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Why The ECB Press Conference Plummeted EUR/USDThe European Central Bank had a conference where Mario Draghi, President of ECB, presented the ECB. One of his alarming statements were that the ECB has decided to cut their monthly asset purchases in half, from 60bn Euros to 30bn Euros, starting of January. With economic intuition, this enlightens Europe's inflation struggles it has had over the past few quarters. As well as Draghi's actions on APP, He has also insisted that quantitative easing is needed for ECB to reach their inflation rate target. Quantitative easing tends to looked as panic and a last resort for economies when trying to boost inflation rate; this can be shown from the massive decrease in value of the EUR/USD after this press conference where EUR/USD major support has been broken @ 1.70739. Lastly, U.S.A's GDP results are pending tomorrow and it is foretasted to be less that last month's 3.1% GDP, this month's forecast is at 2.5%.
by forexwithfred
2
FXE Successful Retest and BreakoutOn the Daily chart we see a beautiful pattern. The 113 level on FXE (EURO) has been resistance since 2015. We've tested that area 5 times. Finally in July, we broke though, came back and retested, and now we are bouncing off of that level. A beautiful pattern here. The base since 2015 has been forming for 2 years, so this looks like an amazing opportunity to get long the EURO via FXE. Momentum in the RSI is in a bullish range (over 50) and it hit oversold territory in both April and July. That is NOT a bad sign, that is a GOOD sign that there are more buyers than sellers. Target: 120, 161.8% retracement of 2016-2017 high to low Stop: 112, under the 113 breakout level Reward to Risk: 7:1, Amazing! ----------- !! PM me with any questions about my analysis !! MY TRADING METHOD: I keep my analysis simple. Good analysis always is. I use Price Patterns, Moving Averages, and RSI for my analysis. I use the 1 day for trend analysis and 60 minute for trade entry For my Targets I use Fibonacci projections + measured moves Successful trading means proper risk sizing and trading small so you can stay in the game.
AMEX:FXELong
by BerlinTrader591
EURUSD SHORT SETUPHere we have yet ANOTHER setup for EURUSD shorts, this setup needs to be followed EXACTLY in order to not enter a losing position on this trade. We need this current strong candle and current low to find a bottom then retrace up to my sell zone (two red horizontals). From the sell zone, look for sniping opportunities on lower time frames to enter sells toward the take profits given (horizontal greens). WE MAY NOT REACH THE SELL ZONE. In this case, look for a false break of the black trend line. I will also take sells from there. IF WE KEEP FALLING, and get NO RETRACE, then we may have missed our trade. I will only sell based on a solid bullish pullback given there is an opportunity on a 1hour, 30min, or 15min chart. HAPPY TRADING!
Short
by samblum_
Reflection: EUR/USD, Tapering.. is ECB crazy or is not?This post is not intended to be an investment advice or a prediction. It´s simply a look at the current economic situation in the Eurozone based on macroeconomic data and historical behavior. - - - - Mario Draghi woke up the beast in Sintra (Portugal) with a speech that was interpreted as hawkish. At that time everyone understood the possibility of tapering by the end of 2017. As a result: investors bought euro in a massive way. At the subsequent meeting of the ECB, Mario Draghi tried to contain the rise of the euro with a dovish speech but finally the pressure of the press brought the magic words and Draghi talked about the possible discussion of tapering in September. As a result: investors bought euro again on a massive way. The magic word for the next few months is: Tapering!!. Is Draghi hawkish or dovish? and most important... is Europe ready for tapering or even more, for a rise of interest rate?. Let's take a look at the USA in 2014 and compare with Europe: 1. Tapering in the US was announced in 2013 and was subject to a couple of goals: an inflation rate of 2% and an unemployment rate below 6%. Tapering finally began in 2014 after 2 years with an inflation rate consolidating around 2%. At this moment inflation rate in Europe still cannot go up to 2%. In fact, it has only arrived a couple of times this year. Moreover the price of energy (brent) is on the ground, something that does not help. On the other hand, unemployment rate is above 9%. Far from its previous levels in 2008, before financial crisis. 2. The debt of the eurozone (and several of its countries) is within the world top 15. Would it be convenient to raise interest rate and pay more for that debt immediately? 3. Germany is the strongest economy of Europe and an exporting country. A stronger Euro through a raise of types does not seem the most convenient in the near future. 4. The euro has just broken an active range since 2015 in mid-summer with low trading volumes. This area is also 0.23% fibo of the 2008´s big fall. After 5 consecutive months of climb without a correction. Is a strong/key resistance like this so easy to break? Apparently it is. Due to a weak dollar involved in a political drama. It´s true that macroeconomic data are improving in Eurozone but is it enough for tapering this year? Draghi will play its cards and we´ll believe him... or not.
by DiegoRV
2
EURUSD Short - Plenty of Signs but Momentum Prevails1.16 - 1.17 is the top of range set over the last 12 months. Before this 2017 surge, price pulled back twice (and rapidly) from that range. Now its up again, and when looking at the CFTC Commitments of Traders Reports, Speculators have rarely been so long (i.e. crowded on the same side of the trade). Surely a pullback is due any minute now. And yet... momentum is strong, and this can be seen by the slow, steady climb of the rally. If prices stay around or above 1.17, then with far greater confidence the top will be near 1.20 - the floor that prices crashed through in 2015.
by MVedra
2
A study of my wrongdoing Yesterday at my "Euro's comeback" analysis, I've suggested a pretty cut long opportunity for some chosen Euro pairs: EURUSD, EURAUD, and EURJPY. The rationale for this "pretty cut long opportunity" is the strong buy signal -- a bullish fakey pin bar. I also suggested to you to read Nial Fuller's educational writing regarding the said Price Action Bar. If you did, you'd know it is ideal to enter at the 50 pct of the bullish fakey pin bar. However, for my own comfort. I enter a limit at 50 and a stop at top of the pin bar. I now have two running trades at each of my suggested long trade set-ups: at the 50 pct and at the top of the pin bar (except for EURUSD which never got to 50 pct so I chased it at 61.8 pct). I've been long EURAUD since 05.15.2016 (www.facebook.com This is my post regarding longing EURAUD and shorting AUDCHF); it had a fakey signal and also was an inside bar in weekly just right at the 200sma. Good spot to long! However, my emotion got to me and closed my trades early. If I haven't... just imagine what those 1 lot trades could be now . Lesson learned! Moving on...
Long
by bearvsbullmarket