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SHORT EURUSD (Weekly Timeframe)EURUSD is bearish on the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. EURUSD failed once again to break above the resistance (supply zone) area 1.09-1.10. On the weekly timeframe, a retest of the double top neckline was established at the resistance area and a reach of the upper channel of the downtrend and a possible formation of a triple top (H&S) at smaller scale, which all possibly confirms its downtrend continuation first to area 1.05, then to 1.03 and later to its previous low 0.95 and into the lower of the downtrend channel at 0.90. Below my previous long-term target on the monthly timeframe:
Short
by WaelHaz
6
$EUR/USD - Approaching Resistances$EUR/USD is exploding today as a result of TVC:DXY plunging hard. Fundamentally speaking , concerning is the fact of Euro-Zone's Recession . TA speaking, $EUR/USD is about to be put on stop of it's impulsive price sky-rocketing due to approaching Resistances such as ; -8HR* OB -Macro Broken Trendline which was firstly support but now found as Resistance. If you're in a long, it would be a good move of taking some profits before price reaching at resistances targets. If you are looking for Buy, you should be very careful . In case you are looking to Sell $EUR/USD, its best to remain patient and anticipate resistances conflicting with Price Action . TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
by Mr_J__fx
$EUR50 - Recession - Eurozone OANDA:EU50EUR is officially in Recession due to two consecutive negative quarters in a row. The Euro-Zone entered a Recession in the first quarter of this year and economists are not optimistic for the coming months. Having said that, its Index OANDA:EU50EUR continues to hold its head up high, but the question is, how much longer will it maintain to do so ? Will the situation get better for Europe or domino effect has just gotten started ? TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
OANDA:EU50EUR
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD -Swing Trade 'Short Opportunity'- Swing Short Trade opportunity for $EUR/USD Short trade within Ascending Triangle, which is a Neutral Pattern that can be broken either to Bulls or Bears. Demand yells for lower $EUR/USD. Even on Volume Profile ; 4Hr* (TF) Stay Sharp ! Until the next one .. TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD - Resistances to Observe- With Europe entering in to Recession as a cause of two consecutive negative quarters, a positive Price Action is a merely a relief rally that will be short lived.. Golden Zone is most definetely reachable taking into consideration the negative Macro-Economics events for Europe . Patience is a virtue . TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking in any trading activity based solely on this idea
by Mr_J__fx
The Euro SagaWelcome to our analysis of the EURUSD currency pair. We'll be examining the price actions captured on a 1-day (1D) candlestick chart, as well as a longer-term 6-month (6M) candlestick chart. On the 1D chart to the left, we can observe the trajectory of the Euro over the past year. The currency endured a steady decline throughout last year, eventually settling at a low around the 0.95 mark. However, in 2023, we witnessed a corrective rally that saw the Euro rebound to the 38.20% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, with the latter being tested twice. The current price action exhibits a certain level of neutrality, as corroborated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the 45 mark, which is typically interpreted as neutral. As we look to the week ahead, continuous upward momentum could potentially propel the Euro to revisit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which lies around the 1.127 mark. Transitioning to the 6M chart on the right, we see a broader picture that is quite revealing. The RSI trend over the decades has primarily been bearish, suggesting a persistent weakness in the Euro. This bearish divergence, characterized by the price reaching a high in 2008 while the RSI was recording lower highs, could indicate a lack of robustness and stability in the Euro. The implication of this analysis is not immediately clear but serves as an important consideration for investors. On this 6M chart, we've also highlighted the 61.8% Fibonacci level in yellow, which has acted as both a support and resistance level for the Euro multiple times over the past decades. This level demonstrates significant strength, and it could very likely be revisited in the upcoming weeks. Turning our attention to the fundamental aspect of this analysis, it's crucial to consider the latest news surrounding the Euro and European politics. It's been noted that the Eurozone's attempts to diversify its energy sources away from Russia will continue to face challenges due to unresolved geopolitical issues with the Kremlin into 2023. The threat of a complete cessation of Russian natural gas exports to Europe remains a significant risk. Also, despite Germany entering a recession, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still expected to raise interest rates further. The anticipation of more interest rate hikes by the ECB in the coming months is creating an expectation buffer for the EUR/USD pair, limiting any significant depreciating moves​. In conclusion, while the technical analysis presents a mid/short-term mixed outlook for the Euro, the undercurrents of the fundamental analysis provide additional depth to our understanding. Keep in mind that markets are dynamic and subject to change, and this analysis should be used as a guide rather than a guarantee. As always, it is recommended to use this information in conjunction with your own research and risk tolerance. Happy trading!
by bonsai_trade
SHORT EURUSD (Monthly Timeframe)EURUSD on the monthly timeframe is bearish and its downtrend channel and heading back to parity or below parity levels. The current month's close will form a bearish engulfing pattern, a retest of the double top neckline, and a failure to close above the resistance (supply zone) at area 1.09-1.10. which confirms its next possible leg down movement continuation to the next support (demand) zone at area 1.03-1.04 and a break of such level, next levels are to the previous low 0.95 and to the new low at the lower monthly downtrend channel at the level 0.90.
