper, more nuanced market analyses. We deeply appreciate your active engagement and eagerly anticipate further enriching discussions.
F
by inspirante
The Turning TidesGermany, Europe's economic powerhouse, has consistently delivered impressive performance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European debt crisis. This strong performance is rooted in Germany's strong manufacturing sectors and robust export activities. The country's economic strength is exemplified by the DAX's considerable outperformance of other European indices since the early 2000s. DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex) is a blue-chip stock market index comprising the 40 largest German companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Top constituents include internationally renowned firms such as SAP, Siemens, Allianz, Airbus, and Bayer. On the other hand, the STOXX50 index represents a much broader scope, encompassing 50 of the most liquid blue-chip companies in the Eurozone, including ASML, LVMH, and others. Since the dawn of the new millennium, the DAX index has surged by more than 180%, whereas the STOXX50 is only now approaching pre-2008 GFC levels. The DAX's relative outperformance becomes evident when looking at the regression channel of the ratio between these two indices. However, the prevailing narrative may be on the cusp of a significant shift. On a closer examination of the factors underpinning Germany's superior performance, it emerges that sector weightings and macroeconomic conditions have played pivotal roles. Notably, the DAX has consistently underweighted financials as compared to the STOXX50 index. Post-2008, the Eurozone's interest rates have witnessed a consistent downtrend. This period of extraordinarily loose financial conditions and low bond yields, largely a by-product of Quantitative Easing (QE), has favored technology and growth stocks. The main drivers are the availability of cheap capital and a stronger emphasis on growth potential over current valuations. Conversely, the same conditions have exerted considerable pressure on financials, as their earnings capabilities have been seriously compromised. This is precisely why the European banking sector has lagged considerably behind its US counterparts and has yet to recover to pre-GFC levels. This whole dynamics began to falter last year as inflationary pressures mounted, especially in European countries grappling with additional challenges, such as the Russian-Ukraine war and an energy crisis. The European Central Bank, following in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, finally embarked on a journey to raise interest rates, leading to one of the fastest-paced interest rate increases in modern history. Furthermore, Germany's export sector is encountering headwinds as the global economy edges closer to a potential recession, triggered by the tightening measures undertaken by central banks. Demand for products such as automobiles is likely to dwindle, particularly from major trading partners like China and the US. On the other hand, a healthier, more normalized yield curve is finally offering some respite to European financial institutions. This shift could eventually curtail DAX's persistent outperformance compared to other European indices like STOXX50. From a technical perspective, the price action also implies an impending change. The DAX/STOXX50 ratio has arguably completed a Head-and-Shoulder top and is currently sitting on the lower bound of the regression channel. A breakout to the downside could potentially signal the end of a two-decade-long uptrend, leading to a significant reversal in relative performance between DAX and STOXX50. A hypothetical investor looking to express this view could consider establishing a short Micro DAX and long Micro STOXX50 spread at a notionally equivalent amount. The added advantage of this relative trade is that beta exposure is substantially reduced. For example, if a global recession causes most equity markets to decline, this relative trade could still benefit if the DAX falls more than the STOXX50. Do note that a spread-trading strategy may incur additional commission fees versus a traditional outright strategy. Hot tip: Phillip Nova is currently offering zero-commission trading of the EUREX Micro-DAX® Futures and Micro-EURO STOXX 50® Futures. Click here to learn more. To create a notionally equivalent DAX/STOXX50 spread, an investor might short 1 Micro DAX futures (EUR 1 per index point) and go long on 4 Micro STOXX50 futures (EUR 1 per index point). The notional amount of the Micro-DAX futures would approximately be 15,800 EUR. Meanwhile, the notional amount of the 3 STOXX50 futures would approximately be 3 x 4280 = 17,120 EUR. The margin required for each contract of Micro-DAX would be 1,588 EUR while the Micro-STOXX50 would be 380 EUR (as of 10 July 2023). Disclaimer: The contents of this Idea are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by inspirante
SHORT EURUSD (Weekly Timeframe)EURUSD is bearish on the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. EURUSD failed once again to break above the resistance (supply zone) area 1.09-1.10. On the weekly timeframe, a retest of the double top neckline was established at the resistance area and a reach of the upper channel of the downtrend and a possible formation of a triple top (H&S) at smaller scale, which all possibly confirms its downtrend continuation first to area 1.05, then to 1.03 and later to its previous low 0.95 and into the lower of the downtrend channel at 0.90. Below my previous long-term target on the monthly timeframe:
Short
by WaelHaz
6
$EUR/USD - Approaching Resistances$EUR/USD is exploding today as a result of TVC:DXY plunging hard. Fundamentally speaking , concerning is the fact of Euro-Zone's Recession . TA speaking, $EUR/USD is about to be put on stop of it's impulsive price sky-rocketing due to approaching Resistances such as ; -8HR* OB -Macro Broken Trendline which was firstly support but now found as Resistance. If you're in a long, it would be a good move of taking some profits before price reaching at resistances targets. If you are looking for Buy, you should be very careful . In case you are looking to Sell $EUR/USD, its best to remain patient and anticipate resistances conflicting with Price Action . TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
by Mr_J__fx
$EUR50 - Recession - Eurozone OANDA:EU50EUR is officially in Recession due to two consecutive negative quarters in a row. The Euro-Zone entered a Recession in the first quarter of this year and economists are not optimistic for the coming months. Having said that, its Index OANDA:EU50EUR continues to hold its head up high, but the question is, how much longer will it maintain to do so ? Will the situation get better for Europe or domino effect has just gotten started ? TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
OANDA:EU50EUR
