EURNZD Hi Traders
This is my idea about Euro/New Zealand Dollar all things clear in chart . Wait for price to reach 1.7300 .
Enter Point : 1.7280 - 1.7320 ( Short )
Target : 1.70
Stop loss : Breaking 1.73 Zone Completely ( Not only Shadow or Fake break )
*Please consider Money Management and Risk Management and follow your rules . this is only my opinion.
if you have any question you can ask it in comment .
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Europe
Et tu DAX?Like the big US Indices DJ:DJI and SP:SPX we got a MASSIVE bearish divergence and a an ascending wedge on the 2 Months chart.
The German Economy really does not exude confidence since the creation of the Euro. As we know the EZB is already on an interest rate of 0% and there is no mild exit anymore from this state of economy in the Eurozone. Soon we will see the price they will have to pay, it does not look cheap..
Euro Stoxx BreakdownEuro Stoxx Index is also showing signs similar to my CAC40 idea (link below). Again, be wary with the Fed tomorrow. Cutting rates, and future rate cuts, means that there will be nowhere to go for yield other than the stock market. Central banks are attempting to keep stocks propped. This is their new mandate: to keep assets propped.
You can see a some what of a double top as Euro Stoxx tried to break out. Failed to and you can see the long wick and large engulfing red candle. We then created a lower high and have broken below a support/ flip zone. A strong break as well.
Looking to the flip zone at the 3415 zone...although be wary of 3437 too. Would expect one more lower high swing.
EURNZDI will wait for price to goes up and i will take a Sell Position .
Enter Point : 1.6825 - 1.68 ( Sell Position)
Take profit : 1.662 - 1.66
Stop loss : Breaking 1.68 zone completely on 1 Hour timeframe.
*Please consider Money Management and Risk Management and follow your rules this is only my opinion .
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EURAUD SELL 1ST TARGET 1.61000WHERE PRICE IS TODAY @1.63500 WE HAVENT HAD A DAILY OR WEEKLY CANDLE CLOSURE ABOVE THIS LEVEL SINCE THE BEAR MARKET OF THE 2009 RECESSION CRASH.
ABOVE MY PURPLE KEY LEVEL IS UNKNOWN TERRITORY WHICH HAS BEEN REJECTED MULTIPLE TIMES
WITH AXY WEAKNESS WE MAY SEE CONSOLIDATION BEFORE SELL OFF
TREND LINE BREAK & RETEST HAS TAKEN PLACE
1.6100 IS ALWAYS RETESTED ON BACK TESTING THE LAST 12 MONTHS ONCE CURRENT PRICE IS FULFILLED
Short term reversal for GBP/USD
Good Morning,
Even though I dislike taking risks in trading currencies that are in economical war, but I noticed a pattern. I see that the pound has completed the head and shoulder pattern that was formed between Feb and May 2019, plus a reversal bar on the daily close, has given me the courage to take a long positions @ 1.2650 with a take profit @ 1.2795 and a stop loss @ 1.2590.
Good luck
ZIRP-unintended consequences--fisher international effectbased on interest rates and the importance of the euro and USD for global trade. we're seeing an irrational shift thats artificially effecting equity volatility. ZIRP or zero interest rate policy in euro zone. is driving demand for USD and us treasuries vs eurozone risk off assets. this flow is exploiting an already dramatic difference in interest rates globally. when bonds rally equities tend to fall. the bund last week hit an all time low of -20% yield on the german 10 year. aint that crazy people are dumb enough to buy an asset that has a 20% premium attached. thats right people are so afraid theyre willing to buy something and receive 20% less afterwards.. that being said people are choosing to go to US risk off USD and treasuries instead where they actually have a chance of making money. that transition is causing volatility. equity volatility is non-exsistant, but bond flows are overpowering flows.. INVESTORS MUST REMEMBER THE DISCOUNTING MECHANISM FOR FUTURE VALUE AND GROWTH IS.. THE RISK FREE RATE (US 10 YEAR YIELD) if the risk free rate is falling like a rock.. what is that saying about risk in US assets vs the world? thats exactly why im beyond bullish
EURAUD will melt to 1.6060!EURAUD has a hard time keeping up above the 1.6200 region and is showing a slowdown in liquididty and momentum to the upside , suggesting a downside target of 1.6060 to easily be met .
