EURUSD Analysis Using Horizontal Support Resistance at 1.03488EURUSD currency market is still bearish. Watch for sell signals below price level 1.03488. || ||
Pin Bar formed at price level 1.03488 on October 9, 1989.
Horizontal Level is both support and resistance at level 1.03488 beginning in May 1999 and ending in January 2000.
Major price move on December 30, 2002 from price level 1.03488.
Multiple touches at price level 1.03488 from December 19, 2016 to January 2, 2017.
Price level 1.03488 is both support and resistance in year 2022.
Europe
wizz air 4hr for the aviation industry im bullish, making a good pandemic recovery, The aviation market is anticipated to register a CAGR of over 5% during the forecast period (2022 - 2027). it is expected to take 2-3 years to recover completely. However, the return of the Boeing 737MAX into service and the recovery in domestic demand helped the OEMs in obtaining more orders and increasing aircraft deliveries in 2021.
EURO USD LONG EUR/USD LONG TO 1,35
As per technical side SANK as per 1M Stoch RSI.
That factor will certainly prevail which will cause stronger EUR and regaining the ratio in a favor of EU currency.
*MACD. multy cross on 1W
*1M KDJ bottomed.
*RSI hit the bottom on 1M timeframe.
Strong EURO will make Europe less competitive and leading towards implosion in certain timeframe (strong currency, bigger export prices, unable to " compete" and participate "under same conditions".
ECB made 2 stimulation packages in an amount of 500 bn + 250 bn euros in order to increase liquity.
US added few trillions too, now continualy increases interest rates.
As every other stornger economy, Europe will become less competitive, (gas price is 3000$) and so on.
Petro dollar benefits from this, but, eventualy, US economy will collide and EU will follow.
How long will EUR/USD parity last? After the EURUSD reached and broke below parity, an analysis of the situation is in order.
Last week, the euro failed to close above 1.0320 and the 50-Day Moving Average, presenting a potential bull trap and setting up the opportunity for short sellers, as illustrated by the orange circle.
Although the pair broke below the parity on August 22, a decent pullback is on the table, as investors become uncomfortable with the unusual valuation of the pair. One only has to look back to July 14, to witness the pullback in the EUR/USD after an intraday probing of the parity level.
Bears should remember that we might still be in the middle of a downward leg. So, the medium-term decline may extend to new depths. 0.9900 has already been tested and rejected but a more granular look at the candles might be necessary at this point.
The intraday battle
The EUR/USD spent most of its time consolidating below parity, organizing near 0.9930, before the London opening and strong European data was released.
On the hourly chart, you can see the first of the two big blue candles forming after consumer confidence in the Euro Area rose by 2.1 points in August, from a record low of -27 in July. Consumer confidence was expected to slide further into negative territory, so the upwards revision came as a surprise to the markets.
Two subsequent hourly candle wicks broke above parity to test the staying power of a below-parity EUR/USD. For now, Support is building below 0.9960. In the short term, the market might need to work a lot to take out buyers at 0.9900.
Could a short or long term bottom be in for EURUSD?The situation is very tricky as Europe's condition worsens. As the global economy is in a depression, the USD could keep going higher and higher, especially as the world faces more problems than the US.
In his tread, Marko Papic outlines very eloquently why he thinks the European situation isn't as bad as many think, and he could be right. I am not as optimistic as he is, but there is a chance that the market has bottomed with the sweep of the previous low and the close above it. Even if it hasn't, it provides a nice setup for the short term long. The EURUSD parity is a fundamental psychological level where we could see a lot of chops before it goes either direction.
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Personally I think Red path wins here.Opinion:
- Biden inflation pivot ahead of mid-terms
BIDEN: WE ARE SEEING PROGRESS ON GASOLINE PRICE REDUCTIONS AND INFLATION.
- FOMC minutes announcing 50bps or lower futures hikes to
"Gauge the effect of previous hikes"
- Mid-terms nearing and political funding needs
- E.U cost of living crisis/ German PPI @ 37% / Continued conflict in Ukraine & commodities crisis
GERMAN PPI YOY ACTUAL 37.2% (FORECAST 31.8%, PREVIOUS 32.7%) $MACRO
With these factors in mind and an acknowledgement that we do need more QT and hikes; all the while, taking into account that any further tightening will place us on a 3rd quarter of negative GDP growth. It is my opinion that instead the political needs will be more important. This makes me think that the E.U in the name of self-preservation will subsidize house-holds, while increasing barriers to debt over winter. ("Controlled" inflationary action). U.S should as announced by the FOMC minutes go through a period of hike stabilization (Re-instating stability in the procurement of structured leverage / Inflation action)
From here I see 2 option:
1. Politics forcing us into hyper-inflation and bitcoin aswell as other assets experience a fast recovery.
2. Politics forcing us into hyper-inflation and bitcoin aswell as other assets experience a short lived fast recovery. (A.K.A tightening and QT break). Lasting possibly until the end of the mid-terms.
What I do not think is possible:
A return to BTC sub 9k when inflation is running high.
What to keep in mind:
Inflation comes second to job market.
Recession/Depression is a much worse evil than inflation.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 (S1-S3) and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
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SHORT EURUSDJust an idea and trade at your own risk.