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD -Swing Trade 'Short Opportunity'- Swing Short Trade opportunity for $EUR/USD Short trade within Ascending Triangle, which is a Neutral Pattern that can be broken either to Bulls or Bears. Demand yells for lower $EUR/USD. Even on Volume Profile ; 4Hr* (TF) Stay Sharp ! Until the next one .. TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD - Resistances to Observe- With Europe entering in to Recession as a cause of two consecutive negative quarters, a positive Price Action is a merely a relief rally that will be short lived.. Golden Zone is most definetely reachable taking into consideration the negative Macro-Economics events for Europe . Patience is a virtue . TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking in any trading activity based solely on this idea
by Mr_J__fx
The Euro SagaWelcome to our analysis of the EURUSD currency pair. We'll be examining the price actions captured on a 1-day (1D) candlestick chart, as well as a longer-term 6-month (6M) candlestick chart. On the 1D chart to the left, we can observe the trajectory of the Euro over the past year. The currency endured a steady decline throughout last year, eventually settling at a low around the 0.95 mark. However, in 2023, we witnessed a corrective rally that saw the Euro rebound to the 38.20% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, with the latter being tested twice. The current price action exhibits a certain level of neutrality, as corroborated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the 45 mark, which is typically interpreted as neutral. As we look to the week ahead, continuous upward momentum could potentially propel the Euro to revisit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which lies around the 1.127 mark. Transitioning to the 6M chart on the right, we see a broader picture that is quite revealing. The RSI trend over the decades has primarily been bearish, suggesting a persistent weakness in the Euro. This bearish divergence, characterized by the price reaching a high in 2008 while the RSI was recording lower highs, could indicate a lack of robustness and stability in the Euro. The implication of this analysis is not immediately clear but serves as an important consideration for investors. On this 6M chart, we've also highlighted the 61.8% Fibonacci level in yellow, which has acted as both a support and resistance level for the Euro multiple times over the past decades. This level demonstrates significant strength, and it could very likely be revisited in the upcoming weeks. Turning our attention to the fundamental aspect of this analysis, it's crucial to consider the latest news surrounding the Euro and European politics. It's been noted that the Eurozone's attempts to diversify its energy sources away from Russia will continue to face challenges due to unresolved geopolitical issues with the Kremlin into 2023. The threat of a complete cessation of Russian natural gas exports to Europe remains a significant risk. Also, despite Germany entering a recession, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still expected to raise interest rates further. The anticipation of more interest rate hikes by the ECB in the coming months is creating an expectation buffer for the EUR/USD pair, limiting any significant depreciating moves​. In conclusion, while the technical analysis presents a mid/short-term mixed outlook for the Euro, the undercurrents of the fundamental analysis provide additional depth to our understanding. Keep in mind that markets are dynamic and subject to change, and this analysis should be used as a guide rather than a guarantee. As always, it is recommended to use this information in conjunction with your own research and risk tolerance. Happy trading!
by bonsai_trade
SHORT EURUSD (Monthly Timeframe)EURUSD on the monthly timeframe is bearish and its downtrend channel and heading back to parity or below parity levels. The current month's close will form a bearish engulfing pattern, a retest of the double top neckline, and a failure to close above the resistance (supply zone) at area 1.09-1.10. which confirms its next possible leg down movement continuation to the next support (demand) zone at area 1.03-1.04 and a break of such level, next levels are to the previous low 0.95 and to the new low at the lower monthly downtrend channel at the level 0.90.
Short
by WaelHaz
2
EURUSD Weekly Forecast | 29th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop Last week, notably the German Flash Manufacturing PMI and French Flash Services PMI dropped a lot causing the EUR to weaken. This week there's only the German Prelim CPI m/m which is also expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%. This will cause the EUR to weaken further. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance level at 1.07350 Next support at 1.05340 Idea We could see the EUR drop towards the support at 1.05340 by the end of the week. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
We will never see such prices for European stocks again...European indices have been reddening for several days in a row. European Euro Stoxx 50 fell only -3% from the high, but this is just the beginning of a big drop and I will tell you why. Since the beginning of year, European indices have shown very good growth, which is not entirely supported by fundamental factors. Yesterday, on the channel, I already drew attention to the difficult situation in the German industry (the German economy is already in recession and will only deepen into it), but this did not prevent DAX from updating its historical maximum! It is very strange, because Germany is still famous for its industry, and not for the IT sector... Now the technical picture says that there are serious reasons to believe that the growth in European markets has come to an end. There are serious signs that the French TVC:CAC40 index has reversed. There were large sales in the shares of the leaders. Someone "big" got out of the market. Today the decline continued. Do not forget that inflation in Europe is higher than in the US, which means that the ECB will raise the rate even more and even more choke the economy, which can not stand it now! While in the US they are already talking about a pause in raising the rate. The chances of a return to the highs are melting right before our eyes. TVC:SX5E are doomed to fall… 🔰 My recommendation: If you have European shares - sell them. Then say thank you for saved capital. You can find even more useful analytics in header of my profile 🎩 If you are interested in analysis for other assets - write in the comments which asset you need to see.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by Dorado_Crypto
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ... ... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.) Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia. As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships . Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments. As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ... ... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.) So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.) ... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
10