Ofcourse the 1.6000 institutional region is not far away from there and could be met very shortly after we have reached the 1.6060 region.
A risk reward ratio of 1:9 is set up for this trade wich is more then decent.
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BEL20: Lower long term buy opportunity on the Belgian market.The Belgian stock market is on an aggressive sell of since late April (1D RSI = 31.496, MACD = -58.680, Highs/Lows = -51.2357) after it failed to break the 3,870 - 3,910 1W Resistance Zone. The symmetry on a peculiar 1M Head and Shoulders pattern is uncanny so we will be using the 3,200 - 3,330 supply zone (red rectangle) as a continuous buy entry until the 1W Resistance Zone breaks. Our TP is initially 3,800. Keep an eye also for a potential Golden Cross as confirmation.
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WIG20: Strong long term bullish opportunity.The Polish index is approaching the 2,080 October 2018 Low and 1W Support Zone (2,013 - 2,085). With 1M on the lower levels of neutrality (RSI = 45.568, ADX = 19.801, MACD = 34.710) we are on excellent technical long term levels for a bullish reversal towards the 2,600 Resistance. If the E.U. fundamentals help in 2 years time it may even break this Resistance, which if crossed, is an automatic buy to 2,900.
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"Top and Bottom Analysis" EUR/CHF by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
Main Items we Observe on the Chart:
-On April 2019 price broke the ascending trend line
-After that, price started a corrective structure
-As we saw on the weekly analysis the price couldn't surpass the resistance zone and made a breakout of the corrective structure, starting a bearish movement
Based on this, as the price breaks out below 1.13400 with close candlesticks we expect a continuation of the descending movement towards 1.11900
Expect corrective structures to be formed on the way to the support zone
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
Weekly:
Daily:
EURUSD (EUR/USD) Buy 1.11500 >>> 1.11950 (Small target)EUR/USD
1) Two days we close above main volume
2) We have two impulses for first target correction
3) We have resistance zone 1.11923
4) We have Low volume trade zone for confirm first target correction
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Buy = 1.11500
Take Profit = 1.11950
Stop Loss = 1.11050
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Euro Headwinds Continue to BlowMarket technicals continue to weaken for for EURUSD, as the currency pair failed to break through its 10-day EMA of 1.12468. Furthermore, both the SMI, RSI and MACD continue to fall, indicating both money and momentum are on the decline.
If this trend continues, the next stop is EURUSD 1.105311
XLF is going to take a nosedive as the US turns dovishRight, a bit of a congested chart...
In white, we have $XLF, purple, the US unemployment rate, orange is the European bank index and in yellow, we have the effective Fed Funds rate (US interest rate).
Recent rhetoric from the Fed has been pretty dovish, and we have had a pause in hiking rates, with there likely to be absolutely no hike this year.
If an economy that is apparently 'doing well' cannot afford a rate hike, is there not something seriously wrong?
Let's take the European banks...
Since the crisis, they've experienced negative rates whilst the US has had positive real rates...
See, banks like interest rates.
It allows them to make money, and allows for productive lending since there is not adverse selection when it comes to borrowers.
The Fed is about to follow the ECB's lead... I think Fed member Williams said they could go to negative rates if needed...
Which is crazy, since all they end up doing is creating zombie firms.
So let's get this idea set...
The Fed are pausing with rate hikes...
They're likely to stop the balance sheet run off...
And unemployment is at a record low...
Every time the Fed has stopped their rate hike cycle, unemployment has increased and XLF has fallen off...
Is that a decent enough thesis to get short if we start seeing unemployment data tick up?
Well, we already have... we've just had the highest Q1 layoffs in the US since the financial crisis...
Buckle up!