Short
by WaelHaz
2
EURUSD Weekly Forecast | 29th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop Last week, notably the German Flash Manufacturing PMI and French Flash Services PMI dropped a lot causing the EUR to weaken. This week there's only the German Prelim CPI m/m which is also expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%. This will cause the EUR to weaken further. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance level at 1.07350 Next support at 1.05340 Idea We could see the EUR drop towards the support at 1.05340 by the end of the week. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
We will never see such prices for European stocks again...European indices have been reddening for several days in a row. European Euro Stoxx 50 fell only -3% from the high, but this is just the beginning of a big drop and I will tell you why. Since the beginning of year, European indices have shown very good growth, which is not entirely supported by fundamental factors. Yesterday, on the channel, I already drew attention to the difficult situation in the German industry (the German economy is already in recession and will only deepen into it), but this did not prevent DAX from updating its historical maximum! It is very strange, because Germany is still famous for its industry, and not for the IT sector... Now the technical picture says that there are serious reasons to believe that the growth in European markets has come to an end. There are serious signs that the French TVC:CAC40 index has reversed. There were large sales in the shares of the leaders. Someone "big" got out of the market. Today the decline continued. Do not forget that inflation in Europe is higher than in the US, which means that the ECB will raise the rate even more and even more choke the economy, which can not stand it now! While in the US they are already talking about a pause in raising the rate. The chances of a return to the highs are melting right before our eyes. TVC:SX5E are doomed to fall… 🔰 My recommendation: If you have European shares - sell them. Then say thank you for saved capital. You can find even more useful analytics in header of my profile 🎩 If you are interested in analysis for other assets - write in the comments which asset you need to see.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by Dorado_Crypto
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ... ... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.) Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia. As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships . Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments. As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ... ... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.) So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.) ... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
10
XNGUSD ready to reverse recent downtrend LONGOn the daily chart here XNGUSD had a head and shoulders or double top last summer and fall and has now trended down to support. I see this as a prime place to take a long position. The decline of the overvalued USD contributes to this idea as does the persistent demand in Europe for compressed / liquid NG and the ongoing war there that could eventually grind into WWIII. ETFs such as BOIL , UNG and UNL may be a good way to make this trade if not in the forex market.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
Quality is back in focus, amidst the banking turmoilHistory never repeats itself, but it often does rhyme. The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in the US and the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS have triggered concerns of contagion across the global financial system. The current stress in the banking sector is reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. However, unlike the 2008 financial crisis, uncertainty is not centred on the quality of assets on bank balance sheets but instead on the potential for deposit flight. Tough ride for Banks ahead US regional banks have witnessed significant deposit outflows which, combined with unrealised losses on their security holdings, have seen banks consuming their liquid assets as a very fast pace. In turn, sentiment towards European banks has deteriorated. This is evident in the widening of debt risk premia, making it more expensive for banks to fund their operations. It’s important to note that banks were already tightening lending standards prior to recent events. So, lending conditions are likely to tighten further as deposits shrink at small and regional US banks and regulators respond to the new risk environment. The turn of events in the banking sector have led to higher uncertainty which is likely to be reflected in higher volatility in credit markets. So far, the impact on other sectors has been fairly contained, but a further deterioration of bank credit quality could drag other industries lower as well. We are still in the early innings, so the range of repercussions remains wide. Traditional defensive sectors offer more protection in prior weakening credit cycles On analysing the impact of a further rise (by 200Bps) in credit spreads on US and European debt (highlighted by the dark blue bars) we found that not all equity sectors will be impacted equally on the downside. In fact, traditional defensive sectors like utilities, consumer staples and healthcare could offer some protection in comparison to cyclical sectors such as banks, energy and real estate. Since March 8, 2023, the steepest price corrections have been centred around the banking and commodity related sectors such as energy and materials, while technology, healthcare, consumer staples and utilities have managed to escape the rout illustrated by the grey bars. The historical sector performance (in the light blue bars) during Eurozone debt crisis (the second half of 2011), confirm a similar pattern whereby the traditional defensive sectors tend to shield investors when spreads widen. Europe earnings hold forth despite the banking turmoil Interestingly despite the recent banking turmoil, the global earnings revision ratio continued to show resilience in March. Europe stood out as the only region with more upgrades than downgrades. Earnings remain the key driver of equity market performance. Europe has clearly gotten off to a strong start and it will be interesting to see if European earnings expectations can hold up as credit conditions deteriorate. Within Europe we analysed the sectors that were most exposed to the banking stress. By observing the beta of the sectors in the EuroStoxx 600 Index relative to regional banking spreads, we found that real estate, financials, industrials, materials, and energy were most exposed on the downside to the high banking stress. On the contrary, consumer staples, information technology, utilities and healthcare showed more resilience. When the going gets tough, quality gets going Investors should focus on companies with strong balance sheets which we often tend to find within the quality factor. Quality stocks, characterised by a higher earnings yield compared to its dividend yield alongside higher return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA), would offer a higher margin of safety in periods of higher volatility. Conclusion While central banks in US, Europe and UK continued their hawkish stance at their most recent policy-setting meetings, the evolving banking crisis could alter the path for monetary policy ahead. Chair Powell conceded that tightening financial conditions could have the same impact as another quarter point rate hike or more from the Fed. Given the rising concerns on the risk of banking industry contagion, shrinking corporate profits and central bank policy ahead we continue to believe that positioning your equity exposure towards the quality factor would be prudent.
FRED:BAMLH0A3HYC
by aneekaguptaWTE