EURUSD still in downtrend on all timeframes.
EURUSD finished its correction phase and broke the bearish flag on the daily timeframe and the uptrend correction uptrend on the 4H timeframe.
Also past weekly candlestick closed reversal and this week already broke past week low.
Next targets in this month are to new lows and possibly to area 0.97-0.98.
All analysis based on the daily attached timeframes.
SHORT EURUSDJust an idea and trade at your own risk.
EURUSD remains bearish on all timeframes.
EURUSD is forming on the daily timeframe a bearish flag and nearing the end of its correction with potentially reaching the upper downtrend channel at 1.03-1.04,
A break of the bearish flag, will confirm its downtrend continuation and into the downtrend channel bottom line at level 0.97-0.98 as next targets.
💵Euro/U.S.Dollar💵 Analyze (Short term)!!!EURO completed Main wave 4 by Expanding Ending Diagonal in the resistance zone.
if you want to look at the road map of Euro/U.S.Dollar, please look at 👇
🔅Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD ) Timeframe 15min⏰
🔴Resistance Zone🔴: 1.028$ until 1.025$
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
💵Euro/U.S.Dollar💵 Analyze!!Euro is moving in Descending channel and makes the Double Three Correction(WXY) for completing the main wave B.
I expect that Euro will go down to the Support zone. And then it goes up to the Resistance zone & Important Resistance line.
🔅Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD ) Timeframe 1H⏰
🔴Resistance Zone🔴: 1.028$ until 1.025$
🟢Support Zone🟢:1.0079$ until 1.0068$
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
2022/7/28 11:59 EUR/JPY analyse
Pivot Point: 137.6
Currently: Consolidating at this 138.6 level , its next support zone is at 139.8
Reaction: Resisted at 137.31 and retraced back to 136.75
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EUROPE is going to enter into recession soonThe closer the winter, the stronger Russia leverages against Europe become.
Main one being natural gas.
Europe imports 90% of it's gas and Russia was importing 40% of it. Prices were much cheaper than LNG since it was transferred through pipes.
Now, the biggest gas pipeline in Europe - Nord Stream is getting used by Russia as a weapon against European countries. By cutting supply to 20% of pipeline's power, Russia expects Europe to stop supporting Ukraine in it's attempt to defend the country. Surely, Russia plans to cut it completely in the near future when it will damage European economies the most.
Compare this year prices with 2021 and you will be terrified because it grew more than 10 times. And remember that during summer natural gas prices are the cheapest. As winter approaches and when Nord Stream will shut down completely we can easily double in price.
More than 25% of German businesses say they are considering temporary or complete shutdown. Already more than 8% of heavy industry in Germany were put on hold since factories stop being profitable because of increased manufacturing costs.
Bottom line: Fundamentally natural gas prices will grow and European economies will suffer.
By following fundamental analysis lets look at technical:
We updated historical highs, but that was false breakout. It's wise to look for continuation of bullish trend, that's why I draw 2 scenarios.
1. From current price we approach top of the false breakout and after some range push higher.
2. We will be in range for a couple days, using bottom trendline as support. Closer to the end of formation we will squeeze to the previous level and break through it.
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P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Fading rallies in EURGBPEURGBP - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.8475 (stop at 0.8505)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 0.8390 and 0.8325
Resistance: 0.8460 / 0.8600 / 0.8720
Support: 0.8325 / 0.8200 / 0.8060
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Euro (EUR) vs The Dollar (USD) Goes Nuclear, A 20 Years EventWe have parity between the Euro and US Dollar for the first time in 20 years, something completely unexpected but it is happening now as the world changes and evolves.
This month took the EURUSD to a long-term support that based on technical analysis can lead to a pullback before prices continue to drop.
The current EURUSD bear market has been going for 5113 days/170 months or a little over 14 years.
I can't really say about timing but a pullback is due based on the technicals...
On a pullback, the main target/resistance is the counter-trendline, plotted here in blue named "Falling trendline".
Another possible scenario is straight down before a recovery shows up.
Chart:
Nuclear war?
Namaste.
EURUSD - CHOPPY!EURUSD
CPI print came out higher, we had bearish movement of EUR but we covered that before end of the day and now re-testing those support lows again break of these area then yes we have further bearish movement and I expect the next support areas to come swiftly in control BUT if we stay above these support areas and re-test out of those highs I expect short term bullish movement.
Keep in mind the fundamentals:
FEDs soon to go on black out and we have ECB next week. Now ECB they always behind, lag very much they do but could they do 1 hike rate? I mean sure recession is on the table can't really rule that out globally so overall we could be choppy until clear direction of ECB but overall DXY looks over done and when you keep an eye on 10's etc on yields it's inverting overall and that's where you've seen recession trade idea which was on my week ahead out look that can be seen via my trading view account links on YT - I stated very clearly CRUDE WTI its a recession trade, goes down less demand etc.
Patience is key!
TJ
BUY EURUSDJust an idea and trade at your own risk.
EURUSD remains bearish on the monthly timeframe with possible next target to the monthly lower downtrend channel at area 0.90.
EURUSD on the daily timeframe reached the lower downtrend channel (white lines) at parity.
Correction may be under way to the previous broken support and demand zone area (currently resistance and supply zone) at 1.0360-1.0400.