GBPUSD Technical & Fundamental SELLTechnical
1.There is a price channel (grey) which in my opinion it is about to be broken
2. The support trend line (green) within the price channel is been already broken and became resistance
3. Negative RSI divergence indicates change in trend direction
4. Target at 1.28, Pivot at 1.307
Fundamental
1. U.K faces the worst political crisis since 1940
2. Economical data worsen from date to date
3. Still all Brexit options open, no brexit deal more likely
4. One trillion £ has been moved out fro the U.K.
Over all, pound remains the best performing pair for 2019, for some reason no one knows, pound is been supported for long time despite the bad news. This time seems to be over, as investors do not believe any more in a smooth Brexit.
So, overall, SELL.
UK Won't Sign the Divorce PapersBut just because the UK is fickle on leaving the EU for the WTO, its still not sure if ready to make the jump. EURUSD in the upcoming week will almost entirely be moved by Brexit, however concerns over a slowdown in European growth may be justified with more weak EU data, particularly in central bank speak on Tuesday, German CPI on Thursday, and unemployment figures on Friday. While these figures are expected to come in mostly unchanged, it could be Draghi's speech on Tuesday that could give investors the most jitters.
Meanwhile, the UK is injecting much more fear into the heart of EU investors with the prospect of a no deal Brexit. This not only hurts the UK, but also the EU which imports many goods to the UK. Research conducted by the Eurasia Group suggests that every major EU country stands to lose GDP per capita except for Austria if the UK leaves without a deal.
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EURUSD Long is Overcrowded Trade, MAs Signal More Losses The headline kind of describes this trade. Not much else to say technically beyond this. Fundamentally, I'll keep it short. EU growth is quickly declining. I think Brexit will speed this up which is fast approaching. If you want some more words and charts on Brexit, you can check out my analysis here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
BRUTAL: US vs EU stock market comparison.This is no news to anyone who follows the stock market but this is just to put it in perspective how bad the EU is doing.
The euro is lagging, getting close to parity with the dollar and the stock market in Europe has gone nowhere for decades.
If you took all your money out of the Eurostoxx in '07 and put it in the S&P you would have had 3,5 times as much if you had held on.
You would have doubled your money even if you made the decision at the worst point prior to this decade.
The EU is a sinking ship and rapidly declining to 2nd world economic minipower.
Megalomaniacs try to desperately band Europe together with stitches claiming to make the EU relevant on the global stage.
Well they are failing, meanwhile Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Norway, South Korea and many others are proving that you do not need to be big to grow fast.
The election is in May, throw the bums out.
Absolute failure.
Euro In Trouble For Continued Downside Against The Dollar We saw a strong bounce off of the 61.8% fibonacci zone, but we're coming up on a strong resistance that was previously a strong support.
I like to play these Support/resistance flips the first time they test it as the supply usually keeps the price from moving through the level and they are nice shorts with a strong RR for less risk.
I have a relatively tight stop as I could also see a potential push through the resistance to the top diagonal resistance level that we've seen hold back the price several times now.
I don't foresee that happening though, but it's important to weigh all the angles when looking at a trade.
If I get stopped out, I may take another go at it from that level also as it has confluence with both diagonal and horizontal resistances.
On the daily, the 20MA is lining up with our short zone nicely for a possible retest.
On the 240 (4 hour), we are also seeing a possible retest of the 30MA, that has been very pivotal for the FX:EURUSD chart as you can see it used it as support on it's most recent rally.
Looking at the macro picture, we can see we've got a gap way down below around the 78.6% level as well as a bearish picture that is being painted for a full retrace back to the bottom for a potential double bottom.
Listening to Chairman Powell's comments on the US Economy from 60 minutes aligns with my trade thesis as he stated that the US economy looks healthy on every metric and we should see continued growth into 2019 without any rake heights from the Fed.
As always, manage your risk and try and maintain at least a 2:1 or 3:1 RR on all of your trades to maintain profitability in the long run.
This is a small swing trade position on the smaller time frame, but if we do break that 61.8% level and the blue line from previous support doesn't hold, next supports are a ways down based on the VPVR as well as the fibonacci level.
Cheers and happy trading!